DVC point balancing 2022 vs 2021

[zavandor]

Disboards 3 - 0 DVCMC

 

[sethschroeder]

They won't even admit that they made a mistake, much less give us a full accounting of what happened and why. Not happening with this DVC. I'd be shocked if they ever mention it again other than repeating what they've already mentioned (which was just gibberish).

That's fine it will just change how I approach issues in the future.

 

[DisneyOutsider]

Disboards 3 - 0 DVCMC

In my opinion, we aren't winning.. all we've done is even the score.. again. We haven't gained anything. It's no skin off DVC's bum. They might as well try and try until they get away with it.

 

[zavandor]

In my opinion, we aren't winning.. all we've done is even the score.. again. We haven't gained anything. It's no skin off DVC's bum. They might as well try and try until they get away with it.

If we didn't do anything, they would have gotten away with all those things. Against all odds, a few people complaining succeeded to make a big corporation to rollback changes. I'll take that as a victory.

Anyone who called DVC for this has earned the Notorious 24™ badge of honour

 

[DisneyOutsider]

If we didn't do anything, they would have gotten away with all those things. Against all odds, a few people complaining succeeded to make a big corporation to rollback changes. I'll take that as a victory.

Anyone who called DVC for this has earned the Notorious 24™ badge of honour

I agree we can consider it a victory that we didn't lose.. but that doesn't mean that we're winning, per se.

All I'm trying to say is that it's BS that we're in this match to begin with. Shouldn't happen.

 

[zavandor]

It would be great if the DVC Show makes a special episode about those "3 Epic Fails". They show a pattern and the most members know about them the better. If there is more awareness, it's more unlikely that they try something shady again.

 

[Flynn's Gal]

It would be great if the DVC Show makes a special episode about those "3 Epic Fails". They show a pattern and the most members know about them the better. If there is more awareness, it's more unlikely that they try something shady again.

I agree with this so that what happened is documented in another platform.

 

[JETSDAD]

Your math is off. The entire month of September was lowered for standard view and bungalows - not just the 11 days moved from the second travel period to the first.

Ok, I think the overall change is more like 15,276 for Poly once the change for the first 19 days is accounted for. While this is still higher than previous totals posted it's much closer to the norm. I'll let someone else run things through a spreadsheet to see if we can find the overall change.

 

[CarolynFH]

DVCNews.com has a nice analysis HERE.

 

[Leight19]

It would be great if the DVC Show makes a special episode about those "3 Epic Fails". They show a pattern and the most members know about them the better. If there is more awareness, it's more unlikely that they try something shady again.

What are the 3? I assume it’s referring to this and the previous lock off premium for point charts. Is the 3rd a reference to aulani dues or is there a 3rd point inflation I overlooked?

 

[drusba]

There are two questions I do not know the answer to yet concerning the new point charts. Do the total points really come near to what they would be in a base year? And has DVC shifted points from 1BRs and 2BRs to studios, making studios more point expensive than they were with the 5-season chart while making 1BRs and 2BRs less point expensive?

Under the 7-season point chart structure, the reason total points would almost always be higher than what they should be in a base year was the annual change in the date for Easter. DVC chose a base year, 2035, when Easter is at its earliest, March 25. So that is the year when total points applicable to the resort equal what it would take to reserve all rooms for all nights in a 365-day year. However, the 7-season point charts are set up so that the two Easter weeks will always have the same total points (the Sunday before through Easter Sunday is in season 7 and the Mon through Sat after Easter is in season 6). Where the variance occurs is other times in March and April. All days in those months before the Easter weeks are in season 6 and all days after the Easter weeks are in season 5. In the 2035 base year, that means all 30 days of April will be in lower point season 5, while only March 1 through 16 is in season 6 (other than part of the Easter weeks). As Easter moves from year to year later than March 25 (which will occur 48 of the next 50 years), the number of days in April that are in season 5 will always be less than those in the base year, and the number of days in March and first half of April that are in season 6 will be more than the base year. In fact, in 2038, Easter will be at its latest, April 25, and March 1 through April 17 will be in season 6 and no days at all will be in season 5.

