Do you really want to go back to WDW so soon?

[ABE4DISNEY]

Upon disembarking the ship and getting tested, many of the passengers and crew were in the very early stages of asymptomatic infection. Some were not even shedding the virus yet - they tested negative, were released, and days later tested positive. When you follow these "asymptomatic" patients, most of them would develop symptoms of varying severity, before they reach the eventual outcome (recovery or death).

Thanks, TraderSam, for pointing out the fiscal year--you are correct! I edited my initial post.

Mumof4mice, is there an official record of this? I'm not disputing what you are saying and honestly what you explained has crossed my mind, but I have yet to see any follow up data on the cruise ship asymptomatic data. Also, I am still seeing that 20-50% number for no symptoms. I have not seen your percentages of 3-5%. Could you please share your source because that is not what is coming through our data. Thanks!

Everything we are seeing is pointing towards testing for those antibodies. Those individuals can return to society and life can resume--which probably is a key towards the 50% capacity predicted for 2021 at WDW.

 

[Mousewerks]

Everything we are seeing is pointing towards testing for those antibodies. Those individuals can return to society and life can resume--which probably is a key towards the 50% capacity predicted for 2021 at WDW.

Really? You have to be tested for an antibody before you can 'return to society'? Can I have your papers sir? I thought this was America.

 

[ABE4DISNEY]

Really? You have to be tested for an antibody before you can 'return to society'? Can I have your papers sir? I thought this was America.

No, I am not saying that at all—I am absolutely not suggesting anything mandated. I would be totally against that.

I am simply saying that as more tests become available and people discover they have already had it or have the antibodies, the fear will subside and they will quit sheltering in place and resume normal everyday activities.

 

[Mousewerks]

No, I am not saying that at all—I am absolutely not suggesting anything mandated. I would be totally against that.

I am simply saying that as more tests become available and people discover they have already had it or have the antibodies, the fear will subside and they will quit sheltering in place and resume normal everyday activities.

Okay, sorry for the response. It's just that everywhere I turn these days people are advocating loss of our freedoms as Americans due to a cold virus. Fear is dispersed by education. Education is admittedly hard to come by these days when it seems the media is only interested in their ratings. There are outlets though that can be found fairly easily which should dispel any fear of the unknown.

 

[ABE4DISNEY]

No worries. I totally get where you are coming from.

 

[Mumof4mice]

Thanks, TraderSam, for pointing out the fiscal year--you are correct! I edited my initial post.

Mumof4mice, is there an official record of this? I'm not disputing what you are saying and honestly what you explained has crossed my mind, but I have yet to see any follow up data on the cruise ship asymptomatic data. Also, I am still seeing that 20-50% number for no symptoms. I have not seen your percentages of 3-5%. Could you please share your source because that is not what is coming through our data. Thanks!

Everything we are seeing is pointing towards testing for those antibodies. Those individuals can return to society and life can resume--which probably is a key towards the 50% capacity predicted for 2021 at WDW.

I've been following the Taiwanese response to Covid-19 with interest. Free testing is widely available, and they extensively contact trace and test (very few community transmission cases, meaning few cases are missed). Cases are followed to the end - anyone testing positive (with or without symptoms) is immediately hospitalized and only discharged when seronegative. Taiwan was reporting about 3% asymptomatic patients (when they had 50 confirmed cases), currently around 5% (380 confirmed cases, mostly citizens returning to Taiwan from US and Europe). Singapore was quoting around 6%.

Newly released China numbers, if you trust china , is 4.4% asymptomatic. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/...irus-cases-could-help-world-response-n1173896

The take home message is Covid-19 can be spread by people before they become symptomatic. But don't expect to breeze through the illness with no symptom, because that is the exception, not the norm.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-new...n-van-der-burgh-battling-coronavirus-n1166961
I would hazard a guess Van Der Burgh has huge lungs. Not going to put my elderly father at risk, or chance putting my puny heart and lungs through the test, if I can help it.

 

[Louie7080]

Deaths for March 2020 LOWER than past 4 years.

"According to the CDC’s website, in March 2020 there were a total of 193,000 deaths in the US. The average number of deaths in the US for March over the four years prior to 2020 (2016 – 2019) is 227,000. The difference between this year and the average for the past four years is 34,000. 2020 deaths are 85% of the average of the prior four years."

editing to add:
"Top ten causes of death in US in 2017:
Heart disease: 647,457
Cancer: 599,108
Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
Diabetes: 83,564
Influenza and pneumonia: 55,672
Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis: 50,633
Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173
Only two of those should be potentially positively affected (less deaths) from quarantine. Accidental deaths and influenza."

 

[TraderSamWDW]

One thing that Disney could really do to help the situation is to build a fifth gate, people would be able to spread out a lot more.

