What are realistic expectations for a 4th FP at MK?

Refreshing, changing party and modifying attractions can yield lots of rewards for 4th, 5th, 6th + FPs. I personally try to limit my FP hunting to when we are in cues or waiting for shows parades etc. It can be quite addicting so I have to consciously avoid being glued to my phone. I don't want my kids to see me always glued to my phone during our family vacations.
 
I'm glad I'm a solo or couple only traveler. Makes it much easier to get additional FP and, especially when solo, no need to worry about being glued to my phone. I totally understand people with kids not wanting to be glued to their phone.
 
And for posterity you managed to do this on a CL 9 day. I’m mystified. Some people are clearly having a much easier time snagging FP and I’ve been assuming it’s a matter of conditions (# of people, CL, length of refreshing, etc) and you’ve just convinced me it’s not. I can’t duplicate your success with the same number of people at a similar time of day, refreshing longer, under even less busy conditions.

Will you come with me on our trip and make my FPs. :D

I’m wondering if it’s not really one giant database of FPs, that maybe iits divided into smaller sub databases with each MDE account assigned to one and some have a higher number of FPs per total number of accounts? Klayfish has reported this level of ease across several trips so whatever it is iseems to be stable over time. @yulilin3, you are using the android app and not a browser, right?
yeah the app, while at MK in the afternoon. I would use my 3 fp morning to early afternoon and usually check around 3pm. I've done this for the last couple of weeks at MK and all the big rides plus meet and greets are gone. That's just checking for 1 person as well.
Just to add I did not refresh more than twice cause I didn't really NEED to ride anything else it was just to see what would come up
 
When we were there in late January 2018, by about 3 or 4pm the only fast passes left were for things like the tea cups & dumbo. We were a party of 5.

I don’t do the constant refreshing & trying different numbers of people as others do though. I’m on my phone all day long as part of my job, so when I’m on vacay I don’t want to be looking at my phone all the time :)
 


I've only been on Saturdays recently and I've been able to get 4th pretty easy for things like JC, PoC, HM, Buzz - never saw any mountains. Lots of little kids rides popping up, had a tougher time trying for number 5, this was usually around 2ish in the afternoon - usually only saw little kids rides or FP for times that were after dinner when we would already be gone. And this was with way way too much excessive refreshing. Trying to get used to doing that, but still not happy that it's either stare at your phone and refresh the entire time you're in line or end up waiting in a ridiculous line without a FP.
 
When we went recently, we were able to get Splash, Space, HM, Pirates, Princess meet & greet along with other lower priority FP+s. I never saw 7 Dwarves or Big Thunder for a 4th FP+. At other parks, we got Soarin, FOP, EE, RnR & Toy story for 4th FP+s. We are a party of 5 & I was surprised by the “good” FPs left in the afternoon. I did split our party a couple times but not at MK.
 
So I did go talk to the database guy at work and he had a couple suggestions for the disparities. The first was location. He said that if Disney is using Amazon’s database (which there are some indications they might be) then there would be separate data centers and the FPs are split among them. They would typically get rebalanced each night but if they were getting unbalanced during the day because one data center has more people hitting it you could see a noticeably different experience for day of FPs. But he said that probably doesn’t explain differences in experience while at the parks because he expects they would be on their own separate data centers. My experience has generally been about the same practicing at home as it has been in the parks so I don’t think this is the smoking gun.

He said Disney could be assigning people to a better sub database for marketing or loyalty reasons. I’ve noticed that some of the people saying they have an easy time getting things like FEA, 7DMT, and FOP are AP holders. So maybe this is Disney’s way of compensating AP holders a little for not getting a 60 day window - they get a better in park experience.

The last thing he mentioned was that he worked for a company that wrote apps fir accessing databases at a previous job and everyone there hated Apple. They wanted to drop support for iOS. His comment was that Apple stuff doesn’t work nicely with anything that isn’t Apple.

I ran some experiments on this by using the iPhone MDE app and downloading the Mozilla Firefox browser (to get as much Apple out of the mix as possible without having access to an android phone) and it looks like there might be some merit to this.

Yesterday on a CL 9 day I tried to duplicate @JETSDAD ‘s experience. I refreshed for 15 minutes on the browser starting at 1:55 and grabbed the best attractions and times I could get for 2 people. I then did the same for the app. I limited it to 15 mins each for the iPhone app and Firefox browser. I have screen shots but not a way to host them right now, unfortunately.

With the iPhone app I got:

Splash 6:05
PPF 6:10
Space 9:45

I did get 2 mountains and PPF but they are 4 to 8 hrs from when I was trying to get them. Nowhere close to the 1-3 hours and 7DMT that JETSDAD posted.

