Wine & Dine 1/2 marathon weekend 2021

[Sara W]

Man, if only I had that POT a couple of months earlier! ugh. I guess there's always the next race (or race after the next race, I also missed the marathon weekend POT cutoff)

 

[jenljeffers1989]

Here are the bib numbers data compiled into one post. I will update if anyone tagged provides more information about their estimated pace from registration.

5k
@rundisfan - 400XX - estimated pace - under 8:00mm
@cel_disney - 45xxx - What was your estimated pace?
@cel_disney DD - 499xx - What was your estimated pace?

10k
@1lilspark - 336xx - Estimated 12:01-14:00 mm

HM
@Wishuponastar0412 DH - 2xx - POT under 2 hrs
@btk2333 - 4xx - POT under 2 hrs
@SaraW - 9xx - Estimated 2:00-2:15
@FanforDisney - 10xx - What was your estimated pace?
@Kerry1957 - 10xx - Estimated 2:00-2:15
@jhk1206 DH - 15XX - Estimated 2:00-2:15
@HangWithMerida - 25xx - Estimated 2:00-2:15
@Wishuponastar0412 - 26XX - Estimated 2:16-2:30
@Figment1990 - 39xx - No POT, what was estimated pace?
@jimrpa - 55xx - Estimated 3:01-3:15

Challenge
@rundisfan DH - 200XX POT - 1:30 HM POT
@huskies90 - 200xx - 1:35 HM POT
@rundisfan - 200XX - 1:36 HM POT
@zfletch74 - 20XXX - 3:44 M POT
@Dopey 2020 - 202XX - 1:49 HM POT
@camaker - 202xx - 3:57 M POT
@pixarmom - 203XX - 1:57 HM POT
@erbam06 - 204XX - 53:31 10k POT
@Keith Tyger - 20xxx - What was your estimated pace, and can you give one more digit?
@FanforDisney - 209xx - Estimated 2:01-2:15
@lukemorenus - 212xx - Estimated 2:01-2:15
@jhk1206 - 21XXX - Estimated 2:01-2:15
@EveV - 225XX - Estimated 2:01-2:15
@broadsheet - 226xx - Estimated 2:16-2:30
@huskies90 DW - 229xx - No POT, what was estimated pace?
@Sleepy425 - 24xxx - No POT, what was estimated pace?
@PrincessV - unknown

My bib number is 28xx and my estimated time was 2:15.

 

[Figment1990]

Here are the bib numbers data compiled into one post. I will update if anyone tagged provides more information about their estimated pace from registration.

5k
@rundisfan - 400XX - estimated pace - under 8:00mm
@cel_disney - 45xxx - What was your estimated pace?
@cel_disney DD - 499xx - What was your estimated pace?

10k
@1lilspark - 336xx - Estimated 12:01-14:00 mm

HM
@Wishuponastar0412 DH - 2xx - POT under 2 hrs
@btk2333 - 4xx - POT under 2 hrs
@SaraW - 9xx - Estimated 2:00-2:15
@FanforDisney - 10xx - What was your estimated pace?
@Kerry1957 - 10xx - Estimated 2:00-2:15
@jhk1206 DH - 15XX - Estimated 2:00-2:15
@HangWithMerida - 25xx - Estimated 2:00-2:15
@Wishuponastar0412 - 26XX - Estimated 2:16-2:30
@jenljeffers1989 - 28xx - Estimated 2:16-2:30
@Figment1990 - 39xx - No POT, what was estimated pace?
@jimrpa - 55xx - Estimated 3:01-3:15

Challenge
@rundisfan DH - 200XX POT - 1:30 HM POT
@huskies90 - 200xx - 1:35 HM POT
@rundisfan - 200XX - 1:36 HM POT
@zfletch74 - 20XXX - 3:44 M POT
@Dopey 2020 - 202XX - 1:49 HM POT
@camaker - 202xx - 3:57 M POT
@pixarmom - 203XX - 1:57 HM POT
@erbam06 - 204XX - 53:31 10k POT
@Keith Tyger - 20xxx - What was your estimated pace, and can you give one more digit?
@FanforDisney - 209xx - Estimated 2:01-2:15
@lukemorenus - 212xx - Estimated 2:01-2:15
@jhk1206 - 21XXX - Estimated 2:01-2:15
@EveV - 225XX - Estimated 2:01-2:15
@broadsheet - 226xx - Estimated 2:16-2:30
@huskies90 DW - 229xx - No POT, what was estimated pace?
@Sleepy425 - 24xxx - No POT, what was estimated pace?
@PrincessV - unknown