The change DVC has made to 2022 is not likely the permanent solution since it does not deal with the real problem of having total points in a year change due to DVC’s decision to have total points rise in many years due to the annual change of the Easter Date. However, one hopes that the change made at least rectifies the issue for 2022 by lowering total points to a total that is very close to what they otherwise would have been in 2035 if no changes had been made to the 7-season chart. I do not know if anyone is doing the totals but the comparison that is needed for each resort is whether the total points under the new 2022 charts is close to the same as they would be in 2035 under the 7-seaoon chart structure that existed before the change. I see comparisons being made to 2021, but that provides incomplete information since Easter was April 4 in 2021 and thus that year itself has too many total points.

It is hard to tell by just looking if the new 2022-point chart made a sufficient correction. Outside of the two Easter weeks, the original 2022 chart, with Easter on April 17, has 40 days in March and April in season 6 and only 7 days in April in season 5, while the 2035 base year has only 17 days in March in season 6 and 30 days in April in season 5. In essence, in 2022, there are 22 more days in March and April that are in season 6 than in season 5 in comparison to the base year.

The September change in the new charts moves only 11-days from season 2 to season 1. So to make up the difference to get to a base year total, it would seem the total points changes would need to be at least double what the difference otherwise is between season 6 and season 5 for that March and April period. I cannot tell whether that has occurred. Also, there seems to be something else going on, which may indicate that DVC may be using this as an opportunity to move points from 1BRs and 2BRs to studios. For a number of the resorts, the nightly points needed for 1BRs and 2BRs have been significantly lowered in season 1 (sometimes just the preferred category) while the point totals needed for studios in season 1 remained the same (with Poly, which has no 1BRs or 2BRs being the exception by lowering standard studios). That raises the following possible scenario: (a) the 7-seasons charts in 2022 had far too many total points for all rooms; (b) that has partially been corrected by moving 11-days from season 2 to season 1; (c) however that still left 2022 well above the total in the 2035 base year for each sized room; (d) a second correction thus occurred to lower total points by reducing the points needed in season 1 for many 1BRs and 2BRs but no such correction was done for studios; (e) giving the possible result that total points for the resort have been corrected to that base year level, but leaving studios higher that what they otherwise should be. In other words, DVC, through the creation of the 7-season chart and now its correction, may have successfully done what it attempted with the original 2020-point charts – raised total points for the year needed to reserve all studios. I have not done the math on this and that is not really my bailiwick, so I cannot currently confirm the issue. However, the lowering of season 1 studio points for Poly, which has no 1BRs or 2BRs, indicates such a lowering was necessary to restore points to close to a base year level, but at the resorts with 1BRs and 2BRs, the point reductions instead were made only for those rooms and not studios.

 

[zapple]

There are two questions I do not know the answer to yet concerning the new point charts. Do the total points really come near to what they would be in a base year? And has DVC shifted points from 1BRs and 2BRs to studios, making studios more point expensive than they were with the 5-season chart while making 1BRs and 2BRs less point expensive?

Under the 7-season point chart structure, the reason total points would almost always be higher than what they should be in a base year was the annual change in the date for Easter. DVC chose a base year, 2035, when Easter is at its earliest, March 25. So that is the year when total points applicable to the resort equal what it would take to reserve all rooms for all nights in a 365-day year. However, the 7-season point charts are set up so that the two Easter weeks will always have the same total points (the Sunday before through Easter Sunday is in season 7 and the Mon through Sat after Easter is in season 6). Where the variance occurs is other times in March and April. All days in those months before the Easter weeks are in season 6 and all days after the Easter weeks are in season 5. In the 2035 base year, that means all 30 days of April will be in lower point season 5, while only March 1 through 16 is in season 6 (other than part of the Easter weeks). As Easter moves from year to year later than March 25 (which will occur 48 of the next 50 years), the number of days in April that are in season 5 will always be less than those in the base year, and the number of days in March and first half of April that are in season 6 will be more than the base year. In fact, in 2038, Easter will be at its latest, April 25, and March 1 through April 17 will be in season 6 and no days at all will be in season 5.

