i think that there would lol be a significant increase in the number of resale Riviera owners that will not be able to use their points each year. . . . . This might be enough to make a lot of people not want resale, which is what Disney wants. I expect that all new resorts will follow this model , including the rebranding of the L14 when they eventually expire.
If I've learned anything it's that, with Disney, the prices people are willing to pay are always surprising (even when I'm sure that, this time, I won't be surprised).
I agree. Never said they would get it right. They have been trying to drive people to buy direct instead of resale for a few years now and the first two attempts didn’t seemed to get the results they wanted. So now they are really going to take most of the value (in their opinion) out of resale so people will buy direct.
(Yeah, but it won't REALLY take most of the value out of resales. It will only make resales more competitive.)
You know why I think they can't do it? Because it is still getting a room onsite for less than an onsite cash room reservation. DVC isn't competing like many other timeshares do - with lots of other lodging options and other timeshare nor do they have a country or worldwide system to trade around in. They are competing with Disney hotels for onsite rooms. If anything, the resale price would adjust down a bit with this particular change and then it will be just as appealing as ever to those who want to stay there and are willing to do what they need to get that appealing onsite room. IMO, Disney is fighting a battle against what they are and that's going to be tough to win with the tactics they are taking.
DVC is different from EVERY other Timeshare, because it has the best locations in the world! And that simply will not change.
I know I'm starting to sound like a broken record, but I can't help it. Economics are Economics, no matter how much people (Disney) wishes it was otherwise. The trouble for Disney is this: DVC Contracts, including Resale DVC Contracts, have significant value, independent of what Disney does to restrict them. That value is based on the fact that they can be used to stay in a Disney Resort at a cut rate price. THAT
'Savings' IS THE BEST VALUE IN RESALE CONTRACTS AND IT CAN NEVER BE TAKEN AWAY. Disney MUST make DVC Points economically valuable, or no one would buy into DVC in the first place. And just because Disney then restricts them and throws up roadblocks, does not mean that the DVC points still do not retain value. If a DVC contract will allow you to stay in Riviera,
even if it is ONLY Riviera, for half price, then people are still going to want it. Sure, there will always be an emotional component to this, but in the end, things will average out.
So, once again, even if Disney is able to drive Riviera Resales contracts to 'very low prices,' that just means that more people, who are perfectly happy to stay in Riviera, (OR trade points with someone to stay somewhere else, OR rent out their points and use the money to stay somewhere else,) WILL come hunting for a bargain. And the Resales contracts that produce that bargain
will retain value. So, then Disney will be in the situation of trying to sell Riviera (or Rehab, or whatever is then available) for a high price, while at the same time people can go to Resales, and buy access to the same thing, for a much lower price. And this will, once again, suck the life out of Direct Sales. Sure, there will always be a few people who will buy Direct, either through ignorance, or because they want the
privileges of dealing Directly with Disney. But this Direct market will be an ever shrinking market as more and more 'normal, typical' people switch over to the Resale market, because of the great prices. There are many people who can't really afford to pay the Full Direct Price, but who can afford to buy at resales.
When you look at this, you realize that if Disney stays on this course, they are in a no-win situation. Anything they do to take something away from Resales will only lower the price enough to make Resales more desirable. And both the fact that Resale prices are low (which makes HIGH Direct prices look bad) AND the fact that resales will still be quite valuable, will keep Disney in a Catch-22. The ONLY way Disney can come out ahead on this is to REMOVE Restrictions and try to RAISE the Resale Price, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME, THEY ADD EXTRA, NEW PERKS TO THE DIRECT CONTRACTS, thus making them even more valuable in comparison to the Resales contracts.
So Disney needs to do what is best for them, which also happens to be what is best for everyone else: Remove restrictions from DVC Resales, support a high Resales price, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME THEY
ADD NEW VALUE to Direct points, which new value is independent of anything that has been done with resales, and which is DIFFERENT from any perks that they have given before. Not only will that raise the value of Direct DVC sales, but it will increase the confidence in their customers that Disney WILL take care of them. And thus make them trust Disney more, which will make them buy more. I know that this course will cost Disney a bit. But it can be done at a relatively low cost. Perks such as earlier booking for Direct, more FastPasses, Free Park Hopper upgrades (a lot of them will get annual passes anyway so this won't matter a bit), and similar things. That is the proper course for Disney.
Okay, I am going to stop the lecture, because Disney is not listening anyway.