To Infinity and Beyond - Becoming a Better DopeyBadger (Comments Welcome)

[DisMatt0483]

1:29:47

 

[TeeterTots]

1:24:59

 

[Sleepless Knight]

My usual Back to the Future guess. 88.8 miles per hour.

 

[Mumof4mice]

1:25:28

 

[FFigawi]

1:30:42

 

[DopeyBadger]

My usual Back to the Future guess. 88.8 miles per hour.

I'll take it as 1:28:08.

 

[DopeyBadger]

Madison HM Weather: 4 days to go!




Start at 7am and end at 9am
11/1/19 - WC of 19-22, 76% cloudy, 15% chance of snow, 8mph W wind
11/2/19 - WC of 21-23, 79% cloudy, 17% chance of snow, 11mph W wind
11/3/19 - WC of 25-27, 68% cloudy, 15% chance of snow, 6mph W wind
11/4/19 - WC of 17-19, 50% cloudy, 6% chance of snow, 8mph N wind
11/5/19 - WC of 13-14, 73% cloudy, 22% chance of snow, 13mph N wind
11/6/19 - WC of 23-25, 90% cloudy, 24% chance of precipitation, 9mph NW wind
11/7/19 - WC of 24-25, 89% cloudy, 12% chance of precipitation, 9mph NW wind

Back on the good side of the prediction range. Low chance of precipitation Saturday night and Sunday morning. Temps would now be roughly equal to Dopey 5k in 2018 (WC of 24). That puts shorts and a tank back in as race day attire. Looks like in that race I wore cutoff socks as arm sleeves.



But when I ran the 10k the next morning, I had decided to drop the beanie hat and arm warmers (socks) to run the race of my life. It was a tad warmer for the 10k (WC of 30).



So I guess the question goes, what to do, what to do. I might go no hat and yes sock sleeves. Then toss the sock sleeves if I ever feel the need to since they're practically free (just find the worst pair of socks in the bunch).

 

[canglim52]

Madison HM Weather: 4 days to go!

View attachment 450947


Start at 7am and end at 9am
11/1/19 - WC of 19-22, 76% cloudy, 15% chance of snow, 8mph W wind
11/2/19 - WC of 21-23, 79% cloudy, 17% chance of snow, 11mph W wind
11/3/19 - WC of 25-27, 68% cloudy, 15% chance of snow, 6mph W wind
11/4/19 - WC of 17-19, 50% cloudy, 6% chance of snow, 8mph N wind
11/5/19 - WC of 13-14, 73% cloudy, 22% chance of snow, 13mph N wind
11/6/19 - WC of 23-25, 90% cloudy, 24% chance of precipitation, 9mph NW wind
11/7/19 - WC of 24-25, 89% cloudy, 12% chance of precipitation, 9mph NW wind

Back on the good side of the prediction range. Low chance of precipitation Saturday night and Sunday morning. Temps would now be roughly equal to Dopey 5k in 2018 (WC of 24). That puts shorts and a tank back in as race day attire. Looks like in that race I wore cutoff socks as arm sleeves.

View attachment 450950

But when I ran the 10k the next morning, I had decided to drop the beanie hat and arm warmers (socks) to run the race of my life. It was a tad warmer for the 10k (WC of 30).

View attachment 450951

So I guess the question goes, what to do, what to do. I might go no hat and yes sock sleeves. Then toss the sock sleeves if I ever feel the need to since they're practically free (just find the worst pair of socks in the bunch).

I’d offer advice, but you know what I wore for Fargo lol.... and that was 40’s

 

[DopeyBadger]

2019 DopeyBadger Racing Season Prediction Contest - Race #5 (Madison HM)

My Guess!

Alright, the last couple of rounds were easier to nail down (DoLittle and Haunted Hustle), but now we're really into unknown territory with a full-on max effort race. I think that always makes it especially hard to nail down.

I evaluated the Madison HM course.



*Found this person on Strava who ran last year. Final GAP difference was 3 second per mile with total elevation of 435 ft. Most seemed to be between 400-500 feet.

Miles 8-9 and 12-13 appear to be where the hills are. Otherwise, it's mostly flat. Using this runner's GAP, I was able to roughly ascertain the effect of each mile difference from flat terrain.



