Do you really want to go back to WDW so soon?

[lilypgirl]

That would be helpful, as well as limiting ## in the parks, requiring masks, enforcing social distancing, etc. I have a feeling mask-wearing will become customary for many of us in the long term - in large crowds, on public transportation, in large cities. I live in NYC and even though the areas where I am are deserted, the few people out walking their dogs or getting groceries are virtually all wearing masks. It is actually unusual to see someone out without some form of face covering.



Yes. Wow. Over 700 deaths today, and we were hopeful over the weekend that we were flattening the curve. It is horrifying.


NYC has 10s of thousands of hospital beds, they've converted ORs to multi-person ICUs, and yet the hospitals are overflowing. Please don't be like us. It was clearly in the community here in February, if not earlier, and our local leaders were largely reactionary and reacting weeks too late. Not to say they haven't been doing a good/decent job, but there had also been significant resistance for weeks over taking stricter measures. And now, 3 weeks later ... Healthy and young people here are dying; and it is disproportionately affecting the poor, undocumented and underprivileged.

It is hard to convey what it's like here - everything is surreal.

OP (@pinnocchiosdad ) - I hope you are holding up OK, DH is in healthcare as well - not caring for covid patients yet, as it's been 25 years since he's intubated someone, but he fully expects that will happen in the next 1-2 weeks.

For people disputing the ## - there are inaccuracies and undercounting in all categories. Many deaths at home, waiting for medical assistance, in the hallways of hospitals, are not attributed to Covid if they haven't been tested. There is still a decent % of false negatives, and whether you even have access to get tested depends sadly on your socioeconomic status. My DH was exposed to someone asymptomatic (no fever, nothing) who 2 days later was admitted to the hospital with severe symptoms and who tested positive. Even with all that, my DH was unable to get tested (was told he'd have to have a fever over 100.4 first). Luckily we live in a large enough apartment that he self-quarantined in a separate bedroom with an attached bathroom. The reality when you're living in it is very different from talking about the numbers you read online. NYC has 8 million people. A 1% death rate is 80,000 people. In NYC alone.

As for talking about returning to WDW: We have trips booked at the end of June and end of August. I haven't canceled them yet, because I am holding on to the hope that we will have flattened this curve, but of course that depends on everyone doing their part. If I have to cancel, it will be our own decision whether we think it's safe *enough* for us, and even if we do go, we are for sure going to be wearing masks. I treat as a little bit of hope (and maybe fantasy), but it's nice to think that we will have something pleasant to look forward to when the country starts to open up a little.

Just because today's death toll was so high doesn't mean we aren't flattening the curve.

 

[Grumpy by Birth]

Can we stop talking about COVID-19 in terms of death rate based on infection? Overall number of deaths as a measure of total population is already well above that of influenza. Full stop.

Maybe I'm not understanding the metric you're referring to... assuming the population remains fairly constant over the last year, you're saying that there have been more COVID deaths (not %, but raw number of people who've died) than influenza deaths?

I'm not trying to get into a "it's less deadly than the flu" debate, but I think it's equally problematic to make absolute statements on the other side of the argument that aren't necessarily supported by the data.

COVID deaths are around 12K in the U.S. which is a far lower number than Influenza deaths. Please explain your math before declaring "full stop." Maybe I'm misinterpreting what you mean by "as a measure of the total population."

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Maybe I'm not understanding the metric you're referring to... assuming the population remains fairly constant over the last year, you're saying that there have been more COVID deaths (not %, but raw number of people who've died) than influenza deaths?

I'm not trying to get into a "it's less deadly than the flu" debate, but I think it's equally problematic to make absolute statements on the other side of the argument that aren't necessarily supported by the data.

COVID deaths are around 12K in the U.S. which is a far lower number than Influenza deaths. Please explain your math before declaring "full stop." Maybe I'm misinterpreting what you mean by "as a measure of the total population."

My apologies: WILL be. Right now, we're hovering around 13,000 COVID-19 deaths and climbing. 2018-2019 flu season reporting, which was considered to be moderate, was estimated at 34,200 in the US. Range for influenza deaths is 12-61k depending on severity of season over the last 25 years. Some of it is estimate. We haven't started adding fuzzy numbers to the COVID-19 toll, meaning people who have died but not been attributed to COVID-19.

But the current number will easily triple before estimates are added.

