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[sethschroeder]

We are not talking about you personally. Most people do not maximize every single point every single year.

And I am not building a model off people losing points. They as an individual need to account for that just like they need to account for housekeeping if they want.

That's you, purely personal. Fact is -- Housekeeping comes with cash rooms, and it has an objective value.
Should I deduct the value of Magic Express and transportation, if I always use a rental car?

In your personal equation yes you can account for it but there is no monetary value if you rent a car regardless. Housekeeping is NOT included in DVC and is outlined in pretty much every "what do I need to know about DVC" post. If someone wants housekeeping they account for that personally. I am making math equations based on standard usage of the system as outlined not exceptions which people need to account for personally.

And as shown, there is only about a 7% savings over 21 years.

Its not again you used the worst category with the worst Points vs Cash time period (Value Cash vs Mid Tier Points).

The primary category people look to book is Studio and for 1BR the standard response is "SAPs are normally fine".

PIN codes circulating with 40% and more!

And PIN codes are PERSONAL codes not just a discount anyone can grab. Also did you verify they are for BCV? People can go years without getting a PIN Code. Also those discount are for very specific times of year and for limited numbers of rooms.

Did you actually check as well or just look and it said a discount range for Villas at which point BCV is not for sure included or included at the higher rate. Normally from what I have witnessed that is left to places like SSR, AKV, and Wilderness for the highest discounting percentage.

There was free dining every year

Depends on if you would use the dining package or not since that eliminates any room discount and what actual food costs would be for you.

It is NOT the ONLY reason people suggest direct membership.

Its the primary reason so yes not the only one because there are soft benefits but the normal response is about Annual Passes being the only tangible benefit that impacts your savings.

main reason to buy direct is to have full access to all current and future resorts

Ya no not really its not even close to the primary benefit. Again we are talking about the math here on savings. Staying at Riviera and potential future resorts is not a tangible cost savings benefit since the comments will be you can rent your points out and just get RIV transfer points for a year you want to stay there as an example.

Okay.... and now I'll design a situation where you actually lose tons of money. Point is, don't create hypothetical situations, and then generalize that situation to all buyers.

Its the primary cost savings. You already took the worst point vs cash dates possible with the start of February. I am not sure what you don't get if you don't buy APs then most people are going to say buy Resale because its going to be guaranteed cheaper with no real difference.

And I can point to a time of year with free dining, and show it's 30% cheaper to book cash rooms. I can factor in housekeeping, point leakage, etc. And show it's 40-50% cheaper to book cash rooms!

Then do that personally. You have zero clue if free dining will ever be offered again because Dining Plans are even on hold right now.

Point Leakage, Housekeeping, ect are all personal costs and should be accounted for when looking at your personal comparison of what makes sense. It should not be included in baseline math.

Its why my math didn't include the APs.

renting points vs buying points, it's only a 7% savings over 21 years

Except renting points likely has more point leakage likely than buying points because you have zero control on the reservation. With owning the contract you essentially have 730 days to use 1/2 your points and 1095 days to use the other 1/2 of your points by borrowing.

 

[sethschroeder]

How about the primary benefit of NOT being locked in to anything, and getting to book when the best discounts are available? Booking only when you want, only when discounts like free dining are offered.

So in that case let me shift it to September 1-8th for the math on a DVC purchase then?

