Why we don't buy VB for SAP's...

[linzjane88]

For fun I was playing with my DVC spreadsheet and since many of the 15 year costs on 150 points for various resorts were in the 40-50k range I decided to alter the purchase price to show what damage dues can do. I wanted to see how close I could get the total 15 year cost to 45k (factoring in current annual dues increasing by 5% each year) by playing around with the per point buy in price.



This shows just how intensely those annual dues eat into your 'savings' when buying points. Getting 150 Vero Beach points at $18 per point would cost you the same in 15 years as having bought BLT for $135 PP!

This is showing the 30 year mark, trying to hit 100K as the total all in cost:


The main takeaway is that Aulani subsidized, VGF, BLT, SSR are definitely the prime SAP targets and can tolerate a decent increase in the purchase price before it really makes a dent. I am sure there are a million flaws in my worksheet but it entertains me anyhow.

 

[lilsonicfan]

i LOVE this analysis

 

[sethschroeder]

So a flaw

MFs won't be the same across the resorts. Additionally DLT can expect a 3-4 year reduction in MF increases substantially below the increase other resorts find.

So while others will increase 5% per your calculation you should predict it to be 0%, 1%, 2%, 3%, then finally 5% if you want to use a broad 5% increase.

With resorts starting to age out I suspect places like OKW and SSR with smaller various buildings with large grounds as well as lower point charts to see more dramatic increases than others.

Higher point charts means they can have lower MFs long term for the same amount of maintenance.

 

[RoseGold]

The inverse is also true, which is why VDH is so appealing to use off site. Take away 1/3 of the dues and call them something else, and they will increase slower. Put one at 3% and the others at 5% and you see it.

 

[linzjane88]

So a flaw

MFs won't be the same across the resorts. Additionally DLT can expect a 3-4 year reduction in MF increases substantially below the increase other resorts find.

So while others will increase 5% per your calculation you should predict it to be 0%, 1%, 2%, 3%, then finally 5% if you want to use a broad 5% increase.

With resorts starting to age out I suspect places like OKW and SSR with smaller various buildings with large grounds as well as lower point charts to see more dramatic increases than others.

Higher point charts means they can have lower MFs long term for the same amount of maintenance.

That is true. VDH got a pretty unfair shake going straight 5%on everything. But I think we can all agree that VB is a Bad Hombre Unless of course you like going to Vero Beach.

I actually wish I would have run this calculation when I was buying. I balked at the 120s BLT was commanding at the time vs the 80s for SSR. In hindsight I wish I had the 11 month advantage at BLT because the extra few hundred wouldn't really make a difference in the long run.

 

[sethschroeder]

I actually wish I would have run this calculation when I was buying. I balked at the 120s BLT was commanding at the time vs the 80s for SSR. In hindsight I wish I had the 11 month advantage at BLT because the extra few hundred wouldn't really make a difference in the long run.

Bingo and why buy where you want to stay is the way to go.

The difference long term isn't that great.

Plus if you bought BLT you would possibly even get standard rooms sometimes saving points.

 

[tom1944]

Bingo and why buy where you want to stay is the way to go.

The difference long term isn't that great.

Plus if you bought BLT you would possibly even get standard rooms sometimes saving points.

Or divide your points into 2 contracts and buy both

 

[CarolMN]

In hindsight I wish I had the 11 month advantage at BLT because the extra few hundred wouldn't really make a difference in the long run.

This is so often overlooked amid all the 'savings' spreadsheets, which are necessarily full of assumptions that may or may not turn out to be accurate.

Sometimes the money is not the most important consideration. Maybe it shouldn't trump the heart. Savings are soon forgotten (or don't seem to matter anymore) when you can't stay where you want to be.

 

[tom1944]

Is it more common for most DVC owners to stay at one resort over the life of their ownership or do people usually try to stay at different resort’s?

 

[CarolMN]

It really does vary. Many stay mostly at their home resort(s), but many also 'sleep around'.

We almost always stay at the BWV in a 1 bedroom standard. In our 23+ years of ownership, we've also stayed at AKV (once), BLT (a few times), CCV (once), VB (twice) & VGF. All but AKV were split stays that ended at the BWV. We now own VGF for the 11 month priority for studios and have been spending the first few nights of our early December trips there, before ending at the BWV.

 

[tom1944]

We are staying at BLT in August on SSR points and if we find that the 1 bedroom works but 2 bathrooms are the reason then I will look for a BLT contract.

I just checked 10 new BLT deeds and the average price was a $137 and the average points were 150. The range was $125 to $155.

I can use my SSR points at Kidani or for 2 bedrooms at less expensive resorts.


The other consideration is direct at one of the 3 new resorts WDW. Riviera, POly2 or Ft Wilderness.

Currently I believe we will be trying a new resort each trip but the 2-bathroom availability could be a game changer on that decision.

 

[Sandisw]

Is it more common for most DVC owners to stay at one resort over the life of their ownership or do people usually try to stay at different resort’s?

Over the years, our "favorites" have changed, and while we did try other resorts to figure some of it out, we have definitely narrowed it down now and pretty much stay at RIV and VGF each trip...unless our plans change and we have to choose another option because we can't get those for new dates or room sizes.

We do own 300 SSR points still...and, I do use them to book at 7 months at those two resorts if there is still availability, which is great because then it frees up my home resort points for the following year....