My estimated time was 2:45.
Edited to add - I can’t remember if the estimate we provided was a range or not. If so I would have put 2:30-2:45 bc my previous POT was a half at 2:41.

thank u for putting this together!

 

[rafiki]

@DopeyBadger, my wife and I registered for the 10K estimating 10-12 mm and we have bib #'s 316xx and 326xx.

 

[cel_disney]

Here are the bib numbers data compiled into one post. I will update if anyone tagged provides more information about their estimated pace from registration.

5k
@rundisfan - 400XX - estimated pace - under 8:00mm
@cel_disney - 45xxx - What was your estimated pace?
@cel_disney DD - 499xx - What was your estimated pace?

I think similar to years past that the 5k has an element of “sign up date” in the Bib Numbers ..

my estimated time was 10-12 min pace.

my daughter with the higher number is 8-10 min pace.

thanks for putting this list together!

 

[DopeyBadger]

I think similar to years past that the 5k has an element of “sign up date” in the Bib Numbers ..

my estimated time was 10-12 min pace.

my daughter with the higher number is 8-10 min pace.

thanks for putting this list together!

Looks like she signed up on 10/12/21 based on your post history. POT closed on 8/17 per runDisney. So I suspect sometime between 8/17 and 10/12 they had already begun assigning bibs to runners based on estimated times. So when your DD signed up late in the process, she was assigned the next available bib rather than an estimate appropriate number. So I agree that her number is higher simply because she signed up so late and not a reflection of bib number = ranked order of estimates/POT.

 

[Kerry1957]

Typically the 2:00-2:15 group makes up about 7.9% of the field when POT was required. So 31% would be quite an uptick. That's actually pretty close to what I estimated would be the number of people in the field inputting a 2:01-2:15 based on the MW numbers back in July (link). I estimated about 32% of the field.

The big uptick in the percent of runners estimating 2:00-2:15 does not surprise me. My best recent HM was 2:20, and I put myself in the 2:00-2:15 group. Will I PR on Sunday? No, I'm not even going to try. Like thousands of other runners I wanted to be in the "best" group I could. For some, it's to give a greater cushion before being swept, for others it's having shorter lines at photo stops. For me, it's avoiding all of the weaving through the masses (of my fellow runners who under-estimated their time more than I did) during the first few miles.

Of course, as has been discussed many times, it's a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy. If almost everyone pads their time, then no one really gains much and the few honest people lose out.

 

[cel_disney]

Looks like she signed up on 10/12/21 based on your post history. POT closed on 8/17 per runDisney. So I suspect sometime between 8/17 and 10/12 they had already begun assigning bibs to runners based on estimated times. So when your DD signed up late in the process, she was assigned the next available bib rather than an estimate appropriate number. So I agree that her number is higher simply because she signed up so late and not a reflection of bib number = ranked order of estimates/POT.

yes - I also signed up after the POT date (around Labor Day) but possibly before they started assignments. In the past - we have always signed up super early with the DVC early sign up window and had amazing placements that I’m sure did NOT consider our times! Ha!

given how much faster she is than me - the tentative plan is for me to start in my spot and her in hers and we will meet up on the course somewhere….when I signed up I was definitely running a lot more than I am now and I suspect there will be much more walking during my run than originally planned!

 

[Keith Tyger]

Here are the bib numbers data compiled into one post. I will update if anyone tagged provides more information about their estimated pace from registration.

