What’s you prediction for return to normal travel?

[randumb0]

This!!! Although, a quick google search showed me that in 2009-2010, about 57 million Americans were diagnosed with swine flu and about 13,000 died. If those numbers are pretty accurate, then why didn’t the world shut down then? We got through that with little disruption to our everyday lives, and I am optimistic that after a few weeks, our lives will slowly get back to normal.

Should we just wait and see if 57 millions are infected before doing anything?

 

[princessmommyx3]

Should we just wait and see if 57 millions are infected before doing anything?

No. My post said nothing about what I think we should or should not be doing. All I said was that after reviewing the swine flu statistics from the first year it emerged, in which the current drastic measures were not taken, I feel more optimistic considering we are being so much more proactive right now.

 

[Karin1984]

Today we had another press conference regarding our measures. We also had our idiots who went to the beach, public parks etc. this weekend. We are not in lockdown here. Overall the advice was and is: Stay home, and if you have to go outside: keep your distance, 6 feet. So we are getting extra strict measures, mayors got more authority to decide what is best for their city as the problem differs per city, police can fine people (up to $450).

Anyway, why I decided to post is I have changed my mind about my thoughts on this topic.
In the lead up to the press conference, there was a news item about how different countries are handling it and the US was a separate item. It was a sum up of everything that the US has against itself to get through the crisis successfully (all kinds of aspects from the actions from the government, political debate, central coordination/testing, health care, prison, homelessness, obesity). As it was quite a long list, I am changing my mind to that in Europe travelling will be possible this summer/late summer 2020. For the US I would say autumn / winter 2020.
The news item did end on a positive note, that the US people are agile, and can make a 180 degree switch when necessary. So that's what I am hoping for, for the US and for my own vacation to the US in August.

 

[AquaDame]

As a physician, I'm starting to get DM's and see posts from friends and friends of friends who are in larger cities and seeing urgent care patients. I'm worried. I work in a small town in a red state, and the general feeling for many people is that all of these is overblown. The vast majority of the medical professionals locally disagree, as we can imagine just how bad it could get.

As someone in a city, this is what is bugging/worrying me. A lot of people I know who live in more rural areas think we are crazy, and are mostly the ones I personally see passing around articles about how the media has blown this out of proportion/its a hoax. You just have less people... the mood even in my neighborhood is very different than if I drive through the downtown core now. We have large yards and are spread out, people can take their dogs on walks and not encounter another person. Downtown people are being suffocated - if they cant go to a park to get some fresh air then what can they do? Our governor is supposed to enact a shelter in place order soon and to half of us the need isn't apparent and to the other half, extremely necessary.

The US is so large and diverse, but we really are all in this together!

 

[lklgoodman]

Today we had another press conference regarding our measures. We also had our idiots who went to the beach, public parks etc. this weekend. We are not in lockdown here. Overall the advice was and is: Stay home, and if you have to go outside: keep your distance, 6 feet. So we are getting extra strict measures, mayors got more authority to decide what is best for their city as the problem differs per city, police can fine people (up to $450).

Anyway, why I decided to post is I have changed my mind about my thoughts on this topic.
In the lead up to the press conference, there was a news item about how different countries are handling it and the US was a separate item. It was a sum up of everything that the US has against itself to get through the crisis successfully (all kinds of aspects from the actions from the government, political debate, central coordination/testing, health care, prison, homelessness, obesity). As it was quite a long list, I am changing my mind to that in Europe travelling will be possible this summer/late summer 2020. For the US I would say autumn / winter 2020.
The news item did end on a positive note, that the US people are agile, and can make a 180 degree switch when necessary. So that's what I am hoping for, for the US and for my own vacation to the US in August.

There are still people going to beaches and parks here in the US. I live in Ohio. We've had almost everything except essential services closed for over a week now. All playgrounds will be closed later today. I'm thankful we have a big backyard that my dd can play in.( no houses behind ours, just woods) I feel bad for anyone in a huge city without easy access to an outside area. Hopefully you will be correct and this virus can be eradicated or at least somewhat contained. Prayers for all. For those with kids and sidewalks where you live. Someone posted the idea to write words or draw pics of encouragement in chalk on your driveway/sidewalk so others can see if they go for a walk.

 

[Hokie2005]

There are no good choices here. Just less awful ones.

