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[masupo]

Of course -- I ended up adding on 25 more direct points at BCV so I could have longer stays...and then added on 150 at RIV...but we will ignore those costs.

This is the way.

So say we all

 

[mustinjourney]

BCV and BWV resale prices will drop. Mathematical certainty. But might not really start to happen for a few more years.
Imagine it's 2041 -- BCV contract expires Jan 31, 2042. You want to stay at BVC in late 2041.... Why would you pay $120 per point, for points you're only going to use one time? (plus 1 year of annual fees). At current prices, you can just rent those points for $20.
And same keeps working backwards... in 2040... no semi-rational person would pay more than $40 per point, since you can only use them twice.. Throw in annual dues, and you'd be losing even more money.
Continuing backwards, we can see that approximately 2030-2032 would be the last chance to buy BCV/BWV points and "break even."
But of course, a big incentive of DVC is to "save" money on future vacations. So probably not enough demand solely for "break even." So I'd suspect prices to start dropping by the mid to late 2020's, and by the mid 2030's, for those contracts to have very low resale value.

I'd only buy BCV/BWV right now if I planned to just keep it for the next 22 years. If I was eying, "own it for 10 years and then sell..." then BCV/BWV could be very risky.

it will also depend on how much a cash reservation costs at beach club in 22 years.

More than likely though -- an owner would be better off just renting out the final couple years of points or transferring them to someone else rather than go through the hassle of selling the contract and taking the additional 8-10% hit from the listing agent.

 

[havoc315]

it will also depend on how much a cash reservation costs at beach club in 22 years.

More than likely though -- an owner would be better off just renting out the final couple years of points or transferring them to someone else rather than go through the hassle of selling the contract and taking the additional 8-10% hit from the listing agent.

That's the point... No matter the price of a cash room.. when you have only 1 year of points left, the re-sale value isn't going to be higher than the value of 1 year's worth of points.
So yes, as you said.. if the owner wants to get rid of the contract in the last several years, renting it out will be more profitable than re-sale.

 

[CastAStone]

BCV and BWV resale prices will drop. Mathematical certainty. But might not really start to happen for a few more years.
Imagine it's 2041 -- BCV contract expires Jan 31, 2042. You want to stay at BVC in late 2041.... Why would you pay $120 per point, for points you're only going to use one time? (plus 1 year of annual fees). At current prices, you can just rent those points for $20.
And same keeps working backwards... in 2040... no semi-rational person would pay more than $40 per point, since you can only use them twice.. Throw in annual dues, and you'd be losing even more money.
Continuing backwards, we can see that approximately 2030-2032 would be the last chance to buy BCV/BWV points and "break even."
But of course, a big incentive of DVC is to "save" money on future vacations. So probably not enough demand solely for "break even." So I'd suspect prices to start dropping by the mid to late 2020's, and by the mid 2030's, for those contracts to have very low resale value.

I'd only buy BCV/BWV right now if I planned to just keep it for the next 22 years. If I was eying, "own it for 10 years and then sell..." then BCV/BWV could be very risky.

I’d argue it’s already priced in. Boardwalk has way too good of a location and point chart to be priced in the $110s - except that it has 20 fewer years remaining than most of the other resorts it’s comparable to. Beach Club is expensive but I’d bet it would be $150-$160 instead of $135-$145 if it expired in 2060. Those resorts if you discount future years for inflation etc should be losing about 2-3% of their value each year (relative to, say, the MK area resorts). It’s been hard to see them lose value as the entire program has gotten more expensive in the last 5 years, but on a relative basis, they have, particularly BWV (and for that matter BRV). To your point, they will be losing value in far larger chunks by 2030.

I think 4-5 years from now though when a family leaving Disney World after their first trip with their 5 year old and their 3 Year old Looks at the 2042 resorts and realizes they won’t get all of their kids through High School, that’s when you might see a drop.

it will also depend on how much a cash reservation costs at beach club in 22 years.

Beach Club Villas pricing is completely disconnected from Beach Club cash reservation costs. Beach Club and Yacht Club are the middle tier of Deluxe prices, more than AKL and WL but less than everything else. But in DVC would BCV is one of the most expensive.