1. Basic math per night
   1. DVC Cheapest: September 1-8
   2. 14 Points for Studio / 27 Points for 1BR / 38 points for 2BR
   3. Cash Cheapest: Value #1 (Jan 3-6, Jan 10-14, Jan 18-Feb 10)
   4. With current 35% Discount Nightly Avg: Studio $406.41 / 1BR $605.17 / 2BR $909.05 (Feb 1-8)
   5. Rack Rate for Free Dining Nightly Avg: Studio $520.71 / 1BR $776.25 / 2BR $1,165.98
2. Using your $382.50/point total for 21 years
   1. $5,355.00 DVC Studio / $10,327.50 DVC 1BR / $14,535.00 DVC 2BR
   2. $8,534.61 Cash Studio / $12,708.57 Cash 1BR / $19,090.05 Cash 2BR
   3. DVC Studio saves 37% / DVC 1BR saves 18% / DVC 2BR saves 23%
3. Free Dining Option (Without Room Discount)
   1. $10,934.91 Cash Studio / $16,301.25 Cash 1BR / $24,485.58 Cash 2BR
   2. DVC Studio saves 51% / DVC 1BR saves 36% / DVC 2BR saves 40%
   3. Per Day Difference without Free Dining (Food Budget for Breakeven): Studio $265.71 / 1BR $284.46 / 2BR $473.83

You can see if you can reliably get Free Dining during the cheaper Value Period in Cash Rooms its more likely that you can come out ahead. It would be Standard Free Dining which is $78.01/day for Adults and $30.51/day for Children ($217.04 for 2 Adults + 2 Children) ($156.02 for 2 Adults) ($312.04 for 4 Adults). Individuals would have to do their own math as many people will outline that the Dining Plan value is over estimated compared to what you would spend on cash.

 

[havoc315]

And I am not building a model off people losing points. They as an individual need to account for that just like they need to account for housekeeping if they want.

In your personal equation yes you can account for it but there is no monetary value if you rent a car regardless. Housekeeping is NOT included in DVC and is outlined in pretty much every "what do I need to know about DVC" post. If someone wants housekeeping they account for that personally. I am making math equations based on standard usage of the system as outlined not exceptions which people need to account for personally.

But housekeeping IS INCLUDED in cash rooms. So if you are comparing cash rooms to point rooms, you need to factor in that benefit.
There is a HUGE difference between, "both reservations are the same, but the DVC reservation is 10% cheaper!" AND, "the DVC reservation is 10% cheaper because the cost of housekeeping has been removed"

Its not again you used the worst category with the worst Points vs Cash time period (Value Cash vs Mid Tier Points).

The primary category people look to book is Studio and for 1BR the standard response is "SAPs are normally fine".

First, you're confusing cause and effect. There is a strong demand for 1 bedrooms -- which is why they are priced higher. The lower pricing of studios, drives people to studios.

But there is a very simple clear cut mathematical way to compare, completely eliminating considerations like room type, seasonality, discounts: Simply compare point renting versus point buying. Since points go for $20 per point rental basically year round, that eliminates all your seasonality adjustments, room type adjustments, etc.

And once again, the value of buying direct at BCV versus just renting points... only 7% over the 21 years.

And PIN codes are PERSONAL codes not just a discount anyone can grab. Also did you verify they are for BCV? People can go years without getting a PIN Code. Also those discount are for very specific times of year and for limited numbers of rooms.

Did you actually check as well or just look and it said a discount range for Villas at which point BCV is not for sure included or included at the higher rate. Normally from what I have witnessed that is left to places like SSR, AKV, and Wilderness for the highest discounting percentage.

Depends on if you would use the dining package or not since that eliminates any room discount and what actual food costs would be for you.

All the more reason that an honest discussion would compare point rental vs point purchase.

Its the primary reason so yes not the only one because there are soft benefits but the normal response is about Annual Passes being the only tangible benefit that impacts your savings.

Ya no not really its not even close to the primary benefit. Again we are talking about the math here on savings. Staying at Riviera and potential future resorts is not a tangible cost savings benefit since the comments will be you can rent your points out and just get RIV transfer points for a year you want to stay there as an example.

You're being very selective about which tangible and intangible benefits you're willing to consider. Housekeeping is a TANGIBLE benefit to a cash room, but you want to throw that out. Free dining is a tangible benefit, but you want to throw that out. Meanwhile, you have wanted to consider some of the intangible benefits of direct ownership, like greater flexibility in re-scheduling trips.

You're absolutely right -- ability to stay at future resorts is not an economic benefit of purchase. But if this decision was driven solely by economics, then the answer would be to stay off property, all the time.