On the Firefox browser (and I didn’t run this for Safari because I’ve already been using it and not noticing a difference):

BTMR: 3:00
PPF: 4:20
Splash: 6:05

Again 2 mountains and PPF and a significant improvement in times. 1-4 hours out with 15 mins of refreshing.

This is doubly surprising because the app was twice as fast to load as the browser so it really should have gone the other way. I probably had about twice as many chances with the app as the browser and yet the browser came out well ahead. I did also notice a lot more M&Gs popping with browser than I am used to seeing (although that could have been because of MK being open later last night). Maybe the difference between the Firefox browser and JETSDAD’s experience is just that he’s on an app and therefore probably able to refresh faster.

I did not see 7DMT pop with either.

So with the caveat that this is a terrible sample size and while I still couldn’t duplicate JETSDAD’s experience, I would recommend that if you have an iPhone, consider downloading a 3rd party browser if 4+ FPs are important to you. Either that or buy an AP and borrow an android phone from someone.

Data nerd out :faint:
 
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My guess is that it boils down to luck. Do you happen to be the person who refreshes at the same time as someone drops a particular FP. That being said, I would think over a larger sample, the more often you can refresh the greater the chances of getting the better additional FP's.
I don't think it comes down to AP vs non-AP for 2 reasons. First, Disney IT is terrible and that would just be something else to go wrong. Second, Disney is not shy about offering benefits to those who pay. If there was a benefit to AP's I would think Disney would be promoting that fact.
The Android vs iPhone vs website I have no idea about. I don't see why it would make a difference but don't know enough about that to make a guess.
Just keep clicking.
 
My guess is that it boils down to luck. Do you happen to be the person who refreshes at the same time as someone drops a particular FP. That being said, I would think over a larger sample, the more often you can refresh the greater the chances of getting the better additional FP's.
I don't think it comes down to AP vs non-AP for 2 reasons. First, Disney IT is terrible and that would just be something else to go wrong. Second, Disney is not shy about offering benefits to those who pay. If there was a benefit to AP's I would think Disney would be promoting that fact.
The Android vs iPhone vs website I have no idea about. I don't see why it would make a difference but don't know enough about that to make a guess.
Just keep clicking.

There is absolutely luck, no question. And lucky definitely explains the person who posts saying OMG, I just got FOP for 5 starting in 5 minutes. But I definitely see two different narratives showing up on the board. One is people who refresh a lot and get D-ticket rides and the occasional E-ticket on slower days for small parties and those who keep saying they can basically get whatever they went whenever they want. Luck will get you the occasional E-ticket so I think there’s something more than luck going on.

I will say, I agree that the customer facing IT is not stellar at Disney but the back end folks are brilliant. When you think about how many people are hitting the FP database every moment (in the 10s of thousands), it’s incredible that the FP system works at all. Just try to share an Access database with 10 coworkers to appreciate the marvel.

That said, the AP thing could be unintentional. Maybe they are all in a separate database because it made sense for another reason and that database is smaller.

The browsers and different aps may be on different databases as well or maybe it’s something with how Apple software works. I don’t know enough about that either to say why but my little test was pretty eye opening how much easier it was to get good times from the non-Apple browser.
 
Wanna know the biggest reason this is trash? It still shows FP for Wishes. There are no FP for Wishes and haven't been for going on 2 years! The info it provides is useless. No one should even bother to look at it because it's telling you nothing.

Here's a chart from TP showing estimates of time same day FPs run out for a given crowd level.


 
I haven’t read the thread in its entirety, I’m just giving you my unfiltered opinion based on my own experience.

I’m a passholder and visit frequently during varying times, w/ varying crowds. That said, I’m not a local, so I do still put effort into fastpasses, since my trips aren’t weekly/daily. More one trip a month (at best) to every few months. Usually a long weekend.

THAT SAID…

Magic Kingdom is by far the best/easiest park to get a lot of bang for your buck out of a 4th fastpass. They have the most overall rides, so they have the best overall availability. (Generally speaking)

First and Foremost: Refresh is your friend. Don’t settle for whatever pops up the first time you check for a 4th fastpass. The results CAN AND WILL change with every single refresh. If I can’t find a pass I like, I refresh the app nonstop until I do.

Now, that said, there isn’t a ride in that park I haven’t gotten a fourth fastpass for on the day-of at least once (and that includes Mine Train). That said, it does fluctuate based on crowd levels, so your mileage may vary depending what time of year your trip is.