 

[Anal Annie]

I think it's too soon to speculate when Disney will reopen. I don't think it will be any time soon tho. The next 6 weeks will tell us a lot about how fast the virus is still spreading and how many people are dying and give us a better idea when they may re-open. Until every state stops being obstinate and imposes a mandatory stay at home order it's going to delay the final results. I live in the MD / DC area and they're now saying that the Baltimore / DC corridor (including my county) is quickly turning into the next "hot spot". That's not very comforting.

I sure wouldn't be the first one in line at the front gate on day #1 after they re-open. We have a Dec UY and a trip booked for the first week in October, including flights, so we need to decide before the end of July if we want to keep that trip or cancel it and bank the points before it's too late to bank them. If we cancel it then we have to rebook and fly before next March 12th in order to not lose the money we spent with SW. I just hope by July we'll have a good grasp on managing this mess so we can make an informed decision. The constant speculating on when things will improve is driving everyone crazy already.

I have already banked the rest of this years points in case DVC decides to put some new restrictions in place on banking due to the high percentage of others also banking. I'm kicking around the idea of using those recently banked points to book a week for late Feb / early March just in case the availability for that time gets sketchy early on and to have a back-up plan for the SW flights. If we hang onto the Oct trip beyond our July 31st banking window then decide to cancel it later then I'll just deposit the points with RCI and will likely lose the money for the flights. We'd like to go back to Hawai'i again sometime in the next few years so we could use them to attempt a trip to Aulani along with a week on another island since we always island hop anyway. So much uncertainty with EVERYTHING these days. Really don't want to cancel Oct but we will if it's still looking dangerous out there.

 

[Spridell]

Well Christmas party tickets were just released today.

They are going full steam ahead

 

[Ms.Minnie]

I think it's too soon to speculate when Disney will reopen. I don't think it will be any time soon tho. The next 6 weeks will tell us a lot about how fast the virus is still spreading and how many people are dying and give us a better idea when they may re-open. Until every state stops being obstinate and imposes a mandatory stay at home order it's going to delay the final results. I live in the MD / DC area and they're now saying that the Baltimore / DC corridor (including my county) is quickly turning into the next "hot spot". That's not very comforting.

I sure wouldn't be the first one in line at the front gate on day #1 after they re-open. We have a Dec UY and a trip booked for the first week in October, including flights, so we need to decide before the end of July if we want to keep that trip or cancel it and bank the points before it's too late to bank them. If we cancel it then we have to rebook and fly before next March 12th in order to not lose the money we spent with SW. I just hope by July we'll have a good grasp on managing this mess so we can make an informed decision. The constant speculating on when things will improve is driving everyone crazy already.

I have already banked the rest of this years points in case DVC decides to put some new restrictions in place on banking due to the high percentage of others also banking. I'm kicking around the idea of using those recently banked points to book a week for late Feb / early March just in case the availability for that time gets sketchy early on and to have a back-up plan for the SW flights. If we hang onto the Oct trip beyond our July 31st banking window then decide to cancel it later then I'll just deposit the points with RCI and will likely lose the money for the flights. We'd like to go back to Hawai'i again sometime in the next few years so we could use them to attempt a trip to Aulani along with a week on another island since we always island hop anyway. So much uncertainty with EVERYTHING these days. Really don't want to cancel Oct but we will if it's still looking dangerous out there.

I think there is a hug difference between the area of the country you live in and some of the states that haven't issued a shelter at home order. The population density in ND is 9.97 people per sq mile, SD is 10.82 people per sq mile. Compare that to MD that has 594.8 people area per sq mile and Washing DC that has 10,298 people per sq mile. That's a really big difference and could account for part of the reason no order has been put in place.

I think this is a very true statement and I blame the 24/7 news coverage by the major news networks. I have heard networks like CNN & MSNBC complaining about the extended coverage the President is getting each day with the daily update. My comment to that is tell your reports to stop asking so many questions! The other day I was watching and the President asked if there were anymore questions (this was after about an hour of airtime answering questions), every hand went up! He even commented on it, saying the networks are complaining but you still continue to ask more questions.

I sure hope DVC doesn't change the banking program unless it's just a short term fix to get us through this mess.

I agree, so much uncertainty about everything. I'm a planner and it is making life crazy for me, I can't wait until this is all behind us. Our next trip is planned for the end of Jan 2021, at this point I'm thinking we are good but who really knows? I do think that at some point we do have to get back to our lives and I do believe we will I just don't know when that will be.

