Will resale prices go down after Jan 19th?

[Cyberc1978]

Legacy 14 are bound to rise in price, if the economy does well.
Simple supply and demand.
Assuming the economy continues to do well, DVC will continue to attract more customers. There’s obviously more customers now, with Copper Creek points sold, than there were when Poly was on sale and so on.
There’s also more customers buying resale. Consider the amount of resale companies and contracts on sale, compared to even 5 years ago.
So assuming the demand for resale also continues to rise like it always has done, then which contracts do the extra customers want? They want the original 14, unless Riviera is hitting the market cheaply and not being ROFRd they don’t want that.
Addtionally these legacy resorts are being price manipulated by DVC, pushing the cost higher than demand v supply alone.
I think we will see the DVC 1 resorts gaining in price significantly, at least until there’s an economic downturn, then we could see quite a correction.

I agree, the DVC1(WDW) resorts wont decrease in price unless the economy goes sour or until DVC2 resorts have a critical mass and DVC1 resort have reached 2042 and maybe even at that point only some will be decreased in price namely the ones which have expired or will expire closely after. Resorts which does not expire in 2042 wont see a hit in price until we are closer to the expiration to that resort.

When DVC2 reach a critical mass and DVC1 only have maybe 3 resorts left for resale owners to exchange into then we will start to see an impact to the price too.

That would mean that VGF, PVB & CCV are the last to expire, so unless buyers want to stay there they wont buy in.

 

[DaveNan]

I agree, the DVC1(WDW) resorts wont decrease in price unless the economy goes sour or until DVC2 resorts have a critical mass and DVC1 resort have reached 2042 and maybe even at that point only some will be decreased in price namely the ones which have expired or will expire closely after. Resorts which does not expire in 2042 wont see a hit in price until we are closer to the expiration to that resort.

When DVC2 reach a critical mass and DVC1 only have maybe 3 resorts left for resale owners to exchange into then we will start to see an impact to the price too.

That would mean that VGF, PVB & CCV are the last to expire, so unless buyers want to stay there they wont buy in.

I agree they will hold in price with and be subject to market variability until 2042. Which they would with or without the changes.

My only uncertainty come once the pool starts to shrink. Each resort my hold its value until the last 10 years of its duration, or in 2042 you may see all of the remaining resorts take a little hit in price. When the DVC1 (14) become the DVC1 (9), that may hit them all. In particular, losing the option of BCV and BWV may matter to some. Most first time buyers, new or resale, are not overly informed on availability and think they can stay where ever they want when they want. If the option of the EPCOT area resorts is off the table that may hit them all a little. But in general, the monorail resorts all go closer to 2060, so I would guess points will retain most of their value.

 

[sshaw0715]

For me as a regular consumer the new rules do make a difference to me. We are currently in ROFR for our first contract. If it doesn’t pass I don’t think I will make another offer at current prices. I love the original resorts and I am fine staying at them, but what’s coming is also exciting. If Disney turns their attention away from the original resorts and they become less of a priority they will also not be as desirable as they are now. We will see where things go, but for us now it’s either this contract we are waiting on or none at all.

 

[Wakey]

Yes I agree with the above posts re 2042.

 

[MommaBerd]

If Disney turns their attention away from the original resorts and they become less of a priority they will also not be as desirable as they are now.

Do you mean that they begin to neglect them? I don’t think that will happen because Disney also has CRO inventory that they want to sell. If the property becomes in bad shape, it will hurt their own business. The only properties I would be slightly concerned about would be OKW and SSR, since they are less “desirable” due to location.

 

[crvetter]

Do you mean that they begin to neglect them? I don’t think that will happen because Disney also has CRO inventory that they want to sell. If the property becomes in bad shape, it will hurt their own business. The only properties I would be slightly concerned about would be OKW and SSR, since they are less “desirable” due to location.

I would agree any DVC resort attached to a Cash Resort will never be neglected unless they decided to neglect the Cash Resort too. It would be too detrimental to their image if they did because guests paying tons of cash will not want to look at neglected buildings right next door. Plus they don't pay for the upkeep we do so I don't really ever imagine it happening.

 

[Matty B13]

What will be interesting, is when all those direct DVC 2.0 contract holders want to get into Poly, VGF, and CCV towards the end of those resort expiration dates, and are locked out, because the resale DVC 1.0 owners have no where else to use their points and book rooms at the 11 month mark. Going to love the spin the DVC marketing puts on that....... of course I guess they could open up a DVC Poly 2.0 or VGF 2.0 by taking even more cash rooms away from the resorts.

 

[MommaBerd]

What will be interesting, is when all those direct DVC 2.0 contract holders want to get into Poly, VGF, and CCV towards the end of those resort expiration dates, and are locked out, because the resale DVC 1.0 owners have no where else to use their points and book rooms at the 11 month mark. Going to love the spin the DVC marketing puts on that....... of course I guess they could open up a DVC Poly 2.0 or VGF 2.0 by taking even more cash rooms away from the resorts.

I am sure that Disney will be revisiting the DVC resorts as the contracts expire and re-issuing new contracts. The DVC2 owners will be able to trade i to those.

 

[Ben E N]

I am sure that Disney will be revisiting the DVC resorts as the contracts expire and re-issuing new contracts. The DVC2 owners will be able to trade i to those.

Right, but in the 10-20 years before that can happen, which is a long time, DVC2 owners will not be able to book any rooms at Magic Kingdom resorts. They pretty much have to open a BLT2, GFV2, and even a Poly2.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

For me as a regular consumer the new rules do make a difference to me. We are currently in ROFR for our first contract. If it doesn’t pass I don’t think I will make another offer at current prices. I love the original resorts and I am fine staying at them, but what’s coming is also exciting. If Disney turns their attention away from the original resorts and they become less of a priority they will also not be as desirable as they are now. We will see where things go, but for us now it’s either this contract we are waiting on or none at all.

The care, maintenance and refurbishments of the DVC resorts are paid for by the owners. No need for DVC to neglect them and they'd be neglecting their managerial duties if they did so.

 

[ScubaCat]

The care, maintenance and refurbishments of the DVC resorts are paid for by the owners. No need for DVC to neglect them and they'd be neglecting their managerial duties if they did so.

And, it would be drastically harder to sell new properties if they developed a reputation for not keeping up with the older ones. So, with members covering the cost anyway, they'd be foolish not to maintain them.