The State Department advises U.S. citizens to reconsider foreign travel - update on 3/11, page 8.

[Coffee66]

GWT this. NBA just suspended the rest of the season. Player has covid19

 

[gotomu212]

I think it’s next for sure. Seems like all large gatherings are being canceled, like fans at the NCAA tournament. It doesn’t make a ton of sense to ban crowds from events but let people get on cruise ships

edit to say the NBA just suspended the entire season. When decisions like that are being made it’s hard to see cruises continuing. I just hope we get refunds instead of making us rebook in a certain timeframe

The NBA season suspension is shocking. How you cancel events with more than 200 or a 1000 people but then encourage 4000 to be on a ship and require Us government support seems really counter intuitive.

 

[sethschroeder]

The NBA season suspension is shocking. How you cancel events with more than 200 or a 1000 people but then encourage 4000 to be on a ship and require Us government support seems really counter intuitive.

I think part of this is that the government is not ordering these things. Most of these are either companies doing it themselves or regional government entities taking action.

 

[Numtini]

And Tom Hanks and his wife tested positive for the virus. If you just want to finish the night with some extra misery.

 

[gotomu212]

I think part of this is that the government is not ordering these things. Most of these are either companies doing it themselves or regional government entities taking action.

I agree with you, but I think the European travel ban changes things for cruises in that the government is controlling who can come into the country which is what a cruise specifically does, and these private companies require intensive government spending when they go wrong like the Princess ships.

 

[flstatenolefan]

.

 

[hrhdhd]

And Tom Hanks and his wife tested positive for the virus. If you just want to finish the night with some extra misery.

Not sure how that would make me miserable, but they are apparently in Australia.

 

[tidefan]

The NBA season suspension is shocking. How you cancel events with more than 200 or a 1000 people but then encourage 4000 to be on a ship and require Us government support seems really counter intuitive.

The center for the Utah Jazz tested positive for Coronavirus

 

[bunnm09]

We’ve got universities canceling classes to prevent potential of a spread as well. At some point cruises will be canceled. To me it looks like it’s just a matter of when, not if

 

[mmmears]

While looking for something else on the State Dept website, I ran across this quote which addresses some of the things discussed upthread:

In some cases, local authorities have permitted disembarkation but subjected passengers to local quarantine procedures. While the U.S. government has evacuated some cruise ship passengers in recent weeks, repatriation flights should not be relied upon as an option for U.S. citizens under the potential risk of quarantine by local authorities.

 

[Husker Mike]

The NHL will announce a suspension tomorrow.

https://media.nhl.com/public/news/13909
If I had to bet, Disney will announce they are suspending cruises on Friday when the Dream returns. The Fantasy and Magic return on Saturday.

 

[AquaDame]

The NHL will announce a suspension tomorrow.

https://media.nhl.com/public/news/13909
If I had to bet, Disney will announce they are suspending cruises on Friday when the Dream returns. The Fantasy and Magic return on Saturday.

Why do you think they'd wait for a ship to return..? (Just curious). I'd think they wouldn't wait to notify the guests expecting to embark that day.

 

[Husker Mike]

I think the announcement comes Friday morning, before the Dream begins boarding. Otherwise, there would be a question as to why you are leaving the Fantasy and Magic out there any longer.

 

[Intr3pid]

If a child has cold like symptoms I don't see doctors using extremely limited tests on that child.

Neither on anyone else. There is no evidence though that this is what transpired behind the discrepancy in numbers. Like I said, it's a theory - just like one of healthier lungs, or a more natural immune system, etc.

The CDC which I have already outlined previously. I am not sure why you keep going in circles.

"There have been very few reports of the clinical outcomes for children with COVID-19 to date. Limited reports from China suggest that children with confirmed COVID-19 may present with mild symptoms "

Nothing in here tells us that CDC believes that such cases were never recorded in the system. How else would they be able to identify a case of mild symptoms as really one of COVID-19? The way to read it is, that they observed cases of mild symptoms, but the testing revealed them to be actually those of COVID-19.

Swartzberg also stresses: “We don’t even know for certain that (children) are getting less disease. There are less than two months of data. We don’t know, in children and adults, how many are infected and don’t even have any symptoms. There could be a lot of us walking around with (what seems like) colds who have this, or they may be asymptomatic.” That, of course, would make the disease and death rates even lower than already thought.

All he is saying is that we don't have enough clinical data. And that may never come through. You may be following this from January, but I have followed most prior outbreaks - incl. MERS and SARS. Little clinical data comes through, as once the outbreak is contained, resources are diverted elsewhere. That's what CDC refers to as the "limited publications", yet that doesn't prevent one from seeing a simple fact: that children in certain past outbreaks were not infected in the same way as adults. CDC is confident enough of it to state so in that COVID-19 FAQ - yes, with usual disclaimers.

