Deciding between Copper Creek or Saratoga

[White Sox]

I'm trying to decide between getting a resale contract at Copper Creek or Saratoga. I'm just looking for the best deal and don't care where I stay. Thinking 200 points will be good for me. I'm a local so I probably won't have many 7-11 month-out planned trips.

Copper Creek seems to have smaller dues increases. That would make the life of the contract cheaper. But Saratoga is like $50 cheaper per point. Anyone know why CC dues increase slower than Saratoga? What's causing Saratoga to average a 5.83% increase per year the past 7 years while Copper Creek has only been 1.31%? (I calculated that for 7 years since that's when CCV began)

Then there's the length left on the contract 45 years CCV vs 31 years SSR. Having a longer contract does interest me more. Since who knows what DVC will do at deed expiration and what they might charge to extend.

Anyway, I calculated Copper Creek to be cheaper per year over the life of the contract compared to Saratoga. That's assuming dues increase at the same average rate they have been for the life of the resorts. I'd just like to hear your opinions on what you think is the best value DVC to purchase right now - whether you agree it's one of these two or another (not Riviera). And maybe some insight on why you think CCV dues have been rising so slowly compared to other resorts.

 

[teamsamant]

CCV is newer , less maintenance and repair = less dues. It was also just the main resort for sale a couple of years ago direct. Disney wasn't going to be upping the dues significantly while it was still selling. CCV has held its resale value high because of the years remaining and the dues...but dues can fluctuate!

SSR also has lots of grounds to cover but the dues are shared by so many because it's a massive resort. The contract up front cost is significantly cheaper. I chose SSR recently because it had the best bang for the buck in value.

 

[ocdb8r1]

I would personally not expect any significant long term difference in annual fees per point for the on-site WDW resorts. History shows these will converge and stay within a pretty similar cost per point. There are a lot of other "cost" dynamics at play as well that make a precise comparison difficult (for example, while SSR fees may be slightly higher, the number of points required for similar rooms is slightly lower - given you're likely to stay at your home resort at least a bit more often, this could cancel any per point annual dues savings).

Given the above, the only resort vs resort mathematical comparison I have focused on when purchasing is up front cost per point per year. Given the different contract lengths, here are some comparisons at common prices being seen for SSR

$90/point at SSR is equivalent to $130.65/point at CCV
$85/point at SSR is equivalent to $123.39/point at CCV
$80/point at SSR is equivalent to $116.13/point at CCV

My takeaway from the above is SSR is still a cheaper initial investment. This doesn't paint the whole picture as there is some time value of money considerations (which also tilt in favor of SSR due to initial cash outlay to purchase).

As mentioned, there are a lot of variables to think about that make a precise calculation comparing all the different costs of the two resorts (not to mention the emotional calculation of resort preference and whether you ascribe any need/value to the 11 month booking window). But stripping everything away except up front cost per point per year gives you some basis.

 

[intamin]

Thats a pretty nice price breakdown from @ocdb8r1. Regardless, I would personally still opt for CCV. Recently CCV was selling in the 130s. The benefit of buying CCV is it will likely hold resale value better than SSR given its longer contract length and superior location compared to SSR. In addition, the points will fetch a higher premium on the rental market and the 11 month booking window matters a lot for CCV as it’s a competitive resort for Christmas/studios although I know you said you don’t care about booking windows.

I wouldn’t put too much weight into the small increase in dues as that won’t be the norm. If you look at RIV’s dues it also has had a minimal increase just because it’s new but once it gets closer to the 7 year/14 year refurbs those MFs will increase.

 

[White Sox]

These are really good considerations. I am now leaning more towards CCV. The initial cost divided by length of contract is fairly similar that it doesn't make much of a difference. And the idea that the dues may even out over time does seem likely based on the older resorts' dues.
SSR does have the better value point chart, but those seem easy to get at 7 months anyway.

 

[teawar]

We own at both, buying a small direct contract when CCV was one of the main resorts being sold through Disney and buying SSR resale. My husband is a number cruncher and thought that was the “best deal” at the time in 2017 or 2018 for the price per point. I’m more of an emotional purchaser just loving the Wilderness Lodge, but it can be hard to get into at times. We can pretty much get into Saratoga whenever we want, and we are sometimes last minute planners. I must say availability this year is definitely a little trickier than in the past few years with the pandemic.

 

[mamaofsix]

SSR maintenance fees are likely always going to be a bit higher due to internal bus transportation and the huge grounds. You can also book there at 7 months very easily if you really want to stay there.

