Cases rising or dropping by you?

[Cannot_Wait_4Disney]

Well my neck of the woods decided it wasn't fair for Florida, Texas, Arizona, and California to have all the fun so we decided to set a record too.

so more testing is the reason more positives are showing....so what? Guess what, the death toll is rising again steeply too... it doesn't really matter WHY the positive cases are rising (whether it's more testing,or something else) what this higher test rate is visibly showing is that it's more prevalent than many people seem to think....and the end result is overfilled ICU again. And deaths. again, just the numbers- cdc site was showing for a couple of weeks a steady 450-800 covid deaths per day.... today it jumped to nearly 3,000. IN. ONE. DAY.
and this is old news, since they only compile daily reports based on previous reports,which are delayed.

The Positive rate on tests is also climbing. It's not just more testing. And even if it were just due to more testing. That means it was really this bad all along. Not much more comforting to anyone that can do the hard think. The 3,000 was back logged. So really instead of 3,000 in one day it was maybe 480-830 all those other days instead of what they reported.

 

[disneychrista]

something seems off with that 3,000 death number.


it looks like the anomaly came from new jersey. I wonder if it was backlogged information

Even if it is a backlog of information it doesn't change the fact the PEOPLE ARE DYING! Does it really matter if it is an additional 600 per day instead of 3,000 in one day?

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

That means it was really this bad all along.

Several days ago it came out that it's possible 8.7 million or more people in the U.S. had COVID-19 from March 8th-28th but around 80% of that may have gone undiagnosed due to testing and our general understanding of the virus. It is an extrapolation so one would want to be careful of that and the study has certain limitations to the assumptions made but I've always had the thought process that our numbers were probably a lot worse back in March and April when testing was more limited as well as stay at home orders where people were in cramped quarters with the possibility of more rapid spread in certain areas.

https://www.sciencenews.org/article...ons-cases-u-s-may-have-gone-undiagnosed-march

 

[Mango7100]

Another 3500 cases here in AZ. Let's see if FL can break 10 thousand cases a day by the end of next week.

They will hit that by Monday I think...

 

[wombat_5606]

Even if it is a backlog of information it doesn't change the fact the PEOPLE ARE DYING! Does it really matter if it is an additional 600 per day instead of 3,000 in one day?

Dying and with that increase in diagnosed cases, a lot of people sick!

I read an article this morning that 25% of people in the 20-40 age range are being admitted to the ICU. We don't yet know what having this virus means to their health in 6 months.

 

[Meriweather]

I'm sure glad I like my house......we're a disaster. Glad most of my family can stay home too

 

[starry_solo]

Rising such that my office has cut back on plans to have us back in at least 75% of the time by August. When things were really bad in March/April, we were told that the boss didn't expect anyone back in the office until January 2021. Then, when things started picking up, they said 50% of the time by September, then it got upped to 75% by August.

Now it's back to what we were at, which is primarily full-time telecommuting for most

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

Even if it is a backlog of information it doesn't change the fact the PEOPLE ARE DYING! Does it really matter if it is an additional 600 per day instead of 3,000 in one day?

I agree that it doesn’t change how many lives lost. But yes it does matter. The trends do matter; if we’re staying steady at x number a day, it’s still horrible, but absolutely not the same if all of a sudden we’ve spiked up to 3,000 a day. Especially if it means our new normal is 3,000/day. It’s why experts say to watch the 5-7 day rolling average and not necessarily single day counts.

ETA: with the lag in deaths, we unfortunately haven’t seen the death toll associated with these spikes. And that’s scary.

