7 month availability getting more difficult

[Dean]

Am I mistaken that finding availability at 7 months getting more difficult? I've always understood it's a hit or miss with 11 month home resort priority, but I've noticed that even SSR and OKW are no longer "guaranteed" to be open. I say that not because anything was ever guaranteed....but it was very likely they were available just because of the sheer size of the resorts. Maybe we have just picked times that are more popular, but our last few times availability showed the day before there were openings, and at 8 am, the first night disappears.

This is not a complaint, more of an observation. I remember before purchasing being told on here buy where you want to stay......and that seems to be more and more evident as time goes on. Personally I feel that where I want to stay has changed over the years......even though my wife's has not

I doubt it's changed much the last 2-3 years but did before that. Once SSR was sold out and those new owners had a chance to go a few times, things should have been reasonably stable for a while. The other differences is the internet has increased awareness of the system and how it works. Once the new resort opens, we'll see if there is further pressure. New resorts/buyers don't have much effect based on numbers, it's more related to the demand of the resort. If Riviera is at the level of BWV/BCV it'll have little to no effect, if it's much less, it'll have a larger effect almost exponentially related to the difference in demand.

 

[SpoonfulofSugar]

I agree, I feel that the 7 month booking window is getting smaller every year. I think a big part is the influx of new buyers combined with renting points. Almost every person who knows I own DVC asks me about renting point when several years ago they would just ask which resort.
I also feel that studio availability is the one that is shrinking fastest. We own at four resort with some of those recently changing to five in a studio. Since that change I have a hard time finding availability for a short 3 night mid-week stay before the 7 month window opens, when that never happened in the past with the exception of if it was Christmas or another holiday week.

 

[DSLRuser]

1. Much more noticeable in studios than 1 beds.

. However there's often plenty of 1 bed choice, even in desirable but expensive points per night resorts.

.

When we purchased, I was pretty aware of the trends you listed....so we ensured we had the points to get 1 BR for all our stays. So far, that has served us well.

 

[chainkid]

The parks are also wall to wall people almost year round now due to many different promotions or events. More people mean more units being rented out all year long. I almost forgot to book my home resort for Oct weekend and lost out on boardwalk view and even had to book a one bedroom instead of a studio this year. This was a couple hours into first day of 11 month window. I have never experienced that before. I'm a planner so know short trips are a thing of the past unless I get very lucky. Still love my DVC though

 

[Wakey]

When we purchased, I was pretty aware of the trends you listed....so we ensured we had the points to get 1 BR for all our stays. So far, that has served us well.

Yes a great strategy is buy twice the points SSR resale. I did that, and can basically book anywhere when I go in summer at 7 months. No problems.

 

[mousehockey37]

I am more inclined to believe it is the increased demand for studios and the fact that those cabins and bungalows are huge point sinks that most owners can not afford.

Most renters don't know too book at 7 months.

I'd beg to differ. Look at those that rent on here from owners, and those that rent from the 3 main sites. Business is boomin'.

 

[DougEMG]

I'd beg to differ. Look at those that rent on here from owners, and those that rent from the 3 main sites. Business is boomin'.

Without hard numbers no one can prove what is causing the problem at 7 months.

But look at the POLY, 25% of all the points sold there come from the bungalows. Do you think that 25% of the POLY owners even have enough points to book a bungalow? I don't think so. So somewhere between 0 to 25% of POLY owners will be looking for other accommodations at 7 months. That doesn't even take into account those owners that want to switch out to a 1 or 2 bedroom because the POLY doesn't have them or who want to stay in a cheaper room.

DVC is suppose to be operating at full capacity. The only way renters take away capacity is if owners were letting their points expire unused. Was that happening at such a high rate that it made that much of a difference? I doubt it.

One other thing that is causing low availability at 7 months is thaT for direct buyers, the vast majority buy the current resort that is being sold. But a sizeable number of people buying resale buy the resort that they want. When I bought BWV resale, I bought it because I wanted to use those points at that resort. I've always used them to book at 11 months and have never trade out with them. I am pretty sure the original owner of those points did not use them the same way. So as more and more points change hands to new owners who specifically want a particular resort, there are going to be less rooms available at 7 months.

More and more the advice is turning towards "buy where you want to stay". If everyone does this, no one will be trading out.

