To Infinity and Beyond - Becoming a Better DopeyBadger (Comments Welcome)

Not yet. @opusone and I are ironing out the details at the moment on the new rules for this year. Once finalized I'll have a post.

Well speed it up, will ya? I'm headed out of town on Sunday with no internet access and I don't want to miss out!

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2018 Walt Disney World Dopey Challenge Prediction Contest

As is part of the fun of racing for me is to try and pre-predict the race results. The last couple of major races, I've opened up that prediction contest to others as well. After I revealed last year's Dopey Challenge rules, @opusone had commented that they weren't nearly complicated enough. So I decided to give @opusone the opportunity to write this year's rules. And boy did he crank up the complicatedness of the prediction game!

From the outset: This is meant to be a fun game amongst friends. Whether you've posted or not, you're welcome to join in. Your prediction will have no bearing on how I approach the race or actually race. I plan to run all 4 races of the Dopey Challenge blind to GPS/pace feedback and simply by effort. I've essentially done this each and every year of Dopey and enjoy the freedom it gives me. Oh, and the times I've got written in the DIS List may or may not be what I think will happen (those aren't my official guesses). I make my predictions last.

Past Champions:
2016 Lakefront Marathon: Heidi (SIL)
2017 Dopey Challenge: opusone
2017 Lakefront Marathon: FelisLachesis

General Rules

-All predictions must be made between 12/19/17 (now) and 12/26/17 (11:59pm) in this journal, on Strava, or verbal to me.
-Only one set of predictions per person.
-A person should predict 5k, 10k, Half Marathon, and Marathon finishing times (not paces). In addition, a tie breaker of final cumulative time Dopey rank will be used as calculated by @opusone.
-There is no limitation on guesses and their closeness to others. Therefore, two people can make the same exact prediction for any of the times (ie. two people can predict a 5k time of 25:00).
-The official RunDisney time for William Blaser for the 5k, 10k, HM, and M will be used as the official finishing times for this contest. The Garmin/Strava times do not count.
- @opusone has graciously volunteered his time (you're off the hook @roxymama) to update the standings after each race and give the final standings after all 4 events have been completed. I will inform him of the official race time (or he can look it up himself) and he will post on here the standings from that day's event as well as the current total standings (with all completed events totaled up to that day).

Points are accumulated in the following manner:
--The time difference between one's guess and the official time as recorded by RunDisney will be calculated.
--All time differences will be calculated as absolute differences. So, being 5 seconds too fast or 5 seconds too slow are both equal to being off by 5 seconds for the purpose of calculating rank.
--Everyone's time difference for each individual race will be ranked against other participants. The person with the closest guess to the actual time (therefore, the smallest difference between guess and actual time) for an individual race is ranked first. The 2nd closest person is ranked second. etc.
--(NEW) However, new this year are penalties! So, while you may rank 2nd or 3rd on an event's prediction you may not actually receive the points from the guess.

PENALTIES:
1. If you guess a time higher (slower) than @DopeyBadger’s actual 5k time, you get zero points for that race. Therefore, if my time is 20:00 and you guess 20:10, then you receive 0 points regardless of rank.
2. If you guess a time lower (faster) than @DopeyBadger’s actual 10k time, you get zero points for that race. Therefore, if my time is 40:00 and you guess 39:50, then you receive 0 points regardless of rank.
3. If you guess a time for the half marathon time and @DopeyBadger’s actual time is not within +/-3 minutes of your guess, you get zero points for that race. Therefore, if my time is 1:30:00 you must have guessed between 1:27:00 and 1:33:00 (inclusive 180 seconds) to receive any points. If you guess 1:33:01 in this example, then you would receive 0 points regardless of rank.
4. Finally, if you guess a marathon time within 1 minute of @DopeyBadger’s actual time, you get zero points for that race (this may be my favorite rule because it absolutely makes no sense). Therefore, if my time is 3:20:00 you must not have guessed anything between 3:19:00 and 3:21:00 (inclusive 60 seconds) to receive any points. If you guess 3:21:01, then in this example you would be eligible for points. If you guessed 3:20:00 (so my exact finishing time), then you would receive 0 points.


