Touringplans vs Undercovertourist

[E.Jane]

Just checking Touringplans and Undercovertourist for our visit in February - one site has Feb 7 as a 1 in Epcot; the other shows a 5. I would have been very surprised if they had both been identical, but there's quite a difference. Does one site tend to be more accurate than the other?

 

[greg9x]

I don't think there are any "1" days at Disney anymore... but think most will say that Crowd Calendars are nothing to base your days off of, as most are just guesses. You don't know if one site just has a generic place holder number in there or is basing it off some kind of actual data. The last couple years have really messed up the predictions.

 

[PrincessWithABlaster]

If it's TP that is showing a 1, it's helpful to understand what that means. They recently redid their algorithm to use recent crowd levels. So a 1 means that that day will be significant lower crowd levels than other recent days (I don't know ifrecent is over a year, over two years, or 5 years - I read the post but don't remember). The reason was that because attendance has been going up over the last few years they had a lot of 10 days and almost no 1 days. And that doesn't really tell you much or help you plan (although it totally fits the 'there are no slow days at Disney anymore narrative'). So a 1 now might be equivalent to 3 from 5 years ago.

I don't know what UT used for their crowd calendar. I would tend to trust TP more just because they are pretty upfront about what goes into their calculations. And they have been doing this a while. That said, they are trying to predict the future and no one really has a crystal ball so it's helpful to use when planning but it shouldn't be taken as gospel.

 

[DisFam4]

I think TP puts a little more energy in tweaking their crowd calendars. Does it make it better? Don't know, but as the PP stated they are very open on their process.

 

[philbrody]

Agreed on any individual predictor having variance. I tend to use 3/4 and then look for trends in consistency between them. If all are predicting slow for a park on a given day I tend to go, and don't go when all are predicting busy.

 

[StageTek]

Also Feb is quite a ways out. I'm going in Sept and started checking both TP and UT (and others) in Feb. They have all changed (sometimes dramatically) in the last couple of weeks.

 

[2boysmom1998]

Just checking Touringplans and Undercovertourist for our visit in February - one site has Feb 7 as a 1 in Epcot; the other shows a 5. I would have been very surprised if they had both been identical, but there's quite a difference. Does one site tend to be more accurate than the other?

I have not had very good luck with Touringplans. I have planned my trip around their predictions and have not found them to be reliable.

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

I wouldn’t put too much stock in ANY crowd calendar. If I had to give an edge to one of the two you mentioned it would go to TP. They seem to have a far more thorough process, and I like being able to look at historical levels, predicted and actual.

I consult them when I’m choosing when to travel — I stick 4 of them or so in a spreadsheet and look at the average just to get a general idea. Beyond that, I don’t rely on them to make my plans.

 

[Cannot_Wait_4Disney]

Just checking Touringplans and Undercovertourist for our visit in February - one site has Feb 7 as a 1 in Epcot; the other shows a 5. I would have been very surprised if they had both been identical, but there's quite a difference. Does one site tend to be more accurate than the other?

Touring plans is accurate for what it is. Wait times on the big rides. It is not necessarily an indicator of how crowded the park will be though in general, they correlate. But sometimes they don't. The best example is Food and wine weekends. The back section will be more crowded (especially in the evenings) than wait times on the rides would indicate.

 

[E.Jane]

thank you all for your replies!

 

[Euby]

I wouldn’t put too much stock in ANY crowd calendar. If I had to give an edge to one of the two you mentioned it would go to TP. They seem to have a far more thorough process, and I like being able to look at historical levels, predicted and actual.

I consult them when I’m choosing when to travel — I stick 4 of them or so in a spreadsheet and look at the average just to get a general idea. Beyond that, I don’t rely on them to make my plans.

Glad to know I'm not the only one that does this.

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

Glad to know I'm not the only one that does this.

Spreadsheet geeks unite!!

 

[gharter]

I would agree that I'm not sure any of the crowd calendars are very accurate. At best, its an educated guess. I look at them to get an idea of how busy the parks probably will be, but rarely change my plans based on their predictions.