You can pretty much always pickup passes for some of the less thrilling rides such as Aladdin, Little Mermaid or Small World. On a low crowd day, Pirates of the Caribbean and Haunted Mansion usually also maintain good availability, but on a high crowd day those two can definitely dry up.

Peter Pan and Mine Train will generally always appear be gone by the day-of, but every now and again, you can luck out and stumble on an available time for even these two, if you refresh enough. (Your odds are way better on a low crowd day though. On a high crowd day, I wouldn’t hold my breath.)

Space Mountain and Big Thunder are typically your two highest priorities in the event you can’t get Mine Train. They may or may not be available at any given moment, depending on crowd level, but you can generally find them eventually if you refresh enough. Even during more crowded times.

Character meet & greets are intermittent and hit and miss. You usually can’t find every given character at every given time, but they come and go regularly throughout the day. I’d never stand in standby for a character. But frequently while refreshing I’ll say, “Hey, an Ariel just popped up 20 minutes from now. Wanna go meet Ariel?” lol. I totally just met Rapunzel & Tiana on one of my last trips because I was passing through fantasyland and the fastpass happened to be there at the exact right moment. Honest to god, this even applies to Mickey (who typically has the longest standby line). You’ll see Mickey fastpasses popup intermittently throughout the day. (PS. This also applies to Enchanted Tales w/ Belle… which is basically just an elaborate and more glorified character meet & greet, with more show elements)

In any event DON’T SETTLE when it comes to your fourth fastpass. So many people blow their first 3 early in the morning, before noon, then check once, and say, “Well, the best thing here is a Space Mountain at 5pm.” So they take it… and then just stop checking the app entirely And WAIT FIVE HOURS without using ANY more fastpasses all day until FIVE! And then once 5pm rolls around, availability is even worse! That’s MADNESS to me.

DON’T DO THAT! You CAN find fastpasses for rides you WANT to ride within an hour. ESPECIALLY at Magic Kingdom! The ONLY ride worth taking a far-off fastpass for, in my opinion, is Minetrain. MAYBE… Big Thunder or Space, but ONLY on a super crowded day. Any other ride I just keep refreshing until I find something within a reasonable amount of time.

But as I started by saying… that’s just my own individual opinion. Based on my experience.
 
Gillbob - do you find taking that 5pm Space Mtn FP and then working on refreshing the time works better than just continuing to look for it at a good time?
 
Gillbob - do you find taking that 5pm Space Mtn FP and then working on refreshing the time works better than just continuing to look for it at a good time?
I'm not the PP but yes, taking the first available time and refreshing does seem to give you a better chance at getting an earlier time than just refreshing
 
This is my average Magic Kingdom day:

Assuming I can’t get Minetrain (and I usually can’t) I book my first 3 fastpasses for Jungle Cruise, Pirates and Big Thunder. In that order. Adventureland is near the front, so it’s an easy path right off mainstreet.

If my day is moving along nicely, I might squeeze in the Tiki Room while I'm still in Adventureland, if I'm dilly dallying a lot, I won't.

Immediately after Big Thunder, I pickup the soonest fastpass I can find for Haunted Mansion. It's usually still early, so I can usually get one within an hour MAYBE two. If the Haunted Mansion pass is right away, I ride it right away. If it's a ways off, I might kill time doing Country Bears. Maybe Great Moments in History w/ the Muppets. Sometimes Splash Mountain also, though I tend to go in the fall and winter a lot, so Splash waits usually aren't bad at all that time of year (people at times don't want to ride it in fall and winter, if it's sweater weather). In the dead of Summer, Splash would have a much longer wait, I expect, and I'd usually skip it. I'm not nuts for Splash, so I admit, I omit it a lot. But killing time usually isn’t an issue regardless, because usually I find a Haunted Mansion within an hour.

After Mansion, I grab a Small World Pass. You can usually find a Small World pass within 30 minutes of the current time. There’s no reason to ever ride Small World standby.

At this point, I’ve hit pretty much all my top priorities except Space Mountain and Minetrain, so I’ll do one of two things. If it’s a low crowd day, and Space Mt. has good availability (and is likely to maintain good availability, and still be available later) I’ll spend a slow afternoon picking up fastpasses for other things. Some character meet and greets (most of which are in fantasyland) or riding things like Pooh and Little Mermaid (also fairly fantasyland adjacent)… Eventually that slow afternoon bleeds over into Tomorrowland, and I’ll pickup things like Space, Tomorrowland Speedway & Buzz Lightyear, as it’s convenient. And I'll fill the gaps with Carousel of progress or people mover.