BCV is - by far - the hardest resort to justify a DVC purchase at, and I’d argue a direct BCV purchase is mathematically unjustifiable financially, and can only be purchased the way you’d purchase a $9 chocolate bar or a $150 bottle of bourbon or a $4000 couch or a $70000 car, all of which are also unjustifiable financially, but can be justified emotionally if you have the disposable income.

 

[mustinjourney]

I’d argue it’s already priced in. Boardwalk has way too good of a location and point chart to be priced in the $110s - except that it has 20 fewer years remaining than most of the other resorts it’s comparable to. Beach Club is expensive but I’d bet it would be $150-$160 instead of $135-$145 if it expired in 2060. Those resorts if you discount future years for inflation etc should be losing about 2-3% of their value each year (relative to, say, the MK area resorts). It’s been hard to see them lose value as the entire program has gotten more expensive in the last 5 years, but on a relative basis, they have, particularly BWV (and for that matter BRV). To your point, they will be losing value in far larger chunks by 2030.

I think 4-5 years from now though when a family leaving Disney World after their first trip with their 5 year old and their 3 Year old Looks at the 2042 resorts and realizes they won’t get all of their kids through High School, that’s when you might see a drop.

Beach Club Villas pricing is completely disconnected from Beach Club cash reservation costs. Beach Club and Yacht Club are the middle tier of Deluxe prices, more than AKL and WL but less than everything else. But in DVC would BCV is one of the most expensive.

BCV is - by far - the hardest resort to justify a DVC purchase at, and I’d argue a direct BCV purchase is mathematically unjustifiable financially, and can only be purchased the way you’d purchase a $9 chocolate bar or a $150 bottle of bourbon or a $4000 couch or a $70000 car, all of which are also unjustifiable financially, but can be justified emotionally if you have the disposable income.

I agree that BCV direct cost makes zero economic sense. Clearly -- DVD has very little desire in trying to sell it direct. Their thought is that they don't want to mess with it -- but if someone is adamant enough to want it -- they will sell it to them at an exorbitant price.

Additionally -- pricing it well above Riviera makes Riviera look like a much better value.


With all that said -- you could argue that this pricing structure is not smart, b/c if Riviera is supposed to be positioned as the flagship hotel of DHS/Epcot -- then it needs to be priced higher than anything in that area -- but by pricing BWV/BCV higher than RIV via direct (and possibly resale given the restrictions), it might make people perceive it to be less prestigious/nice/luxurious than BCV/BWV.

 

[striker1064]

With all that said -- you could argue that this pricing structure is not smart, b/c if Riviera is supposed to be positioned as the flagship hotel of DHS/Epcot -- then it needs to be priced higher than anything in that area -- but by pricing BWV/BCV higher than RIV via direct (and possibly resale given the restrictions), it might make people perceive it to be less prestigious/nice/luxurious than BCV/BWV.

They've priced this way forever though. When CCV was in active sales, PVB/VGF were still priced higher despite also being MK resorts. And same with PVB, other sold out monorail resorts were priced higher. It didn't drive down demand for the active resort or make it less nice - it's just what they do.

 

[havoc315]

I’d argue it’s already priced in. Boardwalk has way too good of a location and point chart to be priced in the $110s - except that it has 20 fewer years remaining than most of the other resorts it’s comparable to. Beach Club is expensive but I’d bet it would be $150-$160 instead of $135-$145 if it expired in 2060. Those resorts if you discount future years for inflation etc should be losing about 2-3% of their value each year (relative to, say, the MK area resorts). It’s been hard to see them lose value as the entire program has gotten more expensive in the last 5 years, but on a relative basis, they have, particularly BWV (and for that matter BRV). To your point, they will be losing value in far larger chunks by 2030.

I think 4-5 years from now though when a family leaving Disney World after their first trip with their 5 year old and their 3 Year old Looks at the 2042 resorts and realizes they won’t get all of their kids through High School, that’s when you might see a drop.

Beach Club Villas pricing is completely disconnected from Beach Club cash reservation costs. Beach Club and Yacht Club are the middle tier of Deluxe prices, more than AKL and WL but less than everything else. But in DVC would BCV is one of the most expensive.

BCV is - by far - the hardest resort to justify a DVC purchase at, and I’d argue a direct BCV purchase is mathematically unjustifiable financially, and can only be purchased the way you’d purchase a $9 chocolate bar or a $150 bottle of bourbon or a $4000 couch or a $70000 car, all of which are also unjustifiable financially, but can be justified emotionally if you have the disposable income.

