Wine & Dine 1/2 marathon weekend 2021

[broadsheet]

Challenge:
Bib 226xx
No POT estimated finish 2:15

 

[camaker]

Here are the bib numbers data compiled into one post. I will update if anyone tagged provides more information about their estimated pace from registration.

5k
@cel_disney - 45xxx - What was your estimated pace?
@cel_disney DD - 499xx - What was your estimated pace?

10k
@1lilspark - 33xxx - What was your estimated pace, and can you give one more digit?

HM
@Wishuponastar0412 DH - 2xx - POT under 2 hrs
@btk2333 - 4xx - POT under 2 hrs
@SaraW - 9xx - Estimated 2:00
@FanforDisney - 10xx - What was your estimated pace?
@Kerry1957 - 10xx - What was your estimated pace?
@Figment1990 - 39xx - No POT, what was estimated pace?
@jimrpa - 55xx - What was your estimated pace?

Challenge
@huskies90 - 200xx - 1:35 HM POT
@camaker - 202xx - Had POT of?
@Keith Tyger - 20xxx - What was your estimated pace, and can you give one more digit?
@FanforDisney - 20xxx - What was your estimated pace, and can you give one more digit?
@huskies90 DW - 229xx - No POT, what was estimated pace?
@Sleepy425 - 24xxx - No POT, what was estimated pace?
@PrincessV - unknown
@rundisfan - unknown

I submitted a marathon time of 3:57:30 as PoT, so well under 2:00.

 

[jimrpa]

Here are the bib numbers data compiled into one post. I will update if anyone tagged provides more information about their estimated pace from registration.

5k
@cel_disney - 45xxx - What was your estimated pace?
@cel_disney DD - 499xx - What was your estimated pace?

10k
@1lilspark - 33xxx - What was your estimated pace, and can you give one more digit?

HM
@Wishuponastar0412 DH - 2xx - POT under 2 hrs
@btk2333 - 4xx - POT under 2 hrs
@SaraW - 9xx - Estimated 2:00
@FanforDisney - 10xx - What was your estimated pace?
@Kerry1957 - 10xx - What was your estimated pace?
@Figment1990 - 39xx - No POT, what was estimated pace?
@jimrpa - 55xx - What was your estimated pace?

Challenge
@huskies90 - 200xx - 1:35 HM POT
@camaker - 202xx - Had POT of?
@Keith Tyger - 20xxx - What was your estimated pace, and can you give one more digit?
@FanforDisney - 20xxx - What was your estimated pace, and can you give one more digit?
@huskies90 DW - 229xx - No POT, what was estimated pace?
@Sleepy425 - 24xxx - No POT, what was estimated pace?
@PrincessV - unknown
@rundisfan - unknown

No PoT - 3:01 - 3:15

 

[rundisfan]

5k - 400XX - estimated pace - under 8:00
Challenge - 200XX POT - 1:36

Edit to add: DH Challenge bib - 200XX POT - 1:30

 

[lukemorenus]

Me:
Challenge Bib #212xx
No POT - Estimated 2:01 - 2:15

 

[EveV]

Me:
Challenge Bib #225XX
No POT - Estimated 2:01-2:15

 

[Dopey 2020]

@DopeyBadger
If you are looking for data to add
Challenge bib 202XX
1:49:23 HM POT

 

[Kerry1957]

Here are the bib numbers data compiled into one post. I will update if anyone tagged provides more information about their estimated pace from registration.

5k
@cel_disney - 45xxx - What was your estimated pace?
@cel_disney DD - 499xx - What was your estimated pace?

10k
@1lilspark - 33xxx - What was your estimated pace, and can you give one more digit?

HM
@Wishuponastar0412 DH - 2xx - POT under 2 hrs
@btk2333 - 4xx - POT under 2 hrs
@SaraW - 9xx - Estimated 2:00-2:15
@FanforDisney - 10xx - What was your estimated pace?
@Kerry1957 - 10xx - What was your estimated pace?
@Wishuponastar0412 - 26XX - Estimated 2:16-2:30
@Figment1990 - 39xx - No POT, what was estimated pace?
@jimrpa - 55xx - Estimated 3:01-3:15

Challenge
@huskies90 - 200xx - 1:35 HM POT
@camaker - 202xx - 3:57 M POT
@Keith Tyger - 20xxx - What was your estimated pace, and can you give one more digit?
@FanforDisney - 20xxx - What was your estimated pace, and can you give one more digit?
@broadsheet - 226xx - Estimated 2:16-2:30
@huskies90 DW - 229xx - No POT, what was estimated pace?
@Sleepy425 - 24xxx - No POT, what was estimated pace?
@PrincessV - unknown
@rundisfan - unknown

I estimated 2:00 - 2:15 and thus did not submit a PoT

 

[HangWithMerida]

I am HM only bib #25xx
Estimated 2:00-2:15

Weather edit: The weather is shifting in a very pleasant direction! Sat night low of 53 and sunday high of 74! YAY!!!

 

[1lilspark]

Here are the bib numbers data compiled into one post. I will update if anyone tagged provides more information about their estimated pace from registration.

5k
@rundisfan - 400XX - estimated pace - under 8:00
@cel_disney - 45xxx - What was your estimated pace?
@cel_disney DD - 499xx - What was your estimated pace?

10k
@1lilspark - 33xxx - What was your estimated pace, and can you give one more digit?

