VGF Direct Contracts Sold

[KAT4DISNEY]

BLT was launched in a recession and has a lot more points than VGF2 has. Also there are a lot more members now than pre BLT. Now we have all the BLT, VGF1, PVB, CCV, RIV, VGC and AUL members. I’m not saying it’s going to sell out in 70 days, but it is not going to be 3 years. BLT has 5.7 million points. VGF2 is 1.8 million that is about 1/3 the size. So if they sell at BLT pace it is 1 year, if it sells faster, it seems they will, they will be gone in less than a year.

Nowhere did I state that you predicted it would take 3 years to sell out. I pointed out that VGF2 is 1/3 the size of BLT and will most likely sell out in less than a year.

Ok.

 

[Slakk]

I just did a 175 point add on. My guide said VGF is selling briskly and most of his deals are VGF vs Riviera

 

[sndral]

I just did a 175 point add on. My guide said VGF is selling briskly and most of his deals are VGF vs Riviera

Interesting since non members can’t even buy VGF yet.

 

[Sandisw]

I just did a 175 point add on. My guide said VGF is selling briskly and most of his deals are VGF vs Riviera

Except that only owners can buy VGF so you have a lot taking advantage of the members only incentives, which does make sense as to why they may be seeing more VGF. I can't wait to see the data when new buyers have the choice.

Will we see it take away from RIV in a meaningful way? Or, will DVD simply have a better total month of sales with more people choosing to add on or buy VGF, leaving RIV stagnant?

 

[Paul Stupin]

Except that only owners can buy VGF so you have a lot taking advantage of the members only incentives, which does make sense as to why they may be seeing more VGF. I can't wait to see the data when new buyers have the choice.

Will we see it take away from RIV in a meaningful way? Or, will DVD simply have a better total month of sales with more people choosing to add on or buy VGF, leaving RIV stagnant?

If VGF2 sells out quickly, I think we’ll see the direct price shoot up substantially, and we’ll all be glad we bought when we did.

 

[Sandisw]

If VGF2 sells out quickly, I think we’ll see the direct price shoot up substantially, and we’ll all be glad we bought when we did.

I don't think it is going to sell as fast as people think it is going to sell out. My guess is 150K of points for March, and then it will slow down from there. I think we know many current owners are willing to take a shorter contract to avoid the resale restrictions.

Not sure new buyers will be as swayed now that they have two good choices. My prediction is that the RIV sales go down slightly (may see that 70K number again), but that overall DVD sales increase with the VGF numbers to keep the total solidly over 100K.

I see VGF taking 18 to 24 months to go to sell out status...But, of course, nothing more than a guess!!!

 

[Paul Stupin]

I don't think it is going to sell as fast as people think it is going to sell out. My guess is 150K of points for March, and then it will slow down from there. I think we know many current owners are willing to take a shorter contract to avoid the resale restrictions.

Not sure new buyers will be as swayed now that they have two good choices. My prediction is that the RIV sales go down slightly (may see that 70K number again), but that overall DVD sales increase with the VGF numbers to keep the total solidly over 100K.

I see VGF taking 18 to 24 months to go to sell out status...But, of course, nothing more than a guess!!!

All good points! But 2 years, at least in my mind, is still pretty fast. Time will tell!

 

[Sandisw]

All good points! But 2 years, at least in my mind, is still pretty fast. Time will tell!

I have seen people say things like it will sell out by summer...so that was more what I was referring to as not as fast. But I agree, selling in about 2 years would be considered a pretty fast target and something I imagine DVD will be very happy with.

Between this and RIV, they have a good number of points to keep active sales alive at WDW until the Poly tower goes for sale!

 

[wdrl]

I have seen people say things like it will sell out by summer...so that was more what I was referring to as not as fast. But I agree, selling in about 2 years would be considered a pretty fast target and something I imagine DVD will be very happy with.

VGF2's Unit 11 has roughly 889,000 to 890,000 points assigned to it. Since Unit 11 is exactly half of VGF2, the Big Pine Key building is adding roughly 1,778,000 to 1,780,000 points to the VGF condo association.

To sell out in two years, the VGF resort's sales would have to average less than 73,000 points a month for Disney to sell the 98% that can be sold to the general public. That should be fairly easily achieved.

To put it in perspective, Riviera has averaged 73,548 points a month over the last 12 months. In the 12 months before the onset of the pandemic and Disney shutting down the U.S. parks, Riviera was averaging 114,399 points a month. Back in 2013, VGF averaged 108,013 points a month in its first 12 months of sales.

 

[Sandisw]

VGF2's Unit 11 has roughly 889,000 to 890,000 points assigned to it. Since Unit 11 is exactly half of VGF2, the Big Pine Key building is adding roughly 1,778,000 to 1,780,000 points to the VGF condo association.

To sell out in two years, the VGF resort's sales would have to average less than 73,000 points a month for Disney to sell the 98% that can be sold to the general public. That should be fairly easily achieved.

To put it in perspective, Riviera has averaged 73,548 points a month over the last 12 months. In the 12 months before the onset of the pandemic and Disney shutting down the U.S. parks, Riviera was averaging 114,399 points a month. Back in 2013, VGF averaged 108,013 points a month in its first 12 months of sales.