But here is what makes it unjustifiable, even on emotion:

The ONLY direct purchase benefit of BCV versus buying another resort direct, is the ability to book at BCV at 11 months. All the other benefits you can get with buying at another resort.
But you can just rent points for BCV at 11 months... pay $20 per point. For another 21 years, that would be $420 per point at 2020 dollars.
Buying direct would be $235 per point plus $7.43 per year in dues: $391 total.

A potential 7% savings isn’t enough to justify a 21 year investment.

 

[CastAStone]

But here is what makes it unjustifiable, even on emotion:

The ONLY direct purchase benefit of BCV versus buying another resort direct, is the ability to book at BCV at 11 months. All the other benefits you can get with buying at another resort.
But you can just rent points for BCV at 11 months... pay $20 per point. For another 21 years, that would be $420 per point at 2020 dollars.
Buying direct would be $235 per point plus $7.43 per year in dues: $391 total.

A potential 7% savings isn’t enough to justify a 21 year investment.

But Havoc I WANT IT. I absolutely HAVE to have it or I’ll die.

My point is we’ve all bought things that we don’t need just because we want them. That’s the only way to justify a BCV direct purchase, IMO. Would you be better off stashing your money in an investment account and either renting points or getting a 30-35% deal off cash room? Yes. But then you wouldn’t be a Member.

 

[sethschroeder]

A potential 7% savings isn’t enough to justify a 21 year investment.

Compare to cash prices with discounts.

It's not fair comparing to rentals where you have zero control.

Expect in 20 years a need to move a reservation or cancel a couple times. Also no clue what long term rental rates would be at BCV as every year more people rent and learn about renting. Overall doesn't impact pricing but could eliminate availability of BCV specific rentals.

If I was 100% okay with rentals long term that absolutely would be the play. There is a negative though with banking on rentals for the next 20+ years.

 

[havoc315]

Compare to cash prices with discounts.

It's not fair comparing to rentals where you have zero control.

Expect in 20 years a need to move a reservation or cancel a couple times. Also no clue what long term rental rates would be at BCV as every year more people rent and learn about renting. Overall doesn't impact pricing but could eliminate availability of BCV specific rentals.

If I was 100% okay with rentals long term that absolutely would be the play. There is a negative though with banking on rentals for the next 20+ years.

As more DVC is sold, rental availability will only increase. This will also be exacerbated by people in later years of their contracts. Someone who bought their contract at the age of 35, may find they are using their points less often when they are 70. Some will sell their contracts but some will just rent out their points more often.

Now rental rates will likely increase, but so will annual dues.

Now you’re right that renting points isn’t as flexible as owning points — in some ways. Tends to a non-refundable situation. Once you book, can’t really change.

On the other hand, owning a contract is far less flexible than renting points in other ways.
Renting points — you can just pay for exactly what you need, when you need.
What happens when you own 200 points but only use 197? Cant bank into eternity, not easy to rent out just 3 points. So you’re eating the loss on those points.
Or what happens when you choose not to take any DVC trips from 2025-2027? Sure, can rent out the points... but then likely only getting $12-15 per point.
Basically, if you lose a handful of points over the years to expiration... and rent out your points a few years....
Then direct purchase ends up being significantly MORE expensive than just renting points when you need them. (At BCV direct purchases with limited contract duration).

 

[havoc315]

But Havoc I WANT IT. I absolutely HAVE to have it or I’ll die.

My point is we’ve all bought things that we don’t need just because we want them. That’s the only way to justify a BCV direct purchase, IMO. Would you be better off stashing your money in an investment account and either renting points or getting a 30-35% deal off cash room? Yes. But then you wouldn’t be a Member.

I don’t really disagree with you.
But the same can be said for just about EVERY DVC purchase. It’s more an emotional purchase than a rational financial planning decision.
But at least with most DVC purchases, there is a reasonable degree of potential savings to rationalize the purchase. Might not be the BEST way to use your money, but it’s not foolish.

Now you’re absolutely right, might still be some people who “have to own” a BCV direct purchase. But it’s a tough decision to rationalize in any way. It’s almost like insisting on paying extra... Trading a dollar bill for 3 quarters.

 

[havoc315]

Compare to cash prices with discounts.

