Coronavirus and DCL Megathread - Suspension of Departures for the fleet until early November. Booking only available from early December.

[xavier2001]

They said this is not currently a refundable cruise. She had us move it to a far out dummy cruise to keep the onboard benefits. Then, we rebooked the original cruise that is now $1,400 cheaper on a VGT rate.

So you cancelled and rebooked the same exact cruise but at the GT rate? I’m surprised they are allowing that.

 

[fredandkell]

Thanks Lisa. When DCL offered the option to cancel, and after my dad's doctor chatting with him, it wasn't even a hard decision to make. My wife and I are feeling a bit melancholy today, but we already started looking at the Magic and what it has to offer (We've only ever sailed on the Fantasy). So its a bit like starting over again.. but 8 months really isn't *that* long to wait.. (is it?)

Our family loves the Magic! I like it the same as Dream class but my husband greatly prefers Magic over Dream class. You’ll have a great time if you choose it.

 

[MarkLT1]

Our family loves the Magic! I like it the same as Dream class but my husband greatly prefers Magic over Dream class. You’ll have a great time if you choose it.

Great to hear. I've been watching some youtube vlogs, etc.. and the Magic looks like an awesome ship! The smaller crowds/fewer people on Castaway also looks like a great perk for the Magic class ships. Also our youngest is a HUGE Avengers/Marvel fan, so I think he'll love the Oceaneers Club.

 

[ruadisneyfan2]

I don't think I called world leaders and the WHO insane did I? I said the hype is insane and we have the media and flame throwers on social media to thank for that.

I agree completely.
Do people realize that over 10,000 people have died of the regular flu this winter? This is not even an outrageous year; just another typical winter in the US. If the media followed every newly diagnosed person and every death due to the flu, to this same degree that they are following COVID, people would be panicking every winter. Yet, there are still plenty of people who refuse to get a flu shot because it's all about "big pharma" poisoning people and making money. There are plenty others who walk right out of the bathroom without washing their hands. Not care in the world.

The only reason the COVID death rate was higher in China is because they were the first to experience it, so it took some time to realize what they were dealing with, and they don't have enough hospital beds for their massive population. For current health care standards in the US, the death rate is less than 1%. Not 1% of our population, 1% of those who tested positive for COVID. Most who died were elderly or had other contributing conditions such as lung disease. If you're young and healthy, the odds of dying from COVID are incredibly low. Media doesn't interview those 99+% who recover and move on with their lives. Why not? I wonder what a 30 yr recovered person has to say about it. Did it feel like a bad cold for a few days? I personally believe the media is not about presenting helpful truths to us, the public; they're all about ratings and shock value.

We have every intention of sailing on our 3/28 cruise but I do plan to avoid contact with my father after we return, just to be cautious, because he is 78 and has COPD.

 

[Starwind]

And more info at link below...

The official called the ships "huge incubators" and said older cruise ship passengers could be especially vulnerable.

The Canadian government has actually said it:

QUOTE
Canada's chief public health officer is warning travellers, especially the elderly and those with fragile health, to reconsider going on cruises after cases of the coronavirus were confirmed on a cruise ship which has Canadians on board.

"Think twice about going on cruise ships," said Dr. Theresa Tam on Friday, noting they "present environments where COVID-19 can spread easily given close contacts between passengers and crew for significant periods of time."

Tam said that even if people on a cruise do not contract the virus they could be quarantined by destination countries for extended periods of time, increasing the risk of infection.
END QUOTE

source: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/coronavirus-cruise-grand-princess-1.5489320

In addition, the CDC has increased their advice for those at higher risk of COVID-19 complications [ https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/specific-groups/high-risk-complications.html ]:

(note from that CDC page you can get to a lot of other excellent information, including preparing your household, how to care for someone who is sick, etc)

QUOTE

What to do if you are at higher risk:

• Stay at home as much as possible.
• Make sure you have access to several weeks of medications and supplies in case you need to stay home for prolonged periods of time.
• When you go out in public, keep away from others who are sick, limit close contact and wash your hands often.
• Avoid crowds.
• Stay up to date on CDC Travel Health Notices.

Who is at Higher Risk
Older adults and people who have severe chronic medical conditions like heart, lung or kidney disease seem to be at higher risk for more serious COVID-19 illness. Early data suggest older people are twice as likely to have serious COVID-19 illness. This may be because:

• As people age, their immune systems change, making it harder for their body to fight off diseases and infection.
• Many older adults are also more likely to have underlying health conditions that make it harder to cope with and recover from illness.

If a COVID-19 outbreak happens in your community, it could last for a long time. Depending on the severity of the outbreak, public health officials may recommend community actions to reduce exposures to COVID-19. These actions can slow the spread and reduce the impact of disease.
If you are at increased risk for COVID-19 complications due to age or because you have a severe underlying medical condition, it is especially important for you to take actions to reduce your risk of exposure.

