Are DVC Restrictions Affecting Resale Prices?

The situation seems so poorly thought through by DVC. How will it work to have everyone in the system booking your home hotel when it is the only hotel you can book (if you are resale)? Yes, you will be severely limited and will have to book right at 11 months. To some extent you will also be competing with Riviera direct sale owners.
Unfortunately I wouldn't be so sure DVC didn't think this out already. They can use this to point out to people who may question why buy direct when I can buy resale thousands cheaper? Also we don't even know what the booking rules for this resort will be for the direct and resale buyers. They could put into the language that resale buyers cannot book at 11 months.
 
The situation seems so poorly thought through by DVC. How will it work to have everyone in the system booking your home hotel when it is the only hotel you can book (if you are resale)? Yes, you will be severely limited and will have to book right at 11 months. To some extent you will also be competing with Riviera direct sale owners.

I tend to agree with this. I would not want to be a direct buyer at a resort that the resale buyer would eventually be limited to. I don't think it'll be pretty for anyone.

Unfortunately I wouldn't be so sure DVC didn't think this out already. .

Disney can get things wrong - sometimes very wrong.
 
i think that there would lol be a significant increase in the number of resale Riviera owners that will not be able to use their points each year. I would never buy resale at Riviera unless I could book in the 11-10 month window, otherwise you might not get anything for the days you want. So as a resale owner you are losing a huge part of the point system flexibility.

This might be enough to make a lot of people not want resale, which is what Disney wants. I expect that all new resorts will follow this model , including the rebranding of the L14 when they eventually expire.
 
Maybe people will develop an emotional attachment to Riviera and buy its resale contracts at prices which don't make objective/financial sense, with little effect on the older resort contracts. If people weren't prone to this type of behavior, how else to explain the crazy valuation of the oldest resorts? In terms of dollars per point per year remaining, no person of sound economic mind should ever buy BC or BWV at the current resale prices (with ~23 years left, shouldn't their price-per-point be about HALF of the newest resorts?). But they do buy them. There may be some charming thing which sucks people into irrationality with Riviera, even so irrational as to value its resales at a level approaching those of the newest L14s.

If I've learned anything it's that, with Disney, the prices people are willing to pay are always surprising (even when I'm sure that, this time, I won't be surprised).
 


I tend to agree with this. I would not want to be a direct buyer at a resort that the resale buyer would eventually be limited to. I don't think it'll be pretty for anyone.



Disney can get things wrong - sometimes very wrong.
I agree. Never said they would get it right. They have been trying to drive people to buy direct instead of resale for a few years now and the first two attempts didn’t seemed to get the results they wanted. So now they are really going to take most of the value (in their opinion) out of resale so people will buy direct.
 
I agree. Never said they would get it right. They have been trying to drive people to buy direct instead of resale for a few years now and the first two attempts didn’t seemed to get the results they wanted. So now they are really going to take most of the value (in their opinion) out of resale so people will buy direct.

You know why I think they can't do it? Because it is still getting a room onsite for less than an onsite cash room reservation. DVC isn't competing like many other timeshares do - with lots of other lodging options and other timeshare nor do they have a country or worldwide system to trade around in. They are competing with Disney hotels for onsite rooms. If anything, the resale price would adjust down a bit with this particular change and then it will be just as appealing as ever to those who want to stay there and are willing to do what they need to get that appealing onsite room. IMO, Disney is fighting a battle against what they are and that's going to be tough to win with the tactics they are taking.
 
You know why I think they can't do it? Because it is still getting a room onsite for less than an onsite cash room reservation. DVC isn't competing like many other timeshares do - with lots of other lodging options and other timeshare nor do they have a country or worldwide system to trade around in. They are competing with Disney hotels for onsite rooms. If anything, the resale price would adjust down a bit with this particular change and then it will be just as appealing as ever to those who want to stay there and are willing to do what they need to get that appealing onsite room. IMO, Disney is fighting a battle against what they are and that's going to be tough to win with the tactics they are taking.
Time will tell
 


The thing about Harry Potter is it is child driven. It is the kids who get adults to head to HP at Universal. I do think it is the other way around with SW. And the dvc marketing is all about vacations with your kids. It just doesn't come together for me. But we'll see.
LOL... I guess comic-con is where parents pull up in minions and drop off their children... a multi-million dollar event on several coasts and many major cities.
 