Its the primary cost savings. You already took the worst point vs cash dates possible with the start of February. I am not sure what you don't get if you don't buy APs then most people are going to say buy Resale because its going to be guaranteed cheaper with no real difference.

I disagree entirely. Resale restrictions are a HUGE real difference. If your preferred home resort is Riviera -- Buying resale limits you to just that 1 resort. The ability to use just 1 resort, versus all resorts -- that's a HUGE real difference.

Then do that personally. You have zero clue if free dining will ever be offered again because Dining Plans are even on hold right now.

Yet, you want to include APs.. when you have zero clue if they will return, with what type of discount, how far into the future that discount will run.

We can only calculate based on what is currently known: 35% cash room discounts. (Who knows, they could get even bigger in the future.. 40% discounts might become the norm in the future).

Except renting points likely has more point leakage likely than buying points because you have zero control on the reservation. With owning the contract you essentially have 730 days to use 1/2 your points and 1095 days to use the other 1/2 of your points by borrowing.

That makes zero sense. There is no point leakage renting, if you go through a reputable company. You rent just the points you need. No risk of buying 200 points but only using 189 of them. No risk of points expiring.

 

[havoc315]

So in that case let me shift it to September 1-8th for the math on a DVC purchase then?

1. Basic math per night
   1. DVC Cheapest: September 1-8
   2. 14 Points for Studio / 27 Points for 1BR / 38 points for 2BR
   3. Cash Cheapest: Value #1 (Jan 3-6, Jan 10-14, Jan 18-Feb 10)
   4. With current 35% Discount Nightly Avg: Studio $406.41 / 1BR $605.17 / 2BR $909.05 (Feb 1-8)
   5. Rack Rate for Free Dining Nightly Avg: Studio $520.71 / 1BR $776.25 / 2BR $1,165.98
2. Using your $382.50/point total for 21 years
   1. $5,355.00 DVC Studio / $10,327.50 DVC 1BR / $14,535.00 DVC 2BR
   2. $8,534.61 Cash Studio / $12,708.57 Cash 1BR / $19,090.05 Cash 2BR
      

1. 1. 
      
      Now let's do point rental:
      $5,880 point rental studio / $11,340 point rental 1BR / $15,960 point rental 2BR
      
      Savings of DVC ownership vs point rental at BCV over 21 years, if you maximize every single point:
      Studio -- 8.9%
      1 BR: 8.9%
      2 BR -- 8.9%
      
      So is an 8.9% lifetime savings worth a 21-year-investment? That's the question.

 

[sethschroeder]

1. 1. 
      
      Now let's do point rental:
      $5,880 point rental studio / $11,340 point rental 1BR / $15,960 point rental 2BR
      
      Savings of DVC ownership vs point rental at BCV over 21 years, if you maximize every single point:
      Studio -- 8.9%
      1 BR: 8.9%
      2 BR -- 8.9%
      
      So is an 8.9% lifetime savings worth a 21-year-investment? That's the question.

Well its 8.9% savings and complete control over your reservation/points. Its an individual decision on how much that control is worth to them.

 

[sethschroeder]

But housekeeping IS INCLUDED in cash rooms.

Could simply account for removing housekeeping from your Cash reservation which is worth $8.57/night for 7 nights in discounting (no $10/night on last night). So you likely could account for it in that. That would be around 1%-2% in difference?

Again with all of the extra aspects I don't view it primary to a basic comparison in cost. If we start dealing with difference in cost of housekeeping then we need to start to account for things like AP savings. There are plenty of threads on in depth cost analysis though with things like increases, inflation, investing initial cost.

There is a strong demand for 1 bedrooms -- which is why they are priced higher. The lower pricing of studios, drives people to studios.

1 Bedrooms are larger with a kitchen so they are just more points. If it was based on strong demand for the 1BR they wouldn't be the last room category to book across the board at every resort.

People would stay in a GV if it was cheaper as well.