The change DVC has made to 2022 is not likely the permanent solution since it does not deal with the real problem of having total points in a year change due to DVC’s decision to have total points rise in many years due to the annual change of the Easter Date. However, one hopes that the change made at least rectifies the issue for 2022 by lowering total points to a total that is very close to what they otherwise would have been in 2035 if no changes had been made to the 7-season chart. I do not know if anyone is doing the totals but the comparison that is needed for each resort is whether the total points under the new 2022 charts is close to the same as they would be in 2035 under the 7-seaoon chart structure that existed before the change. I see comparisons being made to 2021, but that provides incomplete information since Easter was April 4 in 2021 and thus that year itself has too many total points.

It is hard to tell by just looking if the new 2022-point chart made a sufficient correction. Outside of the two Easter weeks, the original 2022 chart, with Easter on April 17, has 40 days in March and April in season 6 and only 7 days in April in season 5, while the 2035 base year has only 17 days in March in season 6 and 30 days in April in season 5. In essence, in 2022, there are 22 more days in March and April that are in season 6 than in season 5 in comparison to the base year.

The September change in the new charts moves only 11-days from season 2 to season 1. So to make up the difference to get to a base year total, it would seem the total points changes would need to be at least double what the difference otherwise is between season 6 and season 5 for that March and April period. I cannot tell whether that has occurred. Also, there seems to be something else going on, which may indicate that DVC may be using this as an opportunity to move points from 1BRs and 2BRs to studios. For a number of the resorts, the nightly points needed for 1BRs and 2BRs have been significantly lowered in season 1 (sometimes just the preferred category) while the point totals needed for studios in season 1 remained the same (with Poly, which has no 1BRs or 2BRs being the exception by lowering standard studios). That raises the following possible scenario: (a) the 7-seasons charts in 2022 had far too many total points for all rooms; (b) that has partially been corrected by moving 11-days from season 2 to season 1; (c) however that still left 2022 well above the total in the 2035 base year for each sized room; (d) a second correction thus occurred to lower total points by reducing the points needed in season 1 for many 1BRs and 2BRs but no such correction was done for studios; (e) giving the possible result that total points for the resort have been corrected to that base year level, but leaving studios higher that what they otherwise should be. In other words, DVC, through the creation of the 7-season chart and now its correction, may have successfully done what it attempted with the original 2020-point charts – raised total points for the year needed to reserve all studios. I have not done the math on this and that is not really my bailiwick, so I cannot currently confirm the issue. However, the lowering of season 1 studio points for Poly, which has no 1BRs or 2BRs, indicates such a lowering was necessary to restore points to close to a base year level, but at the resorts with 1BRs and 2BRs, the point reductions instead were made only for those rooms and not studios.

The BW charts illustrate what you’re saying perfectly. Check out this OLD ‘22 point chart (1st attachment) and if you compare to the new one (2nd attachment) you can see how they lowered the weekly cost of a standard studio for a week by 2 points for those 11 days, but lowered the weekly cost of a standard one bedroom by 22 points a week for those 11 days. So they’re still using this as a way to raise relative studio costs.

 

[zavandor]

What are the 3? I assume it’s referring to this and the previous lock off premium for point charts. Is the 3rd a reference to aulani dues or is there a 3rd point inflation I overlooked?

The third is the issue with the tax refunds for resale contracts. It didn't get much attention but it is quite disconcerting. For years DVC had kept for themselves that tax refund for contracts that were sold resale instead of refunding them to new purchasers. It's just a few dollars per contract sold, but it can add up.

 

[New Mouse]

The BW charts illustrate what you’re saying perfectly. Check out this OLD ‘22 point chart (1st attachment) and if you compare to the new one (2nd attachment) you can see how they lowered the weekly cost of a standard studio for a week by 2 points for those 11 days, but lowered the weekly cost of a standard one bedroom by 22 points a week for those 11 days. So they’re still using this as a way to raise relative studio costs.

I have no issue with this as 1brs are currently extremely out of whack pricing wise.