I would choose CCV. A short boat ride from MK. Beautiful Lobby. Home booking priority if you want to stay at Christmas Time. Lower dues.

 

[DVCsloth]

If I remember correctly, CCV dues started out on the high side so the increase won't be as much. SSR is older and more spread out possibly increasing the cost. I also think that the transportation and maintenance costs are shared with the hotel side at WL.

 

[varns529]

Resort	Avg. Cost Per Pt.	Years Left	Cost Per Pt. Per Year from Price	2023 Dues	Total Cost Per Pt. Per Year	Rank: Fall 2022	Rank: Spring 2022	Rank Change
Grand Floridian	$170	41	$4.15	$7.33	$11.48	1	2	+1
Riviera***	$143	47	$3.04	$8.50	$11.54	2	4	+2
Copper Creek	$166	45	$3.69	$7.92	$11.61	3	3	—
Polynesian	$165	43	$3.83	$7.95	$11.78	4	1	-3
Saratoga Springs	$126	31	$4.06	$7.86	$11.92	T5	5	—

DVC resort economical rankings from fall 2022. They haven't released the first quarter of 2023 yet.

Source is https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

Ever since Disney undershot on dues with Aulani (leading to several DVC executives losing their jobs) they’ve way overshot on new resort dues, so the increases have been small the first several years.

Don’t be fooled.

CCV is in an older building than SSR. Dues increases are hard to predict long term but I would absolutely not anticipate past performance to be indicative of future results. OKW had the lowest dues for forever - until it didn’t, and suddenly it’s one of the highest.

I’d pick SSR for the lower buy in price. I actually think it’s an easy call.

 

[MrsBooch]

Do you have a preference to where you want to stay? Or room type? If you’re looking to get into studios at CCV with Saratoga points that won’t work out well for you.

 

[White Sox]

Do you have a preference to where you want to stay? Or room type? If you’re looking to get into studios at CCV with Saratoga points that won’t work out well for you.

Right now my preference is studios. But no preference of location.

 

[teawar]

Studios at CCV are definitely smaller than at SSR, unless you luck into one of the 5 or 6 magical studios that are almost 2 rooms at CCV. That happened to us once!

 

[RoseGold]

I have an unorthodox plan. Hear me out. As a local, you don't care about the AP discount or the 10% on dining. BUT, as a local, the perk like MM might actually mean something to you, and you could plan to go to HS on a Weds night. You could also use the future resorts last minute, which might matter as more and more people get locked out of RIV3 or whatever. So, blue card and future resorts might matter. Heck, as a local you might care about the paid wine tastings or photo ops or whatever they do in the future. (Longer discussion here: https://www.disboards.com/threads/dvc-newbie-availability-direct-vs-resale.3883760/)

If you value Blue Card, I would probably want Poly2, which I think is the absolute best location and a new build. But, likely resale restricted. You buy it, you marry it. DLT will likely also be resale restricted, but there won't be more of those, so who cares. It took Disney decades to get this project through, there won't be another one soon. It should hold resale much better, which I like to keep options open. Combine DLT opening in a few months with the crazy economy right now, and it might open low. I think there's an argument to buy DLT, even if you never go to DL. You'd be blue card with points to use anywhere. You change your mind, you sell and buy SSR or RIV3 or whatever. Or, heck, you rent out your DL bookings, keep your Blue Card, and book your MM night with your resale SSR. DL is a very different offering than WDW, which are just going to keep coming. And, you could do this whole plan backwards buying SSR now and getting existing member discount at DLT.

Of course, cheapest plan is SSR, make do with what you get. Can't argue with cheap, and SSR is it, especially at current pricing. If you believe having cash right now makes money, SSR will flip any of that math with cheaper buy-in. That's my plan, and there's nothing wrong with it. I've never had to stay at OKW or SSR. My secondary choice for SAP would be BLT or CCV. I think BLT has a long way to run. But these are all so close mathematically that a good contract can flip the math on any of the usual suspects. I don't even like WL, and I've seen quite a few CCV that turned my head. Heck, I think there's even an argument to roll the dice on Poly1 in case they're the same association, which I think is unlikely. Between these choices is a fine distinction. I do think SSR is easiest to sell in the future because of the buy-in.

 

[ocdb8r1]

If you don't care about location and are looking at this from mostly a "sleep around points" perspective, why did you initially only ask about CCV vs. SSR? SSR is the seemed "favorite" SAP contract, but curious why you targeted CCV as the alternative?