You're being very selective about which tangible and intangible benefits you're willing to consider. Housekeeping is a TANGIBLE benefit to a cash room, but you want to throw that out. Free dining is a tangible benefit, but you want to throw that out. Meanwhile, you have wanted to consider some of the intangible benefits of direct ownership, like greater flexibility in re-scheduling trips.

I never built in the flexibility to the math. I never built AP discounts in to the math. So no there is no difference. I said you should personally account for all those extra differences. I was simply pointing out AP discounts because again its really the primary reason to be buying direct and is the absolute primary reason regarding tangible discounts for DVC. If you are not getting APs then go resale if you are buying BCV.

I disagree entirely. Resale restrictions are a HUGE real difference. If your preferred home resort is Riviera -- Buying resale limits you to just that 1 resort. The ability to use just 1 resort, versus all resorts -- that's a HUGE real difference.

But we are talking about BCV and if you are buying at BCV you are staying at BCV for likely 19 of the next 21 years. In the 1 or 2 off years you stay at a new resort you rent out your points and get transfer points.

Its a bigger thing if buying at RIV but the math also is completely different at RIV as well. I bought for $155/point direct at RIV back in August.

Yet, you want to include APs.. when you have zero clue if they will return, with what type of discount, how far into the future that discount will run.

We can only calculate based on what is currently known: 35% cash room discounts. (Who knows, they could get even bigger in the future.. 40% discounts might become the norm in the future).

AP renewals are still being allowed including new APs for people who have expired APs with the DVC discount.

There has always been ticket discounts for DVC and there has been a AP Discount since 2005.

On the flip side unless I am missing it 35% is not a standard discount for Beach or Yacht. All the math still was done with the 35% discount I was simply pointing out that 35% might not actually be what people would get.

That makes zero sense. There is no point leakage renting, if you go through a reputable company.

In the sense you lose points/cash there absolutely is. Ask all the people with reservations this year that got no money back or possibly a small refund of the larger total they paid cash for.

Those individual essential purchased the points off a member and then couldn't use them and lost all the money or a large chunk of what they paid. Thats my takeaway from your point leakage as you call it where you have unused points expire.

 

[havoc315]

Well its 8.9% savings and complete control over your reservation/points. Its an individual decision on how much that control is worth to them.

There we differ. Renting points: Complete control over if and when you rent points. No need to ever rent more points than you'll actually use. But very little ability to change after you book.
Owning: Flexibility to shift around reservations after booking. But limited control in the number of points year to year. If you decide you want to skip WDW from 2026-2029, you still have to pay for all those points. If you only use 193 out of 200 points that you had banked, you're just going to lose those last 7 points. If you pass your use year deadline, you have to use or lose your points.
And of course, renting points lets you book ALL resorts 11 months out.
So I'd say renting points overall gives far more control than owning. Though I'll fully acknowledge there are some ways that owning gives more control.

 

[havoc315]

Could simply account for removing housekeeping from your Cash reservation which is worth $8.57/night for 7 nights in discounting (no $10/night on last night). So you likely could account for it in that. That would be around 1%-2% in difference?

We are going in circles, so I'm not going to bother responding to most. Want to wind this down.

But where the heck did you get $8.57 per night?!?!?
Last I checked, studio house keeping was $30 per night, 1 BR was $45, and 2 BR was $60 per night.

So that's more like a 50-10% difference, not 1-2%.

 

[sethschroeder]

If you only use 193 out of 200 points that you had banked, you're just going to lose those last 7 points.

So you plan on not losing them or transferring them before they are banked. Hence why most people are in the camp of borrowing not banking points on your contract.

If you are not willing to be borrowing points and planning out in advance you will end up with lost points. I can't control others not being smart with their points and using them all. Lots of ways to avoid any lots points and if you are borrowing its unlikely you ever have "left over points".

So I'd say renting points overall gives far more control than owning.

Depends with ownership you could purchase transfer points at another resort to book yourself a stay and control the points. At the same time you could rent out your points to cover that cost as well.