 

[mgarbowski]

I have no issue with this as 1brs are currently extremely out of whack pricing wise.

Agreed. There is a tension between the members who prefer/need low studio point charts to use their membership at all, and the rest who want better balance between different room types, both to improve studio availability, and make 1 BRs more affordable. I sympathize with the first group, but the point charts need to be properly balanced to manage demand between the various room types.

 

[Grumpy by Birth]

The third is the issue with the tax refunds for resale contracts. It didn't get much attention but it is quite disconcerting. For years DVC had kept for themselves that tax refund for contracts that were sold resale instead of refunding them to new purchasers. It's just a few dollars per contract sold, but it can add up.

 

[RoseGold]

Against all odds, a few people complaining succeeded to make a big corporation to rollback changes. I'll take that as a victory.

It's not like we complained about hot dog prices and they cut the price a couple bucks. We are owners. This is our corporation. It's supposed to be working in OUR interests from the jump.

 

[mdembko]

There are two questions I do not know the answer to yet concerning the new point charts. Do the total points really come near to what they would be in a base year? And has DVC shifted points from 1BRs and 2BRs to studios, making studios more point expensive than they were with the 5-season chart while making 1BRs and 2BRs less point expensive?

Under the 7-season point chart structure, the reason total points would almost always be higher than what they should be in a base year was the annual change in the date for Easter. DVC chose a base year, 2035, when Easter is at its earliest, March 25. So that is the year when total points applicable to the resort equal what it would take to reserve all rooms for all nights in a 365-day year. However, the 7-season point charts are set up so that the two Easter weeks will always have the same total points (the Sunday before through Easter Sunday is in season 7 and the Mon through Sat after Easter is in season 6). Where the variance occurs is other times in March and April. All days in those months before the Easter weeks are in season 6 and all days after the Easter weeks are in season 5. In the 2035 base year, that means all 30 days of April will be in lower point season 5, while only March 1 through 16 is in season 6 (other than part of the Easter weeks). As Easter moves from year to year later than March 25 (which will occur 48 of the next 50 years), the number of days in April that are in season 5 will always be less than those in the base year, and the number of days in March and first half of April that are in season 6 will be more than the base year. In fact, in 2038, Easter will be at its latest, April 25, and March 1 through April 17 will be in season 6 and no days at all will be in season 5.

The change DVC has made to 2022 is not likely the permanent solution since it does not deal with the real problem of having total points in a year change due to DVC’s decision to have total points rise in many years due to the annual change of the Easter Date. However, one hopes that the change made at least rectifies the issue for 2022 by lowering total points to a total that is very close to what they otherwise would have been in 2035 if no changes had been made to the 7-season chart. I do not know if anyone is doing the totals but the comparison that is needed for each resort is whether the total points under the new 2022 charts is close to the same as they would be in 2035 under the 7-seaoon chart structure that existed before the change. I see comparisons being made to 2021, but that provides incomplete information since Easter was April 4 in 2021 and thus that year itself has too many total points.

It is hard to tell by just looking if the new 2022-point chart made a sufficient correction. Outside of the two Easter weeks, the original 2022 chart, with Easter on April 17, has 40 days in March and April in season 6 and only 7 days in April in season 5, while the 2035 base year has only 17 days in March in season 6 and 30 days in April in season 5. In essence, in 2022, there are 22 more days in March and April that are in season 6 than in season 5 in comparison to the base year.