Now if it’s a HIGH crowd day, I’ll waste no time in picking up the soonest Space Mt. I can, and simply kill as much time as I need to ‘til it’s active. If the fastpass is a ways off, and I need to kill some time, again, I’ll do things like Monsters Inc, The People Mover or Carousel of Progress. If the fastpass is soon, no need to kill time. In either case, in this scenario, AFTER Space Mt. I start picking up rides like Buzz, Tomorrowland Speedway, or backpeddling into Fantasyland for rides like Pooh and Little Mermaid.

And at that point I’ve hit all my priorities, and it’s a good day. And it’s usually not even late afternoon yet. And I’ll just pickup whatever random fastpass I feel like from there on, for lower priority rides or things that aren’t a “MUST DO” for me, but I still find fun. (I’m a big fan of Tinker Bell, so I might pickup up a Tink meet & greet pass, and head on over to Maintstreet for Tink, A Parade, and a Chili Dog @ Casey’s) I might also go pickup a second late evening fastpass for Pirates or Haunted Mansion and ride them again, as they're two of my favorites. But by now... it's casual. No worries for me at this point in the day.

“What about Peter Pan and Minetrain!?” You may ask.

Well Peter isn’t a priority for me, truth told, as I’m an adult male, but I do ride it on occasion. Minetrain is a priority, but I usually can’t get a fastpass for it anyway, so it’s a moot point. In either case however, the answer is: You likely won’t see a fastpass for these rides available at a time that’s convenient, so you just have to hope you get lucky. If you see a pass, it’s probably worth derailing your best laid plans and grabbing it. Then course correcting from there later. With these two, you take what you can get and adjust as necessary. If all else fails, they both have better wait times late at night (after the fireworks), as lots of families with small children clear out of the park. Peter has pretty good fastpass availability late at night too TBH. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve gotten a Peter fastpass within an hour of the park closing. (Though the queue on Peter is awesome, so I honestly recommend doing Standby at least once if the wait time is 30 minutes or less)

ANYWAY… that’s my typical day at Magic Kingdom. Heck, that’s my typical Half-day at Magic Kingdom. Frankly if you get savvy enough with fastpass, you can hit all your priorities in half the time. In a full day, I just hit all my priorities, + about a dozen things I’d normally skip, haha.
 
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Gillbob - do you find taking that 5pm Space Mtn FP and then working on refreshing the time works better than just continuing to look for it at a good time?
I'm not sure if it actually "works" better, but it's certainly easier to do it that way.
 
Gillbob - do you find taking that 5pm Space Mtn FP and then working on refreshing the time works better than just continuing to look for it at a good time?


As a general thought, I think it's easier to find a good time for one specific thing, if you already have a pass at a bad time for that one specific thing. But that really only applies if I'm zeroed in on one specific thing.

For instance, I spend a lot of half-day mornings at Animal Kingdom, so while I might occasionally find afternoon fastpasses for the Pandora rides, or kilimanjaro, they really do me no good. So that said, I might book them anyway, in hopes I find a morning one. I might do this if I'm looking for like, an early morning Navi River Journey, and all I can find is late afternoon Navi River Journies, at which point I take one, and refresh it 'til I work it up to morning.

If I'm just doing a general, "lets see what looks good" browse, to see what's available... I think it's easier to not book a pass, and just do a general search.

Particularly at Epcot and Hollywood Studios, where booking an Tier 1 ride at a bad time can limit your ability to easily search for the other Tier 1 rides. (For example, I won't hold a Test Track pass for 7pm all day, if I know I'd rather find a Frozen pass for 2 in the afternoon. I'll just keep refreshing a general search 'til I find the Frozen pass. Then maybe book the Test track later.)

At Magic Kingdom I tend to leave things more loosey goosey and not bother booking one specific ride if it's a bad time. Just because I like to see everything available. With so many rides, chances are something useful will pop up with a nearby time. And god knows you want to be ready to pounce when a wild Minetrain pass appears.

But honestly that opinion might change if it's a high crowd day, and the 5pm Space Mountain could be the only Space Mountain I see for the rest of the day. THEN I'd book it. (See my last post for more details on that thought process, haha).
 
I'm glad I'm a solo or couple only traveler. Makes it much easier to get additional FP and, especially when solo, no need to worry about being glued to my phone. I totally understand people with kids not wanting to be glued to their phone.

I was wondering if easier for 2 people. My adult daughter and I are going in April. I made FP selections today and am counting on being able to get 4th, 5th , etc FPs each day.
 
I was wondering if easier for 2 people. My adult daughter and I are going in April. I made FP selections today and am counting on being able to get 4th, 5th , etc FPs each day.
Well, yeah, the fewer FP you need the easier it is to find available FP
 

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