ehh
I'm not all there myself
- Joined
- Aug 3, 2019
November 2024 inventory at VGC still shows signs of an active refurb. I bet the refurb starts in October 2024 and completes in 2025.
VDH Unit and Sales Tracker
- Thread starter ehh
- Start date
UrsulaWantsYourSoul
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Jun 23, 2020
omg the VDH 1 bedrooms are SO nice! When we saw one on the tour I was like... I could live here. Staying in one for our next trip - Can't wait - 17 more days!. Yeah with Grand Cal, it's about the location/access to DCA and that amazing lobby. Will the hard refurb make me love the rooms more than VDH.... I doubt it. haha. But I'd love to be wrong! DVC hasn't exactly been thrilling us with refurbs.Our last trip we met up with some friends staying at VGC while we were at VDH. They said our 1 BR suite made their VGC room look like Motel 6
Littlelulu01
Mouseketeer
- Joined
- Mar 3, 2014
I purchased the 25 point contract. I’ve had the same guide for years and was told this was a one and only, one of a kind exception for an add on to another Disneyland hotel villas contract I had purchased.
HIRyeDVC
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Apr 17, 2021
As always, thanks for tracking this.
I am trying to figure out, what is the hard # of points they have declared? The only declaration I can sort of find evidence from DVC News was the initial one of 575k. I assume based on your percentages a second declaration occurred early in the sales.
I'm sort of trying to strategize two booking windows right now... don't want to give up a waitlist at VDH as it feels like another declaration is semi imminent.
ehh
I'm not all there myself
- Joined
- Aug 3, 2019
From what I've been able to see on OCRW, there have been two declarations, both very early, for a combined 728k.
However, DVC typically forecasts declarations with the inventory they make available at 11 months. Said another way, the inventory available to book 11m from today is (much) greater than 728k worth of points because they have forecasted/planned more declarations between today and the future.
The impact this will have on your waitlist is that when more rooms are declared it's unlikely to mean a mass fulfillment of waitlists or mass availability. Instead, it will be mostly or entirely invisible and no new inventory will be made available for booking.
ehh
I'm not all there myself
- Joined
- Aug 3, 2019
Monthly update!
Total points recorded as of December 31st: ~567k points (17.4% of all points).
Points recorded in November: ~16.7k points.
Welp, that was a bad month! Roughly half the 2nd lowest month all time.
At the current rate, VDH will sell out in a whopping 161 months, roughly mid 2037!
Despite this, DVC hasn't ramped up incentives at all, despite the opportunity to include VDH in the recent RIV incentive boost. As I've detailed in the past, there is a potential rationale for keeping this sluggish sales pace: they already booked the rooms on cash and can't add inventory via declarations before 2024.
Currently ~22.3% of points are declared and at least ~17.5% of the resort has been sold. That leaves less than 5% of headroom, roughly 160k points, before more Units must be declared.
My thinking here could be completely unfounded, but considering they started renting rooms on cash prior to any sales starting, they may have heavily relied on their sales forecasts to determine how much inventory they could rent. That forecast is in the POS and it's the current level of declarations, 'just' 22.3% of points.
I think initial sales were faster than they expected and they've needed to pump the brakes a bit and are perfectly happy at this sales pace until 2024, which had a much later release of cash rooms. Maybe over the next few months we'll be able to assess why they had such low sales to close out 2024.
Last month I also mentioned the Trust theory: they're happy to sell a trickle of points now without big incentives, in anticipation of including as much VDH as possible in the Trust.
As a reminder, I'm just doing ad hoc and monthly updates now.
One glimmer of hope for sales being impacted by holidays: ~4,200 points were recorded on 1/2/24 alone.
Fun facts about December's sales:
Nothing remarkable about mega-contracts, just one 500pt contract at the top of the pile.
Unit 2B was the top seller for the first time, roughly 50% of all sales this month. Unit 1E was a close 2nd at 38%.