Best advice is that if you can't book before 7 months, buy enough points to stay in a 1 bedroom because they always have the best availability no matter when you look.

 

[DougEMG]

I just looked at BWV for Aug. Only 1 night left in the entire month for a standard studio, but the 1 bed garden view has every single night available. Looks like most people like cheap rooms.

What I hate is when DVC moved to allowing 5 in a studio. They should never have done that and instead had 5 for 1 bedrooms only and spread some of the demand around.

 

[luckyman_apd]

I just looked at BWV for Aug. Only 1 night left in the entire month for a standard studio, but the 1 bed garden view has every single night available. Looks like most people like cheap rooms.

What I hate is when DVC moved to allowing 5 in a studio. They should never have done that and instead had 5 for 11 bedrooms only android spread some of the demand around.

I hadn't thought about the increase to 5 in a studio. We purchased with studio's in mind as we have 2 kids. Prior to the Murphy bed additions you are right ....a family of 5 needed a 2 br. If they had added the Murphy bed to 1br.....that definitely would have put more booking pressure to the 1 br and less on studios

 

[dd08]

What I hate is when DVC moved to allowing 5 in a studio. They should never have done that and instead had 5 for 1 bedrooms only and spread some of the demand around.

As a family who always goes for 1-BR, we are selfishly happy with this Current model

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I just looked at BWV for Aug. Only 1 night left in the entire month for a standard studio, but the 1 bed garden view has every single night available. Looks like most people like cheap rooms.

What I hate is when DVC moved to allowing 5 in a studio. They should never have done that and instead had 5 for 11 bedrooms only android spread some of the demand around.

Casual observation but I think that the studios at VWL became much more difficult to book after that change. I didn't like it then and I don't like it now. Fine for the resorts that started with it but I think it brought a meaningful shift to existing resorts when it was done.

 

[Jelly563]

7 months, 3 months or 1 month out.... SSR has openings. That means the SSR owners are not booking SSR. They go ANYWHERE else. Since it is a bigger resort, there are more owners trying to go elsewhere and they clog up all of the other resorts. OKW is also large, but they seem to have a loyal fan base of owners who only stay in their preferred OKW locations. I only stay there if we can get HH area, but since we dont own there, it usually fills up.

I own at VGF and do not even attempt to check on availability unless it is more than 7 months out. Most of the time, only 1br's are available (sometimes the 2br higher point lakeview) So you cant blame the SSR army on that. I think those are owners who hold something so they dont get shut out and have to stay at SSR or AKV. I mostly go in the fall or sometimes around spring break, summertime is too hot to wait in those lines. I dont think VGF is as busy as Poly tho because they always seem to have nothing but bungalows available. You can book for cash all the time but not DVC.

 

[cmarsh31]

I really, really hope they put another sleeping surface option into SSR. For my family of 4, we'd choose SSR over OKW if the bedding configuration was different. Might also help take the pressure off of BRV. Otherwise we own at AKV, and have been very successful booking the value rooms. If I have to share a bed with my DD, it might as well be for fewer points. I'd choose any room with a murphy bed or chair sleeper for a few more points.

 

[DSLRuser]

I've always used them to book at 11 months and have never trade out with them. I am pretty sure the original owner of those points did not use them the same way. So as more and more points change hands to new owners who specifically want a particular resort, there are going to be less rooms available at 7 months.

More and more the advice is turning towards "buy where you want to stay". If everyone does this, no one will be trading out.

Best advice is that if you can't book before 7 months, buy enough points to stay in a 1 bedroom because they always have the best availability no matter when you look.

The one issue when we bought is the problem you talk about here. We are a very very busy family. It is virtually impossible for me to decide where I am going to vacation 11-14 months in advance. Much less to decide the exact dates in order to book at the 11 month window.

now...3-6 months out, we have a much clearer view of our schedule and that is when we can book.

Maybe it will be better when we get older and the kids are adults.

 

[3 Hobbits 2 Disney]

I really, really hope they put another sleeping surface option into SSR. For my family of 4, we'd choose SSR over OKW if the bedding configuration was different. Might also help take the pressure off of BRV. Otherwise we own at AKV, and have been very successful booking the value rooms. If I have to share a bed with my DD, it might as well be for fewer points. I'd choose any room with a murphy bed or chair sleeper for a few more points.