It's not fair comparing to rentals where you have zero control.

Expect in 20 years a need to move a reservation or cancel a couple times. Also no clue what long term rental rates would be at BCV as every year more people rent and learn about renting. Overall doesn't impact pricing but could eliminate availability of BCV specific rentals.

If I was 100% okay with rentals long term that absolutely would be the play. There is a negative though with banking on rentals for the next 20+ years.

As you suggested, I ran a comparison of discounted cash rates.
With discounts, a 1 BR at BCV in Feb 2021 comes out to $628 per night (with tax)
It would be about 36 points per night.

So 21 years, 1 night per year, paying cash: $13,188
Buying 36 points plus annual dues for 21 years:
$13,770, 1 night per year.

So for BCV— paying cash is CHEAPER than buying DVC, and much more flexible.

Now some caveats— discounts for early 2021 are steeper than usual. But they aren’t THAT much steeper. Future prices are unknown. But future annual dues are also somewhat unknown.

 

[sethschroeder]

So for BCV— paying cash is CHEAPER

A couple points which change things:

1. 35% discount on BCV is not a standard discount and typically you will be at 25%-30% for Beach or Yacht (per www.mousesavers.com)
2. Dates will change things
   1. 1BR in February (11-18) was $865.90/night w/ Tax vs 1BR in February (1-8) was $605.17/night w/ tax
   2. You can see a huge shift in cash pricing based on rate seasons
   3. It would only be 2 more points or 0.7% more expensive vs 30% more if paying cash
3. Most people are buying for studios or 2BRs when buying for home resort points
4. Your math of $382.50 per point is incorrect it would be $156.24 for 21 years of MFs + $159 avg resale price = $315.24
   1. You can not account for MF increases and not account for what will be a larger increase on cash rates
   2. Cash rates will always outpace MFs long term since MFs are simply about costs of running the resort while Cash rates account for increases of running the resort plus increased profitability for Disney
5. Most people are buying for studios or 2BRs when buying for home resort points
6. Basic math per night
   1. Using the cheaper cash range of February 1-8 you would be at
   2. 17 Points for Studio / 45 points for 2BR
   3. $406.41/night Studio / $909.05/night 2BR
7. Using your $382.50/point total for 21 years for the cheaper cash rate dates of February 1-8
   1. 17 Points for Studio / 45 points for 2BR
   2. $406.41/night Studio / $909.05/night 2BR
   3. $6,502.50 DVC Studio 21 Years / $17,212.50 DVC Studio 21 Years
   4. $8,534.61 Cash Studio 21 Years / $19,090.05 Cash 2BR 21 Years
   5. DVC Studio saves 24% / DVC 2BR saves 10%
8. Using the $315.24/point total for 21 years
   1. $5,359.08 DVC Studio 21 Years / $14,185.80 DVC Studio 21 Years
   2. $8,534.61 Cash Studio 21 Years / $19,090.05 Cash 2BR 21 Years
   3. DVC Studio saves 37% / DVC 2BR saves 25%

Not saying this is all correct but just basing it on your simplistic math breakdown. I think many will say a 1BR is one of the worse values as well and if you do book 1BRs typically many will say SSR is fine since they are the last rooms to fill up.

I might have typo'd the quick pricing workup so let me know if something doesn't come out correctly. My math also doesn't account for things like inflation or the "cost" of the initial cash outlay.

 

[havoc315]

A couple points which change things:

-35% discount on BCV is not a standard discount and typically you will be at 25%-30% for Beach or Yacht (per www.mousesavers.com)

Read my post— I acknowledged that 35% is slightly more than typical. But the difference between 30% and 35% isn’t huge.

-Dates will change things

Of course. Some days, savings will be even less. Some more.

-Most people are buying for studios or 2BRs when buying for home resort points

Not my experience at all. Speaking for myself and other owners I know personally, 1 BR is the preferred unit.


-Your math of $382.50 per point is incorrect it would be $156.24 for 21 years of MFs + $159 avg resale price = $315.24

Wrong. Read the post. The whole discussion is whether DIRECT purchase is economical. That’s $225 per point, not $159.