It doesn't look like any potential Favorite Weeks were sold in December.
It is likely that a bunch of Units are now sold out: 1B, 1C, 1D, 1F, 1G, 1H, and maybe 1J. We still haven't seen 1A show up in any recorded deeds yet. I'm also not sure how many Units are in Phase 2, but we've only seen Unit 2A and Unit 2B from Phase 2 so far, but I suspect there's at least 2C, possibly also 2D.
Other interesting facts about the contracts recorded in November:
"U" unit stands for "Unknown". This is because OCRW recorded a Unit number with an error and no 'most likely' correct fix. This is most likely due to issues with OCR (optical character recognition) used in their recording process.
Points recorded by month:
Total points recorded as of December 31st: ~567k points (17.4% of all points).
Points recorded in November: ~16.7k points.
Welp, that was a bad month! Roughly half the 2nd lowest month all time.
At the current rate, VDH will sell out in a whopping 161 months, roughly mid 2037!
Despite this, DVC hasn't ramped up incentives at all, despite the opportunity to include VDH in the recent RIV incentive boost. As I've detailed in the past, there is a potential rationale for keeping this sluggish sales pace: they already booked the rooms on cash and can't add inventory via declarations before 2024.
Currently ~22.3% of points are declared and at least ~17.5% of the resort has been sold. That leaves less than 5% of headroom, roughly 160k points, before more Units must be declared.
My thinking here could be completely unfounded, but considering they started renting rooms on cash prior to any sales starting, they may have heavily relied on their sales forecasts to determine how much inventory they could rent. That forecast is in the POS and it's the current level of declarations, 'just' 22.3% of points.
I think initial sales were faster than they expected and they've needed to pump the brakes a bit and are perfectly happy at this sales pace until 2024, which had a much later release of cash rooms. Maybe over the next few months we'll be able to assess why they had such low sales to close out 2024.
Last month I also mentioned the Trust theory: they're happy to sell a trickle of points now without big incentives, in anticipation of including as much VDH as possible in the Trust.
As a reminder, I'm just doing ad hoc and monthly updates now.
One glimmer of hope for sales being impacted by holidays: ~4,200 points were recorded on 1/2/24 alone.
Fun facts about December's sales:
Nothing remarkable about mega-contracts, just one 500pt contract at the top of the pile.
Unit 2B was the top seller for the first time, roughly 50% of all sales this month. Unit 1E was a close 2nd at 38%.
It doesn't look like any potential Favorite Weeks were sold in December.
It is likely that a bunch of Units are now sold out: 1B, 1C, 1D, 1F, 1G, 1H, and maybe 1J. We still haven't seen 1A show up in any recorded deeds yet. I'm also not sure how many Units are in Phase 2, but we've only seen Unit 2A and Unit 2B from Phase 2 so far, but I suspect there's at least 2C, possibly also 2D.
Other interesting facts about the contracts recorded in November:
- 108 contracts recorded (fewest ever)
- 43x 150pt contracts (71 the prior month)
- 17x 200pt contracts (30 the prior month)
- 15x 50pt contracts (18 the prior month)
- 11x 100pt contracts (22 the prior month)
- 7x 250pt contracts (18 the prior month)
- 4x 300pt contracts (8 the prior month)
- 11x other contracts (23 the prior month)
- 154.7pt average contract size in December
- May had an average of 128.2pt
- June had an average of 142.8pt
- July had an average of 157.2pt
- August had an average of 152.7pt
- September had an average of 149.8pt
- October had an average of 165.1pt
- November had an average of 164.8pt
- 500pt is largest contract in November
- 50pt is smallest contract
- 300pt is the largest contract size purchased multiple times (4x)
- Unit 2B was assigned the most (8.5k, 2nd most was 1E at 6.3k)
"U" unit stands for "Unknown". This is because OCRW recorded a Unit number with an error and no 'most likely' correct fix. This is most likely due to issues with OCR (optical character recognition) used in their recording process.
