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What are realistic expectations for a 4th FP at MK?

I love this sort of question especially when I'm bored at the office. I spent a few minutes seeing what I could get for 3 people for MK this afternoon. A couple I would have worked to move up even sooner but here's what I was able to find rather quickly.

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How long did that take you?

It looks like you have an android phone. Do you mind my asking if that’s the case? @Klayfish, @Surgie2 and @yulilin3 do you mind saying if you have android or iPhones? I’m trying to figure out why my experience is so completely different from Klayfish and JETDAD. I know there are other differences between the iPhone and android apps. I wonder if one has an advantage over the other. Or are you guys using the browser instead of the app?
 
How long did that take you?

It looks like you have an android phone. Do you mind my asking if that’s the case? @Klayfish, @Surgie2 and @yulilin3 do you mind saying if you have android or iPhones? I’m trying to figure out why my experience is so completely different from Klayfish and JETDAD. I know there are other differences between the iPhone and android apps. I wonder if one has an advantage over the other. Or are you guys using the browser instead of the app?

I left the times that I got each of those in my screenshots...they were all found between 2:50 and 3:06. This was using the Android app.
 
I've been here all week and the night before, just after midnight, there have been no FP+ available for big thunder or 7 dwarfs.

Crowds have just been huge this week. The other day, the FP line took 40 minutes to go through at Toy Story. D finitely won't be coming back at this time of year again.
 
How long did that take you?

It looks like you have an android phone. Do you mind my asking if that’s the case? @Klayfish, @Surgie2 and @yulilin3 do you mind saying if you have android or iPhones? I’m trying to figure out why my experience is so completely different from Klayfish and JETDAD. I know there are other differences between the iPhone and android apps. I wonder if one has an advantage over the other. Or are you guys using the browser instead of the app?
Android here
 


I have mixed feelings on this. Most people who say that it is "easy" to book multiple extra FPs talk about refreshing for an extended period of time. They may also be refreshing as they walk through the park. For our family, we do not want to be on our phones at all on vacation. We may refresh for one or two minutes after using our third FP, but that is it. Truly, it depends on how committed you want to be to refreshing.
 
I have mixed feelings on this. Most people who say that it is "easy" to book multiple extra FPs talk about refreshing for an extended period of time. They may also be refreshing as they walk through the park. For our family, we do not want to be on our phones at all on vacation. We may refresh for one or two minutes after using our third FP, but that is it. Truly, it depends on how committed you want to be to refreshing.
I definitely don’t refresh whilst walking through the park, but I’ll refresh during times where I’m not missing anything, waiting in line, eating lunch, waiting for a show etc. We managed to get a same day FP for FOP! So definitely worth it.
 
I thought the fourth fast pass is pretty much “junk” like barnstormer small world ect I didn’t know it still had a chance to get an E Ticket ride!
 


From the FP FAQ:
- Success at getting FPs depends primarily on two factors: the size of the group and how often one is willing to “refresh” the available FP list for that attraction. Constant refreshing, patience, and persistence can result in getting even the most difficult FPs as late as day-of.
 
We get BTM, Splash, SM and one day got a 7DMT(+many other ones). Other then during the first 60-90 minutes of the park opening we only do rides with FP. Our trip was Jan 28-Feb 5th. We are a party of 4(+ one under 3) and some rides I did have to do in groups of two.
 
The problem with those is that they have absolutely no way to account for people who are altering plans. I can tell you from tons of first hand experience that the FP+ system becomes incredibly fluid "day of" as people are adding, dropping, modifying. It changes literally second by second. One moment there may be nothing available, then the next there are 5 different time slots, and the next second 3 different ones. So those links really don't have practical value.
Agree! Just refresh, refresh,refresh! We could get about any ride we wanted. We just kept refreshing and one would pop up. We even got SDMT.
 
I left the times that I got each of those in my screenshots...they were all found between 2:50 and 3:06. This was using the Android app.

Hmmm. I guess Yulinlen having an android blows that theory. I was hoping the people who have indicated it’s not so easy all had iPhones. I wish I knew what I was doing that’s so different from you. I’ve never been able to get FPs that good that quickly. I can work at it and do ok but not SM and 7DMT that quickly even when looking for a party of 2 or 3.
 
I left the times that I got each of those in my screenshots...they were all found between 2:50 and 3:06. This was using the Android app.

And for posterity you managed to do this on a CL 9 day. I’m mystified. Some people are clearly having a much easier time snagging FP and I’ve been assuming it’s a matter of conditions (# of people, CL, length of refreshing, etc) and you’ve just convinced me it’s not. I can’t duplicate your success with the same number of people at a similar time of day, refreshing longer, under even less busy conditions.