The only thing most seem to agree on is that Children are at a decreased risk of death.

Anyone who believes so is using the same dataset as that for the cases. There's no other data.

Let's dig deeper.

-----------------------------

We want a clinical study where both adults and kids are exposed in a very controlled setting to this virus and the infection rates are observed. The Shenzhen CDC research takes a step towards it, though IMO needs much more data to conclude something for the broader population. But - it's a good step.

Until we get such a study done, we won't know of the relative controlled infection rates. We don't have such data. (We probably won't have one.) The conclusion of such a study will tell us about the risk of infection across ages fully controlling for everything else. Agreed!

BUT - we do have COVID-19 infection rates among broader (Hubei) children population - and these rates appear to be significantly different from those observed for adults. This is not a controlled study, so it's not clinical. Yet it tells us that, in an everyday non-controlled living environment, children seem to be at a lower risk of contracting this virus than the adults - at least children in Hubei/China.

Here are some of the possible reasons again (which we aren't controlling):
-- Children may have healthier lungs or other natural features resisting infection;
-- Children may have a more natural/less stressed immune system;
-- Children may be more active or have a lifestyle preventing lingering around in infected places;
-- Children may be more protected and cared for by their parents and others;
-- Children may interact socially in protected spaces with a priority for keeping healthy;
-- Fewer testing kits may be available to set aside for children/milder cases (as you surmise);
-- etc, etc.

And in all honesty, it's a combination of several such reasons. We don't know how/why/which, but it does seem to indicate a lower risk for children in an everyday/non-controlled setting.

------------------------

Now, compare with CDC's Ebola risk assessment:
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/diseases/ebola
"For most travelers, there is a very low risk for Ebola. Travelers who have close contact with nonhuman primates (such as monkeys, chimpanzees, and gorillas) or bats in tropical Africa are at risk. "

Do we think that if we send a European or American traveler to West Africa and get them to closely interact with monkeys and gorillas, the risk will remain low? Of course not. CDC disclaims that assessment in the next sentence. Yet, they don't need a controlled clinical study to come up with a low risk assessment for most travelers. "Limited studies" are adequate enough to make a broader/everyday risk assessment.

If you expose children and adults similarly to COVID-19 in a controlled setting, you may get a very different risk assessment than if you do so for most children living their everyday lives with their families.

-------------------------

Lastly, CDC doesn't have a formal risk assessment for COVID-19 yet, as this is still unfolding. They want to err on the side of caution and have everyone take care. The last major Ebola outbreak, on the other hand, is at least 5 years old - and now well-contained - and that risk assessment took a while to come out as well.

 

[bunnm09]

I think the announcement comes Friday morning, before the Dream begins boarding. Otherwise, there would be a question as to why you are leaving the Fantasy and Magic out there any longer.

Then you’d imagine they’d announce Thursday and not have people showing up to the port Friday expecting to get on a cruise

 

[smmco]

And Tom Hanks and his wife tested positive for the virus. If you just want to finish the night with some extra misery.

Why would that make anyone miserable?

 

[Intr3pid]

Basically, Americas are now quarantined as far as flights are concerned. Asian flights were already cut out.

Individual cities/states are rolling out their own bans on gatherings, what's open, etc. Federal government needs to take leadership here - like the Italian/Chinese have. Interest rate cuts/Financial stimulus to support the stock market isn't going to stop this virus.

 

[sethschroeder]

Like I said, it's a theory - just like one of healthier lungs, or a more natural immune system, etc.

Just like kids not being infected with the virus as often as adults is a theory.

Its all a very foggy theory at this point and there was and is a shortage of COVID-19 tests which does hamper the ability to prove out one theory or another.

If you want to say kids are way less likely to carry the virus I won't stop you as you have thoroughly exhausted me. I personally will not say such a thing until testing is ramped up and kids are coming back with a larger portion of negative tests than other age groups.

 

[Intr3pid]

Could a psychic have predicted COVID-19 more than a decade ago? The book was published in 2008.



Some fact-checking here...

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/sylvia-browne-coronavirus/

 

[AquaDame]

Looks like the CDC recommendation is for ALL foreign travel now, not just via cruise ship.

https://apnews.com/6624f3e73ae7e94ca867d01caca8cffd?utm_medium=AP
"The State Department followed Trump’s remarks by issuing an extraordinary global health advisory cautioning U.S. citizens to “reconsider travel abroad” due to the virus and associated quarantines and restrictions."

https://travel.state.gov/content/tr...ert-global-level-3-health-advisory-issue.html
I'll edit the title of this thread....