(I know that, at best, a fifth gate was a blip on the outer edge of their radar, and given the current cash situation it isnt even that anymore, but let a person dream)

I did read that Norway and Germany(EPCOT versions) started accepting applications for their cultural representation programs starting in August.

 

[Murron]

Getting back to the original question, my answer is no we will not go back to WDW anytime soon. When a vaccine is developed, I'll think about it. Immunity in people who've had COVID-19 is now giving false/positive test results, so immunity is still uncertain at this point in testing (as of April 9).

We've had two cancellations already. Had to cancel BWV twice! First in September 2019 for Hurricane Dorian, then rescheduled BWV to early May 2020 to use our annual pass before it's May 15 expiration. Cancelled the May trip. Have 375 points that I'll need to use or lose.

We have now booked the Beach Cottage at Vero Beach for September 2020. Pretty sure that will not happen, but booking it gives us a little ray of hope and want to see what Disney will offer (if anything) for members who may lose points. Banking my current years' points to next year. We'll probably take the refund offer that was recently mentioned in a Disney Passholder email on the Annual Pass. ("As an alternative, in lieu of an extension of their passes, Passholders who have paid in full may choose to receive a partial refund for the theme park closure period. Information will be provided soon on how to choose this option.") It's been quite a year!

 

[TexasChick123]

Everyone should do what they feel is right for themselves and their families. I don’t judge anyone if their motivation is doing what they feel is right. As of now, if Disney is open in June, we’ll go on our trip.

Here is an article about all the young (younger than 50) deaths. The headline is daunting, but the information contained within isn’t.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/08/young-people-coronavirus-deaths/?outputType=amp
Takeaways are that as of yesterday morning, 759 people under the age of 50 have died from this. 752 of them had known underlying medical conditions. The other 7 had no known underlying conditions and cannot be posthumously examined through an autopsy because of the risk of spreading the virus.

I know it’s hard, but we’d all do better educating ourselves. The situation in NYC is sad and scary. There’s no debate from me there. Where I diverge from many is in the fact that my DH sees patients in the ER every single day with COVID-19. He works at a level 2 trauma center. 1-2 people are admitted to the hospital or the ICU. Currently, they don’t have any COVID patients in the ICU but have over the course of the last month. Most get some oxygen and are sent home a few days later once they no longer need it. I don’t know why NYC is experiencing it so much worse than here. What I do know is that this virus is very much out and about here, and we aren’t seeing the huge numbers of hospitalizations and deaths. Why? I don’t know. We live in the 4th largest city in the country. Our numbers don’t match predictions. To date, our numbers have been lower than predicted. I have no clue if that will hold, but the surge we kept being told to expect hasn’t come, at least not yet.

I didn’t see this mentioned either. If you test positive for COVID-19 and then drop dead of a heart attack, you’re listed as a COVID death. Also, the CDC released information yesterday that 90% of hospitalized patients from COVID-19 had at least one (most had several) underlying medical conditions. With all that said, every death is still very tragic regardless of how healthy the person was before death. I hope we either achieve herd immunity, come up with an effective treatment, or the vaccine is developed sooner rather than later.

 

[choirfarm]

I know it’s hard, but we’d all do better educating ourselves. The situation in NYC is sad and scary. There’s no debate from me there. Where I diverge from many is in the fact that my DH sees patients in the ER every single day with COVID-19. He works at a level 2 trauma center. 1-2 people are admitted to the hospital or the ICU. Currently, they don’t have any COVID patients in the ICU but have over the course of the last month. Most get some oxygen and are sent home a few days later once they no longer need it. I don’t know why NYC is experiencing it so much worse than here. What I do know is that this virus is very much out and about here, and we aren’t seeing the huge numbers of hospitalizations and deaths. Why? I don’t know. We live in the 4th largest city in the country. Our numbers don’t match predictions. To date, our numbers have been lower than predicted. I have no clue if that will hold, but the surge we kept being told to expect hasn’t come, at least not yet.

This virus is so confusing in so many ways: Asymptomatic carriers, and yes, I do not understand why in some places ( NYC and New Orleans come to mind) it get so incredibly deadly. Other places, not so much. How do you know which one your community will be??

 

[TexasChick123]

This virus is so confusing in so many ways: Asymptomatic carriers, and yes, I do not understand why in some places ( NYC and New Orleans come to mind) it get so incredibly deadly. Other places, not so much. How do you know which one your community will be??

I don’t know if this will make you feel better or not, but New Orleans wasn’t a shock to me as someone whose whole family is from LA. I was born there but raised in Houston. I have a lot of family members in healthcare in LA and more specifically New Orleans. LA leads the nation in heart disease and diabetes. My uncle is a doc in New Orleans and said he was actually surprised that more people didn’t become critically ill or die from COVID knowing the state of his patients’ health on a regular day. :/

I’ll say this again, regardless of someone’s health, every death is sad. I don’t think I’d care what health problems a family member or close friend had if they died from this. I’d just be sad.

