What Does a '10' Day on TP Look Like?

[wishicouldgomoreofte]

This. The crowd is the calendar doesn’t go above a 10. They pretty evenly distribute 1-10 so holidays are always a 10. They are super 10s as I call them as a regular 10 it will be busy and you need a plan but it won’t be as crowded as a holiday day if that makes any sense

What a cute picture!

 

[AngiTN]

Thank you! This is exactly the information I was looking for.

I may be the exception but I still fully appreciate the crowd calendars. We were at Disney 3 times last year and found them to be accurate 90%+ of the time. In January we were at MK 3 days. The first 2 were a 3 and 4 and were great crowds. Our last day went up to a 7 on TP and it was significantly busier!! I was glad we were able to mentally prepare for the larger crowds. The ride waits may not have increased significantly but, just the 'feel' of walking around on a 3 or 4 day compared to a 7 was significant!!

Also, highly recommend online ordering. It is THE BEST!!! It went live during our Jan 2018 stay for guests using the DDP and made a big difference. We haven't looked back since!

Yeah, while touring plans doesn't go above 10 there is a difference between a 10 on Christmas/New Years and a 10 on a normally crowded day.

You simply can't trust any crowd calendar says any other day in the year is the same crowd level as this week
A 10 is the highest. No other week will be this crowded. There are not different 10s. All other days are less than 10

To me, if this were true that would make crowd calendars even more useless. Two different days labeled a "10" are different? Then what the heck is a "10", and what's the point if the rating scale is different for the same number?

Exactly. There can't be two different 10s!

One big thing to remember is the TP crowd numbers are based on wait times, not how crowded a park feels. So when Disney monkeys with staffing and attraction capacity like it did last winter, the wait times will mimic the most-crowded times of year (hence how a Saturday in early February can get the same 10 as New Year's).

Also my point

 

[sablebomb]

Had the same thing happen to me last night- our dates increased from between 2 and 5 up to 9 and 10 (at all parks too- not just MK).
Ours is for November so I'm taking it with a grain of salt at the moment. I'm sure it will change again.

 

[MaC410]

You simply can't trust any crowd calendar says any other day in the year is the same crowd level as this week
A 10 is the highest. No other week will be this crowded. There are not different 10s. All other days are less than 10


Exactly. There can't be two different 10s!


Also my point

There shouldn't be two different 10s...but there is. A major holiday 10 that closes down entry to the park is not the same 10 that pops up at other busier times of year. I'm not saying that this rating system is accurate or good. I'm using it as an example to show how you can't actually trust these crowd calendars because 10s may be completely different depending on the day.

 

[Jetta8300]

One big thing to remember is the TP crowd numbers are based on wait times, not how crowded a park feels. So when Disney monkeys with staffing and attraction capacity like it did last winter, the wait times will mimic the most-crowded times of year (hence how a Saturday in early February can get the same 10 as New Year's).

The guy who made the crowd calendars on Touring Plans is getting BLASTED on his blog with people complaining about the increases. But his explanation was the same as yours above, that they aren't actually predicting crowd levels, but only wait times at the few core rides in the park. I think this is misleading. To me, a park feels like a 10 when the wait time for "Ellen's Energy Adventure" was 60 minutes. lol Space Mountain is always busy.

I think it's also a bit drastic since they are calling the first week of march a peak week when it's not traditionally a peak week, or a busy week for spring break. His explaination is this:

"Thanksgiving 2018 was busier than expected. Our models treat that as evidence that other peak weeks will be busier too. That is partly why we see large increases during early March, a big week for Spring Break. However, the second half of March sees changes on this update in the downward direction."

Other websites went from calling that week "low" crowds to "moderately busy". But no other websites are calling that week 10's.

 

[Klayfish]

I actually have a subscription to TP, because I like the crowd sourced wait time list. That's actually valuable. But the crowd calendar is a joke, at best.