When I am talking about control I am talking about post booking because on both DVC and Cash we are comparing annual trip costs. If you plan on skipping trips in the future DVC might not be right, possibly renting points is right, or possibly selling your DVC contract is right when that time comes.

But where the heck did you get $8.57 per night?!?!?
Last I checked, studio house keeping was $30 per night, 1 BR was $45, and 2 BR was $60 per night.

I was talking about if you wanted to "remove housekeeping". You are saying if you want housekeeping added while I am outlining the Cash side benefit of declining housekeeping. I am going off the assumption that a small number of individuals add housekeeping except in a very rare circumstance. (I could be wrong on that one its just a guess)

When you decline housekeeping you get $10/night excluding the night before checkout (since they have to clean the room anyways). So on a 7 day stay you would get a $60 e-gift card which is $8.57 per night of credit on the cash side.

We are going in circles

I think it comes down to us not comparing things at the same "level". I am talking about the most basic math, you are talking about a little more advanced math with things like housekeeping added in, while I think if you are adding in things like housekeeping then you might as well go fully in depth on the cost analysis.

I view it as hard to really show math without running things very specific to each circumstance and individual. I also find it hard to just compare direct vs renting vs cash without accounting for resale if you don't want APs at a 2042 resort.

A major personal flaw is wanting to exhaust the smallest of details on topics to the point of being seriously overkill. You can probably tell.

 

[havoc315]

So you plan on not losing them or transferring them before they are banked. Hence why most people are in the camp of borrowing not banking points on your contract.

If you are not willing to be borrowing points and planning out in advance you will end up with lost points. I can't control others not being smart with their points and using them all. Lots of ways to avoid any lots points and if you are borrowing its unlikely you ever have "left over points".

Depends with ownership you could purchase transfer points at another resort to book yourself a stay and control the points. At the same time you could rent out your points to cover that cost as well.

When I am talking about control I am talking about post booking because on both DVC and Cash we are comparing annual trip costs. If you plan on skipping trips in the future DVC might not be right, possibly renting points is right, or possibly selling your DVC contract is right when that time comes.

I was talking about if you wanted to "remove housekeeping". You are saying if you want housekeeping added while I am outlining the Cash side benefit of declining housekeeping. I am going off the assumption that a small number of individuals add housekeeping except in a very rare circumstance. (I could be wrong on that one its just a guess)

When you decline housekeeping you get $10/night excluding the night before checkout (since they have to clean the room anyways). So on a 7 day stay you would get a $60 e-gift card which is $8.57 per night of credit on the cash side.

I think it comes down to us not comparing things at the same "level". I am talking about the most basic math, you are talking about a little more advanced math with things like housekeeping added in, while I think if you are adding in things like housekeeping then you might as well go fully in depth on the cost analysis.

I view it as hard to really show math without running things very specific to each circumstance and individual. I also find it hard to just compare direct vs renting vs cash without accounting for resale if you don't want APs at a 2042 resort.

A major personal flaw is wanting to exhaust the smallest of details on topics to the point of being seriously overkill. You can probably tell.

I guess I'm the same way with exhausting details -- all good to get passionately into details.

Housekeeping add-on is a different $$$ than housekeeping removal. Suppose average the 2 numbers as an analyzed value?

Resale value, if you're going to keep BCV until 2042, will be zero. Simplest analysis is to assume contract through expiration.

Remember, if you sell your BCV contract, in 2035, for example, you won't be getting 21 years of value. Further, resale value will likely be very low by then. You'll likely get less value in re-sale, than just using the points yourself. (for simplest demonstration.. assume it is 2041, you have a contract with 1-year worth of points remaining. Putting aside inflation, by your own math, booking a studio, you could get about $30 of value per point. Of course, a person can rent points for $20 per point. You still would have annual dues for 1 year of about $7.50. And the buyer would have closing costs. Maybe, paying $1-$5 per point, they might break even after closing costs. ) I'd have to get into more detail, including breaking down closing costs, to figure out exactly when resale becomes totally ridiculous. But certainly, the last 2-3 years, resale would be absurd. And the last 10 years, resale will have greatly diminished value.