5k
@rundisfan - 400XX - Estimated under 8:00mm
@cel_disney - 45xxx - Estimated 10:00-12:00mm
@cel_disney DD - 499xx - Estimated 8:00-10:00mm

10k
@rafiki - 316xx - Estimated 10:01-12:00
@rafiki DW - 326xx - Estimated 10:01-12:00
@1lilspark - 336xx - Estimated 12:01-14:00 mm

HM
@Wishuponastar0412 DH - 2xx - POT under 2 hrs
@btk2333 - 4xx - POT under 2 hrs
@SaraW - 9xx - Estimated 2:00-2:15
@FanforDisney - 10xx - What was your estimated pace?
@Kerry1957 - 10xx - Estimated 2:00-2:15
@jhk1206 DH - 15XX - Estimated 2:00-2:15
@HangWithMerida - 25xx - Estimated 2:00-2:15
@Wishuponastar0412 - 26XX - Estimated 2:16-2:30
@jenljeffers1989 - 28xx - Estimated 2:16-2:30
@Figment1990 - 39xx - Estimated 2:45-3:00
@jimrpa - 55xx - Estimated 3:01-3:15

Challenge
@rundisfan DH - 200XX POT - 1:30 HM POT
@huskies90 - 200xx - 1:35 HM POT
@rundisfan - 200XX - 1:36 HM POT
@zfletch74 - 20XXX - 3:44 M POT
@Dopey 2020 - 202XX - 1:49 HM POT
@camaker - 202xx - 3:57 M POT
@pixarmom - 203XX - 1:57 HM POT
@erbam06 - 204XX - 53:31 10k POT
@Keith Tyger - 20xxx - What was your estimated pace, and can you give one more digit?
@FanforDisney - 209xx - Estimated 2:01-2:15
@lukemorenus - 212xx - Estimated 2:01-2:15
@jhk1206 - 21XXX - Estimated 2:01-2:15
@EveV - 225XX - Estimated 2:01-2:15
@broadsheet - 226xx - Estimated 2:16-2:30
@huskies90 DW - 229xx - No POT, what was estimated pace?
@Sleepy425 - 24xxx - No POT, what was estimated pace?
@PrincessV - unknown

206xx for both my wife and self. No POT submitted and a 2:05 estimate.

 

[striker1064]

@DopeyBadger

Just throwing in my bib number as well:

HM 3xx, POT 1:58.

 

[RangerPooh]

Challenge, no POT submitted. Anticipated 2:30-2:45 half, 23,xxx

 

[DopeyBadger]

given how much faster she is than me - the tentative plan is for me to start in my spot and her in hers and we will meet up on the course somewhere….when I signed up I was definitely running a lot more than I am now and I suspect there will be much more walking during my run than originally planned!

I anticipate that you will either be in the same starting group or she will be ahead of you. Despite the higher bib number, I think your DD will still be placed based on her estimated pace. So she may have to slow down for you to catch up if that's the case. Although I suspect there will only be three starting groups for the 5k.

1 - Sub-8
2 - 8-10, 10-12
3 - 12-14, 14-16

That's how it played out in the recent 5ks when they moved to three corrals. It'll be interesting to see either way.

 

[lukemorenus]

I anticipate that you will either be in the same starting group or she will be ahead of you. Despite the higher bib number, I think your DD will still be placed based on her estimated pace. So she may have to slow down for you to catch up if that's the case. Although I suspect there will only be three starting groups for the 5k.

1 - Sub-8
2 - 8-10, 10-12
3 - 12-14, 14-16

That's how it played out in the recent 5ks when they moved to three corrals. It'll be interesting to see either way.

Best guess on the number of starting groups for the 10k and half?

 

[DopeyBadger]

Best guess on the number of starting groups for the 10k and half?

My 5k prediction is based on this image in combination with their recent move to three corrals for the 5ks:



In the recent past, there were six starting groups (corrals) for the 10k and eight for the HM. Although there used to be more choices for paces for the 10k registration (sub9, 9-10, 10-11, 11-12, 12-14, and 14-16). The choices this year were sub8, 8-10, 10-12, 12-14, and 14-16. So I don't see six corral options anymore since there are now only five possible choices. The starting group image does not call out a specific number which maybe (?) is an indication of a different number for the 10k/HM than each other (I could easily be reading into it too much):



The Princess 2022 page specifically references "one of four starting groups" on the 5k and 10k page, and used to on the HM pages as well but that is now gone.