I've read the medium article you linked to and agree there are no good choices. My personal belief is if we are shutting down society, then really shut down society similar to what China did. Do not allow people to leave their houses except for absolute necessities. Subsidize delivery services if needed and everyone can have their groceries/food/goods delivered. Legitimately shut down everything possible though and extremely restrict movement for the next month or two. When we open society back up there will most certainly still be surges of infection in certain areas. Take the next month or two while everything is shut down to get things set up to be similar to South Korea for testing AND tracking standards. We would need to be able to track where infected individuals have been and where others might have been potentially infected. If you were in any of those locations, then you immediately must be tested and if found positive are quarantined and your movements are also traced. Would Americans give up their privacy standards though to allow the government to track their locations? My guess is no, so this is probably a non-starter. So we are left with the approach of shutting everything down effectively and just slowing the spread till a vaccine is developed. On the optimistic side it is 12 months for a vaccine if the ones currently in development work and trials do not need to be repeated. Shutting the economy down till a vaccine is developed is not viable. We are going to need to figure out some middle ground to live with the virus in our communities while also minimizing loss of life for the next year or two until we have a viable vaccine.

 

[ladyofthetramp]

I've read the medium article you linked to and agree there are no good choices. My personal belief is if we are shutting down society, then really shut down society similar to what China did. Do not allow people to leave their houses except for absolute necessities. Subsidize delivery services if needed and everyone can have their groceries/food/goods delivered. Legitimately shut down everything possible though and extremely restrict movement for the next month or two. When we open society back up there will most certainly still be surges of infection in certain areas. Take the next month or two while everything is shut down to get things set up to be similar to South Korea for testing AND tracking standards. We would need to be able to track where infected individuals have been and where others might have been potentially infected. If you were in any of those locations, then you immediately must be tested and if found positive are quarantined and your movements are also traced. Would Americans give up their privacy standards though to allow the government to track their locations? My guess is no, so this is probably a non-starter. So we are left with the approach of shutting everything down effectively and just slowing the spread till a vaccine is developed. On the optimistic side it is 12 months for a vaccine if the ones currently in development work and trials do not need to be repeated. Shutting the economy down till a vaccine is developed is not viable. We are going to need to figure out some middle ground to live with the virus in our communities while also minimizing loss of life for the next year or two until we have a viable vaccine.

Great summary of probably what is going to have to happen. We will need to find the middle ground.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

It's critical to remember that if you just say, "hey, everyone, back to normal! Go to work, travel, yay!" you are still going to cripple the economy because when 20-40% or more of any given workplace's workforce ends up out sick, that really does a number on things too, while also having huge healthcare stress and cost.

Ending lockdown isn't an economic panacea.

 

[MomOTwins]

But do you realize people run temps for other reasons besides a virus?

In which case I expect Disney would expect them to provide a recent doctor's note explaining the underlying medical condition, just like people do for other things that would disqualify them on the screening form (e.g., vomiting)

It's critical to remember that if you just say, "hey, everyone, back to normal! Go to work, travel, yay!" you are still going to cripple the economy because when 20-40% or more of any given workplace's workforce ends up out sick, that really does a number on things too, while also having huge healthcare stress and cost.

Excellent point. I hadn't really thought about that, but it really is a great point, and one of the things I love about this boards--so useful to hear all the different perspectives.

 

[Numtini]

The temperature thing is "public health theater." People are contagious long before getting a fever and they knew that at the time. It's like taking off your shoes or taking away your water. It's just something for show that makes your garden grow.

 

[jlwhitney]

In which case I expect Disney would expect them to provide a recent doctor's note explaining the underlying medical condition, just like people do for other things that would disqualify them on the screening form (e.g., vomiting)

I am not sure they can do that with all the Hippa laws.

 

[ofcabbagesandkings]

Royal Caribbean and Celebrity just pushed their back in service estimate by a month, to May 11. I expect DCL will follow suit as soon as they have dealt with all of the March-April cancellations. They’ll probably just keep going month by month until it is obvious they won’t be sailing again in 2020 if ever again.

 

[The Sasquatch]

Never sailing again?? Come on!

we have had up to 70,000 people die from the flu a year in the United States alone. It averages 35,000 each and every year! And guess what....

We don’t shut down the economy or quarantine the entire country. Never in the history

There is no choice but to get people back to work and jumpstart the economy asap. If not, we have far more to worry about than Disney. It’s a sad concept to think about but history shows people will get sick from many things and people will die in the future but you cannot proactively destroy the 99% of others because you have paralyzed the economy and taken away their livelihood. Life must go on and the solution can’t be worse than the virus itself.

