Unless JK Rowling sharpens her quill, Universal is living on borrowed time

[dpic]

It's been three years since the last Harry Potter movie, and five years since the last book. I loved the HP books--read them all three times. However, unless JK starts cranking out new content, Harry Potter's luster will fade in time. I'm not saying it won't be read--it just won't be the "hot" item it was the last decade.

Now, say what you will about Avatar Land, but there are more Avatar movies in the pipeline. Then, Star Wars is going to be HUGE, and it will stay huge for the foreseeable future. Add into that are more Pixar movies, more Marvel movies, and more Disney movies. Disney will have fresh content to draw on for decades.

How long can Universal live off of Harry Potter?

 

[*NikkiBell*]

I disagree wholeheartedly. The Harry Potter stories have become classics when it comes to children's literature and sit next to such famed texts as Charlotte's Web, The Chronicles of Narnia, etc. Over 400 million copies of the books have been sold worldwide and the original texts have been translated into 68 different languages. Every year, new Harry Potter fans are created as the next generations discover the series.

This is something that dawned on me last year in my classroom. It was then that I realized I was teaching a new group of children who knew nothing of the midnight release parties and Potter fandom that swept the nation back in the late 90s. While some of them had seen the movies, not all did and few read the books. This was the case again with this year's students. I have made sure to have the texts available as a result. They have been flying off of the shelves ever since.

In terms of new content, JK Rowling has released new content and more is to come. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (2001) and Quidditch through the Ages (2001) were released and are now being made into a movie triology. The Tales of Beedle the Bard came out in 2007. In 2011, Pottermore, an interactive website by Rowling, was born and includes new content. Later in 2012, it was confirmed that she is currently writing the Harry Potter Encyclopedia. This February, new covers debuted to commemorate the 15th U.S. release of the books which sparked more sales and, again, new fans.

New content is coming, and I think Universal will continue to profit off of it for years to come. Disney made a major mistake not winning the bid for Harry Potter rights in its parks. I honestly don't know how they will compete.

 

[Kimberle]

I don't agree either. HP is turning into classical literature. My dd was to young for the books when they came out. Now, she loves them. When she is in collage, a new group of kids will love them.

Look at the Lord of the Rings books. They were written around the 50's (I think), and they are still loved.

Probably in 20 years or so, they'll remake the HP movies. It's a circle....

 

[PeanutButterMom]

I don't agree either. HP is turning into classical literature. My dd was to young for the books when they came out. Now, she loves them. When she is in collage, a new group of kids will love them.

Look at the Lord of the Rings books. They were written around the 50's (I think), and they are still loved.

Probably in 20 years or so, they'll remake the HP movies. It's a circle....

I don't agree with OP either. PB and her friends are OBSESSED with Harry Potter, and they're 7 and 8 in 2nd grade. They're great books.

 

[YellowMickeyPonchos]

My girls (9 and 7) are very excited to see the Universal attractions on our trip to those other Disney parks rolleyes1) in late June. Z and her friends were also completely into the books in 2nd grade and now are being able to actually read and comprehend them this year.

The property will also be a brandspanking new combination out here in 2016 that will keep it going as a new phenomenon for another set of decades. After all, look at how long Universal has been able to milk such attractions as ET and Jaws, as well as (gasp) Waterworld.

The new movies and new content will certainly allow them to "mix it up" in the future, too.

I do agree with us not hitting the cusp of Avatar yet - if the 2 new movies stand up to the original. Look what the newer trilogy did to increase Star Wars popularity to a new generation.

 

[jcb]

I'm in the minority with everyone.

While quite enjoyable, I can't believe HP books are classics of children's literature. As literary works, they can't hold a candle to "such famed texts as Charlotte's Web, The Chronicles of Narnia, etc." (etc. being my favorite.) They also pale in comparison to Lord of the Rings (pale being a deliberate word choice given how much JK borrowed from JR's plot lines).

And to be honest, when I read "Star Wars" (not "Star Wars IV: A New Hope" but plain old "Star Wars" when the Detroit Free Press serialized the movie/novel in the summer of 1977) I thought it was hackneyed beyond tolerability (and that was from a teen who scarfed up any SF novel available). Great movies don't make great literature, nor does great literature necessarily make for a great movie (Peter Jackson's Lord of the Rings being a notable exception).

Still, I suggest theme park properties be judged on their own merit. When was the last time Mickey Mouse had a blockbuster movie?

 

[yitbos96bb]

Classic is not defined but rather a subjective consensus classification. Time will tell but given the fact those books outsold the classics you mentioned, the probability is they will be regarded as classics.

I'm in the minority with everyone.

While quite enjoyable, I can't believe HP books are classics of children's literature. As literary works, they can't hold a candle to "such famed texts as Charlotte's Web, The Chronicles of Narnia, etc." (etc. being my favorite.) They also pale in comparison to Lord of the Rings (pale being a deliberate word choice given how much JK borrowed from JR's plot lines).

And to be honest, when I read "Star Wars" (not "Star Wars IV: A New Hope" but plain old "Star Wars" when the Detroit Free Press serialized the movie/novel in the summer of 1977) I thought it was hackneyed beyond tolerability (and that was from a teen who scarfed up any SF novel available). Great movies don't make great literature, nor does great literature necessarily make for a great movie (Peter Jackson's Lord of the Rings being a notable exception).

