The $260 is not part of the equation when picking which option, because you will get the same savings if you do NOT get the refund, whenever you renew.
As for the $200, it is money in your pocket, but unless you really need the cash now, if you are going to renew anyway, it's not "better" than those two months of your AP, unless you would not use the AP during those two extra months.
My out of state AP expires the end of February. I could take the $200 (if that is what it turns out to be), and renew within the proper time for a February expiration, or NOT get the refund, and not have to renew until the end of April. For me, if things are back to "normal" by then, that will cover my usually busy spring break season, so it's a much better option.
So I guess it boils down to the timing of your future trips, whether the extra two months on the pass is worth that value to you. If you don't plan to visit those two months, then absolutely, take the refund. But it's not a clearcut "savings".