 

[3threebabies]

so more testing is the reason more positives are showing....so what? Guess what, the death toll is rising again steeply too... it doesn't really matter WHY the positive cases are rising (whether it's more testing,or something else) what this higher test rate is visibly showing is that it's more prevalent than many people seem to think....and the end result is overfilled ICU again. And deaths. again, just the numbers- cdc site was showing for a couple of weeks a steady 450-800 covid deaths per day.... today it jumped to nearly 3,000. IN. ONE. DAY.
and this is old news, since they only compile daily reports based on previous reports,which are delayed.

something seems off with that 3,000 death number.
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/coronavirus-deaths-united-states-each-day-2020-n1177936
it looks like the anomaly came from new jersey. I wonder if it was backlogged information

The jump in reported deaths is very old and not confirmed via a positive test. Gov Murphy announced in advance NJ would be adding historical presumed Covid deaths to the count this week. Below is a quote from Murphy’s media briefing 6/25. The link includes the entire transcript.

Today we are reporting an additional 26 lost brothers and sisters from our New Jersey community to COVID-19 confirmed positive results, and that total is now 13,018, an almost unfathomable number. And today, for the first time, we are reporting 1,854 probable COVID-19 deaths since this emergency began. With these numbers, the total currently known loss from confirmed and probable deaths from COVID-19 among our residents is now 14,872.

https://nj.gov/governor/news/news/562020/approved/20200625a.shtml

 

[disneychrista]

I agree that it doesn’t change how many lives lost. But yes it does matter. The trends do matter; if we’re staying steady at x number a day, it’s still horrible, but absolutely not the same if all of a sudden we’ve spiked up to 3,000 a day. Especially if it means our new normal is 3,000/day. It’s why experts say to watch the 5-7 day rolling average and not necessarily single day counts.

ETA: with the lag in deaths, we unfortunately haven’t seen the death toll associated with these spikes. And that’s scary.

My counties reporting numbers are still messed up. The only one I trust as accurate are the number of cases. Really difficult to get a real sense of what is going on.

Unfortunately from what modeling has predicted we are in for a long summer with continued increases day after day. Of course the public has the power to change the predictions.

 

[Heather07438]

eta- In light of the possible 8 million plus cases that may have been spreading in March, I think it's totally possible the country had at least millions of cases already by May.

Reported numbers never had the expectation to count everything. Reported numbers try to be a collection of consistent data, to make increases in spread, rates of spread, and differences across locations detectable.

Just like flu data each year, cases reported come nowhere near actual numbers. But they can get an idea of which regions are flaring up, see where spread is increasing or decreasing, and how fast that is happening.

Deaths are easier to track than cases, but even that needs to be considered alongside excess deaths to get the best picture. All deaths will end up on some record, not all sickness will.

 

[RangerPooh]

I have Bill Lee. Yes, our local government was doing more than our state government, but now our county lawyers have advised that our local ordinances should be equal or less restrictive than state ordinances—if they are stricter they are afraid the county will be sued. You know...freedom

I think I'm at the opposite end of the state from you. I'm in Shelby County (Memphis) where we lead the state (if not #2) in confirmed cased. Our county mayor has signed into effect an ordinance that requires masks to be worn in public/inside businesses. Of course, you go into the store and people are not complying and it's not being enforced. People don't care about the possible fines because who is going to enforce it? Someone on the city council requested that we return to phase 1 but it was voted down. Too many people here just don't care. They're too selfish and complain it violates their freedoms.

 

[jamescanuck2001]

Dying and with that increase in diagnosed cases, a lot of people sick!

I read an article this morning that 25% of people in the 20-40 age range are being admitted to the ICU. We don't yet know what having this virus means to their health in 6 months.

Where was that article? That's really bad if true.

 

[wombat_5606]

Where was that article? That's really bad if true.

Sorry, I misremembered the actual statistic. It's hospitalized, not ICU.

Here's the article, though. I found it interesting.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/...20200626&rid=F9D98304214E19042C306D5E9B33ABA8

 

[Heather07438]

They're too selfish and complain it violates their freedoms.

I vote for the freedom to live in a stable society.

Spread reduction measures worked here, and that can mean not only better stability now but also offer better stability as this plays out across our collective health and economy.

 

[RamblingMad]

eta- In light of the possible 8 million plus cases that may have been spreading in March, I think it's totally possible the country had at least millions of cases already by May.