Still, I suggest theme park properties be judged on their own merit. When was the last time Mickey Mouse had a blockbuster movie?

 

[yitbos96bb]

I would agree that Universal won't grow if they stay pact, unless transportation changes happen to allow easy visits from Disney property. But your hypothesis assumes Universal won't find another IP to priv use growth like HP or Simpsons to a smaller extent and that is where I disagree with you. For example, maybe they cut a deal for LOTR? Or DC (although if they did that they'd probably have yo give up Marvel) from Six Flags? Lots of available brands.

But Universal is never going to beat Disney in total attendance. No one expects them too. If they surpass one of Disney's parks up they'd be ecstatic. Think about the abysmal attendance they survived pre-HP. I have serious doubts they will ever head back to that terroritory.

Above all, we want universal to well. A real threat to Disney's attendance and bottom line potentially is a good thing fit the consumer...better discounts, new attractions etc. It could also mean too many cuts but we will see. However, HP doesnt seem to be hurting Disney right now... As far as I can see it seems to be a win for Orlando tourism period.

It's been three years since the last Harry Potter movie, and five years since the last book. I loved the HP books--read them all three times. However, unless JK starts cranking out new content, Harry Potter's luster will fade in time. I'm not saying it won't be read--it just won't be the "hot" item it was the last decade.

Now, say what you will about Avatar Land, but there are more Avatar movies in the pipeline. Then, Star Wars is going to be HUGE, and it will stay huge for the foreseeable future. Add into that are more Pixar movies, more Marvel movies, and more Disney movies. Disney will have fresh content to draw on for decades.

How long can Universal live off of Harry Potter?

 

[chigirl]

I am just about the most crazed Disney fan there is, but I also love:

Harry Potter
Star Wars
all things Marvel-related

so I can get 2 of my 3 obsessions satisfied at WDW.

But I can also tell you as a person who runs a resale shop, Harry Potter is alove and well and Universal is super-smart.

"Avitar", however...yikes.

WDW needs MarvelWorld or something...I know there is already a Marvel Land in the middle East, but still.

 

[jcb]

Classic is not defined but rather a subjective consensus classification. Time will tell but given the fact those books outsold the classics you mentioned, the probability is they will be regarded as classics.

Is there something wrong with being subjective?

 

[rteetz]

I am just about the most crazed Disney fan there is, but I also love: Harry Potter Star Wars all things Marvel-related so I can get 2 of my 3 obsessions satisfied at WDW. But I can also tell you as a person who runs a resale shop, Harry Potter is alove and well and Universal is super-smart. "Avitar", however...yikes. WDW needs MarvelWorld or something...I know there is already a Marvel Land in the middle East, but still.

With current contracts disney cannot put marvel in WDW unless its a new movie like guardians of the galaxy where those characters are not being used by universal.

 

[HubbDave]

What is the expiration of those licenses? Disney can afford to wait a while for Marvel to enter their parks

Plenty of intellectual property

Don't forget, they basically own Indiana Jones now, too

 

[rteetz]

What is the expiration of those licenses? Disney can afford to wait a while for Marvel to enter their parks Plenty of intellectual property Don't forget, they basically own Indiana Jones now, too

I don't know the expiration of those licenses but I don't think its within the next few years so they would have to wait a while. I also agree with you they could do something with Indiana jones

 

[luisov]

Well, the Harry Potter books have been around for almost 20 years and they're still pretty popular. And even if Rowling isn't writing new HP books, Warner Bros. is still releasing a new trilogy based on the Harry Potter universe. Trust me, Harry Potter is not going anywhere for at least an additional decade. It simply has that power to stay that Star Wars has and lots of people (Universal included) are planning to milk it a little longer.

 

[HubbDave]

I don't know the expiration of those licenses but I don't think its within the next few years so they would have to wait a while. I also agree with you they could do something with Indiana jones

I read up a bit on the license. It seems to be one with no expiration. So whatever Universal currently has, Disney can't use

Very strange

 

[rteetz]

I read up a bit on the license. It seems to be one with no expiration. So whatever Universal currently has, Disney can't use Very strange

Disney can use marvel at any other park tho anything outside of WDW is free game. Disney could also add things such as guardians of the galaxy to WDW but I don't see that happening. Just imagine if they could use the avengers characters.

 

[mdvlprof]

I'm in the minority with everyone.

Me, too.

HP movies were ok. JK has a good imagination. But I never have been able to finish an HP novel, because I get so frustrated with her lack of writing skill.

Kids, however, care about imagination, not writing skill....

 

[EastYorkDisneyFan]

Me, too.

HP movies were ok. JK has a good imagination. But I never have been able to finish an HP novel, because I get so frustrated with her lack of writing skill.

Lack of writing skill compared to who?

 

[ougrad86]

Her writing skill improved immensely as the series progressed...but her ability to build and outline the 7 book series so you see ties in at all levels in the books - that was really well done.

I think HP is a classic and will remain one, just like many other SF and Fantasy classics out there that have been mentioned here.

 

[MomofKatie]

How long can Universal live off of Harry Potter?

A quick comparison- this month, WDW is opening a brand new ride based on a 77 year old movie, which is based on a fairy tale hundreds of years older than that. People are clamoring to ride it- it is going o be crazy popular.

Universal can ride HP for a loooong time. Those books and films ARE classics.