*This actually ended up a little calmer than the data I had extrapolated from the marathon runner earlier. So the course is a little easier than I had originally calculated. It's now estimated to be around a 33 ft gain per mile average.

I then combined the VO2max data, HR data, and GAP data to create a goal pace range for each mile.



The current VDOT has been bouncing between 58 and 59. So I included both on here as a reference vs the VDOT values. The relationship between performance and Garmin value has been a delta of 6.6 (5k), 6.7 (5k), 6.0 (M), 8.5 (5k), 5.9 (Dop 10k), 7.4 (Dop HM), and 9.6 (Dop M) when the T+D is less than 100. Excluding the Dop M, that comes to an average of a 6.85 delta. So I threw in the 6.5 mark from the 58 and 59 Garmin VO2max values to say that the average would be somewhere around 1:27:45-1:29:00. Although I was a bit worried about doing this for an "A" race in case the GAPs of these comparison races was wildly different. They were a GAP of -2 (5k), -2 (5k), +2 (M), even (5k), -1 (10k), and -1 (HM). So while this race is a -3, it's not crazy different than the other races. So maybe an adjustment of 13-26 seconds at the most which is well within the margin for error of the 6-8 differences seen between races. So I think the range is reasonable. Most people didn't seem to run 13.11 miles on this one (ranged from 13.15-13.3 for most of the runners around my predicted finish range). So maybe a touch of distance there, but then so did the Dopey races and Lakefront marathon. So I'm calling that part a wash. So my pace band will cover the high end (1:27) to the low end (1:30:05) for my goal splits on each mile.

I increased the font size for the Haunted Hustle and found that easier to read. So I'll use two pace bands again covering the first and second half of the race.



For my guess, I'm going to aim low with high hopes. In my heart, I think I can run in the 1:27-1:29 range. But I'm choosing to take the slow end of the prediction range with a 1:30:05 since I seem to overestimate my abilities in a max effort race. I SO want to be wrong on this one. It'll be a PR, but just missing out on sub-90. I'm currently off by +195 seconds in the game thus far. So per the rules, I need to guess a time faster than actual to negate my current difference. So 1:30:05 - 195 seconds would be 1:26:50.

Let's do this!

 

[DopeyBadger]

I’d offer advice, but you know what I wore for Fargo lol.... and that was 40’s

So pretty much the same. Tank, Nike Gyo, maybe arm sleeves, definitely gloves, and maybe beanie. Just only a 15F difference. We can call that the northerner correction.

 

[DopeyBadger]

The other twist is that I think while it's unnecessary to do so, I'm going to carb load on Saturday for the HM. I believe I've got 13 packets of Maurten 320 remaining and only need 8 to maximally take in the liquid consumption portion. I really want to see whether I get the same feeling as I've gotten for marathons with this (both the pros and cons). While the research supports that it's beneficial for anything over 90 min, this HM is right on the cusp of being useful. Additionally, I'll probably take in a Maurten caff gel at 40-45 min into the race as I like how I felt after eating one during the 160 min training run.

 

[TheHamm]

I am scrolling past your guess and giving you mine:
1:24:42

I have no actual basis for the seconds except if Deep Thought can calculate it, than it has to be good.

 

[DopeyBadger]

I have no actual basis for the seconds except if Deep Thought can calculate it, than it has to be good.

24 is just the mirror image (or rotating image) of 42. So there's that...

 

[DopeyBadger]

If anyone wants to track me: https://www.madisonmarathon.org/event-details/#section-0



Bib# 4700

 

[dis_or_dat]

I think your running clothes choice makes sense - you can always toss the beanie and gloves if you get warm. If you don't want to lose the beanie, you can stuff it down the front of your tank, you might look silly but it shouldn't affect your run unless you sweat a bunch and your tank isn't tucked in. I usually get hot within 2 min of a race.

Since my half time is much slower than yours, I decided to carb and water load prior, maurten 320 right before race, e-gel at mile 4 and caffeine huma at mile 8. My last halfs I never fueled and hit a wall around mile 8, but with your training and fueling I negative split and finished strong. I really prehydrated the days leading up to it, which I think may have helped me get away with only 3 oz of water during the race (plus maurten 320 and T+D = 80).