Stay well everybody.

 

[The Prophet]

Given the conflicting and often contradictory news about this virus we are receiving, I don't expect things to fully get back to normal for 12-18 months. The media has managed to scare many folks and they won't feel comfortable until a vaccine for this virus is in production and widely available.

 

[kboo]

We haven't started adding fuzzy numbers to the COVID-19 toll, meaning people who have died but not been attributed to COVID-19.

This. NYC estimates >200 dying at home yesterday, with the 911 calls being cardiac arrest and covid symptoms. But the dead aren't being tested, and thus not being counted in the deaths attributed to COVID-19.

 

[The Prophet]

This. NYC estimates >200 dying at home yesterday, with the 911 calls being cardiac arrest and covid symptoms. But the dead aren't being tested, and thus not being counted in the deaths attributed to COVID-19.

I would be skeptical about any numbers the government produces.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/vsrg/vsrg03-508.pdf

 

[Meglen]

Well Christmas party tickets were just released today.

They are going full steam ahead

I checked the special ticket site don't see them

 

[yankeesfan123]

I checked the special ticket site don't see them

Correct. Not for sale. Wouldn’t surprise me if Disney does list them for sale. Grab some money now and hope. If Disney has to cancel, that’s fine.

 

[Louie7080]

This. NYC estimates >200 dying at home yesterday, with the 911 calls being cardiac arrest and covid symptoms. But the dead aren't being tested, and thus not being counted in the deaths attributed to COVID-19.

Doctors are reporting the converse also happens. This doctor received a document outlining to put down covid when it wasn't tested for.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1247680994821509121

 

[kboo]

I would be skeptical about any numbers the government produces.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/vsrg/vsrg03-508.pdf

The CDC is not reporting these numbers. The CDC provides guidelines that jurisdictions may or may not follow. The CDC does not have an enforcement arm.

The 200+ dying at home in NYC is because reporting deaths at home in NYC must be done by calling 911 and then they must be referred to the medical examiner.

Doctors are reporting the converse also happens. This doctor received a document outlining to put down covid when it wasn't tested for.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1247680994821509121

I can't speak to MN and what they are doing there, but there is absolutely a shortage of tests, and I can tell you that in NYC no one is "wasting" tests on dead bodies when there aren't enough tests to go around for the living. Also, the false negative rate seems to be around 30%. COVID deaths are being undercounted here.

 

[pineapplepalms]

We already canceled April and July trips to WDW, DLR, and Aulani. We still have WDW booked for August and VGC booked for September but I'm thinking those are not likely to happen. I don't know that I'd be willing to take the risk. Normally I'm not considered in the "at risk" group, but I'm currently pregnant and there is basically no information on how this virus could affect pregnancy especially in the first/second trimesters. If we cancel, we'd have to bank a bunch of current UY points by the end of May and would also lose a good amount of banked points from last UY (possibly transfer to RCI), but I'm just not going to stress over it. We're already overloaded with trying to WFH and 1 and 4 year olds underfoot, and all my pregnancy nausea and exhaustion isn't helping. We'll get back to Disney trips one day when the time is right for us.

 

[Mumof4mice]

Those numbers do not include all of the millions of people who have had it and not been tested. Nor do they include all the millions of people who have had it and not had any symptoms and also not been tested. Not everyone who goes to the ER with symptoms is even being tested. There are researchers who have done analysis on this but those researchers are ignored by the media who present only apocalyptic realities concerning corona. Two researchers from Stanford University who looked at this said the death rate is probably somewhere around .01%.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464

The "most people don't have symptoms" idea is false. It's a product of the timing of the tests.

Say Dad tests positive, contact tracing means they test the rest of the family who all test positive too but don't have symptoms YET. That does not mean 3/4 people who are COVID positive won't have symptom. When you follow the cohort that test positive to the end (either recovery or death), only 3-5% will have no symptom. The rest are between common cold symptoms, worst flu they've ever had, sick enough to need hospitalisation, and death.

COVID 19 is capable of killing perfectly healthy, young people. Many who recover from the multifocal pneumonia will end up with permanent lung scarring. Self interest, if not social responsibility for those at higher risk, should motivate all of us to make sacrifices to reduce the spread.

I cancelled our family's Marathon Week 2021 booking, back in February when COVID 19 numbers took off in Italy and Israel. We would love to return in January 2022, after vaccines.

