Why wait times have gotten crazy

[havoc315]

I know there has been a lot of discussion about the recent seeming crazy crowds... Christmas-level wait times, in September and October...

Over in the comments of the touringplans blog, there is an interesting comment from Len Testa of touringplans.... They are basically trying to figure it out themselves, and they don't think it has anything to do with attendance.

Here is part of his comment, go see the blog for the whole thing:

The two theories we’re looking at now are:

1) Disney has reduced capacity at the rides. This saves labor cost and maintenance cost, but increases wait times. That can lead to more dissatisfied guests, so the question is whether the cost savings are worth it. (It’s also useful if you want to justify a move to “surge” pricing. Just sayin’.) We’re counting the number of people riding the rides now versus last year, to see if this is happening. It takes a while to collect these numbers.

2) There have been changes to Fastpass+ allocation or use. It’s possible that Disney (or guests) have increased use of FP+, which would drive up standby times. We’re checking the advance and day-of availability to see whether the supply has increased or decreased. It’s also possible to check the standby wait time and # of people in line, to see if the Fastpass-to-Standby guest allocation has changed, and we’re looking at that too.

3) The posted waits are artificially inflated to make the park look more crowded. We have tens of thousands of posted and actual wait times, dating back years, and this is what we’re using for the comparison. That should be done in a few days.

I think it’s safe to say at this point, that the cause of the increased wait times is a change Disney made to its park operations. We just need to finish up the math to make the case.

 

[kip0992]

I would bet a lot of it is #2. Disney really pushes the FP+ concept hard. It would be almost impossible not to hear about it now, as opposed to the "old" days where lots of people didn't use the old paper fastpasses (whether they didn't know about them or just didn't bother to use them). More people with FP+ means more people "virtually" waiting in two lines...which makes the parks more "crowded", even though there aren't any extra people there.

 

[slickpoetry]

I don't have hard data prepared to back this up, but it seems to me that as each season passes, the discounts offered on Disney resorts seem to be less and less, harder to get, and with more strings attached. This would suggest Disney is less desperate to fill vacant rooms, which would suggest there are less vacant rooms, which would suggest there are more people in the parks.

take that for what it's worth. it's just another thing to think about. As far as I know, Disney does not release attendance figures so I don't know why Len is so certain he should be operating under the assumption that there aren't more people in the park.

 

[havoc315]

I would bet a lot of it is #2. Disney really pushes the FP+ concept hard. It would be almost impossible not to hear about it now, as opposed to the "old" days where lots of people didn't use the old paper fastpasses (whether they didn't know about them or just didn't bother to use them). More people with FP+ means more people "virtually" waiting in two lines...which makes the parks more "crowded", even though there aren't any extra people there.

That's my guess. In the "old days," your generic guest would be standing in line for Big Thunder Mountain for 40 minutes... then another 40 Minutes at Splash... then 30 at Pirates... And by the end of the day, only get 5 or 6 attractions in.
Now, that generic user is in the virtual line for each of those 3 attractions, giving them another hour or 2 to spend in real life.... so they line up for Haunted Mansion, and Jungle Cruise, etc, etc... the cumulative effect pushing up the wait times across the entire park.

I think the fortunate/unfortunate effect is that the generic guest who does just some minor planning (booking FPs) now gets to do more attractions, while the planners are squeezed into doing fewer attractions.

I have friends, total non-planners, who went during Easter week a couple years ago. They walked into the park at 11, and "had a good time even though we only go to do one ride" -- They waited 60 minutes for Small World, saw a parade, and called it a day. If they went with the new system, they would have had 3 FPs -- 10-11-12.. Could arrive around 10:30, get in the 3 FP attractions and 1 horrible standby line... And get 4 attractions in. So this new system really helps them. But if they are doing 3 more attractions, it means someone else is doing 3 less attractions (or at least 1-2 less, even if there are added efficiencies).

 

[havoc315]

I don't have hard data prepared to back this up, but it seems to me that as each season passes, the discounts offered on Disney resorts seem to be less and less, harder to get, and with more strings attached. This would suggest Disney is less desperate to fill vacant rooms, which would suggest there are less vacant rooms, which would suggest there are more people in the parks.

take that for what it's worth. it's just another thing to think about. As far as I know, Disney does not release attendance figures so I don't know why Len is so certain he should be operating under the assumption that there aren't more people in the park.

Actually, it is possible to get attendance figures. If you see his whole post, attendance is up 2-4%, which isn't enough to account for the wait time increases.

I agree that it appears they are doing a better job filling the resorts, but that isn't directly correlated to park attendance. Not like vacancy rates have gone from 50% to 99%. More like, they are doing a better job... so it's 90% instead of 85%. And much of that, is the conversion of off-site guests into on-site guests. Which doesn't directly increase park attendance.

 

[MermaidMommy]

Josh has a very interesting post about increased wait times, and he places the blame squarely on FP+.

"There are a few things that come into play with the higher wait times than we’ve seen in past years. Yes, crowds are up, but as a percentage, it’s only in the very low single digits as compared to last year. And looking over September attendance, the percentage jump was actually higher from 2013 to 2014 than 2014 to 2015. The main culprit, as I’ve discussed endlessly over the last couple of years, is FastPass+ priority and maximum FastPass+ distribution. FastPass+ availability gets worse every day as more and more people become aware of the system and make their plans in advance."

http://www.easywdw.com/uncategorize...at-walt-disney-world-october-2015-wait-times/

 

[mom2rtk]

Wasn't a big part of the reason for FP+ so that Disney could right size their staffing?

