Best Economical DVC Resorts to Purchase: Spring 2021

[pkrieger2287]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1386048754709667841

 

[zavandor]

As usual, what I don't like of this type of analysis is that they just divide the buy-in cost by the remaining years. It ignores completely the time value of money.
It still is a good reference, however one should weight other factors in, like:

• if you need to finance to buy at a more expensive resort, most savings will be eaten by the interests
• the possibility to buy a larger cheaper contract at a less expensive resort for the same amount
• point charts (the same room type costs more at the most recent resorts, if one plans to use the 11 months window it's very important).

This even before starting to consider not financial issues, like type of accommodations available at the resort, location, theme....

 

[CarolMN]

Agree with @zavandor - especially because it ignores the cost per night and divides the buy-in cost equally over the years remaining, ignoring the time value of money.

 

[kanerf]

Generally the most bang-for-the-buck will be achieved at resorts that charge fewer points per night, so AKL, OKW and SSR fall into this category.

 

[Nabas]

Annual Maintenance Fees (MF) are an important consideration.

As others have pointed out, the article assumes the cost of the purchase price is spread over the entire life of the contract. But are you really going to be vacationing at WDW for the next 45 years? And if you are, do you really want to pay now for a vacation that you are taking in 45 years?

I don't own there but SSR generally is considered the best value. Low initial cost, low MF, and plenty of years left on the contract.

There's nothing in that article to persuade me otherwise.

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

Also, if you want 1BRs, those can be easy enough to grab at 7 months depending on the time of the year/length of stay/schedule flexibility. Which means you may not need to shell out the higher initial buy-in cost of say VGF and could be using SSR/AKV there with ease. So I would consider the availability graphs on the DVC help site (which are the most updated)

 

[havoc315]

Generally the most bang-for-the-buck will be achieved at resorts that charge fewer points per night, so AKL, OKW and SSR fall into this category.

Only if you consider "bang for buck" based on number of nights and only if you stay at those resorts.
If you buy OKW as your home resort, but you intend to use all the points at GFV, you will get horrible bang for your buck.

But I also see it as.... a Motel 6 has more "bang for the buck" than a Ritz, in terms of cheapest rooms per night.
So yes, those resorts have the cheapest points and the cheapest point charts but only great bang for the buck if you actually want to stay in those resorts.

So "bang for buck" really needs to be examined a couple different ways...
"Bang for buck" for accumulating points to use elsewhere: Here, you want the cheapest points AND lowest dues. SSR is the major winner here. Yes, Poly has lower dues and more years, but the initial costs are MUCH higher. So throw in the time value of money... SSR really leads by quite a bit.

Best "bang for buck" for home resort, with intent to stay at the home resort -- That's too subjective to really analyze. Strong argument could be made for AKV -- long contract, fairly cheap points, and unique room offerings with value rooms and club level rooms.
Strong argument could be made for Riviera -- even direct -- with direct points cheaper than some resort resale points and 49 years left on the contract.
BLT's long contract and semi-low point chart, making it the most affordable monorail resort, makes it a bang for buck contender.

 

[davidl81]

Only if you consider "bang for buck" based on number of nights and only if you stay at those resorts.
If you buy OKW as your home resort, but you intend to use all the points at GFV, you will get horrible bang for your buck.

But I also see it as.... a Motel 6 has more "bang for the buck" than a Ritz, in terms of cheapest rooms per night.
So yes, those resorts have the cheapest points and the cheapest point charts but only great bang for the buck if you actually want to stay in those resorts.

So "bang for buck" really needs to be examined a couple different ways...
"Bang for buck" for accumulating points to use elsewhere: Here, you want the cheapest points AND lowest dues. SSR is the major winner here. Yes, Poly has lower dues and more years, but the initial costs are MUCH higher. So throw in the time value of money... SSR really leads by quite a bit.

Best "bang for buck" for home resort, with intent to stay at the home resort -- That's too subjective to really analyze. Strong argument could be made for AKV -- long contract, fairly cheap points, and unique room offerings with value rooms and club level rooms.
Strong argument could be made for Riviera -- even direct -- with direct points cheaper than some resort resale points and 49 years left on the contract.
BLT's long contract and semi-low point chart, making it the most affordable monorail resort, makes it a bang for buck contender.