Again, to keep the math simplest.... the best apples to apples comparison is simply renting points versus buying points.
You're saying -- with adequate planning, point leakage is a non-issue. Well, with proper planning, locking in a point-rental is also a non-issue.
No matter how you slice it, when looking at control/flexibility issues, locking yourself into a 20+ year contract doesn't INCREASE your flexibility and control. By its nature, purchasing a DVC contract limits your flexibility and control. In theory, in exchange for giving up flexibility and control, you're getting significant savings over the lifetime of the contract.

And purchasing *direct* from BCV, you won't get those significant savings. 8.9% versus renting points. I wouldn't consider that to be significant. (most direct and resale contracts can easily lead to 30-50% savings). Yes, you can increase the savings with blue card perks like AP purchases (IF they return). But you can do that with a direct purchase at any resort.

Now in general... not specific to DVC... There are unknowns that can increase savings significantly. If the price of rooms continues to grow exponentially faster than dues increases (which would have the side effect of increasing prices for point rentals), savings could grow by a lot. But you can't ignore the possibility, over the next 20 to 50 years, that the opposite occurs. Theme parks lose their luster, demand for on-site resorts drops, prices generally decline (or increase far more slowly). While I think the former is more likely than the latter, they are both possible.

 

[sethschroeder]

But you can do that with a direct purchase at any resort.

Ya it's primarily why I outline my purchase price in RIV direct because my view is obviously slanted on direct based on the $155 price.

INCREASE your flexibility and control.

Ya sorry if I misspoke. Less flexibility, more control of the reservation, and more predictable cost (good or bad). Is my view.

I have less flexibility to just skip a trip all together without hoops to rent out my points.

My upside is that in 20-30 years I should have easily broken even and be getting a good deal.

AP purchases (IF they return)

Zero doubt some ticket discount will exist and I will save money it's been a thing forever. Might save more or less on an annual basis but have 50 years of discounts.

Without a good feeling about at least 10 years of AP discounts I would have stayed only resale with BWV.

 

[MJ NH]

How about those cyber deals? Or something else to distract the conversation!

 

[Vulnox]

We pulled the trigger on RIV back in Feb, but backed out in March because both my wife and I were sent to work at home due to COVID, and we weren't certain where things were headed for both our employment and just general economy. While Covid is hardly gone, far from it, we at least have a better sense of our own continued job security and with the appearance of brighter days ahead, have started looking back into DVC.

The current incentives are decent, it looks like they basically match in the end what we paid in Feb, but I can't get over the hanging balloon of those Summer incentives, which would make pulling the trigger a no-brainer. I feel like I remember reading back in my early days of research that getting DVC to budge on pricing is almost impossible, you can negotiate for a FW, maybe change your UY, but the price is the price. Am I wrong on that? If I tell them we want 200 points, but only if we can get approval for the summer incentives, will they just smile and shake their head? My strong suspicion is yeah, they would rather we walk than match previous incentives, but figure it doesn't hurt to ask around here.

Thank you, all!

 

[striker1064]

We pulled the trigger on RIV back in Feb, but backed out in March because both my wife and I were sent to work at home due to COVID, and we weren't certain where things were headed for both our employment and just general economy. While Covid is hardly gone, far from it, we at least have a better sense of our own continued job security and with the appearance of brighter days ahead, have started looking back into DVC.

The current incentives are decent, it looks like they basically match in the end what we paid in Feb, but I can't get over the hanging balloon of those Summer incentives, which would make pulling the trigger a no-brainer. I feel like I remember reading back in my early days of research that getting DVC to budge on pricing is almost impossible, you can negotiate for a FW, maybe change your UY, but the price is the price. Am I wrong on that? If I tell them we want 200 points, but only if we can get approval for the summer incentives, will they just smile and shake their head? My strong suspicion is yeah, they would rather we walk than match previous incentives, but figure it doesn't hurt to ask around here.