 

[Brian Noble]

How many people do you regularly interact with in your workplace or family that have an underlying condition? How many other people might have one that you don't know about? I don't know about anyone else, but I'm not willing to put their lives at risk---even a small one---so that I can go on vacation six months earlier.

 

[Chuck96]

While I agree that travel plans will be dictated by availability of testing and/or a vaccine, my concerns for a near term Disney trip are not just health-related. Disney, as a company, is going to be in a very challenging position from a business perspective. Mr. Chapek was already considered a bottom-line sort of decision maker, and now that instinct will likely be exacerbated. In order to recover financially, I am concerned that Disney is going to minimize expenditures and maximize costs. Disney is already a premium cost experience, and often worth it. But on our last trip it certainly edged up against my “is this worth it” threshold pretty snugly. Costs were up, cast member presence was down, and wait times were quite rough. Individual CMs continued to be great, but it felt like thee were less of them and more of us. And that was when Disney was in great shape financially.

The idea of spending more for less service in the next year or two has me concerned, especially with so many other financial considerations in play. So I’m planning to take a wait and see approach. We were planning on a F&W weekend this fall, but we are planning to forego that in order to see how Park performance recovers.

 

[Ms.Minnie]

I agree WDW needs a 5th gate if they continue to add more rooms to the inventory. We were there this past Jan 2020 and it was the most crowded I have ever seen it at that time of year. It was to the point of not being enjoyable. If this continues and there isn't a satisfactory treatment or vaccine for this virus I don't know how safe it will be to go to WDW.

Our next trip isn't until Jan 2021, at this point I plan to go if they are open but I may change my mind based on how this whole thing plays out over the next few months. I guess like others have said, it's a wait and see.

 

[Sandisw]

This virus is so confusing in so many ways: Asymptomatic carriers, and yes, I do not understand why in some places ( NYC and New Orleans come to mind) it get so incredibly deadly. Other places, not so much. How do you know which one your community will be??

IMO, I think the density of the population is a big factor, I am in CNY and our numbers are not even close to NYC and that area. My DD lives in Manhattan and her normal daily commute via subway is always packed...though she is has been working from home for a month since Broadway shut down.

New Orleans had a population boom with Mardi Gras, which I think played a role in that area.

But, now that social distancing and staying at home is in play, I think that has helped other places not become another NYC

 

[ABE4DISNEY]

I am also wondering whether a lot of the deaths in NYC are in poverty stricken areas.
In our house we have daily conversations with brokers/investors who work in NYC and haven't spoken to ANYONE in the last month who has REMAINED in NYC.
They have all moved out to other homes or are living with relatives in surrounding states.

 

[The Prophet]

I am also wondering whether a lot of the deaths in NYC are in poverty stricken areas.
In our house we have daily conversations with brokers/investors who work in NYC and haven't spoken to ANYONE in the last month who has REMAINED in NYC.
They have all moved out to other homes or are living with relatives in surrounding states.

The number of deaths is a lagging indicator that will start to decrease
Also, I do not trust the numbers that are provided to us

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archi...HswbWyC2bs9pAs0gMpXmxvLIyutIxMPG4Uar8sLKDTOuQ

 

[Simba's Mom]

My DD lives in Manhattan and her normal daily commute via subway is always packed...though she is has been working from home for a month since Broadway shut down.

Our DS used to work in a restaurant in Times Square that was very dependent on the Broadway traffic. Now he's sitting at home, collecting unemployment. But the stories he's told about that (unemployment)! Apparently so many people have filed for unemployment in NYC that the entire system crashed and people were unable to file for weeks. DS was also a freelance musician, knew lots of Broadway musicians, and unfortunately they can't work from home! But like your DD, DS's significant other is able to continue her job, as a speech therapist, from home. But we do worry about them, don't we?

 

[Sandisw]

Our DS used to work in a restaurant in Times Square that was very dependent on the Broadway traffic. Now he's sitting at home, collecting unemployment. But the stories he's told about that (unemployment)! Apparently so many people have filed for unemployment in NYC that the entire system crashed and people were unable to file for weeks. DS was also a freelance musician, knew lots of Broadway musicians, and unfortunately they can't work from home! But like your DD, DS's significant other is able to continue her job, as a speech therapist, from home. But we do worry about them, don't we?

More than anyone can imagine if they aren’t in our shoes, DD is with Disney Theater and we feel blessed today that her job was one not furloughed, even though many in her office will be,

Lets hope in a month from now things there will allow us moms to breathe more easy!