 

[aggiedog]

A few facts:

A person with the flu, on average, transmits it to 1.4 other people. A person with coronavirus, on average, transmits it to 3 people. Doing the math, if 1.4 people each gives it to 1.4 people, etc, taken to 10 levels of transmission, you will infect 60 people. With coronavirus, 3 people infecting 3 people, etc, 10 levels out is 59,000 people. You read that right. Plug it into a calculator. I didn't quite believe it either.

Most coronavirus infected people are asymptomatic, but can transmit the virus for up to 14 days. Flu is contagious for 3-4 days.

Flu is fatal for 0.1% of those who get it, frequently fairly quickly, in a few days. Coronavirus patients who eventually die are frequently on ventilators for 1-3 weeks. That's 1-3 weeks that someone else does not get to use that ventilator or ICU bed.

Flu fatalities occur over a stretch of many months, so that on any given day, the ICU is not filled with flu patients, which in turn means there are beds for those with other conditions.

Just doing the math from the way the numbers are rising (see my first point), NY alone is expecting 36,000 patients to be bad enough to need ventilators one month from now. There are only 3,000 ventilators in the state. I'm a physician. If that happens, people will be dying in the hallways, in the parking lots, etc. One in 7 people over the age of 70 who contract the virus will die. Find 7 of your parents and their friends, then point the finger. "Sorry, you don't get to survive." In the US, the stats seem closer to one in 5.

By isolation and correct social distancing, including closing all non-essential businesses, the rate of spread will slow. That 3 people infected drops closer to flu rates. THAT is what is important. People will still die, unfortunately. But:

1.) Fewer people will get sick all at once, so that our health care system has a chance of keeping pace. That includes manufacturing of needed supplies, medicines, ventilator parts. If we don't have enough masks, for example, in the country, more health care workers will contract Covid and be out of the equation, etc. And we avoid the people dying in the hallways, etc. And everyone that needs the ICU for other ailments will get to use it.

2.) We buy time to develop a vaccine, or treatment, so that ultimately less people die overall.

I would love it if we could just make everything back to normal. If we do, the 70,000 that died from the flu will pale in comparison to the 1-2 million that estimated will die just from coronavirus in the US. That still doesn't include all the other medical conditions that wouldn't normally be fatal, but will be without access to our usual health care system.

I have 4 offices with 40 employees, most of whom I furloughed on Monday. I'm taking no salary for at least 2 months. We're making sure every employee can get 2 weeks salary to cover their expenses while they have time to get unemployment. We are still seeing emergencies, and recent studies show that my specialty is one of 4 most likely for the doctor to contract coronavirus from their patients. I WANT normal life, badly. But you can't ignore facts.

We will have a vaccine, 12-18 months from now. At that point, hopefully sooner, life will be pre-corona normal as it can be. Cruising will happen again, in whatever companies are still standing.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Royal Caribbean and Celebrity just pushed their back in service estimate by a month, to May 11. I expect DCL will follow suit as soon as they have dealt with all of the March-April cancellations. They’ll probably just keep going month by month until it is obvious they won’t be sailing again in 2020 if ever again.

They also hard cancelled all Canada/Alaska sailings leaving before 7/1 even if the Canada call was after 7/1.

 

[Jessj0012]

I'm still holding on to hope for a trip to Disney for December 2020. If we don't go this year I don't know when we will be able to reschedule.

 

[aliciamakino]

Royal Caribbean and Celebrity just pushed their back in service estimate by a month, to May 11. I expect DCL will follow suit as soon as they have dealt with all of the March-April cancellations. They’ll probably just keep going month by month until it is obvious they won’t be sailing again in 2020 if ever again.

Funny thing is my GTY room for our May 16th sailing was assigned a stateroom number today. Kind of blew me away considering they are busy with this and next months cancellations that they would even have time to assign my stateroom. Odd.

 

[ButterbearUK]

Start of the fiscal year. October 1
I know people are going to be mad at my answer but it’s my guess and I’m sticking to it.
I hope not I haVe a cruise end of August in Alaska. I don’t see it happening but I would like to change it to the fantasy. In my honest opinion I don’t see any cruising until the new fiscal year.

I think you are on the money there. We have a trip booked to WDW in October from the UK and I am wondering whether we will make it due to international travel restrictions, but I think that domestic travel will be back online by then.

 

[randumb0]

Without a vaccine or treatment I don't see how other countries would be welcoming to cruises

 

[tidefan]

Without a vaccine or treatment I don't see how other countries would be welcoming to cruises

I think that once we get testing ramped up (now when this would be, I don't know) and you get past peak outbreak, you could establish quarantine centers (like China did) where those with symptoms and those exposed (via contact tracing) would have to serve a 14-day quarantine. However, this would only work if you could test everyone...