You know why I think they can't do it? Because it is still getting a room onsite for less than an onsite cash room reservation. DVC isn't competing like many other timeshares do - with lots of other lodging options and other timeshare nor do they have a country or worldwide system to trade around in. They are competing with Disney hotels for onsite rooms. If anything, the resale price would adjust down a bit with this particular change and then it will be just as appealing as ever to those who want to stay there and are willing to do what they need to get that appealing onsite room. IMO, Disney is fighting a battle against what they are and that's going to be tough to win with the tactics they are taking.
I agree, I think they are attacking their own product.
 
I agree, I think they are attacking their own product.
What’s interesting is someone got a copy of the updated multi site POS it’s in this thread.

https://www.disboards.com/threads/w...20-reallocation.3726101/page-81#post-60260785

I went to a post directly for you to look at. It appears that contracts owned prior to 1/19/19 when sold will be allowed access to Riviera through one resale only. If that contract is sold again it won’t. So they sort of grandfathered in resale too.
 
What’s interesting is someone got a copy of the updated multi site POS it’s in this thread.

https://www.disboards.com/threads/w...20-reallocation.3726101/page-81#post-60260785

I went to a post directly for you to look at. It appears that contracts owned prior to 1/19/19 when sold will be allowed access to Riviera through one resale only. If that contract is sold again it won’t. So they sort of grandfathered in resale too.
Wow, that completely contradicts what they have on their website. I wonder if that is a mistake in the document? Or just purposely contradictory?
 
Wow, that completely contradicts what they have on their website. I wonder if that is a mistake in the document? Or just purposely contradictory?
Actually I reread what was on the website. It does say contracts purchased prior to 1/19/19 are exempt. It doesn’t clearly state what they are exempt from. So I think it was ambiguous to some extent on purpose.

But I’m trying to contact DVC to see what this really means. Hopefully I get an answer.
 
Sorry, I do not understand. Are you saying Harry Potter Universal is like comic con?

No, I saying that the era of children driving amusement park experiences is over... yes, children are a huge part of the equation, but I think adults are more so. Therefore, adults who love Marvel and SW and all things that happen at Comic Con are going to be a huge driver for the new hotel that is essentially for Epoc and HS. BTW I know I misspell a bunch.. I am dyslexia and it takes me forever to correct sentences.. I just give up and let whatever I wrote stand.. I apologize for the confusion at times
 
Actually I reread what was on the website. It does say contracts purchased prior to 1/19/19 are exempt. It doesn’t clearly state what they are exempt from. So I think it was ambiguous to some extent on purpose.

But I’m trying to contact DVC to see what this really means. Hopefully I get an answer.

Interesting catch that I didn’t think about.
 
no person of sound economic mind should ever buy BC or BWV at the current resale prices (with ~23 years left, shouldn't their price-per-point be about HALF of the newest resorts?). But they do buy them.

My children are 4 and 6. Last year we decided to add on. At first we considered BCV, but decided against it due to the expiration date. A week later, when their grandparents were in town, my children were talking to them about how much fun they had at BCV earlier that year (we got lucky at 7 months after a mo th of stalking the RAT). We go to Disney several times a year, have stayed at several DVC resorts, and this was far and away their favorite trip due to the resort. It was then that I realized that I was being foolish to consider compromising an entire childhood of family vacations because I cared about what would happen in 2042. Buy where you want to stay, and it’s money well spent.

We spend a lot of time at the resort when we go to Disney. Because we go so often, we don’t feel pressured to do a lot at the parks. For us, our hotel is more than just a place to sleep. We use the pool, community center, restaurants, etc. quite a bit. We like to relax at Disney, which I realize is not the norm, but it works for us. BCV is a big part of that. I also own at the Poly for the same reason (love spending time there).
 
My children are 4 and 6. Last year we decided to add on. At first we considered BCV, but decided against it due to the expiration date. A week later, when their grandparents were in town, my children were talking to them about how much fun they had at BCV earlier that year (we got lucky at 7 months after a mo th of stalking the RAT). We go to Disney several times a year, have stayed at several DVC resorts, and this was far and away their favorite trip due to the resort. It was then that I realized that I was being foolish to consider compromising an entire childhood of family vacations because I cared about what would happen in 2042. Buy where you want to stay, and it’s money well spent.

