What’s you prediction for return to normal travel?

[justafigment27]

I don’t know. I’m kind of wondering if a late August beach vacation might be a possibility. Honestly, I’m very gun shy at this point. I just don’t see myself as willing to book a cruise or anything that’s not fully refundable up until the last minute anytime soon. I've had to break the bad news on two different cancelled vacations to my kids over the course of the last 3 weeks and I really don't have any desire to do it again … first we had to tell them that our highly anticipated DCL/WDW spring break was out, then we had to tell them that the "replacement" road trip beach vacation was out as well. I'll probably attempt to plan something fully refundable (like a beach hotel with a liberal cancellation policy) for August and not tell my kids about it until I know for sure that it's happening ... I really wish I could give them something exciting to look forward to while we are all stuck at home, but I don't want to give them false hopes or set them up for another big disappointment. Things are just too uncertain on every front. I'm looking to summer 2021 as our next real chance to take a vacation.

 

[Giraffe Lounge]

May 12th

 

[Husker Mike]

Considering that vaccines typically need 12+ months of testing before they are approved for use, I'm thinking Fall 2021.

I wish I had a more optimistic forecast (I rebooked for a Disney Cruise next spring, just in case.), but I think we need to be prepared for this to take 18 months.

 

[FigmentSpark]

But while the vaccine search is on, if they can at least find something existing today that will work on this thing, then it can be deployed and people might stop dying/being incapacitated. A scenario like that might make things go back to functioning, if not back to normal.

 

[lklgoodman]

My dh was a commercial airline pilot when 9/11 occurred. He got laid off for nearly two years. He no longer flies, but still works in the aviation industry. I'm worried lay offs will be even longer this go around. Schools have been cancelled for a week now with at least 2 more weeks to go. I'm afraid they will be cancelled for the rest of the school year. We have great teachers, but being stuck at home trying to figure out how to do 6 grade math is my nightmare!
Any school teachers(especially middle school)on here God bless you!!!

 

[Numtini]

April 2021 or never. A year from now we'll know if there's going to be a recurrence and how bad. If it stays bad and really has the longevity on a surface, cruising is in a lot of trouble. Our maybe it disappears and becomes just another seasonal irritation.

 

[Husker Mike]

Never is not an option. Scientists will find a solution at some point. We just need to get there...and that may mean that this is the new normal in the short term.

 

[k3chantal]

lol, are you ever going to go to Disney world again? Go to a sporting event or any large event? You’re around people everywhere you go. I’m not going to just shut myself in for the rest of my life.

Think about how many people touch things on the shelves at Walmart every day and put them back then you touch it. I bet you have no issue going to grocery stores though

My next cruise is Summer 2021. I do not have any plans on canceling, mainly cause I have plenty of time right now to do just that. But I agree. Travel will happen again and I predict some great deals will present themselves for those of us who are willing to take some risks and book.

 

[brewcrew]

Never is not an option. Scientists will find a solution at some point. We just need to get there...and that may mean that this is the new normal in the short term.

As an example of how science will find a solution, at the beginning of the outbreak, I believe it was taking around 7-10 days to get results back from a coronavirus test. A couple of days ago, I heard that test results were coming back in 48 hours. Next week, a new test is being released that takes 45 minutes to get the results.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...s-first-rapid-point-of-care-test-coronavirus/

 

[mkb3]

But while the vaccine search is on, if they can at least find something existing today that will work on this thing, then it can be deployed and people might stop dying/being incapacitated. A scenario like that might make things go back to functioning, if not back to normal.

This is what I think happens too!!

 

[otten]

I think it's impossible to know at this point. When we left on our WBPC cruise a little over two weeks ago it was pretty much business as usual. There were 8 cases in our city, all related to travel or known direct contact with a confirmed case. When we got back to land the number of cases was over 400.

How soon things return to 'normal' is going to depend in large part on how much people comply with the directives from health authorities and governments. One study has reported that as many as 40% of people in Lombardy are not fully complying with lockdown orders and look what is happening there.

 

[Heather07438]

A wild guess- Air travel resumes with temperature screenings over the summer but gets somewhat locked down again next winter.

 

[smmco]

Considering that vaccines typically need 12+ months of testing before they are approved for use, I'm thinking Fall 2021.

I wish I had a more optimistic forecast (I rebooked for a Disney Cruise next spring, just in case.), but I think we need to be prepared for this to take 18 months.

You really think the world is going to shut down for 18 months and we will still have jobs? I work in healthcare and were at about 30% capacity. I won't even be getting my hours.

 

[Hokie2005]

You really think the world is going to shut down for 18 months and we will still have jobs? I work in healthcare and were at about 30% capacity. I won't even be getting my hours.