HM
@Wishuponastar0412 DH - 2xx - POT under 2 hrs
@btk2333 - 4xx - POT under 2 hrs
@SaraW - 9xx - Estimated 2:00-2:15
@FanforDisney - 10xx - What was your estimated pace?
@Kerry1957 - 10xx - Estimated 2:00-2:15
@HangWithMerida - 25xx - Estimated 2:00-2:15
@Wishuponastar0412 - 26XX - Estimated 2:16-2:30
@Figment1990 - 39xx - No POT, what was estimated pace?
@jimrpa - 55xx - Estimated 3:01-3:15

Challenge
@rundisfan DH - 200XX POT - 1:30 HM POT
@huskies90 - 200xx - 1:35 HM POT
@rundisfan - 200XX - 1:36 HM POT
@Dopey 2020 - 202XX - 1:49 HM POT
@camaker - 202xx - 3:57 M POT
@Keith Tyger - 20xxx - What was your estimated pace, and can you give one more digit?
@FanforDisney - 20xxx - What was your estimated pace, and can you give one more digit?
@lukemorenus - 212xx - Estimated 2:01-2:15
@EveV - 225XX - Estimated 2:01-2:15
@broadsheet - 226xx - Estimated 2:16-2:30
@huskies90 DW - 229xx - No POT, what was estimated pace?
@Sleepy425 - 24xxx - No POT, what was estimated pace?
@PrincessV - unknown

336xx
Estimated pace 1201-1400 m/m

 

[jhk1206]

Two more for the list

Mine is 21XXX for the challenge
Estimated Finish 2:00 - 2:15

Hubby is 15XX for the half
Estimated Finish 2:00 - 2:15

 

[zfletch74]

Challenge bib: 201XX - POT Marathon 3:44

 

[DopeyBadger]

Any Club runDisney Platinum members? They get an upgraded corral placement, and I'm curious how their bib numbers look compared to the data collected thus far.

 

[lukemorenus]

Runner Tracking appears to be up:

https://track.rtrt.me/e/WDW-WD-2021#

 

[DopeyBadger]

Bib #6 is a 2:44 marathoner running in the HM at Wine and Dine. As with the other evidence collected thus far, I see no reason to believe the bibs aren't in a positioning ranked order like in year's past.

The highest 10k bib is 35219
The highest HM bib is 6418
The highest challenge bib is 25664

There are 5219 + 5664 = 10883 10k bibs
There are 6418 + 5664 = 12082 HM bibs

As with year's past, not all bibs have been assigned. So the total number of runners will likely be less than this.

If they do a rate release system on the HM, then it'll take about 29 min to have the entire field cross the starting line. So for estimates, it'll be somewhere between 30-60 min after gun start for balloon lady start. Not really helpful in the grand scheme though since that's such a large potential window. I'd err on the side of a larger window than a shorter one as being more probable.

 

[pixarmom]

@DopeyBadger, I submitted a 1:57 POT and my challenge bib is 203XX. Estimated sub-2:00 finish and hope it's accurate after nearly two years of maintenance running without in-person races. I followed your training plan - the one that got me to 1:49 three years ago - but I'd just like to finish under 2:00 this weekend!

 

[FanforDisney]

@DopeyBadger, I submitted a 1:57 POT and my challenge bib is 203XX. Estimated sub-2:00 finish and hope it's accurate after nearly two years of maintenance running without in-person races. I followed your training plan - the one that got me to 1:49 three years ago - but I'd just like to finish under 2:00 this weekend!

Doing challenge - bib number = 209xx estimated time for half was 2:01-2:15. The last princesses race (2020), my time was 2:14

 

[erbam06]

Challenge bib number 204XX and submitted 10K POT of 53:31 with estimated finish 1:50 - 2:00.

 

[DopeyBadger]

Challenge bib number 204XX and submitted 10K POT of 53:31 with estimated finish 1:50 - 2:00.

This is a good one because it's the closest to the POT cutoff thus far. The 10k POT cutoff is 54:45, and by my calculation your 10k is equivalent to a 1:57:39 HM (using T2 = T1 X (D2/D1)^1.055).

It'll be interesting once we see the start group/corral assignments after you all pick up bibs, and how this data lines up with that information as well.

 

[DopeyBadger]

Based on these:

@btk2333 - 4xx - POT under 2 hrs
@SaraW - 9xx - Estimated 2:00-2:15
@HangWithMerida - 25xx - Estimated 2:00-2:15
@Wishuponastar0412 - 26XX - Estimated 2:16-2:30

@erbam06 - 204XX - 53:31 10k POT
@EveV - 225XX - Estimated 2:01-2:15
@broadsheet - 226xx - Estimated 2:16-2:30

There are about ~1600 solo HM bibs estimating 2:00-2:15 and ~2100 Challenge bibs estimating 2:00-2:15. So that's 3700 bibs give or a take a hundred or so margin of error minimally, that estimate 2:00-2:15. That 3700 bibs makes up 31% of the possible bib numbers calculated earlier (12082). I think that number will only be higher based on the lessening of the gap without a bib number to go off between @btk2333 and @SaraW. The number with a POT is about 1000-1500 or so. That would be 8-12% of the field which is in line with previous historical race data I have (average is 9.7%). Typically the 2:00-2:15 group makes up about 7.9% of the field when POT was required. So 31% would be quite an uptick. That's actually pretty close to what I estimated would be the number of people in the field inputting a 2:01-2:15 based on the MW numbers back in July (link). I estimated about 32% of the field.

This is all based on the assumption that the bib numbers are ranked ordered, and that still looks like a good assumption.