VDH Opening

[MartyParty]

Remember when VGC direct first sold below $100pp? If this project comes into fruition, sky is the limit

I 100% remember me and my wife back in 2010 saying “nah” we’re cheap and cheerful hotel people. We’d always stay and pay for a Disney close budget hotel.

 

[elenex]

Remember when VGC direct first sold below $100pp? If this project comes into fruition, sky is the limit

The math on those initial contracts is mind boggling. At 50 years, $2pp/year plus dues... Less than VDH's dues+tot alone.

 

[Cfabar1]

Can someone explain to me why since VDH opened the VGC have just soared in value? What makes VDH so much less appealing? The Transient Tax/dues?

 

[Royal Consort]

Can someone explain to me why since VDH opened the VGC have just soared in value? What makes VDH so much less appealing? The Transient Tax/dues?

1. Grand Californian is the flagship and carries a premium as a result. Disneyland Hotel is a less premium resort.

2. The Transient tax put off a lot of prospective purchasers who pivoted to VGC as a result. The high upfront cost of VGC is offset by lower taxes built into the dues. The VDH tax is substantial and will continue to increase making it burdensome over time.

3. Lack of studio balconies. The product is just not as good compared with any other DVC resort.

4. Views. VDH was placed on a plot of land that was unused because it overlooks the power poles and suburbia. Kudos to Disney for finding a commercial use for this land.

I had savings put aside for VDH a couple of years ago. It was my "dream" DVC contract. Before I bought in, I said to guides that if they built DVC at DLH that would be an instant yes, sign me up.

So why did I add on to VGC 3 years ago on resale? The plans were released demonstrating the views over suburbia and there were no studio balconies. Deal breaker. I sit on the balcony each day with my morning coffee thinking "I'm on vacation and won't go into the clinic today - this is awesome". Then the Transient tax stuff came out, and I can tell you this only cemented my decision. I've become a Grand Cal convert I'm afraid. It's a pity because I genuinely wanted to like VDH.

 

[elenex]

Can someone explain to me why since VDH opened the VGC have just soared in value? What makes VDH so much less appealing? The Transient Tax/dues?

Mainly the transient tax, and to a lesser degree the divisive theming. Values were actually at a low prior to the ToT announcements, with contracts selling in the $225-250 range. Immediately following that announcement, basically every VGC contract on the market sold within a couple days so supply hit near zero with an increased demand... So prices jumped nearly $100pp. It'll come back to earth and kind of already has, but my thought is it won't dip much before 275pp or so. When I ran the numbers I think VGC at close to $400pp was about equal value in terms of % off rack rates to VDH at $230pp when factoring in dues difference, transient tax, and the current seasonal calendar/points chart at each hotel.

Edit: I'm another pivoter. Planned on adding VDH, instead bought more VGC.

 

[ClaraOswald]

I think VDH seems just fine. But VGC will always be a step above. So with the fairly high price of the new VDH villas, the VGC value would basically "need" to be more.

 

[DMPicone]

I've always wanted to own VGC, stayed in 2015 for 10 nights as my first DVC stay (BLT contract) and the view into the park with the music playing all night and the ferris wheel right there could not be beat. It is the best view of any DVC with nothing else even able to compete at this point. It only has one view category though so when going for a studio you could get an incredible view of the park or a wall on the first floor which is one of the worst views of any resort. I really wish they had built the full new hotel they intended to between the two hotels as that one was to have balconies and views of the parks along with a rooftop area to watch the evening shows which would have been not as good, but more comparable.

When I did the math on DLH I wish I had bought into VGC direct years ago, but resale didn't seem as good since value was an important factor and flexibility is important. The points for studios were about the same but DLH had lower point options with the Duos. I still don't like the transient tax, but that doesn't swing cost enough to make the VGC resale better.