The September change in the new charts moves only 11-days from season 2 to season 1. So to make up the difference to get to a base year total, it would seem the total points changes would need to be at least double what the difference otherwise is between season 6 and season 5 for that March and April period. I cannot tell whether that has occurred. Also, there seems to be something else going on, which may indicate that DVC may be using this as an opportunity to move points from 1BRs and 2BRs to studios. For a number of the resorts, the nightly points needed for 1BRs and 2BRs have been significantly lowered in season 1 (sometimes just the preferred category) while the point totals needed for studios in season 1 remained the same (with Poly, which has no 1BRs or 2BRs being the exception by lowering standard studios). That raises the following possible scenario: (a) the 7-seasons charts in 2022 had far too many total points for all rooms; (b) that has partially been corrected by moving 11-days from season 2 to season 1; (c) however that still left 2022 well above the total in the 2035 base year for each sized room; (d) a second correction thus occurred to lower total points by reducing the points needed in season 1 for many 1BRs and 2BRs but no such correction was done for studios; (e) giving the possible result that total points for the resort have been corrected to that base year level, but leaving studios higher that what they otherwise should be. In other words, DVC, through the creation of the 7-season chart and now its correction, may have successfully done what it attempted with the original 2020-point charts – raised total points for the year needed to reserve all studios. I have not done the math on this and that is not really my bailiwick, so I cannot currently confirm the issue. However, the lowering of season 1 studio points for Poly, which has no 1BRs or 2BRs, indicates such a lowering was necessary to restore points to close to a base year level, but at the resorts with 1BRs and 2BRs, the point reductions instead were made only for those rooms and not studios.

Although the revised 2022 point charts for Poly have shown a significant reduction from the original 2022 (~18,824), it's still quite a bit higher than what the 5 season charts were varying from declared points. For the 5 season charts, if you disregard the two leap years (2016 & 2020), since PVB opened in 2015 there has only been a max difference of 420 points from the declared/sold points, this revised 7 travel period chart has a difference of 2,976. Also, points continue to shift slightly from the Bungalows to the Studios.

I'm not sure if I'm reading correctly the analysis from Chris on DVCNEWS, but it looks like, even though there are large variations in points year to year, the overall annual points needed to book all rooms would be less than the declared points of 4,032,200.

 

[bobbiwoz]

Agreed. There is a tension between the members who prefer/need low studio point charts to use their membership at all, and the rest who want better balance between different room types, both to improve studio availability, and make 1 BRs more affordable. I sympathize with the first group, but the point charts need to be properly balanced to manage demand between the various room types.

Absolutely!!

 

[drusba]

Agreed. There is a tension between the members who prefer/need low studio point charts to use their membership at all, and the rest who want better balance between different room types, both to improve studio availability, and make 1 BRs more affordable. I sympathize with the first group, but the point charts need to be properly balanced to manage demand between the various room types.

This was an issue much discussed on these boards when DVC attempted to raise the points for studios and 1BRs almost year-round in the initial 2020 point charts. Based on the provisions of the DVC Membership Agreement, the Product Understanding summaries DVC provided to purchasers, and other representations made at the time of purchase, particularly in the earlier years, 1990s to the early 2000's, there is a very strong argument that DVC is not legally allowed to move points from one room category (such as a 2BR) to another room category (such as a studio). DVC can respond to "seasonal" changes by lowering points in one season and raising them in another for the same room category but it never reserved the right to correct room-size demand differences by moving points from one room category to another. It is noteworthy that DVC did not actually deny it made those prior representations during the controversy involving those 2020 charts, but instead asserted that it is not bound by prior representations made to purchasers.

Many support the idea of moving points from one room size to another in the hopes that it will lower 1BRs. The problem is that once you concede DVC can legally shift points from one room size to another, you will be inviting exactly what DVC attempted to do in 2020 -- raise points for any room size it felt like raising; in that situation both studios and 1BRs, while lowering them in others. In other words, one should never assume the members' grant of power to DVC to do something will mean it will be used in your favor.

Note, it is true that the modern DVC has moved points before in the last ten years, e.g., it raised points needed for treehouses by 15% year round, while lowering by a a small amount other rooms at SSR. The fact that it was done does not make it legal. The thing is no one sued over such prior changes. But the treehouse fiasco demonstrates how the modern DVC can act if power is conceded. The treehouses originally had the same point cost as 2BRs. DVD sold those treehouse points, partly using the promotion that the purchaser could get the three bedroom treehouse for the same nightly point cost as a 2BR. As soon as the treehouses reached the level of sell-out, DVC raised the nightly points needed by 15%. That is the kind of change you would get if members conceded generally that points could be moved from one room-size to another. You would be expecting a lowering of points needed for something like 1BRs and instead get an increase.