-You can not account for MF increases and not account for what will be a larger increase on cash rates

Wrong again. I specifically said both are unknowns. On average, cash rates have grown more than annual dues. But no guarantee of that for the future. In fact, for 2021, annual dues have increased MORE than room rack rates at WDW.
Rack rates have grown so quickly in the past, they may be hitting their limits with much slower increases in the future.

 

[sethschroeder]

Not my experience at all. Speaking for myself and other owners I know personally, 1 BR is the preferred unit.

Its factual though. Studios go first and are the most popular by a wide margin and then 2BRs end up disappearing (partly because lots of 2BRs are lock offs).

With 1BRs most of the year you can get most hotels at 7 months. Its the safest sleep around points available.

Wrong. Read the post. The whole discussion is whether DIRECT purchase is economical. That’s $225 per point, not $159.

I was wrong forgot the original comment was regarding about direct.

But the difference between 30% and 35% isn’t huge.

Well its 5% so that not nothing and it takes the Studio savings from 19% to 24% on DVC Direct vs Cash prices.

 

[CastAStone]

A couple points which change things:

1. 35% discount on BCV is not a standard discount and typically you will be at 25%-30% for Beach or Yacht (per www.mousesavers.com)
2. Dates will change things
   1. 1BR in February (11-18) was $865.90/night w/ Tax vs 1BR in February (1-8) was $605.17/night w/ tax
   2. You can see a huge shift in cash pricing based on rate seasons
   3. It would only be 2 more points or 0.7% more expensive vs 30% more if paying cash
3. Most people are buying for studios or 2BRs when buying for home resort points
4. Your math of $382.50 per point is incorrect it would be $156.24 for 21 years of MFs + $159 avg resale price = $315.24
   1. You can not account for MF increases and not account for what will be a larger increase on cash rates
   2. Cash rates will always outpace MFs long term since MFs are simply about costs of running the resort while Cash rates account for increases of running the resort plus increased profitability for Disney
5. Most people are buying for studios or 2BRs when buying for home resort points
6. Basic math per night
   1. Using the cheaper cash range of February 1-8 you would be at
   2. 17 Points for Studio / 45 points for 2BR
   3. $406.41/night Studio / $909.05/night 2BR
7. Using your $382.50/point total for 21 years for the cheaper cash rate dates of February 1-8
   1. 17 Points for Studio / 45 points for 2BR
   2. $406.41/night Studio / $909.05/night 2BR
   3. $6,502.50 DVC Studio 21 Years / $17,212.50 DVC Studio 21 Years
   4. $8,534.61 Cash Studio 21 Years / $19,090.05 Cash 2BR 21 Years
   5. DVC Studio saves 24% / DVC 2BR saves 10%
8. Using the $315.24/point total for 21 years
   1. $5,359.08 DVC Studio 21 Years / $14,185.80 DVC Studio 21 Years
   2. $8,534.61 Cash Studio 21 Years / $19,090.05 Cash 2BR 21 Years
   3. DVC Studio saves 37% / DVC 2BR saves 25%

Not saying this is all correct but just basing it on your simplistic math breakdown. I think many will say a 1BR is one of the worse values as well and if you do book 1BRs typically many will say SSR is fine since they are the last rooms to fill up.

I might have typo'd the quick pricing workup so let me know if something doesn't come out correctly. My math also doesn't account for things like inflation or the "cost" of the initial cash outlay.

I’m not totally following all of your post, but the savings you note at the end for a 2BR (10-25%) doesn’t seem as worth it to me for the risk posed by the program, and we know 1BR paybacks are worse, and in any case, we were talking direct, which if I’m reading your post correctly, you were using resale pricing. So I think we can probably all agree that BCV is worth it resale for a studio if you get a good deal on the contract. But it’s certainly, as I think was the point way back at the beginning, the hardest resort to make the math work on.

OTOH the shorter contract limits your downside risk in several important ways, so that’s something!

 

[sethschroeder]

we were talking direct

Yup I crossed out but left the original comment as editing out would make @havoc315 's post look strange since he was calling out I was incorrect which I was.

With direct pricing it was 24% saving on Studios and 10% on 2BRs.

I would say though that we also used the cheapest Cash rate (Value) while using the 4th of 7 most expensive DVC season. So its going to throw the math off. As pointed out if we shifted the stay back an additional week so we picked up President weekend the cash rates would increase dramatically while point requirements would stay the same.

But it’s certainly, as I think was the point way back at the beginning, the hardest resort to make the math work on.