DLH at $180 (150 points with incentives) for 49 years is $3.67 per point. The VGC resale, if you can even find one at $275 which is low for the current going rate would still be about $7.64 per point for the remaining years on it. The current transient tax is $2.73 per point which will go up, but the initial buy in is still $4 difference. The dues I think are going to balance out because VGC is going up quick and DVC has been bringing new resorts in high which leads to several years of little to no increase so I don't consider that part a factor.

If in 15 years the transient tax balances out to match the $4 difference supply remains a concern. With a resale contract you need to get into VGC, so you'll have to book at 11 for sure and you can't fall back on the DLH since resale can't access it. With the DLH there are a lot more studios (plus better value Duos) making it hopefully easier to get a booking and then you can still wait list for the VGC to try to get in there once you know you have a place to sleep during your stay.

I think if Disneyland Forward happens the DLH value goes up immensely, but the experience will never match. Disneyland Forever is close to the residential area so any attractions have to be indoor to reduce noise and they can't have any kind of big shows that you'd be able to see from the hotels. Not having balconies also means the sounds can't get to the rooms, but you'll have easy access to both. Ironically the standard view rooms would become theme park rooms which could make for an interesting restructuring of the views and related points charts for the DLH.

 

[LeighHop]

I was browsing through the member benefits section of the DVC site, and found a 10% discount at 'The Lounge at Steakhouse 55' listed. Found it interesting.

View attachment 766186

This is a juicy little nugget!

 

[Royal Consort]

I've always wanted to own VGC, stayed in 2015 for 10 nights as my first DVC stay (BLT contract) and the view into the park with the music playing all night and the ferris wheel right there could not be beat. It is the best view of any DVC with nothing else even able to compete at this point. It only has one view category though so when going for a studio you could get an incredible view of the park or a wall on the first floor which is one of the worst views of any resort. I really wish they had built the full new hotel they intended to between the two hotels as that one was to have balconies and views of the parks along with a rooftop area to watch the evening shows which would have been not as good, but more comparable.

When I did the math on DLH I wish I had bought into VGC direct years ago, but resale didn't seem as good since value was an important factor and flexibility is important. The points for studios were about the same but DLH had lower point options with the Duos. I still don't like the transient tax, but that doesn't swing cost enough to make the VGC resale better.

DLH at $180 (150 points with incentives) for 49 years is $3.67 per point. The VGC resale, if you can even find one at $275 which is low for the current going rate would still be about $7.64 per point for the remaining years on it. The current transient tax is $2.73 per point which will go up, but the initial buy in is still $4 difference. The dues I think are going to balance out because VGC is going up quick and DVC has been bringing new resorts in high which leads to several years of little to no increase so I don't consider that part a factor.

If in 15 years the transient tax balances out to match the $4 difference supply remains a concern. With a resale contract you need to get into VGC, so you'll have to book at 11 for sure and you can't fall back on the DLH since resale can't access it. With the DLH there are a lot more studios (plus better value Duos) making it hopefully easier to get a booking and then you can still wait list for the VGC to try to get in there once you know you have a place to sleep during your stay.

I think if Disneyland Forward happens the DLH value goes up immensely, but the experience will never match. Disneyland Forever is close to the residential area so any attractions have to be indoor to reduce noise and they can't have any kind of big shows that you'd be able to see from the hotels. Not having balconies also means the sounds can't get to the rooms, but you'll have easy access to both. Ironically the standard view rooms would become theme park rooms which could make for an interesting restructuring of the views and related points charts for the DLH.

I think people just look at the high upfront cost of VGC and balk. Fair enough, the initial buy in is high, however let's compare the two.

VGC
Years remaining: 37
Buy in: Let's use your buy in at 275 because that seems reasonable.
2023 annual dues: $8.04
275/37 + 8.04 is giving you a per point cost $15.47. This isn't factoring in dues increases over time.

Let's take the third Tuesday in Nov, for example, which is 20 points a night. Total stay at Grand Californian is $309.44

Hotel stay with Disney for a standard view hotel room is $837.72 for that same night.