Will you come with me on our trip and make my FPs. :D

I’m wondering if it’s not really one giant database of FPs, that maybe iits divided into smaller sub databases with each MDE account assigned to one and some have a higher number of FPs per total number of accounts? Klayfish has reported this level of ease across several trips so whatever it is iseems to be stable over time. @yulilin3, you are using the android app and not a browser, right?
 
Here's a chart from TP showing estimates of time same day FPs run out for a given crowd level.



Those charts are such nonsense. As I said, we've gotten same day FP+ for so many of these rides waaaaay past when the chart says they should be "gone". With people changing their plans constantly, new FP+ come and go continuously. I'll give you a good example. Christmas week...I don't remember the exact date, I want to say it was around Dec 29th or 30th, as I remember it was toward the end of our trip. It's the busiest week of the year. MK was incredibly busy. We got on Buzz, Splash, BTMRR. I then got Space Mountain for the kids literally 10 minutes in advance, and Pooh for DW and I. I love SM, but DW won't ride, and since we have 3 kids, I let them go on their own and take a car together while I spent time with DW...ain't I nice. :D We got off the ride first and were sitting outside waiting for the kids. I was just playing around with MDE and guess what...I got them SM again literally 5 minutes ahead. So they got off and went right back on. No, I am NOT saying this WILL happen to everyone, all the time. But we have had tremendous success like this, even in the busiest time of the year. Make no mistake, the week of Christmas to New Years was far harder than any other time we've been, but it was still possible. Summer is pretty much a breeze for anything except FoP (maybe that will change this year??).

Yes, it takes a lot of refreshing. I've said in many other posts that I am not a person to be face into my phone. Outside of WDW, I use my phone less than 99.9% of people. I don't even text, I've never sent a text in my life...seriously. Nor do I do any form of social media. However, the MDE app is just worth it to use. And, IMO, it's such a simple, mindless thing to do that it doesn't take away from family talking time. I do it while we're standing in line talking as a family, as it takes very little attention to do. In fact, my kids think it's a fun game to see what comes up, kind of like spinning a prize wheel.

I use an Android phone. I don't use WDW wifi, I use my cell data, much faster.
 
And for posterity you managed to do this on a CL 9 day. I’m mystified. Some people are clearly having a much easier time snagging FP and I’ve been assuming it’s a matter of conditions (# of people, CL, length of refreshing, etc) and you’ve just convinced me it’s not. I can’t duplicate your success with the same number of people at a similar time of day, refreshing longer, under even less busy conditions.

Will you come with me on our trip and make my FPs. :D

I’m wondering if it’s not really one giant database of FPs, that maybe iits divided into smaller sub databases with each MDE account assigned to one and some have a higher number of FPs per total number of accounts? Klayfish has reported this level of ease across several trips so whatever it is iseems to be stable over time. @yulilin3, you are using the android app and not a browser, right?
It may just have to do with how quickly someone is able to refresh in order to have as many chances as possible of happening to be the person who catches a dropped FP. For tiered parks, without needing to scroll, I figure one refresh every 1.5-2 seconds (potentially a bit longer if reception/Wi-Fi is slower). MK takes a bit more time with having to scroll but if you know what ride you're wanting you can just scroll past everything else quickly. If you see a time later in the day just grab it anyways and modify so that it's now at the top of the list and doesn't require scrolling. I believe with an iPhone you need to keep changing times which could possibly take slightly longer as you move the time bar over to get the time you want (I'm not sure how the iPhone app works/appears). With android you can just keep clicking the same time over and over...it defaults to the left side of the screen and stays in the same place so no need to move your finger or change times. Maybe that allows for quicker refreshing??
 
It may just have to do with how quickly someone is able to refresh in order to have as many chances as possible of happening to be the person who catches a dropped FP. For tiered parks, without needing to scroll, I figure one refresh every 1.5-2 seconds (potentially a bit longer if reception/Wi-Fi is slower). MK takes a bit more time with having to scroll but if you know what ride you're wanting you can just scroll past everything else quickly. If you see a time later in the day just grab it anyways and modify so that it's now at the top of the list and doesn't require scrolling. I believe with an iPhone you need to keep changing times which could possibly take slightly longer as you move the time bar over to get the time you want (I'm not sure how the iPhone app works/appears). With android you can just keep clicking the same time over and over...it defaults to the left side of the screen and stays in the same place so no need to move your finger or change times. Maybe that allows for quicker refreshing??