We spend a lot of time at the resort when we go to Disney. Because we go so often, we don’t feel pressured to do a lot at the parks. For us, our hotel is more than just a place to sleep. We use the pool, community center, restaurants, etc. quite a bit. We like to relax at Disney, which I realize is not the norm, but it works for us. BCV is a big part of that. I also own at the Poly for the same reason (love spending time there).

Yes! This is kind of my point. We don't act like econs when it comes to these purchases, so that trying to predict future prices based upon normal supply and demand, or even based upon the objective attractiveness of a contract (e.g. can stay at any of 14 older resorts versus 1 newer one), is going to be tough. It's just as easy to imagine a family falling in love with the gondolas, the "European" theme, something about the rooftop bar/restaurant, etc, and buying on those criteria alone.

I think the closest prediction anybody can give would be something like "everything will keep increasing in price for so long as people have hearts and emotions". And of course money.
 
i think that there would lol be a significant increase in the number of resale Riviera owners that will not be able to use their points each year. . . . . This might be enough to make a lot of people not want resale, which is what Disney wants. I expect that all new resorts will follow this model , including the rebranding of the L14 when they eventually expire.

If I've learned anything it's that, with Disney, the prices people are willing to pay are always surprising (even when I'm sure that, this time, I won't be surprised).

I agree. Never said they would get it right. They have been trying to drive people to buy direct instead of resale for a few years now and the first two attempts didn’t seemed to get the results they wanted. So now they are really going to take most of the value (in their opinion) out of resale so people will buy direct.

(Yeah, but it won't REALLY take most of the value out of resales. It will only make resales more competitive.)

You know why I think they can't do it? Because it is still getting a room onsite for less than an onsite cash room reservation. DVC isn't competing like many other timeshares do - with lots of other lodging options and other timeshare nor do they have a country or worldwide system to trade around in. They are competing with Disney hotels for onsite rooms. If anything, the resale price would adjust down a bit with this particular change and then it will be just as appealing as ever to those who want to stay there and are willing to do what they need to get that appealing onsite room. IMO, Disney is fighting a battle against what they are and that's going to be tough to win with the tactics they are taking.

DVC is different from EVERY other Timeshare, because it has the best locations in the world! And that simply will not change.

I know I'm starting to sound like a broken record, but I can't help it. Economics are Economics, no matter how much people (Disney) wishes it was otherwise. The trouble for Disney is this: DVC Contracts, including Resale DVC Contracts, have significant value, independent of what Disney does to restrict them. That value is based on the fact that they can be used to stay in a Disney Resort at a cut rate price. THAT 'Savings' IS THE BEST VALUE IN RESALE CONTRACTS AND IT CAN NEVER BE TAKEN AWAY. Disney MUST make DVC Points economically valuable, or no one would buy into DVC in the first place. And just because Disney then restricts them and throws up roadblocks, does not mean that the DVC points still do not retain value. If a DVC contract will allow you to stay in Riviera, even if it is ONLY Riviera, for half price, then people are still going to want it. Sure, there will always be an emotional component to this, but in the end, things will average out.

So, once again, even if Disney is able to drive Riviera Resales contracts to 'very low prices,' that just means that more people, who are perfectly happy to stay in Riviera, (OR trade points with someone to stay somewhere else, OR rent out their points and use the money to stay somewhere else,) WILL come hunting for a bargain. And the Resales contracts that produce that bargain will retain value. So, then Disney will be in the situation of trying to sell Riviera (or Rehab, or whatever is then available) for a high price, while at the same time people can go to Resales, and buy access to the same thing, for a much lower price. And this will, once again, suck the life out of Direct Sales. Sure, there will always be a few people who will buy Direct, either through ignorance, or because they want the privileges of dealing Directly with Disney. But this Direct market will be an ever shrinking market as more and more 'normal, typical' people switch over to the Resale market, because of the great prices. There are many people who can't really afford to pay the Full Direct Price, but who can afford to buy at resales.

When you look at this, you realize that if Disney stays on this course, they are in a no-win situation. Anything they do to take something away from Resales will only lower the price enough to make Resales more desirable. And both the fact that Resale prices are low (which makes HIGH Direct prices look bad) AND the fact that resales will still be quite valuable, will keep Disney in a Catch-22. The ONLY way Disney can come out ahead on this is to REMOVE Restrictions and try to RAISE the Resale Price, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME, THEY ADD EXTRA, NEW PERKS TO THE DIRECT CONTRACTS, thus making them even more valuable in comparison to the Resales contracts.