 

[ABE4DISNEY]

My info has come through financial conference calls.

1. The closest “control group study” was actually the Princess cruise ship.

2. Data from it recorded that of the individuals who tested positive 80% had mild to no symptoms, and the percentage for the no symptoms was calculated at 17.9%.

3. A WellsFargo analyst today released (that without a vaccine) he expected 0 park attendance in the 2nd half of FISCAL 2020, which ends the end of September, not calendar 2020. (Edited to correct info--thanks, TraderSamWDW for pointing that out.) And he predicts only 50% capacity for FISCAL 2021. It will just take time to get back to normal.

Personally, I believe in prayer and American ingenuity. We will get through this!

 

[TraderSamWDW]

3. A WellsFargo analyst today released (that without a vaccine) he believes that Disney will not open for 2020. And he predicts only 50% capacity for 2021.

Personally, I believe in prayer and American ingenuity. We will get through this!

The wells Fargo analyst, Stephen Cahill, said he expected 0 park attendance in the 2nd half of FISCAL 2020, which ends the end of September, not calendar 2020. Trying to be more optimistic he also said 2 years for crowds to fully recover.
And yes, we will get through this.

 

[Mumof4mice]

My info has come through financial conference calls.

1. The closest “control group study” was actually the Princess cruise ship.

2. Data from it recorded that of the individuals who tested positive 80% had mild to no symptoms, and the percentage for the no symptoms was calculated at 17.9%.

3. A WellsFargo analyst today released (that without a vaccine) he believes that Disney will not open for 2020. And he predicts only 50% capacity for 2021.

Personally, I believe in prayer and American ingenuity. We will get through this!

The Diamond Princess cohort is a good example of how the time course of the illness and testing affects the statistics.

Passengers and crew were initially allowed to mingle after the first confirmed case. Even after passengers were instructed to remain in their rooms, crew were still providing food etc, spreading the infection. Infection control training and equipment were both inadequate.

So you could have person B catching Covid19 from infected person A, at the end of that first week when everyone was still mingling. Person B takes 4 days to start shedding the virus, at which time he gives it to his cabin mate, person C. A few days later, person C coughs on a crew member delivering their meals, the crew member then infects the kitchen hand, and so on.

Upon disembarking the ship and getting tested, many of the passengers and crew were in the very early stages of asymptomatic infection. Some were not even shedding the virus yet - they tested negative, were released, and days later tested positive. When you follow these "asymptomatic" patients, most of them would develop symptoms of varying severity, before they reach the eventual outcome (recovery or death).

 

[zavandor]

We are in phase 1. This will end in a matter of weeks: may be 4, 8 or 12, but it will end.
Then there will be phase 2, which will have the main goal of not going back to phase 1. Tech will help us to trace the virus, test and quarantine the infected.
However this simply cannot work if parks, sports arena concert or other mass gatherings are allowed.
For example, let's say life goes back to "almost normal" and most businesses reopen. You catch the virus, you're asymptomatic and you still go to work, meet your parents, and to the restaurant one evening. When you develop the symptoms they trace back your movements and test your coworkers, your immediate family and the other people in the restaurant. Might be between dozens and hundreds people, huge effort but still feasible (they're doing it in South Korea).
Now imagine you went to the MK, AK, HS and Epcot during that week. You might have potentially been in contact with 100,000 people, who will then go back home all over the country or even the world. And you might know you had the virus even a week after you're back home; those 100k people might have been in contact easily with 100 people each. Impossible to trace, an outbreak would be inevitable.

I would not count on parks reopening soon.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...l-gatherings-were-rocket-fuel-for-coronavirus

 

[The Prophet]

A few points:

1. The number of deaths the media is reporting is a lagging indicator. Most of these folks have been hospitalized for 2 - 3 weeks
2. The number of cases is always going to increase (and is most likely higher than what the media is reporting)
3. The numbers to focus on is the increase of new cases (declining), people being admitted to the hospital (declining) and people getting discharged from the hospital (increasing)
4. There is no shortage of beds and ventilators. At least not in the NYC metro area
5. This virus will be with us for the next 12-18 months until a vaccine is widely available
6. The reason for the lock down is so that hospitals will not get overwhelmed. Once it is lifted (or eased) the virus will still be with us
7. If you take proper precautions (which should have taken place in January or February), you reduce, but not eliminate your chances for getting this hideous virus