 

[MinnieMSue]

My daughter’s marching band visited MK 1/2 and she called me and said she has never been in the parks when it was as crowded as she was experiencing that day. Wait times were terrible. She and her small group of 5 girls had an awful time just moving through the park. We have been there thanksgiving and July 4 week and Easter week over the last couple years and she said it was much much worse. Wait time was posted 130 min for space mtn and it ended up being almost 3 hr. Normally she never would have waited that long but the first timers really wanted to do it. They barely rode anything all day (they didn’t get their tickets until they arrived at the park so no prebooked FP). They had a great time being together but my daughter said it was nuts. The group split to get different snacks and they couldn’t even reconnect (partly because half had never been there before). At 6:30 I told them to find a place for 8pm fireworks in the hub. She called me and said they could barely enter the hub. I told her to find the garden in front of Casey’s (opposite fireworks party garden where we have watched in the past). I told her to try to get in it if it wasn’t all reserved and that was a win. It was packed like sardines outside the garden but a decent amount of space around and in front of them in that area so they got a perfect view of HEA. My daughter said something to a cast member and he said they almost had to do a phased closure. She told him she believed it. Touring plans did show it as a 10 on actual crowd - was supposed to be a 9. Unfortunate that some of those kids one and only day at Disney was on such a packed day. But they all had a blast so that’s what matters

 

[coasternut22]

We were thre last February when days ended up being mostly 8s, but our AK day ended up being a 10(forecast was a 7, I think?). It was very very busy, but still not as crazy as some of those Christmas pictures. There were bottlenecks wee it was hard to move, though, so not too far off.

We had a solid plan, arrived early, hit our FPs, and got OUT midday when it got hot and crazy. We came back in the evening, and crowds were still high (closing time was extended the day before and again during the day),but we had (old school anytime) rider swap to use at FOP, did a mobile order at Satuli, and used dining plan tickets for ROL. So we got done what we wanted and just were patient moving through the masses.

I think our upcoming March trip likely overlaps with your friends—we’re coming from Ontario, heading down before March break starts but staying through part of that week. Several of our earlier days have also been bumped to very high predictions. I’m going to go over our plans with a fine tooth comb to nail down the smoothest plan we can have, but I’m confident we can still have a good time. I think with your planning your friends will still enjoy it, too—especially if they are willing to do things like get an early start.

This was our experience last year almost to a T. We went in late January 2017 again in late January 2018, and will be going again in 3 weeks. I particularly remember our Animal Kingdom day last year. In January 2017 I'm guessing it was a true crowd level 3 day. There were lines for attractions, but the paths were clear and there were no particularly long lines for non-attraction things like restaurants. It was a very relaxing day. In January 2018, I remember thinking to myself "my god it's packed, way more than last year." Of course Pandora was open, but every walkway was crowded. Every show was full and were turning people away. Every restaurant had lines 5-10 groups deep.

But the single biggest thing I use to tell whether it is a crowd level 3 or 10 is fastpass availability throughout the day. On crowd level 3 days, you can get a lot of fastpasses within the hour or two. On crowd level 10 days, if you search for fastpasses at 1pm, most will have return times of 5pm or later. That's how I knew just how busy it was on that Animal Kingdom day last year. And going back to Touring Plans, yup, they said it was predicted to be a 3 and turned out to be a 10.

But as the poster I quoted above said, we had a solid plan, stuck to it, and never really had to deal with the crowds. That' how we do it every single park day. So when I got the email last night, I said to myself "Oh well, nothing has changed, except for TP just tempering our expectations." Because most of our crowd predicitons for the last week in January went from 4-5 to 9-10. They're just lining up to be what we actually experienced last year.

 

[scrappinginontario]

I think going in with realistic expectations is key and for that I’m thankful for sites that prepare me.

We visited the MK the evening of Dec 15, 2018 expecting it to be busier than it had been due to EMH and larger crowds predicted on TP. This was what we saw (and avoided by ordering using the app) at Casey’s Corner at 6:45pm.

People can choose to ignore crowd predictors. I get that.

For myself I’m thankful for them as I’d ather be mentally prepared for the above!

 

[acarsme123]

My two trips to DW were in mid-march during my son's spring break. 2016 and 2018. It was noticeably more crowded in 2018 than the 2016 trip. 2018 I believe we had crowds of 8s and 9s. I never experienced the parks as full as those pictures show! If you can get up for rope drop, and hit as many rides first thing, then use fast passes starting late morning and into the afternoon, I think it's a good strategy. It's worked well for us both times and we have gotten on everything we wanted to.

 

[Jimmy Mouse]

We were just there Christmas week and TP called it a 10 most days. We usually go September and I’ll take a 10 over the heat and rain any day. We had a better time despite the crowds and are going again Christmas week.
Pic from Frontier land.