 

[DopeyBadger]

I think your running clothes choice makes sense - you can always toss the beanie and gloves if you get warm. If you don't want to lose the beanie, you can stuff it down the front of your tank, you might look silly but it shouldn't affect your run unless you sweat a bunch and your tank isn't tucked in. I usually get hot within 2 min of a race.

Not tucked in, but the shorts do have an extensive pocket system.

Since my half time is much slower than yours, I decided to carb and water load prior, maurten 320 right before race, e-gel at mile 4 and caffeine huma at mile 8. My last halfs I never fueled and hit a wall around mile 8, but with your training and fueling I negative split and finished strong. I really prehydrated the days leading up to it, which I think may have helped me get away with only 3 oz of water during the race (plus maurten 320 and T+D = 80).

Solid!

 

[DopeyBadger]

Live finish line feed as well:

I should finish around 8:35-8:45am central time zone. I'll likely be wearing this outfit:

 

[DopeyBadger]

Madison HM Weather: 3 days to go!




Start at 7am and end at 9am
11/1/19 - WC of 19-22, 76% cloudy, 15% chance of snow, 8mph W wind
11/2/19 - WC of 21-23, 79% cloudy, 17% chance of snow, 11mph W wind
11/3/19 - WC of 25-27, 68% cloudy, 15% chance of snow, 6mph W wind
11/4/19 - WC of 17-19, 50% cloudy, 6% chance of snow, 8mph N wind
11/5/19 - WC of 13-14, 73% cloudy, 22% chance of snow, 13mph N wind
11/6/19 - WC of 23-25, 90% cloudy, 24% chance of precipitation, 9mph NW wind
11/7/19 - WC of 24-25, 89% cloudy, 12% chance of precipitation, 9mph NW wind
11/8/19 - WC of 24-26, 91% cloudy, 8% chance of precipitation, 9mph NW wind

Looking lucky again because Sunday night is now showing that precipitation that had been jumping around. Fingers crossed with less than 48 hrs to go.

 

[DopeyBadger]

2019 DopeyBadger Racing Season Prediction Contest - Race #5 (Madison HM)

My Guess!

Final Guesses

1:21:16 - Gigi
1:24:00 - @Chaitali
1:24:42 - @TheHamm
1:24:59 - @TeeterTots
1:25:13 - @KSellers88
1:25:28 - @Mumof4mice
1:25:56 - @steph0808
1:26:00 - @bovie
1:26:00 - Steph
1:26:14 - @roxymama
1:26:17 - @SarahDisney
1:26:30 - @lhermiston
1:26:32 - @Jules76126
1:26:50 - Me
1:27:15 - @JAMIESMITH
1:27:27 - @SheHulk
1:27:48 - @disneygpa
1:28:08 - @PkbaughAR
1:28:08 - @Sleepless Knight
1:28:26 - @mrsg00fy
1:29:38 - @MissLiss279
1:29:47 - @DisMatt0483
1:29:50 - @michigandergirl
1:30:42 - @FFigawi
1:33:25 - @surfde22
1:34:52 - @canglim52
1:36:46 - @DerTobi75

Passing
@tigger536
@flav
@cburnett11
@QueenFernando

Good luck everyone!

 

[DopeyBadger]

Madison HM Weather: Tomorrow!

Start at 7am and end at 9am
11/1/19 - WC of 19-22, 76% cloudy, 15% chance of snow, 8mph W wind
11/2/19 - WC of 21-23, 79% cloudy, 17% chance of snow, 11mph W wind
11/3/19 - WC of 25-27, 68% cloudy, 15% chance of snow, 6mph W wind
11/4/19 - WC of 17-19, 50% cloudy, 6% chance of snow, 8mph N wind
11/5/19 - WC of 13-14, 73% cloudy, 22% chance of snow, 13mph N wind
11/6/19 - WC of 23-25, 90% cloudy, 24% chance of precipitation, 9mph NW wind
11/7/19 - WC of 24-25, 89% cloudy, 12% chance of precipitation, 9mph NW wind
11/8/19 - WC of 24-26, 91% cloudy, 8% chance of precipitation, 9mph NW wind
11/9/19 - WC of 27-28, 93% cloudy, 6% chance of precipitation, 8mph NW wind

Looking good!