 

[White Sox]

I have an unorthodox plan. Hear me out. As a local, you don't care about the AP discount or the 10% on dining. BUT, as a local, the perk like MM might actually mean something to you, and you could plan to go to HS on a Weds night. You could also use the future resorts last minute, which might matter as more and more people get locked out of RIV3 or whatever. So, blue card and future resorts might matter. Heck, as a local you might care about the paid wine tastings or photo ops or whatever they do in the future. (Longer discussion here: https://www.disboards.com/threads/dvc-newbie-availability-direct-vs-resale.3883760/)

If you value Blue Card, I would probably want Poly2, which I think is the absolute best location and a new build. But, likely resale restricted. You buy it, you marry it. DLT will likely also be resale restricted, but there won't be more of those, so who cares. It took Disney decades to get this project through, there won't be another one soon. It should hold resale much better, which I like to keep options open. Combine DLT opening in a few months with the crazy economy right now, and it might open low. I think there's an argument to buy DLT, even if you never go to DL. You'd be blue card with points to use anywhere. You change your mind, you sell and buy SSR or RIV3 or whatever. Or, heck, you rent out your DL bookings, keep your Blue Card, and book your MM night with your resale SSR. DL is a very different offering than WDW, which are just going to keep coming. And, you could do this whole plan backwards buying SSR now and getting existing member discount at DLT.

Of course, cheapest plan is SSR, make do with what you get. Can't argue with cheap, and SSR is it, especially at current pricing. If you believe having cash right now makes money, SSR will flip any of that math with cheaper buy-in. That's my plan, and there's nothing wrong with it. I've never had to stay at OKW or SSR. My secondary choice for SAP would be BLT or CCV. I think BLT has a long way to run. But these are all so close mathematically that a good contract can flip the math on any of the usual suspects. I don't even like WL, and I've seen quite a few CCV that turned my head. Heck, I think there's even an argument to roll the dice on Poly1 in case they're the same association, which I think is unlikely. Between these choices is a fine distinction. I do think SSR is easiest to sell in the future because of the buy-in.

I don't feel like those perks are worth the $15-20k difference. Moonlight Magic has no appeal to me. I could just go to extended evening hours for the low crowds. Don't care about characters or free ice cream. Also Riviera doesn't appeal to me because of the insane point chart. Plus who knows when they'll build another resort with its own condo association - assuming Poly tower is part of old Poly, but that one is up in the air.

 

[White Sox]

If you don't care about location and are looking at this from mostly a "sleep around points" perspective, why did you initially only ask about CCV vs. SSR? SSR is the seemed "favorite" SAP contract, but curious why you targeted CCV as the alternative?

Mostly because the length of contract remaining makes its cost per year fairly low. Plus its initial buy-in is lower than Grand Floridian and Polynesian. I did do my calculations with the lower annual dues percent increase, so they are likely a little off. But even if the dues goes to 3% average annual increase I still find it to be one of the top value resorts.

 

[ocdb8r1]

Mostly because the length of contract remaining makes its cost per year fairly low. Plus its initial buy-in is lower than Grand Floridian and Polynesian. I did do my calculations with the lower annual dues percent increase, so they are likely a little off. But even if the dues goes to 3% average annual increase I still find it to be one of the top value resorts.

In that case, in wouldn't discount PVB and BLT (as others have mentioned). I think the monorail resorts will hold their values well. BLT as a "tower" enjoys some cost efficiencies and regardless of whether PVB2 is the same or new association, those rooms will somehow share in the costs of the common facilities at Poly (hopefully helping to manage annual dues). You can almost certainly get BLT at a lower buy in than CCV and I would bet PVB you can get equal to CCV. Just an idea to be able to broaden what you might "offer" on. CCV has the lowest number of contracts listed (of those we're talking about here) and if you're going to try to get a "bargain", the more contracts you can take a shot at, the better your chances.

 

[RoseGold]

SSR is the obvious choice for cheapest and you don't care about the room. It's the classic SAP for a reason. There's so much of it, and it's easy to sell. Lower buy in, use the money for something actually productive.

I don't see why CCV is in your discussion unless you really love WL. It has very few studios, so you'll probably not even be able to book it.

For backup choices, I would consider BLT, because the value view is meaningful and hard to book. You could rent it out if you needed to. If you did plan far enough out, the BLT priority matters.

I would also put Poly1 in this discussion if you think Poly1 might be in the same association. I don't, so I wouldn't do this.

 

[White Sox]

You're all making convincing arguments for SSR. And in 31 years from now when the contract expires, I'm sure the cost of ownership will barely phase me.
What are the lowest price per point of SSR going for right now?