VDH
Years remaining 50
Buy in: we'll use your 180
Dues: $9.06
Transient tax for 2023: 2.73 per point.

180/50 + 9.06 + 2.73 gives you a per point cost of $15.39. This isn't including dues and transient tax increases over time.

Let's take our example 3rd Tuesday in November which is 20 points for a standard studio. So, $308.80 per night.

A cash stay in a standard room at Disneyland Hotel is going to cost you $629.46 for the same date.

As the numbers illustrate, VGC is the superior deal and continues to be superior value in spite of the initial high buy in. That's why the resale market went nuts after its announcement.

Now there are other arguments for VDH including emotional value and I would completely understand that. Its just not better value.

 

[elenex]

I think people just look at the high upfront cost of VGC and balk. Fair enough, the initial buy in is high, however let's compare the two.

VGC
Years remaining: 37
Buy in: Let's use your buy in at 275 because that seems reasonable.
2023 annual dues: $8.04
275/37 + 8.04 is giving you a per point cost $15.47. This isn't factoring in dues increases over time.

Let's take the third Tuesday in Nov, for example, which is 20 points a night. Total stay at Grand Californian is $309.44

Hotel stay with Disney for a standard view hotel room is $837.72 for that same night.


VDH
Years remaining 50
Buy in: we'll use your 180
Dues: $9.06
Transient tax for 2023: 2.73 per point.

180/50 + 9.06 + 2.73 gives you a per point cost of $15.39. This isn't including dues and transient tax increases over time.

Let's take our example 3rd Tuesday in November which is 20 points for a standard studio. So, $308.80 per night.

A cash stay in a standard room at Disneyland Hotel is going to cost you $629.46 for the same date.

As the numbers illustrate, VGC is the superior deal and continues to be superior value in spite of the initial high buy in. That's why the resale market went nuts after its announcement.

Now there are other arguments for VDH including emotional value and I would completely understand that. Its just not better value.

I'd go a step further and adjust your math a little bit to account for roughly equivalent views to highlight another inequity, the point chart and view. There are no standard view rooms in VGC, I'd say they range from partial to pool in terms of GCH categories. For the night in question, assuming you actually meant the second Tuesday in November (3rd Tuesday precedes Thanksgiving and rates don't match your post):

DLH deluxe view: 687.96
VDH preferred view: 851.76
VDH preferred view: 23 points, 353.97
% off DLH: 48.6%
% off VDH: 58.4%

GCH partial view: 988.65
GCH pool view: 1082.25
VGC: 20 points, 309.44
% off partial: 68.7%
% off pool: 71.6%

As you can see, while this isn't always the case, for the bulk of the year VDH preferred view costs more points than VGC and when this is taken into account, the actual cash cost for VGC per night is cheaper at 275pp than VDH at 180pp. Then you look at the cash value that Disney places on these rooms, and the gap grows further. Finally, there exists the question if the ~$100 per night premium Disney places on VDH over DLH is actually worth it, and that comes down to personal preference. And of course, these are rack rates, which are often discounted 20-30%, so if I actually prefer DLH deluxe to VDH preferred and can snag it at 30% for 481.57...

Edit: sorry, in a math mood. To put this another way... If you were to shoot for an equal percentage off VGC in this scenario to VDH (58.4%), being generous and basing this on the partial view the per night cost you'd be after is 411.28. Divide by 20 points and you've got a 20.56pp cost. Subtract out your 8.04 for dues, multiply by 37 remaining years and...

You're left with a staggering 463.38 per point. That's the buy in for VGC at which it provides equal value to this room, on this night at VDH, assuming the $180 buy in price (which I thought was 188 but whatever). So yeah.

But of course, the numbers are different at different times of year and at different room categories. But they aren't going to make up for a 283pp value gap, even if this is an extreme case (is it?).