Leave my SSR alone. The resort we bought with associated MF have been managed reasonably well by DVD. I don’t want the additional wear and tear associated increase in MF caused by additional bodies squeezed into a studio space.

 

[Sammie]

It just a combo of many factors. One where you want to stay, when you are going and what size unit you want. I got a two bedroom at BVC at 7 months for Food and Wine.

 

[TexasChick123]

The one issue when we bought is the problem you talk about here. We are a very very busy family. It is virtually impossible for me to decide where I am going to vacation 11-14 months in advance. Much less to decide the exact dates in order to book at the 11 month window.

now...3-6 months out, we have a much clearer view of our schedule and that is when we can book.

Maybe it will be better when we get older and the kids are adults.

Not to be ugly, but timeshares are generally for people who like to plan way in advance. I don't know that I would pay the premium if I was relying on availability 3-6 months out. We are also a very busy family, but we just set aside the time. Just about everyone that is working and/or has kids in school has a much better view of their lives 3-6 months out than 11 months out. This is coming from someone who makes a schedule for a group at the hospital. We can only make that schedule 90 days out because people can quit and have to give 90 days notice. To make it further out is creating more work for me if someone quits because I would then have to scramble to fill the shifts. However, if you are in the "I don't care where we stay as long as we go to Disney" boat, then this can work out just fine.

 

[DSLRuser]

However, if you are in the "I don't care where we stay as long as we go to Disney" boat, then this can work out just fine.

We are, with the exception of Value resorts. Wont due that. But DVC is DVC, sure there is a pecking order, but most will do. And we don't mind paying extra points for 1BR or a view if it is required to get the room.

 

[ClapYourHands]

Yes a great strategy is buy twice the points SSR resale. I did that, and can basically book anywhere when I go in summer at 7 months. No problems.

Then wouldn't an even better strategy be to buy even cheaper resale points from Vero Beach, and then just plan to use them on larger units at 7 months? They're selling for half of what some of the more in-demand resorts do.

 

[Dean]

Then wouldn't an even better strategy be to buy even cheaper resale points from Vero Beach, and then just plan to use them on larger units at 7 months? They're selling for half of what some of the more in-demand resorts do.

VB is a great property and owning to use there and at WDW can be a great and viable option, but the long term cost of VB will be more than the long term cost of SSR. At the end of the ROFR for VB, assuming a 3.5% inflation rate, you'd pay as much for VB just in dues as you'd pay for SSR purchase plus dues. Even if you truly invest the difference up front, about the best you could do would be to break even. But you'd have several negatives compared to SSR FOR WDW, you'd have more risk of loss if there were a catastrophe, you would not have the 11 month window, you'd have more risk for dues to increase at a faster rate, you'd have something worth proportionately less best case scenario and you'd be ending in 2042. When I ran the numbers recently I used a $30 pp spread between VB & SSR. That assumes one is not buying a subsidized VB contract, the numbers would be different since the buy in would be more but the dues less.

I also ran AKV & BLT a the same time. I used the same buy in price for AKV as SSR and a $65 spread for BLT. At 2042 both were also considerably cheaper than VB and with those assumptions almost identical in cost but BLT would be cheaper than AKV further in. You have all the differences compared to VB I mentioned above. Each of those 4 properties have advantages and disadvantages owning there. The specific advantages are the 11 month window for each and esp for BLT & AKV, the cheaper and specialty views. IF one bought AKV to use mostly for value AND bought the fewer points, it becomes cheaper at some point than owning at SSR and using for AKV standard. The last time I did the calculation one had to use 2/3 of the points for value consistently just to break even compared to owning at SSR and using for standard view there. The same principles would apply to BLT standard but I haven't run the actual numbers for when BLT would be cheaper than SSR in this situation. Just ball parking it I'd suspect one would have to use BLT 80% of the time or more at standard and buy the fewer points to break even compared to SSR used for Lake View there.

All of those assumptions also ignore the fact you likely would get the cheaper or specialty view at the other resort (value/standard) at some point. The other advantages to buying SSR are there are a ton of resales comparatively speaking making it easier to find the perfect contract as well as to get a fully loaded contract and to negotiate a good price. There is a tipping point where VB would make sense but currently it appears to be getting VB for free or less.