END QUOTE

 

[MarkLT1]

For current health care standards in the US, the death rate is less than 1%. Not 1% of our population, 1% of those who tested positive for COVID.

I have to ask.. where are you getting these numbers? The number of people who has tested positive, and the number of deaths in the US is widely available. As of right now, those numbers are 376 confirmed positive, with 14 deaths. Which comes out to 3.7%. I agree with you, that this number will likely come down, but as of the hard numbers we have right now, the rate of deaths per positive case is well above 1% in the US.

 

[smmco]

I have to ask.. where are you getting these numbers? The number of people who has tested positive, and the number of deaths in the US is widely available. As of right now, those numbers are 376 confirmed positive, with 14 deaths. Which comes out to 3.7%. I agree with you, that this number will likely come down, but as of the hard numbers we have right now, the rate of deaths per positive case is well above 1% in the US.

we aren’t testing in this country so all stats mean nothing.

 

[MarkLT1]

we aren’t testing in this country so all stats mean nothing.

And what does that have to do with the price of beans? PP was claiming (direct quoting here) :

the death rate is less than 1%. Not 1% of our population, 1% of those who tested positive for COVID

Which is simply false- the number of deaths/those who tested positive for COVID is 3.7%, not less than 1%. That is what I was addressing.

 

[Lisa F]

I have to ask.. where are you getting these numbers? The number of people who has tested positive, and the number of deaths in the US is widely available. As of right now, those numbers are 376 confirmed positive, with 14 deaths. Which comes out to 3.7%. I agree with you, that this number will likely come down, but as of the hard numbers we have right now, the rate of deaths per positive case is well above 1% in the US.

The WHO sent 25 experts to China who came back and wrote a report saying that OUTSIDE of Wuhan in areas where the healthcare system is not completely overwhelmed, the fatality rate was 0.7%. Distrust for China aside, at this point they have the highest capacity to test and the most reported cases because of that so the numbers corroborated by the WHO of cases in China but outside of Wuhan are probably some of the more accurate, having a lot larger sample size than other countries do. A lot have speculated all along that the mortality rate seems much higher because of inability to test. I mean, the mortality rate in the US is at about 5% or more right now but that number's not very good for much since we know they are not testing here.

That said if this thing spreads to EVERYONE even 0.7% is a pretty high number of deaths - the one thing China did was lock down the whole region, the WHO is crediting that with containing the spread BUT there is no way that happens here.

I posted a link to a summary on REDDIT that also linked the full PDF text of the report.

It still definitely confirms people over 70 are very disproportionately hard hit and over 80 even more so.

Here are a couple of quotes I found interesting but you should at least read the whole summary if not the whole document. 1.6 MILLION test kits per week and we have only tested a few hundred in weeks. We will have NO idea what the numbers are here until we can test people at the same rate China can. I think any similarity in mortality rate in Europe or the USA is purely coincidental as none of them have nearly enough cases confirmed to have realistic numbers. You can't go by a few hundred tests and make sweeping generalizations. Hundreds of thousands of people being tested gives a much better idea of the big picture.

China can now produce 1.6 million test kits for the novel coronavirus per week. The test delivers a result on the same day. Across the country, anyone who goes to the doctor with a fever is screened for the virus: In Guangdong province, far from Wuhan, 320,000 people have been tested, and 0.14% of those were positive for the virus.

An examination of 44,672 infected people in China showed a fatality rate of 3.4%. Fatality is strongly influenced by age, pre-existing conditions, gender, and especially the response of the health care system.

The fatality rate was 5.8% in Wuhan but 0.7% in other areas of China, which China explained with the lack of critical care beds in Wuhan.

 

[FigmentSpark]

We're on the Fantasy next week. I'm seeing a few more rooms available all of a sudden. A month ago the ship was full. A week ago, a few rooms came open. Today, I see a few more, including the one next to us and some GTY rooms. So for whatever reason, people are cancelling, but I don't think they're cancelling in huge numbers, either.

 

[MarkLT1]

The WHO sent 25 experts to China who came back and wrote a report saying that OUTSIDE of Wuhan in areas where the healthcare system is not completely overwhelmed, the fatality rate was 0.7%. Distrust for China aside, at this point they have the highest capacity to test and the most reported cases because of that so the numbers corroborated by the WHO of cases in China but outside of Wuhan are probably some of the more accurate, having a lot larger sample size. A lot have speculated all along that the mortality rate seems much higher because of inability to test. I mean, the mortality rate in the US is at about 5% or more right now but that number's not very good for much since we know they are not testing here.