Points recorded by month:
NorCalFanatic
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Apr 19, 2023
Sales reps in casual conversations in the lounge and lobby subtly pushing “adding on” before the price increases during our recent trip.
MartyParty
Mouseketeer
- Joined
- Jan 13, 2023
For what it’s worth, I spoke to our guide (based in California) a couple of months ago, and he said management was pleased this first year with the pace of sales. Was positive.
ehh
I'm not all there myself
- Joined
- Aug 3, 2019
HyperspaceMountainPilot
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Dec 23, 2019
UrsulaWantsYourSoul
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Jun 23, 2020
Once they jack up the price they can offer "amazing incentives" .
.
ehh
I'm not all there myself
- Joined
- Aug 3, 2019
Monthly update!
Total points recorded as of January 31st: ~595k points (18.3% of all points).
Points recorded in January: ~27.3k points.
Not as bad as December (16.7k), but 27.3k is still lower than the pre-December low (31.3k).
At the current rate, VDH will sell out in a whopping 97 months, roughly early 2032!
Despite this, DVC hasn't ramped up incentives at all and prices even went up on Feb 1. I speculated that the reason they didn't ramp up incentives in 2023 was due to avoiding over-selling compared to forecast. But now we're in 2024 and post-incentive prices has only gone up, indicating to me they're just fine with this sales pace.
As of January 31st, ~22.3% of points are declared and at least ~18.3% of the resort has been sold. That leaves less than 4% of headroom, roughly 130k points, before more Units must be declared.
Also of note, OCRW made sales monitoring a tad more difficult with a recent change. Previously, OCRW would publish the Lot Number, the Transfer Tax Amount, and the Unit #. Now they just post Transfer Tax and Unit #, making it harder to differentiate VGC sales from VDH. Yes, DVC has been selling a trickle of VGC this entire time.
Also on the horizon is the new, increased, base price for VDH. This will change the Transfer Tax Amount for any given contract, but it may be hard to determine how many points are in a contract while there's a mix of both $239 and $230 base price contracts being recorded.
Base price change and OCRW changes mean the accuracy of this reporting will be reduced slightly, but I'll do my best to filter as well as possible.
As a reminder, I'm just doing ad hoc and monthly updates now.
Fun facts about January's sales:
Nothing particularly remarkable about mega-contracts, but there was one 653pt contract and another 600pt.
The 653pt is very likely a fixed week 2BR in Season 7 (Spring Break or Christmas/NYE). This is the 2nd 653pt contract recorded, the other came in June 2023. There was also a 222/223pt contract, likely a fixed week Standard View Deluxe Studio for Season 7.
Unit 2B was the top seller again, roughly two thirds of all sales this month. Unit 1E was a distant 2nd at 12%. Curiously, there was a burst of 1B contracts being recorded. 1B was last recorded in September.
It is likely that a bunch of Units are now sold out: 1B, 1C, 1D, 1F, 1G, 1H, and maybe 1J. We still haven't seen 1A show up in any recorded deeds yet. I'm also not sure how many Units are in Phase 2, but we've only seen Unit 2A and Unit 2B from Phase 2 so far, but I suspect there's at least 2C, possibly also 2D.
Other interesting facts about the contracts recorded in November:
"U" unit stands for "Unknown". This is because OCRW recorded a Unit number with an error and no 'most likely' correct fix. This is most likely due to issues with OCR (optical character recognition) used in their recording process.
Points recorded by month:
Total points recorded as of January 31st: ~595k points (18.3% of all points).
Points recorded in January: ~27.3k points.
Not as bad as December (16.7k), but 27.3k is still lower than the pre-December low (31.3k).
At the current rate, VDH will sell out in a whopping 97 months, roughly early 2032!
Despite this, DVC hasn't ramped up incentives at all and prices even went up on Feb 1. I speculated that the reason they didn't ramp up incentives in 2023 was due to avoiding over-selling compared to forecast. But now we're in 2024 and post-incentive prices has only gone up, indicating to me they're just fine with this sales pace.