The text examples in the event guide reference s1-s4 without the use of etc.



So my best guess is that they're planning on 3-4 starting groups for the 10k. But I haven't see anything definitive at this point.

I suspect that there will be 4 starting groups for the HM as well, but the removal of the language from the Princess HM gives me reason to believe they aren't moving in that direction. My best guess for the HM is something like:

1- POT/club runDisney (8-10% of field)
2- Estimated 2:00-2:15 (31% of field)
3- Estimated 2:15-2:30
4- Estimated 2:30-2:45
5- Estimated 2:45-3:00
6- Estimated 3:00-3:15
7- Estimated 3:15-3:30

Or

1- POT/club runDisney (8-10% of field)
2- Estimated 2:00-2:15 (31% of field)
3- Estimated 2:15-2:30, 2:30-2:45, 2:45-3:00 (~30% of field)
4- Estimated 3:00-3:15, 3:15-3:30 (~30% of field)

Either way, I feel pretty comfortable with the 5k being three (maybe four) starting groups/corrals based on past history. The 10k and HM I'm far less confident in making a solid prediction. That's why I'm watching the W&D data eagerly to see if we can glean anything for MW and Princess.

 

[camaker]

My 5k prediction is based on this image in combination with their recent move to three corrals for the 5ks:

View attachment 618890

In the recent past, there were six starting groups (corrals) for the 10k and eight for the HM. Although there used to be more choices for paces for the 10k registration (sub9, 9-10, 10-11, 11-12, 12-14, and 14-16). The choices this year were sub8, 8-10, 10-12, 12-14, and 14-16. So I don't see six corral options anymore since there are now only five possible choices. The starting group image does not call out a specific number which maybe (?) is an indication of a different number for the 10k/HM than each other (I could easily be reading into it too much):

View attachment 618891

The Princess 2022 page specifically references "one of four starting groups" on the 5k and 10k page, and used to on the HM pages as well but that is now gone.

View attachment 618892

The text examples in the event guide reference s1-s4 without the use of etc.

View attachment 618894

So my best guess is that they're planning on 3-4 starting groups for the 10k. But I haven't see anything definitive at this point.

I suspect that there will be 4 starting groups for the HM as well, but the removal of the language from the Princess HM gives me reason to believe they aren't moving in that direction. My best guess for the HM is something like:

1- POT/club runDisney (8-10% of field)
2- Estimated 2:00-2:15 (31% of field)
3- Estimated 2:15-2:30
4- Estimated 2:30-2:45
5- Estimated 2:45-3:00
6- Estimated 3:00-3:15
7- Estimated 3:15-3:30

Or

1- POT/club runDisney (8-10% of field)
2- Estimated 2:00-2:15 (31% of field)
3- Estimated 2:15-2:30, 2:30-2:45, 2:45-3:00 (~30% of field)
4- Estimated 3:00-3:15, 3:15-3:30 (~30% of field)

Either way, I feel pretty comfortable with the 5k being three (maybe four) starting groups/corrals based on past history. The 10k and HM I'm far less confident in making a solid prediction. That's why I'm watching the W&D data eagerly to see if we can glean anything for MW and Princess.

Great analysis! The only thing I’d suggest is that the language for Club RunDisney has consistently implied that the improved corral placement would be behind the PoT corral(s), but in front of the non-PoT corrals. I’d actually expect there to be a very small Club RunDisney start group right behind the sole PoT start group. I don’t think RunDisney is going to want club members moving up to start at the front of the PoT start group…

 

[Dopey 2020]

My 5k prediction is based on this image in combination with their recent move to three corrals for the 5ks:

View attachment 618890

In the recent past, there were six starting groups (corrals) for the 10k and eight for the HM. Although there used to be more choices for paces for the 10k registration (sub9, 9-10, 10-11, 11-12, 12-14, and 14-16). The choices this year were sub8, 8-10, 10-12, 12-14, and 14-16. So I don't see six corral options anymore since there are now only five possible choices. The starting group image does not call out a specific number which maybe (?) is an indication of a different number for the 10k/HM than each other (I could easily be reading into it too much):

View attachment 618891

The Princess 2022 page specifically references "one of four starting groups" on the 5k and 10k page, and used to on the HM pages as well but that is now gone.