Reported numbers never had the expectation to count everything. Reported numbers try to be a collection of consistent data, to make increases in spread, rates of spread, and differences across locations detectable.

Just like flu data each year, cases reported come nowhere near actual numbers. But they can get an idea of which regions are flaring up, see where spread is increasing or decreasing, and how fast that is happening.

Deaths are easier to track than cases, but even that needs to be considered alongside excess deaths to get the best picture. All deaths will end up on some record, not all sickness will.

I heard one doctor on the radio say that he multiples the number of new cases positive for a day by three to get the estimated new number of cases for that day.

 

[3threebabies]

Sorry, I misremembered the actual statistic. It's hospitalized, not ICU.

Here's the article, though. I found it interesting.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/...20200626&rid=F9D98304214E19042C306D5E9B33ABA8

Unless I completely miss the portion to which you refer, the article states young adults are not increasing in hospital census. 25% of those hospitalized for Covid are young adults, not that 25% of young adults are in the hospital. Based on the sentence before, it appears adult patients under 50 fill 25% of the Covid hospital census and have since March. See below for quote from article.

For one, governors and news outlets have repeatedly cited adults under 50 as the main cause of the newest surges in COVID-19 cases. But young adults have made up about 25 percent of COVID-19 hospitalizations in U.S. surveys every week since early March, suggesting their infection rates haven’t ballooned tremendously.

 

[Mango7100]

I think I'm at the opposite end of the state from you. I'm in Shelby County (Memphis) where we lead the state (if not #2) in confirmed cased. Our county mayor has signed into effect an ordinance that requires masks to be worn in public/inside businesses. Of course, you go into the store and people are not complying and it's not being enforced. People don't care about the possible fines because who is going to enforce it? Someone on the city council requested that we return to phase 1 but it was voted down. Too many people here just don't care. They're too selfish and complain it violates their freedoms.

View attachment 504645

Yup, I am Knox. Right next to Sevier with Gatlinburg and all the tourists. And I agree, too many people here are selfish. Our county mayor was a former pro wrestler and is pretty useless. Our city mayor has done better but they will never pass a mask ordinance or anything really with teeth. They have had over 250 complaints about businesses not following reduced capacity/masks for employees, but all they do is “try to educate the businesses”...I think pulling their liquor license would speed up the education.

 

[HeatherC]

Unless I completely miss the portion to which you refer, the article states young adults are not increasing in hospital census. 25% of those hospitalized for Covid are young adults, not that 25% of young adults are in the hospital. Based on the sentence before, it appears adult patients under 50 fill 25% of the Covid hospital census and have since March. See below for quote from article.

For one, governors and news outlets have repeatedly cited adults under 50 as the main cause of the newest surges in COVID-19 cases. But young adults have made up about 25 percent of COVID-19 hospitalizations in U.S. surveys every week since early March, suggesting their infection rates haven’t ballooned tremendously.

Unless I completely miss the portion to which you refer, the article states young adults are not increasing in hospital census. 25% of those hospitalized for Covid are young adults, not that 25% of young adults are in the hospital. Based on the sentence before, it appears adult patients under 50 fill 25% of the Covid hospital census and have since March. See below for quote from article.

For one, governors and news outlets have repeatedly cited adults under 50 as the main cause of the newest surges in COVID-19 cases. But young adults have made up about 25 percent of COVID-19 hospitalizations in U.S. surveys every week since early March, suggesting their infection rates haven’t ballooned tremendously.

I believe they are now making up 35% of hospitalizations up 10%. This is a growing concern.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/nati...54638c-b7b4-11ea-a510-55bf26485c93_story.html

 

[JOLT]

When covid first hit hospitals stoped all elective surgery in anticipation for the wave. hospitals lost millions in revenue daily they cut employees hours and even furloughed some. Now that cases are increasing I wonder if they are admitting any covid+ with symptoms to help boost revenue. our local hospital system has 112 inpatient covid patients and 2 ICU vent patients. compared to our early peak in april we had 54 Inpatient and 26 vent patients.