So Disney needs to do what is best for them, which also happens to be what is best for everyone else: Remove restrictions from DVC Resales, support a high Resales price, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME THEY ADD NEW VALUE to Direct points, which new value is independent of anything that has been done with resales, and which is DIFFERENT from any perks that they have given before. Not only will that raise the value of Direct DVC sales, but it will increase the confidence in their customers that Disney WILL take care of them. And thus make them trust Disney more, which will make them buy more. I know that this course will cost Disney a bit. But it can be done at a relatively low cost. Perks such as earlier booking for Direct, more FastPasses, Free Park Hopper upgrades (a lot of them will get annual passes anyway so this won't matter a bit), and similar things. That is the proper course for Disney.

Okay, I am going to stop the lecture, because Disney is not listening anyway.
 
(Yeah, but it won't REALLY take most of the value out of resales. It will only make resales more competitive.)



DVC is different from EVERY other Timeshare, because it has the best locations in the world! And that simply will not change.

I know I'm starting to sound like a broken record, but I can't help it. Economics are Economics, no matter how much people (Disney) wishes it was otherwise. The trouble for Disney is this: DVC Contracts, including Resale DVC Contracts, have significant value, independent of what Disney does to restrict them. That value is based on the fact that they can be used to stay in a Disney Resort at a cut rate price. THAT 'Savings' IS THE BEST VALUE IN RESALE CONTRACTS AND IT CAN NEVER BE TAKEN AWAY. Disney MUST make DVC Points economically valuable, or no one would buy into DVC in the first place. And just because Disney then restricts them and throws up roadblocks, does not mean that the DVC points still do not retain value. If a DVC contract will allow you to stay in Riviera, even if it is ONLY Riviera, for half price, then people are still going to want it. Sure, there will always be an emotional component to this, but in the end, things will average out.

So, once again, even if Disney is able to drive Riviera Resales contracts to 'very low prices,' that just means that more people, who are perfectly happy to stay in Riviera, (OR trade points with someone to stay somewhere else, OR rent out their points and use the money to stay somewhere else,) WILL come hunting for a bargain. And the Resales contracts that produce that bargain will retain value. So, then Disney will be in the situation of trying to sell Riviera (or Rehab, or whatever is then available) for a high price, while at the same time people can go to Resales, and buy access to the same thing, for a much lower price. And this will, once again, suck the life out of Direct Sales. Sure, there will always be a few people who will buy Direct, either through ignorance, or because they want the privileges of dealing Directly with Disney. But this Direct market will be an ever shrinking market as more and more 'normal, typical' people switch over to the Resale market, because of the great prices. There are many people who can't really afford to pay the Full Direct Price, but who can afford to buy at resales.

When you look at this, you realize that if Disney stays on this course, they are in a no-win situation. Anything they do to take something away from Resales will only lower the price enough to make Resales more desirable. And both the fact that Resale prices are low (which makes HIGH Direct prices look bad) AND the fact that resales will still be quite valuable, will keep Disney in a Catch-22. The ONLY way Disney can come out ahead on this is to REMOVE Restrictions and try to RAISE the Resale Price, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME, THEY ADD EXTRA, NEW PERKS TO THE DIRECT CONTRACTS, thus making them even more valuable in comparison to the Resales contracts.

So Disney needs to do what is best for them, which also happens to be what is best for everyone else: Remove restrictions from DVC Resales, support a high Resales price, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME THEY ADD NEW VALUE to Direct points, which new value is independent of anything that has been done with resales, and which is DIFFERENT from any perks that they have given before. Not only will that raise the value of Direct DVC sales, but it will increase the confidence in their customers that Disney WILL take care of them. And thus make them trust Disney more, which will make them buy more. I know that this course will cost Disney a bit. But it can be done at a relatively low cost. Perks such as earlier booking for Direct, more FastPasses, Free Park Hopper upgrades (a lot of them will get annual passes anyway so this won't matter a bit), and similar things. That is the proper course for Disney.

Okay, I am going to stop the lecture, because Disney is not listening anyway.

