Surprising facts about DC 2002 point charts

[PamOKW]

I know that this year has low discounts, but predictions are this will continue next year as well. I just tested out Morphi's formula (in a rough fashion).

A current discount rates for a 1 bedroom at OKW is $244. The Poly Waterview is $229. Weekday point cost is 18. Point cost should be 17. (This is not factoring in the higher point costs for Fri-Sa). Next year in October (when these discounts are available) the DC asks 44 points for this room. (The current DC cost is 25 points).

Some thing is very wrong with the way DVC has established this schedule.

 

[morphi]

PamOKW, is that Poly Water View rate of $229 their actual discounted rate or their rack rate? To understand their 2002 point charts, the comparison to OKW's $244 should be based on a 10% discount (I think) of Poly's RACK RATE. That's actually my theory about what is wrong: DVC pays DC resorts based on fixed (and small) discounts off of rack rates.

Also, I think two more factors need to be added to the point cost of the Poly rate:

1. The cost of the probability that DVC will not be able to rent out that OKW 1 bedroom.

2. A premium that DVC is charging for the DC program in 2002 to try to recover DC losses from 2001.

Unfortunately, I do not know how to value these two items.

And I agree with you that something is very wrong with the DC schedule.

 

[JonHM]

I agree that that would be a good approach: definitely get the message out there, but without the extreme risk of losing the program altogether. Who knows what goes on behind the scenes there, though?

 

[Dean]

I understand how DVC values the points on a break even standpoint and I think they should continue to do so. My point is that they must negotiate a better rate up front and do a better job utilizing the points they have to rent out. My reference to a point comparision was what I think is a reasonable trade off for me. If it's not in that range, I won't utilize the program unless there's other items thrown in like park admission, free breakfast, etc. Since I'd prefer not to have daily maid service, this doesn't add to the value to me though I understand it adds to the cost.

Frankly, I'd personally rather see the program evaportate than have DVC present an insulting option. I must say I was insulted everytime I looked at the old program so guess how I feel now. So if putting the preasure on DVC to make it better or dump it has the latter affect, I am prepared for that and would not look back. I do realize that not everyone feels as I do and they must vote their conscience.

 

[PamOKW]

Morphi -- I did that kind of rushed earlier. I had been trying to think about how to do a comparison and when I saw your formula at the same time I just started plugging in numbers. I realize discount to discount isn't the correct way to do it but it shows the incredible premium they are asking us to cover. The AKL rate is a discounted rate. If I have time I'm going to see what other numbers I can find to think about.

It looks like 45% discounts are not uncommon so having DVC cover a difference of 35% is pretty extreme.

 

[PamOKW]

I've played around with the numbers. There are so many variables it's hard to tell what they have in mind. However, using Regular Season for the resorts and Choice season for the points needed for a one-bedroom and then using variations on rack rate to rack rate; discount to rack rate, etc. there is nothing that even comes close to the amount of points being asked for on next year's charts.