I always look at SSR for resale SAP since they are the best “value”, but with the recent increase in resale pricing Poly is almost dead even in value compared to SSR IMO. I’ve seen Poly at $125 a point and would have bought it if it had the same UY as my current contracts. With the fees at Poly and the longer contract I think it’s super close to SSR in value right now.

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

I always look at SSR for resale SAP since they are the best “value”, but with the recent increase in resale pricing Poly is almost dead even in value compared to SSR IMO. I’ve seen Poly at $125 a point and would have bought it if it had the same UY as my current contracts. With the fees at Poly and the longer contract I think it’s super close to SSR in value right now.

Wow, $125 would be great. The link shows Poly at $158 pp avg, so really high imo. Perhaps $125 was for very big contracts? Also, since Disney is buying Poly back right now, $125 may not pass ROFR...

 

[davidl81]

Wow, $125 would be great. The link shows Poly at $158 pp avg, so really high imo. Perhaps $125 was for very big contracts? Also, since Disney is buying Poly back right now, $125 may not pass ROFR...

The contract I found was 100 points. I honestly didn’t even realize the going price was $158. I sent the seller an email, I’ll likely buy it at the $125 if it’s still available and figure out the UY thing later.

 

[DianaMB333]

As usual, what I don't like of this type of analysis is that they just divide the buy-in cost by the remaining years. It ignores completely the time value of money.
It still is a good reference, however one should weight other factors in, like:

• if you need to finance to buy at a more expensive resort, most savings will be eaten by the interests
• the possibility to buy a larger cheaper contract at a less expensive resort for the same amount
• point charts (the same room type costs more at the most recent resorts, if one plans to use the 11 months window it's very important).

This even before starting to consider not financial issues, like type of accommodations available at the resort, location, theme....

Agreee! Have you done the analysis? Which ones do you recommend?

 

[DougEMG]

I'm also in agreement with zavandor that just dividing the purchase price by time left on the contract ignores the time value of money.

Dividing price by years left is going to over value resorts with a lot of years left on them. If you want to compare resorts with similar time remaining then fine do it that way.

 

[Sandisw]

I'm also in agreement with zavandor that just dividing the purchase price by time left on the contract ignores the time value of money.

Dividing price by years left is going to over value resorts with a lot of years left on them. If you want to compare resorts with similar time remaining then fine do it that way.

Agree! I also think how you use them plays a bigger role than length of contract.

For me, not much is economical if what I bought doesn’t get me what I want out of it.

It would be interesting to see clustered by nightly costs and similar end dates.

 

[zavandor]

Agreee! Have you done the analysis? Which ones do you recommend?

I'm sorry, I bought my contracts 9 years ago, I have more than enough points so I haven't done any calculations lately.
Also, all analysis need some assumptions and it varies wildly what one can assume, in terms of inflations, dues increases, comparing to room costs and so on. Sometime it seems the author of the analysis is trying just to prove what they hope the result is. One can torture an Excel file long enough to make it say whatever you want.

But I still read all such analysis, it's always interesting to read the thoughts process behind them. One should try to understand the system as much as possible, so they can give the right weight to all the different components and come up with the best option for them: I am convinced there is no catch all solution, every situation is different. When I bought my contracts, BWV was just $10 more than SSR, and yet I bought the latter, because of the cheaper dues, the longer contracts and because I would still have used the BWV as SAP most of the times, so it wouldn't have made sense to pay a premium over SSR. I'm very happy with my contracts and yet it wouldn't have worked well in the same way for others.

 

[DianaMB333]

I'm sorry, I bought my contracts 9 years ago, I have more than enough points so I haven't done any calculations lately.
Also, all analysis need some assumptions and it varies wildly what one can assume, in terms of inflations, dues increases, comparing to room costs and so on. Sometime it seems the author of the analysis is trying just to prove what they hope the result is. One can torture an Excel file long enough to make it say whatever you want.