The last argument for value would be the ability to use points at other properties and that simply doesn't hold water. No one is using VGC points elsewhere, and very few people are going to be able to book VGC with VDH points and certainly not consistently. The only scenario where this might hold up is if these points are your ONLY points. In which case, I'd suggest better options are to buy both resorts or if the intention is to use them at WDW, buy a resale contract where you want to stay or cheap SAPs.

Despite all this, I still find myself thinking that at some point we'll add a little VDH. But value will not be the motivator.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

Despite all this, I still find myself thinking that at some point we'll add a little VDH. But value will not be the motivator.

All this math is impressive and thanks for breaking it down. But at some point, it becomes paralysis by analysis. Most people don’t usually take the DVC plunge because of numbers. The same way a teenager doesn’t fall in love based on mathematical formulas. The heart wants what the heart wants.

 

[elenex]

All this math is impressive and thanks for breaking it down. But at some point, it becomes paralysis by analysis. Most people don’t usually take the DVC plunge because of numbers. The same way a teenager doesn’t fall in love based on mathematical formulas. The heart wants what the heart wants.

The one liner is that the points charts and ToT make VDH an exceptionally poor value when stacked up against all other properties.

The math is more for those on the fence. I just hope this isn't the new standard for future properties.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

The one liner is that the points charts and ToT make VDH an exceptionally poor value when stacked up against all other properties.

The math is more for those on the fence. I just hope this isn't the new standard for future properties.

I think Disneyland is a special case. There simply isn’t enough real estate and the City of Anaheim has too much power. Without getting too political, I hope the same doesn’t happen in Orlando with RCID. I think DVD has been pushing the limits in recent years in terms what they can and can’t do with DVC. Higher points charts, more expensive initial buy in, Resale restrictions and other perks going away. At the end of the day, we are paying for discounted rooms to stay in deluxe properties in the Disney bubble. Even at VDH, it’s a good deal with the TOT and all. Value is relative and subjective. I see great value potential for both VGC and VDH when compared to rack rates. Of course the prices don’t compare to the good neighbor hotels. But my heart doesn’t get warm and fuzzy over staying at Best Western over staying at VGC, no matter what the math says.

 

[Littlelulu01]

I don’t remember any new resort on recent offer that didn’t have a following that felt it was a poor choice. GFV 1 was initially a whopping $145/point and suffered point inflation. Poly had point inflation and the bungalows that were thought to make booking studios too difficult. CCV and Rivera had really high MF’s. They all had arguments about how financially they didn’t pencil out. I didn’t purchase CCV for fear of the high maintenance fees. In hindsight that was a mistake. I did purchase Rivera and it’s definitely penciled out financially better than I expected.

I only bought 50 points at Disneyland hotel villas and am really struggling weather to get to 150 for the discount. I’m comfortable with the purchase, just not so comfortable parting with the extra $ right now. I split payment into 3 months so I’ve got till the end of July to change my mind.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

I don’t remember any new resort on recent offer that didn’t have a following that felt it was a poor choice. GFV 1 was initially a whopping $145/point and suffered point inflation. Poly had point inflation and the bungalows that were thought to make booking studios too difficult. CCV and Rivera had really high MF’s. They all had arguments about how financially they didn’t pencil out. I didn’t purchase CCV for fear of the high maintenance fees. In hindsight that was a mistake. I did purchase Rivera and it’s definitely penciled out financially better than I expected.

I only bought 50 points at Disneyland hotel villas and am really struggling weather to get to 150 for the discount. I’m comfortable with the purchase, just not so comfortable parting with the extra $ right now. I split payment into 3 months so I’ve got till the end of July to change my mind.

It would be very difficult for me to NOT buy 150 points at VDH. The incentive at that price point is too significant to do otherwise. I know that the dues will be higher and most people don’t need that many points at Disneyland. But the discount is too tempting.

 

[MartyParty]

I think one aspect of the calculation missing is availability. Will be interesting to see how it plays out once VDH is fully built.