But, to achieve over 70K for VGF alone each month , it would mean no one is buying RIV any longer even close to what it is selling now, which I just don’t see happening.

I do think we will see some sales by new buyers go from RIV to VGF, but not to the same degree that we see current owners choosing to add on to VGF.

I guess we will have a better idea in a few months where new buyers choose.

 

[wdrl]

But, to achieve over 70K for VGF alone each month , it would mean no one is buying RIV any longer even close to what it is selling now, which I just don’t see happening.

You make a good point, assuming that overall sales remain static. If overall WDW direct sales remain at its current 12-month average of about 122,000 points a month, then VGF2 will be cannibalizing Riviera's sales, or vice versa, and neither will come close to 70,000 points a month.

However, I favor the assumption that VGF2 will have an additive effect on overall sales. Recent history has shown that when Disney introduced a second WDW resort while another WDW resort's sales were still ongoing, there was a boost in overall sales for several months.

Of course, the pandemic has changed the way the game is played. What occurred with regularity and certainty before the 2020 pandemic may not hold true here in 2022. My assumption that a boost in overall sales may not materialize. But, either way, we'll see how it plays out.

By the way, as we all know a resort is considered to be "sold out" whenever Disney decides it is "sold out." The resort could have 10% or more of its points still unsold and Disney could say that it's no longer marketing the resort.

 

[BeachClub2014]

Of course, the pandemic has changed the way the game is played. What occurred with regularity and certainty before the 2020 pandemic may not hold true here in 2022. My assumption that a boost in overall sales may not materialize. But, either way, we'll see how it plays out.

The pandemic certainly had an impact and as we are slowly entering into what we all hope to be the post-pandemic world, there is high (and rising) inflation, an unstable stock market, rising interest rates, and a war. Hate to sound like a dooms-dayer, but I think all of these things may contribute to depressing overall sales. We will soon see.

 

[Slakk]

Except that only owners can buy VGF so you have a lot taking advantage of the members only incentives, which does make sense as to why they may be seeing more VGF. I can't wait to see the data when new buyers have the choice.

Will we see it take away from RIV in a meaningful way? Or, will DVD simply have a better total month of sales with more people choosing to add on or buy VGF, leaving RIV stagnant?

It will be interesting for sure. I do think that allowing VGF to stay as one resort is a bonus. It was enticing enough for me to finally follow buy where you want to stay after 15+ years of being happy using the 7 month option. But again to be fair we are at a time where we will be doing resort only / Disney Springs trips vs the parks.

 

[Paul Stupin]

It will be interesting for sure. I do think that allowing VGF to stay as one resort is a bonus. It was enticing enough for me to finally follow buy where you want to stay after 15+ years of being happy using the 7 month option. But again to be fair we are at a time where we will be doing resort only / Disney Springs trips vs the parks.

I think VGF2 will be the last chance to buy a new DVC offering without resale restrictions, which in my opinion makes it an amazingly good buy with current incentives. And I do think there’s a really good chance it will sell out sooner than the current somewhat conservative two year estimate. I’m still thinking Poly2 will have resale restrictions, along with DLT. Both will have folks lining up to buy who won’t care, myself (for Poly2) included!

 

[perchy]

I am back on this fence.

Even at 50 points, $207 could be a good deal, right?

I have 0 direct points and need to work my way in. I am thinking even as SAP….

 

[Sandisw]

I am back on this fence.

Even at 50 points, $207 could be a good deal, right?

I have 0 direct points and need to work my way in. I am thinking even as SAP….

I think it’s a great deal for having unrestricted points and no restrictions for those that have an issue with them.

Plus, small contracts are not easy to find so you probably are not even paying much more for them.

 

[ZerasPride]

I am back on this fence.

Even at 50 points, $207 could be a good deal, right?

I have 0 direct points and need to work my way in. I am thinking even as SAP….

I consider my 80 point purchase a "good deal" even though it did not qualify for any additional incentives. I am happy with the price I paid and I do consider these points to be SAP as well.

 

[RoseGold]

By the way, as we all know a resort is considered to be "sold out" whenever Disney decides it is "sold out." The resort could have 10% or more of its points still unsold and Disney could say that it's no longer marketing the resort.

We'll know when it's half sold when they do the next declaration.

 

[DLR70]

Are there any updates on how fast this is selling out? I want to add 75 points but my use year is Dec, so there's no rush. But, I don't want to miss out if it sells out. I was hoping to wait another month or two.

Dec points for VGF2 wouldn't get added until Dec 2022, right?

 

[Sandisw]

Are there any updates on how fast this is selling out? I want to add 75 points but my use year is Dec, so there's no rush. But, I don't want to miss out if it sells out. I was hoping to wait another month or two.

Dec points for VGF2 wouldn't get added until Dec 2022, right?

They new numbers for April should be out in the next week or so. Www.DVCnews.com always posts an article on it.

And yes, you don’t get Dec UY points until the 2022 UY. Will pay only one month of dues.

Use your Disney Visa..if you have one.. and don’t have to pay it off for 6 months. That’s what we did!