--Each individual event's time difference is calculated separately and ranked separately from other events. Therefore, the time difference/rank of the 5k guess has no impact on the time difference/rank of the Half Marathon.
--The highest number of possible points is based on the number of participants. If there are 27 people playing, then the person with the closest 5k guess could get 27 points. The 2nd person could get 26 points. etc. Same for each of the other events (10k, HM and M).
--(NEW) Just to make things completely ridiculous, although people may get zero points for certain races based on the new penalties above, these people’s guesses are still part of the ranking to determine points. For example, if you have 27 people with guesses for the 5k, and the two people that were closest to the actual time were both too slow (such that they get zero points based on Penalty Rule #1 above), the closest guess that is below the actual time will only get 25 points (instead of 27).
--(NEW) Race specific point multipliers! So, after every person is ranked and the points are determined for an event, the points are then multiplied by the distance of the event in miles. So, using the above example: the person with the closest 5k guess that did not hit a penalty was awarded 25 points. The 25 points is now multiplied by 3.11 (miles in 5k) for a total event score of 77.75. For those paying attention, that means the 5k is multiplied by 3.11, 10k by 6.21, HM by 13.11 and M by 26.22. The further distance races mean WAY more on final score than does the earlier games. A top guess in the 5k could net you 83.97 points (if 27 people playing [27*3.11=83.97]), but a top marathon guess could net you 707.94 points (if 27 people playing [27*26.22=707.94])

--If two people have the exact same time difference, then they share the total points. The next person in rank then receives less points (determined by the number tied at the same time difference). Therefore, if 10 people are playing and the top time difference of 7 seconds is shared by 3 people, then those 3 people all get 10 points for that event (as long as not awarded a penalty). The next person in rank (4th) gets 7 points.
--The person with the highest time difference (worst or furthest from the actual time) receives only 1 point.
--In the event, I do not finish a race (therefore, pulled from the HM course because of injury or another reason), then the ranks will be done with slowest being 1st place and down the list to the fastest prediction being last.
--In the event, a race is not conducted (like a cancelled race or a black flagged race with no finish time), then the results of that race are null. No one receives any points.
--The final rank of each person is the accumulation of points from each individual event (5k, 10k, HM, and M) summed together. The person with the most accumulated points wins the game.
--In the event two people share the highest cumulative point total, then a tie breaker will be used. The tie breaker is guessing the final cumulative Dopey time rank as calculated by @opusone. The absolute value from the final Dopey rank will be used to determine who is closest (no price is right rules). However, in the event that two people tie in top final rank, and tie in absolute value difference from final Dopey rank, then the person with the lower guess (closer to #1 ranked Dopey runner) is the winner. If the two champions are still tied (because they both guessed the exact same final cumulative Dopey rank), then the person who made their guesses first wins.
--In the event of a disagreement, I will make the final decision. I reserve the right to edit the rules after this post has been made if I deem necessary.

Now the easy version of the rules:
-Guess my 5k, 10k, HM, and M finishing times.
-Guess my Dopey cumulative rank.
-Don't guess too slow on the 5k.
-Don't guess too fast on the 10k.
-Aim close as possible for the HM.
-Don't aim to close for the M.
-The marathon guess probably means the most of all.

Prize:
-The winner (as determined by total cumulative points and tie breaker) will receive one (1) $10 Amazon gift card via email.

Data:

As always I like to provide ample amounts of data to help guide you in making your predictions. I've run the Dopey Challenge 4 times thus far. But the 2014 version (first year) is probably least like the others and I'm not sure the data is really relevant at this point in my training. So, I'll stick with giving historical data on the other three years (2015, 2016, and 2017).

2015 Dopey Challenge

-Used FIRST training, but with Dopey simulations every 4 weeks.
-Training cycle was only 9 weeks because I ran a marathon in early November (4:20, a PR)
-Training Paces

Screen Shot 2017-12-19 at 12.16.17 PM.png

-Results
--5k = 23:52 (7:40 min/mile), Garmin had 3.16 miles at 7:33 min/mile
--10k = 49:49 (8:01 min/mile), Garmin had 6.26 miles at 7:58 min/mile
--HM = 1:59:04 (9:05 min/mile), Garmin had 13.22 miles at 9:00 min/mile
--M = 4:27:23 (10:12 min/mile), Garmin had 26.44 miles at 10:07 min/mile

2016 Dopey Challenge

-Used modified Hansons training.
-Training cycle was 12 weeks coming off Lakefront Marathon (PR of 3:38)
-Training paces

Screen Shot 2017-12-19 at 12.24.18 PM.png

-Results
--5k = 21:49 (7:01 min/mile), Garmin had 3.19 miles at 6:51 min/mile
--10k = 44:57 (7:14 min/mile), Garmin had 6.26 miles at 7:11 min/mile
--HM = 1:43:09 (7:52 min/mile), Garmin had 13.18 miles at 7:50 min/mile
--M = 3:55:35 (8:59 min/mile), Garmin had 26.33 miles at 8:57 min/mile **Hot race**

2017 Dopey Challenge

-Used modified Hansons training.
-Training cycle was 12 weeks coming off Lakefront Marathon (PR of 3:23)
-Training Paces