But I still read all such analysis, it's always interesting to read the thoughts process behind them. One should try to understand the system as much as possible, so they can give the right weight to all the different components and come up with the best option for them: I am convinced there is no catch all solution, every situation is different. When I bought my contracts, BWV was just $10 more than SSR, and yet I bought the latter, because of the cheaper dues, the longer contracts and because I would still have used the BWV as SAP most of the times, so it wouldn't have made sense to pay a premium over SSR. I'm very happy with my contracts and yet it wouldn't have worked well in the same way for others.

Thanks!

 

[TigerScribe]

The lost investment income on the initial investment is the only reason we have never bought in — despite being an every 18- 24- month family while our boys were young (three trips so far and would have been four by now but for COVID).

I know that is the least predictable variable. I know some folks wouldn’t be keeping that money in securities, etc,, so the scales for them tip toward the certainty of securing vacations through owning points. And I’ve also played with the idea of buying resale at Polynesian or Copper Creek, knowing we could sell in 15 years or so. But even recouping our nominal buy-in plus some likely wouldn’t yield what the initial $15,000-$25,000 can do in an IRA.

Do I wish I’d known about DVC when we were about to have our first child in 2011 and could have bought resale at SSR or Poly or BLT? Yes. But at these current prices, set against this bull market era, I lean in favor of picking my spots for points-rental vacations and, as the boys get older, using platinum status at Hilton suites near Disney Springs (and maybe even splitting those stays with last minute discounted DVC rentals since Hilton is easy to modify or cancel).

The last variable weighing against purchase for me: The hit Disney took over the course of the pandemic is a game-changer for the corporation. Despite all the joy and magic, Disney was already beholden first to shareholders. That pressure did nothing but intensify from March 2020 onward. I see no sign that the corner office suite will ever make it easier to save money or even maximize your experience through DVC ever again. Like Wall Street long-term, it’s impossible to quantify this variable. But it’s easy to recognize it as a fundamental part of the financial equation.

 

[RoseGold]

I know that is the least predictable variable. I know some folks wouldn’t be keeping that money in securities, etc,, so the scales for them tip toward the certainty of securing vacations through owning points. And I’ve also played with the idea of buying resale arm say, Polynesian or Copper Creek, knowing we could still sell back in 15 years or so. But even that recouping likely wouldn’t recover what the initial $15,000-$25,000 can do in an IRA.

If that's your standard, then just buy cheap SSR and unload it in 5-10 years. Less buy in, and the investment income matters a lot less on a smaller timeframe and smaller buy in. In my math, even if SSR tanked an unprecedented amount, I would at least break even. Everyone acts like you have to hold DVC forever, because that's the way it's sold. But no reason you can't buy the cheap seats now and get rid of them when you are done with Disney. And geez my DVC did better than any bond fund I had.

The investment income starts to matter when this is a decades long discussion.

 

[supersnoop]

As usual, what I don't like of this type of analysis is that they just divide the buy-in cost by the remaining years. It ignores completely the time value of money.

I'm of the opinion that it does factor in the time value of money. You're purchasing tomorrow's vacation with today's dollars, but you're also assigning today's value to tomorrow's lodging. Unless you believe that your opportunity cost is greater than the rate at with the price of lodging increases, the simple calculation is entirely appropriate.

 

[Lee Matthews]

I think AKV is ‘good value’ but I do hope they offer contract extensions like OKW eventually. I would have liked longer than 2057 but also wouldn’t have any other resort as my home resort

 

[VdoesDisney]

The problem is that this is an extremely personal calculation, one needs to start with home resorts that you would be happy staying at (I say happy because just “being ok with it” will make you regret dropping $15-30K+ into DVC), after that take a look at point charts and per point value (years left & MF), then make a decision.

When I was really early into my DVC analysis journey I had come accross one of these blogs deeming SSR the best value, I started looking for SSR contracts until I realized I truly didn’t want to stay there, we value walking distance to parks above everything else so SSR was a terrible choice for my family.

The DVC purchase equation has to start with a small (2-4) list of desired home resorts and then break down the economics, I personally looked at 2 factors:
1) How many nights I could get at each home resort contender with my desired investment (factoring my typical travel dates)
2) What was the per point value, taking into account years left and MFs for each resort

(I also did a cash comparison but that didn’t really prove valuable IMO)