 

[KrazeeK120]

My daughter’s marching band visited MK 1/2 and she called me and said she has never been in the parks when it was as crowded as she was experiencing that day. Wait times were terrible. She and her small group of 5 girls had an awful time just moving through the park. We have been there thanksgiving and July 4 week and Easter week over the last couple years and she said it was much much worse. Wait time was posted 130 min for space mtn and it ended up being almost 3 hr. Normally she never would have waited that long but the first timers really wanted to do it. They barely rode anything all day (they didn’t get their tickets until they arrived at the park so no prebooked FP). They had a great time being together but my daughter said it was nuts. The group split to get different snacks and they couldn’t even reconnect (partly because half had never been there before). At 6:30 I told them to find a place for 8pm fireworks in the hub. She called me and said they could barely enter the hub. I told her to find the garden in front of Casey’s (opposite fireworks party garden where we have watched in the past). I told her to try to get in it if it wasn’t all reserved and that was a win. It was packed like sardines outside the garden but a decent amount of space around and in front of them in that area so they got a perfect view of HEA. My daughter said something to a cast member and he said they almost had to do a phased closure. She told him she believed it. Touring plans did show it as a 10 on actual crowd - was supposed to be a 9. Unfortunate that some of those kids one and only day at Disney was on such a packed day. But they all had a blast so that’s what matters

My sister was there the same day and had a similar experience. Her in-laws live in FL during the winter, so they all did a day at MK as part of a longer trip to visit them. She has 2 sons (4 and 2). She said it was a half hour wait just to get on the Peoplemover, the Fastpass lines were close to 30 minutes, it was 30 minutes to get a snack or ice cream, etc. They did, fortunately, have a lunch reservation at Crystal Palace. She knew going in that it would be crowded and honestly wasn’t concerned with how “much” they did. It was more about being together. (And they still had a great time, which is all that matters!)

 

[teddygurl28]

What a cute picture!

This was her most recent interaction in March!

 

[BridgetBordeaux]

Rope drop and a touring plan are your best friends on a "10" day.

 

[wishicouldgomoreofte]

View attachment 374318
This was her most recent interaction in March!

Lovely!

 

[Deirdres]

This past year we were lucky enough to go 4 times (making up for the fact we hadn't been in 5 years). we were there New Years, spring break, beginning of October and Thanksgiving weekend. None of them compared to New Year's eve, it was a whole different level. I agree with others that a 10 for New Years and Christmas, is misleading, it should just say "MAX" or something equivalent.

 

[AngiTN]

This past year we were lucky enough to go 4 times (making up for the fact we hadn't been in 5 years). we were there New Years, spring break, beginning of October and Thanksgiving weekend. None of them compared to New Year's eve, it was a whole different level. I agree with others that a 10 for New Years and Christmas, is misleading, it should just say "MAX" or something equivalent.

To me, there's nothing wrong with using 10 to express a crowd level for Holidays. You just can't use 10 for other days too. 9.5 sure. But if 10 is the highest, then only the highest days garner the ranking. All other days are lower than that

 

[scrappinginontario]

To me, there's nothing wrong with using 10 to express a crowd level for Holidays. You just can't use 10 for other days too. 9.5 sure. But if 10 is the highest, then only the highest days garner the ranking. All other days are lower than that

This was what initiated this thread. I had just viewed those crazy crowded pics in post 1 and suddenly the trip I was booking for friends was showing 9's and 10's! They're going to celebrate the mom's 75th Birthday and locked into travel dates so I wasn't sure I was comfortable booking them without first warning them. I did and they've still decided to go but it's good to learn through the conversations here that a Christmas/New Year's Day 10 is not the same as a mid-March 10.

 

[kiford]

Keep in mind that a 10 is at peak. We were at MK on Christmas Day. We got there at 6 am (!!ack!!) and left at 10:30 am. By the time we left, there were people streaming into the park and it would have looked like the pictures above in short order. But until then, it was reasonably sparse until about 9 am, then started to get busy. We were able to watch the show in front of the castle about 10 am and were pretty close to the stage with lots of space between people. So, yes, a 10 (even at the busiest times) is packed but not all day. I'm totally not a morning/RD person but was willing to make the sacrifice for that day and our experience was good. We were also there on Christmas eve day and the 23rd, both also noted as a 10. We left on the 23rd at 1 pm after the noon parade (for which we had a good view) and it was very busy but still manageable.

 

[AntimonyER]

I can understand people being upset about the huge increases, but its better than being blindsided on a day listed as a "4" which ended up being a "10" actual crowd level, like what happened to us this year. The most annoying thing is the touring plan couldn't handle the difference.