View attachment 618892

The text examples in the event guide reference s1-s4 without the use of etc.

View attachment 618894

So my best guess is that they're planning on 3-4 starting groups for the 10k. But I haven't see anything definitive at this point.

I suspect that there will be 4 starting groups for the HM as well, but the removal of the language from the Princess HM gives me reason to believe they aren't moving in that direction. My best guess for the HM is something like:

1- POT/club runDisney (8-10% of field)
2- Estimated 2:00-2:15 (31% of field)
3- Estimated 2:15-2:30
4- Estimated 2:30-2:45
5- Estimated 2:45-3:00
6- Estimated 3:00-3:15
7- Estimated 3:15-3:30

Or

1- POT/club runDisney (8-10% of field)
2- Estimated 2:00-2:15 (31% of field)
3- Estimated 2:15-2:30, 2:30-2:45, 2:45-3:00 (~30% of field)
4- Estimated 3:00-3:15, 3:15-3:30 (~30% of field)

Either way, I feel pretty comfortable with the 5k being three (maybe four) starting groups/corrals based on past history. The 10k and HM I'm far less confident in making a solid prediction. That's why I'm watching the W&D data eagerly to see if we can glean anything for MW and Princess.

I‘m thinking the first option simply because they historically like smaller groups but who knows. I do think POT and club rD will be seperated. The club faqs state that if you have a pot you will stay in the coral you earned as opposed to the upgraded club coral.

ETA: ha, looks like @camaker beat me to it

 

[PrincessV]

I'm fully expecting to see 4 giant start groups for the 10K and half. But then IDK why they bothered to use any language about using start groups "to follow health and safety guidelines." Stuffing thousands of people into bigger groups isn't safer than spreading them out.

Honestly, I'm mentally prepared for a big ol' mess, with few knowing what the heck is going on, lol! I'll bring an extra snack in case the starts are delayed, find a spot that's out of the way to hang back, and just enjoy the show. #justhappytobehere is my race weekend theme.

 

[lukemorenus]

I'm fully expecting to see 4 giant start groups for the 10K and half. But then IDK why they bothered to use any language about using start groups "to follow health and safety guidelines." Stuffing thousands of people into bigger groups isn't safer than spreading them out.

Honestly, I'm mentally prepared for a big ol' mess, with few knowing what the heck is going on, lol! I'll bring an extra snack in case the starts are delayed, find a spot that's out of the way to hang back, and just enjoy the show. #justhappytobehere is my race weekend theme.

Same... I thought the move to Starting Groups was an attempt to stagger arrival times, but that doesn't seem to be the case at all

 

[WhereInFlorida]

#justhappytobehere is my race weekend theme.

It has been too long and excited about being back to racing. Usually I do local HM around this time of year but the W&D worked out well with the marathon training plan and I have been more than excited and looking forward to this.

 

[DopeyBadger]

Great analysis! The only thing I’d suggest is that the language for Club RunDisney has consistently implied that the improved corral placement would be behind the PoT corral(s), but in front of the non-PoT corrals. I’d actually expect there to be a very small Club RunDisney start group right behind the sole PoT start group. I don’t think RunDisney is going to want club members moving up to start at the front of the PoT start group…

Yea, that's what I thought originally too (went back and forth on it before posting). I'm not married to the idea of POT/Club runDisney being combined and could easily see them one after the other. My only hesitation is that with 4 groups, that means 10% in POT, then ?% (presumably small) in club runDisney, and then 80-90% in the last two groups. We shall see, but I think you're probably right based on the language.

Same... I thought the move to Starting Groups was an attempt to stagger arrival times, but that doesn't seem to be the case at all

I think the move to "starting groups" from "corrals" was something of a semantics game. So they could say this is a "new" system and then move to having only four groups instead of eight with some other potential changes coming. The language on the Princess page does allude to some sort of timed arrival system coming. It'll be interesting to see how that is handled.