Exactly what I have been asking lately. What is our current endgame? Are we really waiting till a vaccine to return to normal? Even if we assume vaccines work that are just starting trials that is a year at best but more than likely longer. If they don't work, then we are talking a much longer timeline. As has been stated by many, the majority of individuals will no longer have jobs plain and simple if this global shutdown of the economy goes on that long. So lets hope that the measures in place slow it enough to perhaps buy time for treatments to be developed and proven effective in the next month or two. Once we have treatments and can ensure we do not overload the healthcare system, I see no reason we don't open the economy back up for the most part. If you are a part of the high risk population, then certainly you might want to consider continuing to shelter in place until a vaccine is developed or we have some sort of herd immunity. There are many delivery services these days where you don't need to leave your house for anything. If I were high risk, I would absolutely not be leaving my house if life longevity was my #1 mission. Yet as my grandma says, maybe when I get to be 90+ I'll feel differently about sheltering in place during all of this.

 

[smmco]

Exactly what I have been asking lately. What is our current endgame? Are we really waiting till a vaccine to return to normal? Even if we assume vaccines work that are just starting trials that is a year at best but more than likely longer. If they don't work, then we are talking a much longer timeline. As has been stated by many, the majority of individuals will no longer have jobs plain and simple if this global shutdown of the economy goes on that long. So lets hope that the measures in place slow it enough to perhaps buy time for treatments to be developed and proven effective in the next month or two. Once we have treatments and can ensure we do not overload the healthcare system, I see no reason we don't open the economy back up for the most part. If you are a part of the high risk population, then certainly you might want to consider continuing to shelter in place until a vaccine is developed or we have some sort of herd immunity. There are many delivery services these days where you don't need to leave your house for anything. If I were high risk, I would absolutely not be leaving my house if life longevity was my #1 mission. Yet as my grandma says, maybe when I get to be 90+ I'll feel differently about sheltering in place during all of this.

I don't think the virus is lethal enough to destroy the whole economy and life as we know it. They are not going to keep things shut down until the virus is gone. They are just trying to flatten the curve and avoid a big surge on our healthcare system. The swine flu was around for a year. We had 500,000 deaths and we didn't do any of this.

 

[monkeydawn]

Normal as we knew it is gone I would think. I'd say this is something that's going to affect travel from now on. We will find a new normal, as we did after 9/11 and other touchstone events but it wont be what we called normal a month ago.

Well people with respiratory viral infections are often infectious during the asymptomatic period. So temp scanning is a false sense of security.

Also people can artificialy lower their temp with OTC drugs. There will be those that do that because they are sure its not COVID and they have a lot of money/ time/ expectations in their trip and dont want it ruined. Heard plenty

 

[aggiedog]

Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance
What the Next 18 Months Can Look Like, if Leaders Buy Us Time

medium.com

Here's an interesting article on different outcomes based on different coronavirus strategies.

I have the same discussion with my DH, who is all for just letting everyone die that's going to die. As a physician, I disagree. Not only because I'm in the job to keep people healthy and alive, but because there will be wider ramifications. Because it won't just be coronavirus victims. It will also be almost anyone else that needed timely emergency care (heart attacks, strokes, trauma), ICU beds (the list is too long to begin), and even those who just need supportive care and may not get it because resources are limited. Those medical care workers who are overworked and under supplied will, guaranteed, also get sick, and some will die. It takes almost a decade to train up new doctors and get them at least enough experience to be really good. Nurses, slightly less time. I've heard stats anywhere from 14-19% fatality for age 70 and older. That is a HUGE chunk of the population that would disappear, assuming that most older people will eventually be exposed to the virus. We could have 10's of millions of younger adults that survive, but with pulmonary fibrosis, needing medical care and possibly unable to work. What will that do to our economy?

So we have a huge recession/depression. But our health care system survives more or less intact and our population is overall healthier with less long term problems. And we've had time to develop a vaccine or treatment that controls the virus.

There are no good choices here. Just less awful ones.

*****
I posted this on the ABD forum. Lots of international travel discussion going on there also. As a physician, I'm starting to get DM's and see posts from friends and friends of friends who are in larger cities and seeing urgent care patients. I'm worried. I work in a small town in a red state, and the general feeling for many people is that all of these is overblown. The vast majority of the medical professionals locally disagree, as we can imagine just how bad it could get. And I just read an article in the NYT's saying that Asia is experiencing a surge in infections as they relax restrictions. Some from people returning to the area, but others are community spread again as people go out and about. Nothing like Italy currently, but without more restrictions, it could easily get that bad.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

I was reading an interview with a state epidemiologist and he says one of the issues here is no end game or real goal. Everyone is playing checkers, and at a fairly basic level, versus being chessmasters who are planning 12 moves out.

 

[princessmommyx3]

We had 500,000 deaths and we didn't do any of this.

This!!! Although, a quick google search showed me that in 2009-2010, about 57 million Americans were diagnosed with swine flu and about 13,000 died. If those numbers are pretty accurate, then why didn’t the world shut down then? We got through that with little disruption to our everyday lives, and I am optimistic that after a few weeks, our lives will slowly get back to normal.

 

[jlwhitney]

Wouldn’t be surprised to see Temperature scanning stick around for cruises and even at airports after this. I actually would fully support that new normal since we can’t count on people to do the right thing and not travel when they’re sick.

But do you realize people run temps for other reasons besides a virus?