I agree with you here. DVC is all about the location and there is no competition. There are going to be people willing to buy resale no matter what, but especially if the price gets low enough.

Disney should really be looking at a carrot approach for direct buyers....give them more free FP+, earlier ADR, earlier FP+ bookings.

Realistically the only thing that they could do as a stick to stop people buying would be to make such that resale owners have a HARD time even booking at their home resort.
 
(Yeah, but it won't REALLY take most of the value out of resales. It will only make resales more competitive.)



DVC is different from EVERY other Timeshare, because it has the best locations in the world! And that simply will not change.

I know I'm starting to sound like a broken record, but I can't help it. Economics are Economics, no matter how much people (Disney) wishes it was otherwise. The trouble for Disney is this: DVC Contracts, including Resale DVC Contracts, have significant value, independent of what Disney does to restrict them. That value is based on the fact that they can be used to stay in a Disney Resort at a cut rate price. THAT 'Savings' IS THE BEST VALUE IN RESALE CONTRACTS AND IT CAN NEVER BE TAKEN AWAY. Disney MUST make DVC Points economically valuable, or no one would buy into DVC in the first place. And just because Disney then restricts them and throws up roadblocks, does not mean that the DVC points still do not retain value. If a DVC contract will allow you to stay in Riviera, even if it is ONLY Riviera, for half price, then people are still going to want it. Sure, there will always be an emotional component to this, but in the end, things will average out.

So, once again, even if Disney is able to drive Riviera Resales contracts to 'very low prices,' that just means that more people, who are perfectly happy to stay in Riviera, (OR trade points with someone to stay somewhere else, OR rent out their points and use the money to stay somewhere else,) WILL come hunting for a bargain. And the Resales contracts that produce that bargain will retain value. So, then Disney will be in the situation of trying to sell Riviera (or Rehab, or whatever is then available) for a high price, while at the same time people can go to Resales, and buy access to the same thing, for a much lower price. And this will, once again, suck the life out of Direct Sales. Sure, there will always be a few people who will buy Direct, either through ignorance, or because they want the privileges of dealing Directly with Disney. But this Direct market will be an ever shrinking market as more and more 'normal, typical' people switch over to the Resale market, because of the great prices. There are many people who can't really afford to pay the Full Direct Price, but who can afford to buy at resales.

When you look at this, you realize that if Disney stays on this course, they are in a no-win situation. Anything they do to take something away from Resales will only lower the price enough to make Resales more desirable. And both the fact that Resale prices are low (which makes HIGH Direct prices look bad) AND the fact that resales will still be quite valuable, will keep Disney in a Catch-22. The ONLY way Disney can come out ahead on this is to REMOVE Restrictions and try to RAISE the Resale Price, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME, THEY ADD EXTRA, NEW PERKS TO THE DIRECT CONTRACTS, thus making them even more valuable in comparison to the Resales contracts.

So Disney needs to do what is best for them, which also happens to be what is best for everyone else: Remove restrictions from DVC Resales, support a high Resales price, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME THEY ADD NEW VALUE to Direct points, which new value is independent of anything that has been done with resales, and which is DIFFERENT from any perks that they have given before. Not only will that raise the value of Direct DVC sales, but it will increase the confidence in their customers that Disney WILL take care of them. And thus make them trust Disney more, which will make them buy more. I know that this course will cost Disney a bit. But it can be done at a relatively low cost. Perks such as earlier booking for Direct, more FastPasses, Free Park Hopper upgrades (a lot of them will get annual passes anyway so this won't matter a bit), and similar things. That is the proper course for Disney.

Okay, I am going to stop the lecture, because Disney is not listening anyway.
I feel DVD is trying to take most of the value out of resale contracts to drive the price low enough that they can ROFR most if not all of the contracts to repackage them as direct. There is going to be times the price point will exceed this and some will pass but not at the same level as previous resorts. Just look at what prices they ROFR some contracts for now compared to what they repackage and sell those points for direct. If the new restrictions drive the resale value of the newer resorts 20% lower than what resale’s have been historically DVD in my opinion will ROFR most if not all. And for the ones they let go in resale. You are gonna have a group of very sore people who if they’d don’t secure a room more then 7 months out will have no recourse other than to bank and wait till next year. And if it takes longer for DVD to sell they will just rent for cash. In the end it is just DVD building another hotel that they feel they need.
 
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