Yes I do all those things, grabbing a later time so the FP stays on top, switching between the two last times in the day so that I don’t have to slow down to scroll times for attractions that don’t have multiple times availability. Im at home so I can refresh faster on my own WiFi. Sometimes there’s a noticeable delay, but usually not. I would estimate it normally refreshes once a second for me as well.

I’m going to go see our database expert at work today and see what he thinks. We’ve talked about the FP system before so I know he’s at least thought about how their database might work. I’m going to try using the browser either this afternoon or tomorrow afternoon to see if that’s any different. Maybe the iPhone app has an issue or something.

Man, I hate when I get my head wrapped around a mystery like this. I can’t let it go (help me Elsa). The database guy is going to give me a hard time for being a geek. You know it’s bad when you’re a geek among Engineers. :rolleyes1
 
Those charts are such nonsense. As I said, we've gotten same day FP+ for so many of these rides waaaaay past when the chart says they should be "gone". With people changing their plans constantly, new FP+ come and go continuously. I'll give you a good example. Christmas week...I don't remember the exact date, I want to say it was around Dec 29th or 30th, as I remember it was toward the end of our trip. It's the busiest week of the year. MK was incredibly busy. We got on Buzz, Splash, BTMRR. I then got Space Mountain for the kids literally 10 minutes in advance, and Pooh for DW and I. I love SM, but DW won't ride, and since we have 3 kids, I let them go on their own and take a car together while I spent time with DW...ain't I nice. :D We got off the ride first and were sitting outside waiting for the kids. I was just playing around with MDE and guess what...I got them SM again literally 5 minutes ahead. So they got off and went right back on. No, I am NOT saying this WILL happen to everyone, all the time. But we have had tremendous success like this, even in the busiest time of the year. Make no mistake, the week of Christmas to New Years was far harder than any other time we've been, but it was still possible. Summer is pretty much a breeze for anything except FoP (maybe that will change this year??).

Yes, it takes a lot of refreshing. I've said in many other posts that I am not a person to be face into my phone. Outside of WDW, I use my phone less than 99.9% of people. I don't even text, I've never sent a text in my life...seriously. Nor do I do any form of social media. However, the MDE app is just worth it to use. And, IMO, it's such a simple, mindless thing to do that it doesn't take away from family talking time. I do it while we're standing in line talking as a family, as it takes very little attention to do. In fact, my kids think it's a fun game to see what comes up, kind of like spinning a prize wheel.

I use an Android phone. I don't use WDW wifi, I use my cell data, much faster.

They aren’t nonsense so much as completely outdated. They were very handy in the days of kiosks to understand what your chances were. A lot less volatility in those days.

These days though, I agree that these charts don’t tell people the story they need to know.
 
Yes I do all those things, grabbing a later time so the FP stays on top, switching between the two last times in the day so that I don’t have to slow down to scroll times for attractions that don’t have multiple times availability. Im at home so I can refresh faster on my own WiFi. Sometimes there’s a noticeable delay, but usually not. I would estimate it normally refreshes once a second for me as well.

I’m going to go see our database expert at work today and see what he thinks. We’ve talked about the FP system before so I know he’s at least thought about how their database might work. I’m going to try using the browser either this afternoon or tomorrow afternoon to see if that’s any different. Maybe the iPhone app has an issue or something.

Man, I hate when I get my head wrapped around a mystery like this. I can’t let it go (help me Elsa). The database guy is going to give me a hard time for being a geek. You know it’s bad when you’re a geek among Engineers. :rolleyes1

I find that using the browser also finds availability, I'm just not as fast with the browser. For me it seems to load slower and I don't like only being able to choose Morning/Afternoon/Evening (yes the browser has specific times as well but it's a drop down which takes more time). Just personal preference though.
 
We managed to use 10 fast passes yesterday! It is very possible, my strategy was to keep refreshing the app while we were walking through the line to get on a ride. Many times splash & thunder mountain came up so did buzz, Enchanted tales and princess meet and greet.
 
They aren’t nonsense so much as completely outdated. They were very handy in the days of kiosks to understand what your chances were. A lot less volatility in those days.

These days though, I agree that these charts don’t tell people the story they need to know.

Yes, true. Right after I posted that, it dawned on me that in the old paper FP+ days, that chart would have had a valuable use. But in todays FP+ world, it's completely obsolete.
 
You can definitely still get some good FP. I went the week before Christmas and got 12 additional FP, including 7DMT, PP, and 2/3 mountains. And I didn't really walk around and refresh the app, pretty much only did it while in line, taking breaks, or eating.
 

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