I'm going with number 1 as the biggest driver. Witness how FP slots are easier to find for high demand attractions in peak crowd times compared with Sept/Oct.

 

[havoc315]

Josh has a very interesting post about increased wait times, and he places the blame squarely on FP+.

"There are a few things that come into play with the higher wait times than we’ve seen in past years. Yes, crowds are up, but as a percentage, it’s only in the very low single digits as compared to last year. And looking over September attendance, the percentage jump was actually higher from 2013 to 2014 than 2014 to 2015. The main culprit, as I’ve discussed endlessly over the last couple of years, is FastPass+ priority and maximum FastPass+ distribution. FastPass+ availability gets worse every day as more and more people become aware of the system and make their plans in advance."

http://www.easywdw.com/uncategorize...at-walt-disney-world-october-2015-wait-times/

FP+ may be the worst thing that ever happened to some of us.

 

[bushy23]

I just spent 4 days at the parks last week and it seemed overall a lot more crowded then the same trip 6 years ago. 6 years ago we were able to do just about everything thanks to a smart plan and using the paper fast passes. This time around, we had to skip things because by the time we got to the park and used our first three FP+, everything else was gone. Didn't feel like waiting in 45 minute lines with kids. Animal Kingdom seemed fine, even with the construction, but Epcot and MK seemed to have longer lines than before.

 

[DisDadDVC]

FP+ may be the worst thing that ever happened to some of us.

There is an inverse relationship between what is good for Disney and what is good for us.

 

[ArwenMarie]

I think it's #1 and #2 combined. Which is not good.

 

[havoc315]

There is an inverse relationship between what is good for Disney and what is good for us.

Eh. The FP+ system is probably great for many people.

And lots of things are great for everyone -- anything that increases customer satisfaction is generally good for Disney and for us.

But it feels like the FP+ system increased satisfaction for some people, by taking it away from others.

 

[MakiraMarlena]

I don't have hard data prepared to back this up, but it seems to me that as each season passes, the discounts offered on Disney resorts seem to be less and less, harder to get, and with more strings attached. This would suggest Disney is less desperate to fill vacant rooms, which would suggest there are less vacant rooms, which would suggest there are more people in the parks.

It would mean there are more people in the parks who are staying at Disney resorts...of course if you limited park admittance only to guests of Disney resorts, the parks would seem pretty empty. The big crowds are the result of yet more visitors who are not staying at Disney resorts.

 

[havoc315]

I think it's #1 and #2 combined. Which is not good.

#1 is easily fixable. #2 is more troublesome.

 

[havoc315]

It would mean there are more people in the parks who are staying at Disney resorts...of course if you limited park admittance only to guests of Disney resorts, the parks would seem pretty empty. The big crowds are the result of yet more visitors who are not staying at Disney resorts.

Easywdw had a good analysis of this.... Josh (author of easywdw) posits that on-site is actually pretty constant through the whole year. I think he said at about 80,000 guests. Even during the slowest times of years, they are still pretty consistent, by offering bigger discounts, conventions, etc.
So on-site remains almost constant -- While the real fluctuation to park attendance is due to off-site. So a slight bump in the on-site numbers isn't going to really change the equation.

 

[dlavender]

I had my first experience with FP + last Saturday. Overall, seemed like an ok system. I noticed the biggest problem with it at the Enchanted Tales with Belle. We were in a 20 min stand by line, which ended up being 40. The stand by line just sits there, while they let all the FP people walk in, when that line is clear, then they let some stand by through. Im pretty sure those FP's were most of those people's 4th or 5th FP's. Seems like it was an inefficient way to load, and unnecessary to have a FP for that attraction. Instead of a walk on for 20 people, and a 40 minute wait for 60 people, it could have been a 15 min wait for everyone. 6 of one, half dozen of the other I guess. All in all, doesn't seem like a terrible system, but seems like after the headliners, the system is inefficient. I wonder what the park would look like with no FP? I also watched Buzz jump from a 40 to a 70 min wait in a matter of 10 mins as the FP crowd all showed up at once. On Space, instead of having one side for FP and one side for stand by, would the total wait be 50 mins vs 90 stand by, if there was no FP?

 

[ArwenMarie]

#1 is easily fixable. #2 is more troublesome.

Agree. It's really moving more and more to an all-reservation ride system if that is the case. The 4th FP and beyond makes it even more so. The comment above about ETWB is a good example of that.

 

[MaryKatesMom]

Since it opened we have visited TSMM right at opening as one of the first families at the turnstiles. Our first trip with FP+, instead of walking to the attraction and through the que right onto the ride with no stopping we had to stop and wait to ride.

This was due to two changes. They went back to a rope drop so the running of the bulls was back on (a very bad management decision) and FP+ starts right at opening.

 

[dlavender]

A little OT, but, the more I think about it, does anyone think that Disney will soon make FP + a resort guest only feature? Seems like it could be a major selling point in the on-site, off-site decision. Would allow them to almost do away with all discounts, which they seem to be weaning us off of anyway. I just don't understand the need for a FP at ETWB, IASW, Barnstormer, Dumbo.......

 

[ArwenMarie]

A little OT, but, the more I think about it, does anyone think that Disney will soon make FP + a resort guest only feature? Seems like it could be a major selling point in the on-site, off-site decision. Would allow them to almost do away with all discounts, which they seem to be weaning us off of anyway. I just don't understand the need for a FP at ETWB, IASW, Barnstormer, Dumbo.......

I think they would have done it already. I thought they were going to keep prebooking for onsite only then same-day for offsite. But then they added it. I imagine it's a fine balance between rewarding onsite stays and alienating offsite too much, whether local APs or offsite tourists.