Yup for sure. For me any of the 2042 resorts don't really make sense for direct.

I would add we didn't account for the primary direct purchase benefit in AP savings. That will shift the savings around. It also is really the only reason people suggest a direct purchase. With 4-6 APs for our family obviously it can add up quickly.

 

[havoc315]

Its...

I don't think we are in serious disagreement but you're missing some key points:

First off, when talking about tight margins, it's a mistake to ignore what I'll call "point leakage." Your math assumes never wasting a point over 21 years. No points allowed to expire. No points rented out, bringing back less than full value. When talking about the possibility of 10% savings in 2-bedrooms over 21 years, much of that can easily get erased by mere leakage.

Second, you're assuming a cash room vs points is apples to apples. It's not. Cash rooms include daily housekeeping, which is not included with points. I forget the most recent upcharge for housekeeping, but it would likely wipe away 10% of value. (Yes, you can say you personally don't care about housekeeping. But that opens up a whole discussion about not caring about a kitchenette, etc. Objectively, housekeeping gives the cash rooms a higher value than a points room).

Third, yes we are talking about direct purchases. Resale prices are determined on a free market. Thus, they will always have some fair value. If sellers tried to price their BCV re-sale contracts at a price where a buyer wouldn't get any value, then they wouldn't find buyers. On the other hand, in setting direct prices, Disney may have other motives beyond simple free-market-supply-demand. They may intentionally overprice some properties, in order to steer customers to other properties. I suspect even when we hit 2035, BCV resale prices will become sufficiently low (like $50 per point), so that a buyer can still get some value.

Fourth, when looking at cash values, you immediately dismissed the 35% discount as outside the norm. I acknowledge it's slightly higher than typical. But for people who plan their trips specifically around discounts, they can actually get discounts far bigger. If you can snag free dining, and you have 4 Disney "adults" in the room, then the discount is MUCH bigger than 35%.

Fifth, I wouldn't factor AP discounts heavily into the equation. They are currently suspended. No guarantee they will return, when they will return, and whether they will continue into eternity. And not everyone buys direct just for the AP discount. I bought Riviera direct and have no interest in buying APs. (We paid $170 per point direct... We considered BLT resale, would have been $145 per point. But for the $25 per point difference, we got the home resort we most wanted, we got 10 years more than BLT, we got the ability to use future resorts, and we did get the blue card perks. Even if we never purchase an AP, those factors were worth the extra $25 to us).

Add it all up, what do you get? A BCV direct purchase is unlikely to provide any significant savings over the remaining 21 years. Sure, if you exclusively book studios, which are a better value, you might get some modest degree of savings. Booking 1-2 bedrooms, you may end up actually spending more than simple cash rooms. Best case scenario is a very minor level of savings.
I'd compare it to this -- Would you buy your 2041 groceries now, if offered a 5-10% discount? (BCV direct) Probably not. Would you pre-pay your 2041 groceries now, if offered a 40-60% discount? Maybe... and this is the situation with most other property direct and resale purchases.

 

[sethschroeder]

To be clear I don't think really any 2042 resort is a good deal or a good idea to buy direct.

I'll call "point leakage." Your math assumes never wasting a point over 21 years. No points allowed to expire. No points rented out, bringing back less than full value.

Because I won't lose points? I would also say the few points I might end up losing would also be offset by not being able to get a 35% discount (which is not normal) and by changes in when you travel (like I said you are comparing the Value Cash rate vs the mid-tier DVC point rate.

Cash rooms include daily housekeeping, which is not included with points

Which when I travel (and I travel a ton for work just not currently) I put the DND sign on the door day 1 and don't take it off until I leave. Its assumed you know the difference between DVC and Cash rooms.

Housekeeping should be a personal account not a overarching cost built in to baseline math.

Fourth, when looking at cash values, you immediately dismissed the 35% discount as outside the norm

Because its NOT normal. You can easily go back in time at www.mousesavers.com find discounts offered and then crosscheck if they were offered and at what rate for BCV.

Fifth, I wouldn't factor AP discounts heavily into the equation.

Except that is the primary and only reason people suggest direct membership. So you can't say "well direct membership makes no sense" when removing the primary cost savings benefit.