• My hunch is if owning VDH you’ll have greater opportunity to book a California DVC stay (VDH 340 rooms at 11 months or small small chance for VGC 71 rooms at 7 months). 411 rooms total. I will say we’ve stayed at VGC twice using our Poly points after the 7 month window. And since VGC owners dues pay the transient tax, we didn’t pay any transient tax while staying at VGC. Same will be true if using our VDH points at VGC.
• VGC direct owners will also have more choice albeit if staying at VDH paying the transient tax twice (VGC annual dues + VDH stay). Also 411 rooms. Increased California DVC choice now having two DVC resorts.
• VGC resale will only have room options at VGC’s 71 rooms

We missed out on VGC direct. VDH currently gives us the greatest flexibility of a DVC stay in California. Pure economic maths today, this “availability” factor will be priced in over time. Early days. I give it 5-10 years and then see what the market looks like.

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

I don’t remember any new resort on recent offer that didn’t have a following that felt it was a poor choice. GFV 1 was initially a whopping $145/point and suffered point inflation. Poly had point inflation and the bungalows that were thought to make booking studios too difficult. CCV and Rivera had really high MF’s. They all had arguments about how financially they didn’t pencil out. I didn’t purchase CCV for fear of the high maintenance fees. In hindsight that was a mistake. I did purchase Rivera and it’s definitely penciled out financially better than I expected.

I only bought 50 points at Disneyland hotel villas and am really struggling weather to get to 150 for the discount. I’m comfortable with the purchase, just not so comfortable parting with the extra $ right now. I split payment into 3 months so I’ve got till the end of July to change my mind.

I agree; I think as hotel rack rates keep climbing ridiculously more and more, VDH will seem better and better by comparison. Even if one can get a good deal on a rack rate at DLH now (say, 30% off), with VDH you are guaranteeing that discount. By the way, I would have a hard time passing on the 150 points also, but I'm not sure the better pp cost is worth financial strain if that's what it comes to. I say go whichever way causes you less stress since stress is bad for longevity and you want to be able to get as many years out of however many VDH points you have as you can!

 

[Sunnyore]

I don’t remember any new resort on recent offer that didn’t have a following that felt it was a poor choice. GFV 1 was initially a whopping $145/point and suffered point inflation. Poly had point inflation and the bungalows that were thought to make booking studios too difficult. CCV and Rivera had really high MF’s. They all had arguments about how financially they didn’t pencil out. I didn’t purchase CCV for fear of the high maintenance fees. In hindsight that was a mistake. I did purchase Rivera and it’s definitely penciled out financially better than I expected.

I only bought 50 points at Disneyland hotel villas and am really struggling weather to get to 150 for the discount. I’m comfortable with the purchase, just not so comfortable parting with the extra $ right now. I split payment into 3 months so I’ve got till the end of July to change my mind.

Wow you have better restraint than me. I wanted 50pts or at most 75pts at VDH and here I am with 150pts. My escrows are all closed so no chance to change my mind now. I also was not comfortable to part with extra $ but the chase plan it option for 24 months interest free just made it too easy. And I gave myself an exit plan too in case it doesn’t work out I can sell off some points if it comes to that. I paid $235pp for BLT so $183pp for a CA resort (or even $230) still felt like a good enough deal to me. I definitely didn’t want to have regrets 10 years later wishing I bought in at what should be it’s best price for direct pts.

 

[CaliforniaGirl09]

The math on those initial contracts is mind boggling. At 50 years, $2pp/year plus dues... Less than VDH's dues+tot alone.

I think we bought in for $92 or $94--we've never looked back. It's been an amazing deal for us out of the gate. Before buying, we always booked 2 rooms at the Grand Californian hotel so the break even happened quickly.

 

[finchy3]

Looking to purchase VDH from over in the UK, but on the DVC site the drop down menu only offers USA & Canada residence address, would I need to be stateside to purchase?
Thanks in advance