As of January 31st, ~22.3% of points are declared and at least ~18.3% of the resort has been sold. That leaves less than 4% of headroom, roughly 130k points, before more Units must be declared.
Also of note, OCRW made sales monitoring a tad more difficult with a recent change. Previously, OCRW would publish the Lot Number, the Transfer Tax Amount, and the Unit #. Now they just post Transfer Tax and Unit #, making it harder to differentiate VGC sales from VDH. Yes, DVC has been selling a trickle of VGC this entire time.
Also on the horizon is the new, increased, base price for VDH. This will change the Transfer Tax Amount for any given contract, but it may be hard to determine how many points are in a contract while there's a mix of both $239 and $230 base price contracts being recorded.
Base price change and OCRW changes mean the accuracy of this reporting will be reduced slightly, but I'll do my best to filter as well as possible.
As a reminder, I'm just doing ad hoc and monthly updates now.
Fun facts about January's sales:
Nothing particularly remarkable about mega-contracts, but there was one 653pt contract and another 600pt.
The 653pt is very likely a fixed week 2BR in Season 7 (Spring Break or Christmas/NYE). This is the 2nd 653pt contract recorded, the other came in June 2023. There was also a 222/223pt contract, likely a fixed week Standard View Deluxe Studio for Season 7.
Unit 2B was the top seller again, roughly two thirds of all sales this month. Unit 1E was a distant 2nd at 12%. Curiously, there was a burst of 1B contracts being recorded. 1B was last recorded in September.
It is likely that a bunch of Units are now sold out: 1B, 1C, 1D, 1F, 1G, 1H, and maybe 1J. We still haven't seen 1A show up in any recorded deeds yet. I'm also not sure how many Units are in Phase 2, but we've only seen Unit 2A and Unit 2B from Phase 2 so far, but I suspect there's at least 2C, possibly also 2D.
Other interesting facts about the contracts recorded in November:
- 168 contracts recorded
- 79x 150pt contracts (43 the prior month)
- 19x 50pt contracts (14 the prior month)
- 16x 200pt contracts (17 the prior month)
- 11x 100pt contracts (11 the prior month)
- 10x 250pt contracts (7 the prior month)
- 9x 300pt contracts (4 the prior month)
- 24x other contracts (11 the prior month)
- 162.6pt average contract size in January
- May had an average of 128.2pt
- June had an average of 142.8pt
- July had an average of 157.2pt
- August had an average of 152.7pt
- September had an average of 149.8pt
- October had an average of 165.1pt
- November had an average of 164.8pt
- December had an average of 154.7pt
- 653pt is largest contract in January
- 50pt is smallest contract
- 400pt is the largest contract size purchased multiple times (4x)
- Unit 2B was assigned the most (18.5k, 2nd most was 1E at 3.3k)
"U" unit stands for "Unknown". This is because OCRW recorded a Unit number with an error and no 'most likely' correct fix. This is most likely due to issues with OCR (optical character recognition) used in their recording process.
Points recorded by month:
HIRyeDVC
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Apr 17, 2021
FFMickey
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Dec 23, 2013
Probably they have already rented out those units for the near future. They might be waiting for those to complete before being able to declare more inventory. Once units are declared, they can't pull rooms back and forth between DVC inventory and CRO availability. I believe @ehh suggested this earlier.
skier_pete
DIsney-holics Anon
- Joined
- Aug 17, 2006
Few, that is an exhaustive survey.
I wonder what Disney thinks about these sales rates. I can't image they are thrilled, I'm sure they were expecting it to sell faster for longer. On the other hand, it will probably look good compared to the Cabin sales rate in six months!
I wonder what Disney thinks about these sales rates. I can't image they are thrilled, I'm sure they were expecting it to sell faster for longer. On the other hand, it will probably look good compared to the Cabin sales rate in six months!
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