Springtime Surprise Weekend 2024 (April 18-21)

[Let's Get Kronk]

I’m “only” doing the 10K, but seeing the forecast for race weekend, I’ve done my last few runs in the highest heat of the day… to be better acclimated for being in the parks. Race morning will be a little cool for me!

I intentionally did my last "long" run on Sunday in the heat of the day here in Dallas. It was 83 degrees and full sun and I was definitely slowing down earlier than usual. I think the races are going to feel like a breeze compared to that. Haha.

 

[1lilspark]

5K, 400xx

Any idea what corral that entails?

I can live with dead last lol

I’m 407xx & my friend is 413xx for the 5k (fwiw last year my friend was 414xx and was coral C of E)

10k I’m 308xx

 

[Ellie_]

302xx for the 10K for me!

Has anyone figured out how to guess your corral based on bib number yet?

 

[KellyKateri]

27xx for the 10 miler, been trying to figure out where that puts me

 

[1lilspark]

302xx for the 10K for me!

Has anyone figured out how to guess your corral based on bib number yet?

I keep track of what I’ve got in past weekends to help me gage things I was 31xxx in November and was C fwiw

 

[WhereInFlorida]

Where are the pace groups listed?

 

[Baloo in MI]

Yup. We went to Epcot on Saturday and it felt SCORCHING.

10 on the UV index. The last few months have been glorious for FL running in the morning, but things are changing this week.

Say it isn’t so!!!! It got to the low 70’s here today in mid-Michigan and I thought I was going to melt during my run…

 

[Bree]

Where are the pace groups listed?

 

[Naomeri]

You’re packed already?! My laundry isn’t even finished yet 27 hours until takeoff

I have finished the laundry, and the packing! 17 and half hours until takeoff!

 

[PrincessV]

Say it isn’t so!!!! It got to the low 70’s here today in mid-Michigan and I thought I was going to melt during my run…

Oh Baloo… I’m torn between wanting for you to be mentally prepared and not wanting to make you faint! I’ll leave it up to you…

Spoiler: Surprise! Forecast Highs…

I’m looking at highs in the mid-90s, which is likely to mean Feels Likes near 100. BUT high 60s in the overnights/mornings and it’ll still be dark for the races, at least!

 

[The Expert]

Those lows are still lower than our highs here, but the humidity hasn't been terrible, so hoping the mornings are somewhat comfortable.

 

[anneeb]

I'm 235xx for challenge and CrD. I put in lowest pace without POT.

 

[The Expert]

Runner tracking is live! https://track.rtrt.me/e/WDW-STS-2024

 

[anneeb]

My friend is only doing the 5 K. Is there any information yet on bib number vs corral for the 5K?

 

[Naomeri]

My friend is only doing the 5 K. