Touring Plans Accuracy Question

[Momager]

How accurate is Touring Plans in predicting hours, and what park has EMHs on what day?
I want to get going on my planning.


Thanks!

 

[Robo]

One of several "prediction" sites.
Choose one, if you like.

But, the Disney site will show you those things 6 months in advance.
(And, even from Disney, those early-posted listings will be updated as the
actual dates get closer.)

 

[maryj11]

Well I have had good luck with them in the past. Last year with all the changes not many of the crowd calendars have been very accurate. They were about half right on the crowd predictions our last trip there. I still check the crowd calendar out anyway. They usually change crowd predictions the closer it gets to those dates. Extra magic hours and park hours are just updated as Disney changes them. The way I figure is that when a park is not having EMH then it will lower crowds. EMH has pretty much stayed the same over the past few years, but they have changed them on us a couple years ago. I just figure they will be the same as last year.
Ops just read your question again and you didn't even ask about crowds. I usually go back to the historical crowd calendar and check to see the park hours from then. They usually stay about the same.

 

[gharter]

EMH are usually accurate adn don't change a lot in my experience.
Park hours are an entirely different matter.
I love Touring plans, but don't necessarily believe their crowd calendars or their expected hours.
Disney can and does change hours even up to a few days before.
I have read 2 schools of thought: 1 to go to a park on EMH days and get there early and another to go the day after EMH as its often less crowded. Not sure I've ever seen any realy data to back up either concept.

 

[PrincessWithABlaster]

EMH are usually accurate adn don't change a lot in my experience.
Park hours are an entirely different matter.
I love Touring plans, but don't necessarily believe their crowd calendars or their expected hours.
Disney can and does change hours even up to a few days before.
I have read 2 schools of thought: 1 to go to a park on EMH days and get there early and another to go the day after EMH as its often less crowded. Not sure I've ever seen any realy data to back up either concept.

The data doesn't actually back up the day after EMH approach for MK (other parks could absolutely be different). Wed, Thurs, and Fri are middle of the pack and about average for the week (Wed is a PM EMH day, Thurs is the day after a PM EMH day, and Fri is an AM EMH day). Also, the only data I've seen is now a year old, but this advice has been around for a very long time so I would bet it was accurate at one point and just isn't anymore.

See the link below for the data.

EasyWDW MK Day of the Week Analysis.

TP has hours based on what Disney has published. One thing I like about them is that they email you and update the info on your custom touring plans if the park hours change. As someone who is not good at checking back for park hour updates, that keeps me informed.

 

[epcotobsessed]

I use the crowd calendars from Touring Plans and Kenny The Pirate and 'average' them. Usually they mostly agree, sometimes they totally disagree and then I just do what I want. It's always at least a moderate crapshoot.

 

[mrs_coco]

I love TP site for info but to be honest we have found the crowd calendar to be off. We went November 2018 and TP predicted crowd levels 4-6 and they were more like 8-9.

Went back January 4-6, 2019 and TP predicted 9-10 and we had no problem getting last minute fast passes and the crowds were not too bad.

All that said I think it's a great site and valuable resource but the reality is no one except Disney really knows how many people are scheduled to come and when. And it can vary greatly year to year.

 

[GADisneyDad14]

As OP’s question was about TP’s accuracy in predicting future park hours and EMHs, which has been answered, closing.