I posted a link to a summary on REDDIT that also linked the full PDF text of the report.

that said people over 70 are very disproportionately hard hit and over 80 even more so.

And this is the kind of information to put out there. As I've said in the past, I 100% agree that the current numbers are inflated and will likely go down. Having an engineering/math background, I tend to look at the actual numbers in front of me, as they are the only hard data we currently have. So when someone claims that the hard numbers we have in the US say one thing as PP did, when those current numbers don't say that at all, it gets me. For someone to say "There is evidence that this isn't as bad as it might look" and show evidence, like you just did, to back that up- that is how we get around pure speculation being implied as 'fact' and move to informed speculation/opinion of what the future might bring.

 

[Coffee66]

New York State just declared a state of emergency. One has wonder what's next.

 

[Disney Dad ADL]

Mike Pence is currently meeting with the cruise industry, hopefully we'll have some clarity one way or another soon.

 

[Starwind]

That said if this thing spreads to EVERYONE even 0.7% is a pretty high number of deaths - the one thing China did was lock down the whole region, the WHO is crediting that with containing the spread BUT there is no way that happens here.

...

The fatality rate was 5.8% in Wuhan but 0.7% in other areas of China, which China explained with the lack of critical care beds in Wuhan.

This is the problem. If it spreads far and wide so large numbers of people are getting it, then we will run into a Wuhan-type problem where there is a lack of critical care beds and that will drive up the death rate significantly. That is part of what they are trying to prevent through containment strategies, and what seems to have worked at least to some degree in other parts of China through its use of extreme containment strategies (many of which probably would not be considered acceptable in North America or Europe) which kept infection rates much lower in other areas and therefore the other areas did not have the same degree of overwhelmed medical systems as Wuhan.

 

[Elsa75]

We are sailing next week! We are a relatively young family, and I am not worried about COVID - (more worried about noroviruses!!). I am more worried about how they are managing quarantine. I can't imagine how they think that leaving ships in limbo for 2 weeks is good for anyone - I wish they would focus on getting people off the ships safely for quarantine. I have often wondered what the press would be like to have thousands of little kids hanging in limbo with the prospect of illness. Speaking for myself, any little fever or sore throat in my kids will be promptly medicated and we will keep them separate but no way I am going to raise any alarm that will keep us prisoner for 2-4 weeks.

 

[dhutchin12]

So you cancelled and rebooked the same exact cruise but at the GT rate? I’m surprised they are allowing that.

Our cruise was before our paid in full date and booked using a placeholder. We moved their placeholder to a dummy cruise in the future. We then booked our original cruise using the new VGT rate. This saved us money and we have a placeholder with a deposit sitting on it for a future cruise, along with a 10 percent discount.

 

[xavier2001]

Gotcha. We are inside the PIF date, so I don’t think that will work. Glad you got some savings!

 

[Gentry2004]

We are sailing next week! We are a relatively young family, and I am not worried about COVID - (more worried about noroviruses!!). I am more worried about how they are managing quarantine. I can't imagine how they think that leaving ships in limbo for 2 weeks is good for anyone - I wish they would focus on getting people off the ships safely for quarantine. I have often wondered what the press would be like to have thousands of little kids hanging in limbo with the prospect of illness. Speaking for myself, any little fever or sore throat in my kids will be promptly medicated and we will keep them separate but no way I am going to raise any alarm that will keep us prisoner for 2-4 weeks.

I hear what you are saying, but if anyone else on your cruise gets sick, the whole boat will be quarantined (onboard or on shore.) That is my fear, not that we get sick, but anyone gets sick.

 

[Elsa75]

I hear what you are saying, but if anyone else on your cruise gets sick, the whole boat will be quarantined (onboard or on shore.) That is my fear, not that we get sick, but anyone gets sick.

Totally agree!! I wonder if there has been any downplaying of illness by crew or guests or captain just to get the heck back into port and get people off. That is certainly going to be my inclination unless someone is DIRELY ill. I can't imagine opening my mouth and ending up stranded unless someone is severely - and I mean severely unwell.

 

[smmco]

Our cruise was before our paid in full date and booked using a placeholder. We moved their placeholder to a dummy cruise in the future. We then booked our original cruise using the new VGT rate. This saved us money and we have a placeholder with a deposit sitting on it for a future cruise, along with a 10 percent discount.

Smart to do that. I’m before PIF date but already paid in full. I’m not worried about the virus. My biggest concern now is getting the best deal. If I GT rate doesn’t come out before my PIF date I may have to move my cruise and wait and see. I’m also looking at Norwegian. All the great deals out there I feel like I’m really overpaying for this cruise at the current price.
If I hadn’t jumped the gun paying it off I’d do what you did.