Again not building it in to the baseline math but each family should run those numbers to get an idea of savings. That is $900 to $1400/yr if buying APs every other year for a family of 4-6 based on current prices.

Add it all up, what do you get?

You mean if ignoring the primary benefits of DVC which are locked in room rates as opposed to fluctuating discounts that might not be offered at certain times and not accounting for the primary cost savings benefit of direct membership?

I'd compare it to this -- Would you buy your 2041 groceries now, if offered a 5-10% discount?

Except you are not getting 5-10% as outlined it can be 24% on Studios (which is the primary driver for home resort purchasing). Its also again not even the math showed by you in what is basically one of the worst DVC vs Cash comparisons because its Value Cash Season vs Mid Tier Point Season. I can easily find other seasons where its drastically flipped.

All of that without accounting for the extra $900-$1400 extra I am going to save on APs. Which equates to $19k-$30k over the 21 year period. No I don't build it in to very basic math but it also needs to be accounted for if you want to categorically just say "you are only saving X%".

 

[havoc315]

Because I won't lose points? I would also say the few points I might end up losing would also be offset by not being able to get a 35% discount (which is not normal) and by changes in when you travel (like I said you are comparing the Value Cash rate vs the mid-tier DVC point rate.

We are not talking about you personally. Most people do not maximize every single point every single year.

Which when I travel (and I travel a ton for work just not currently) I put the DND sign on the door day 1 and don't take it off until I leave. Its assumed you know the difference between DVC and Cash rooms.

Housekeeping should be a personal account not a overarching cost built in to baseline math.

That's you, purely personal. Fact is -- Housekeeping comes with cash rooms, and it has an objective value.
Should I deduct the value of Magic Express and transportation, if I always use a rental car?
Fact is, it's part of the value.
And that's why the best comparison is point rental vs purchase. That is more of an apples to apples comparison. And as shown, there is only about a 7% savings over 21 years.

Because its NOT normal. You can easily go back in time at www.mousesavers.com find discounts offered and then crosscheck if they were offered and at what rate for BCV.

I checked! And there were lots of discounts much bigger than 35%!! There was free dining every year, which can be MUCH bigger than 35%!!
In fact, right now, there are PIN codes circulating with 40% and more!
And almost every year, you can find 35% discounts offered at some point. So yes, 35% is at the higher end of the normal spectrum for general public discounts. But there are even much bigger discounts offered every year (free dining).

Except that is the primary and only reason people suggest direct membership. So you can't say "well direct membership makes no sense" when removing the primary cost savings benefit.

Stop over generalizing. It is NOT the ONLY reason people suggest direct membership. I purchased direct, I recommend direct to others (depending on certain preferences), and I have ZERO interest in APs. Nowadays, the main reason to buy direct is to have full access to all current and future resorts. That's the primary reason.
And even if you personally don't see that as the primary reason, even you can't deny it is a SIGNIFICANT reason.

Again not building it in to the baseline math but each family should run those numbers to get an idea of savings. That is $900 to $1400/yr if buying APs every other year for a family of 4-6 based on current prices.

Okay.... and now I'll design a situation where you actually lose tons of money. Point is, don't create hypothetical situations, and then generalize that situation to all buyers.

You mean if ignoring the primary benefits of DVC which are locked in room rates as opposed to fluctuating discounts that might not be offered at certain times and not accounting for the primary cost savings benefit of direct membership?

You like talking about something that's a primary benefit to you, and then just assuming it's a primary benefit to all people.
How about the primary benefit of NOT being locked in to anything, and getting to book when the best discounts are available? Booking only when you want, only when discounts like free dining are offered.

Except you are not getting 5-10% as outlined it can be 24% on Studios (which is the primary driver for home resort purchasing). Its also again not even the math showed by you in what is basically one of the worst DVC vs Cash comparisons because its Value Cash Season vs Mid Tier Point Season. I can easily find other seasons where its drastically flipped.

And I can point to a time of year with free dining, and show it's 30% cheaper to book cash rooms. I can factor in housekeeping, point leakage, etc. And show it's 40-50% cheaper to book cash rooms!

If we stick to true apples to apples -- renting points vs buying points, it's only a 7% savings over 21 years. That's without factoring in leakage, which would reduce this savings even more. It's also without factoring in annual dues increasing, rental price increases, etc. Which can cause the savings to fluctuate in either direction.