 

[Flash_Sloth]

You are listing the expiration years, but I think those really need to be highlighted in addition to your cost analysis.

In 15 years, the 2042 resorts will be just a couple of years away from 2041, which is the last year they'll receive points. In 15 years, their potential value on the resale market will be very low.

You mentioned regretting not buying BLT. In 15 years, it will still have more than 20 years left, and should still hold a fair amount of potential value on the resale market.

I don't think many people buy into DVC with a plan to sell after exactly 15 (or however many) years, but it should make some interesting data in a spreadsheet.

 

[tom1944]

Over the years, our "favorites" have changed, and while we did try other resorts to figure some of it out, we have definitely narrowed it down now and pretty much stay at RIV and VGF each trip...unless our plans change and we have to choose another option because we can't get those for new dates or room sizes.

We do own 300 SSR points still...and, I do use them to book at 7 months at those two resorts if there is still availability, which is great because then it frees up my home resort points for the following year....

The fact that plans will change is the reason I keep trying to figure out what our next purchase should be.

Right now, running through my head is that having 2 bathrooms in a 1 bedroom is great and maybe we have to buy resale at BLT.

Then I think having direct points is necessary especially if Poly2 is a new association.

At least I have time to decide (and confuse myself more).

 

[linzjane88]

You are listing the expiration years, but I think those really need to be highlighted in addition to your cost analysis.

In 15 years, the 2042 resorts will be just a couple of years away from 2041, which is the last year they'll receive points. In 15 years, their potential value on the resale market will be very low.

You mentioned regretting not buying BLT. In 15 years, it will still have more than 20 years left, and should still hold a fair amount of potential value on the resale market.

I don't think many people buy into DVC with a plan to sell after exactly 15 (or however many) years, but it should make some interesting data in a spreadsheet.

For me personally the 2042 resorts are out of the mix based on their end date. The only one I might have a soft spot for is BWV. I do lean towards adding on at VGF or BLT but we'll see how incentives go over the next few months. I go back and forth and honestly the restrictions are annoying to me and I don't know if I want to commit to learning every new rule on what this point or that point can do and where it can book. DVC was so appealing over Wyndham because of how easy it was and in the last few years it's changed so much.

 

[perchy]

The 2042 points cost nothing after 2042. That can be viewed at a benefit to some. Especially in retirement when not having those expenses can also make a difference.

 

[sethschroeder]

The 2042 points cost nothing after 2042. That can be viewed at a benefit to some. Especially in retirement when not having those expenses can also make a difference.

I would just say though that unless WDW goes under I don't see any contract not at least recovering MFs on the rental market and likely able to at least give away the contract.

The way to look at it is that Disney charges MF + profit on the cash side while in DVC you are only paying for MF as you prepaid a fixed profit margin upon original purchase.

 

[Starport Seven-Five]

This shows just how intensely those annual dues eat into your 'savings' when buying points. Getting 150 Vero Beach points at $18 per point would cost you the same in 15 years as having bought BLT for $135 PP!

One flaw to think about is this analysis treats today dollars with the same value as future dollars. The $117/pt difference could be invested and the returns would cover the difference in dues between the two properties.

(Of course the $18/pp isn't realistic so the real math is harder)

 

[Genie+]

Ooh I like! Interesting way to look at the long term.

Currently we are looking at either Poly of GFV. Both are resorts we prefer, have decent dues, and 40+ years left contracts. While we cannot predict the future, we do know some resorts will hold value better than others relative to upfront cost. I’d rather not get left holding the bag if wanting to resell. Poly/GFV seem like they’ll always have strong demand, right there at MK, with large rooms and well appointed resorts. Buying resale at the huge non-park resorts worries me because their resale value will be most impacted if DVC ever comes down on commercial renting.

 

[kboo]

Is it more common for most DVC owners to stay at one resort over the life of their ownership or do people usually try to stay at different resort’s?

We bought in this order: BLT, VGF, RIV and until well into the pandemic we only used our points at our home resorts. We found that the studio split bath at VGF and RIV was pretty good for our needs (2 adults, 2 kids). Since we were canceling/rebooking trips during the pandemic and usual booking patterns were off, we have stayed at BWV, BCV x2, AKV during the pandemic, and most recently AUL. We have also been able to book VGC at 7mo (but then decided to go to Hawaii) - I don't harbor any expectations that we'd be able to do that again. This upcoming trip we are splitting BLT and AKV savanna.

I'm not super interested in OKW/SSR because we have enough Marriott points to just stay at Swan/Dolphin and if we wanted a kitchen, 1br are easier to get. We'd like to try Poly and CCV/BRV and we do go there for ADRs. Right now RIV is DH's favorite, VGF is the kids' favorite (although they like any resort, really), and I am a toss up between the 2. BLT is a sentimental favorite and I am looking forward to the refurb next year. I think it will be a game changer to own at 3 new/ly refurbed resorts and maybe alleviate some VGC FOMO.

The only one I might have a soft spot for is BWV.

Same! So much so that every time we looked at buying a new home resort, we re-looked at BWV and BCV. It's usually possible to get pool/garden view, especially in 1BRs, so we decided we would be ok with our home resort and occasionally switch to BWV or BCV if there was availability at 7mo.