Screen Shot 2017-12-19 at 12.28.56 PM.png

Total weeks – 12 weeks
Total non-recovery weeks – 10 weeks
Total non-recovery weeks mileage – 564.1 miles
Average # of miles during non-recovery weeks – 56.4 miles
Total non-recovery weeks duration – 73:23:09
Average duration during non-recovery weeks – 7:20:19
# of weeks above 70% intervals hit (including easy) – 11/12 weeks (92%)
# of weeks over 8 hours training – 3/10 (30%)
# of weeks over 9 hours training – 2/10 (20%)
# of runs at 120 minutes – 0
# of runs over 120 minutes - 3
# of runs at 150 minutes (max duration) – 1
Week at which peak was hit – Week 10
Scheduled Marathon training pace – 7:33 min/mile
Average Marathon training pace in workouts – 7:27 min/mile
Actual Marathon Race pace – 7:36 min/mile
Final Marathon time divided by 26.2 miles – 7:40 min/mile

-Results
--5k = 21:02 (6:46 min/mile), Garmin had 3.16 miles at 6:39 min/mile (6:55, 6:29, 6:36)
--10k = 43:25 (6:59 min/mile), Garmin had 6.26 miles at 6:56 min/mile (7:41, 6:50, 6:46, 6:40, 6:47, 6:56)
--HM = cancelled
--M = 3:20:52 (7:40 min/mile), Garmin had 26.44 miles at 7:36 min/mile

2018 Dopey Challenge

-Used modified Hansons training.
-Training cycle was 13 weeks coming off Lakefront Marathon (PR of 3:14)
-Training Paces

Screen Shot 2017-12-19 at 12.33.00 PM.png

Training overall has been going really well. Not unlike last year, I was able to pick up the paces towards the latter half of the training cycle. I was and am hitting the faster end of the pacing spectrum across the board (- 10 sec or -5 sec or -3 sec dependent on the pace). This year's training temperatures are much warmer than last year. Many sub-zero days last year and this year it's been mainly 10-30. Although some really cold days are headed here by the weekend. I've got no lingering injuries that I'm aware of.

Definitely averaging more training duration than 2017 Dopey. Probably at about 8:15-8:30 hours a week on average right now. Only 3 weeks over 8 hrs though and only 1 above 9 hours. I have definitely done significantly more elevation training this year than any past year.

For the first time at Dopey, I plan to use caffeine for racing. The current plan is a single dose prior to the 5k and 10k. One before and during the HM. And one before and two during the M. I have tolerated the use of caffeine well thus far. The plan may or may not change based on how I feel on race day.

As many of you know, the weather in Disney during early January can be extremely variable. So one day it could be 30s and the other 80s. In reality, the weather isn't predictable until about 2-3 days out from the event. If I hit around my predicted paces, then I am very likely to finish before the sun rises on 5k, 10k, and HM day. I'd be around 50% finished with the marathon before the sun would rise on Sunday as well.

Current Official PRs:

5k = 20:30
10k = 43:25
HM = 1:38:49
M = 3:14:05

Unofficial PRs:

5k = 19:29
10k = 41:25
HM = 1:33:32
M = 3:14:05

Feel free to ask me any additional questions that you may find valuable either on my training in the past/currently or on any of the rules.

I'll update the section below with all current predictions until the contest window closes.

Current Predictions:
Screen Shot 2017-12-27 at 7.42.23 AM.png
 
Last edited:
I don't like these new rules. They make guessing harder. I always wish you PRs so I'm hoping that based on my assumption that you will have a small PR in each these will all get me points. We'll see how it goes.
5k = 19:49
10k = 43:40
HM = 1:37:52
M = 3:09:59
Cumulative Dopey Rank: 41
 
OMG this is amazing!!! I feel like we know what would happen now if the Mad Hatter was a data analyst.
Guess I'll just go ahead and throw my pasta against the wall and see if anything sticks?

5k 18:53
10k 43:40
HM 1:31:30
M 3:08:17
D Edited because I can't read rules. Dopey rank 54. I stand with my May the Force be with You reasoning
 
5K = 19.79
10K = 44.77
HM = 1:41.58
M = 3:41.05

Dopey Rank: 72

I like the new penalty points it truly makes things interested. Can't wait to see how they come into play. Hopefully I have the golden ticket.
 
I literally had to take note while reading this... sheesh.

--In the event of a disagreement, I will make the final decision. I reserve the right to edit the rules after this post has been made if I deem necessary.
Let's not edit them too much.... ;)

Run.Minnie.Mile Official Predictions:
5K: 19:17
10K: 42:59
HM: 1:29:17
M: 3:13:13
Rank: #48

Have a great race weekend!! Enjoy and have fun!
 

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