Thank you, all!

Unfortunately your intutition is correct, they will not match previous incentives or bargain on price. The price is the price, and it changes every time incentives roll over (or price increases go into effect).

 

[Vulnox]

Unfortunately your intutition is correct, they will not match previous incentives or bargain on price. The price is the price, and it changes every time incentives roll over (or price increases go into effect).

Darn! Wish I was paying more attention over the summer. Thanks for the quick reply. Probably leaning towards a wait and see I guess, maybe the next few months of increasing lockdowns will make Disney more flexible, but I suspect they are already planning for a post-vaccine 2021 and have priced in the next few months regardless. A company like that is always thinking years ahead.

 

[CastAStone]

Darn! Wish I was paying more attention over the summer. Thanks for the quick reply. Probably leaning towards a wait and see I guess, maybe the next few months of increasing lockdowns will make Disney more flexible, but I suspect they are already planning for a post-vaccine 2021 and have priced in the next few months regardless. A company like that is always thinking years ahead.

As someone whose job involves doing something very similar, I imagine they probably have penciled in plans through September, but are really planning things 1 promotion out; e.g. the next promotion is probably planned, and the one after is probably being designed and/or approved.

 

[i<3riviera]

͏

 

[Vulnox]

We have been on the bleeding edge of pulling the trigger on 200 points at RIV, but just can't get ourselves past how good the incentives are we missed over the summer, and the current incentives even with boost are exactly the same we were offered this past February. Think we will just see where the next couple months lead with concerns over unemployment benefits expiring and everything else, if it starts hurting DVC Direct even more than around the shutdown they may pump up incentives. If not, we at least can save up a bit more money for our eventual trigger pull.

Hopefully they don't breach the $200/pt and cut incentives before we go in, guess it's always the risk. I think when we toured things in November 2019 it was around $177/pt before incentives, kind of wish we had done it then.

 

[sethschroeder]

just a reminder for anyone considering these offers, the additional 3-5 USD discount expires tomorrow (4 Dec 2020) for new members (haven't joined DVC yet); for existing members it's a week from Friday (11 Dec 2020)

the rest of the incentives are expected to last until 5 Feb 2020 so you won't miss out on the full discount, just this short term extra

I wouldn't rush to chase 3-5 USD a point; however, if you're close to making a decision, it may be worth finishing your analysis by Friday; but don't listen to me, you do you

There are Christmas incentives releasing next week per a source as well (also common sense). If you were to purchase now you could always rewrite your contract next week if the new incentives were better.

 

[sethschroeder]

We have been on the bleeding edge of pulling the trigger on 200 points at RIV, but just can't get ourselves past how good the incentives are we missed over the summer, and the current incentives even with boost are exactly the same we were offered this past February. Think we will just see where the next couple months lead with concerns over unemployment benefits expiring and everything else, if it starts hurting DVC Direct even more than around the shutdown they may pump up incentives. If not, we at least can save up a bit more money for our eventual trigger pull.

Hopefully they don't breach the $200/pt and cut incentives before we go in, guess it's always the risk. I think when we toured things in November 2019 it was around $177/pt before incentives, kind of wish we had done it then.

I am not sure they cut costs to be honest and its doubtful the summer incentives come back or are beat. When I bought 300 back in August I couldn't really find a generally available price that would have been lower (there were CM/Military discounts lower but I don't qualify for either).

I personally think we will see a price increase in January with new incentives to offset some of the increase. I just think Disney is viewing this as a long term philosophy that they can point back to to help push sales as people know the pricing will only go up.

Yes more unemployment could be coming but its been a fairly steady return to work since April with 6 straight months of lowering of the Unemployment rate. Long term yes there might some uptick but in 2009/10 as an example it was over 10% unemployment while we are back down in the 6% range. New numbers for November get posted tomorrow to see if its 7 months straight of gains (not sure haven't followed it that closely myself).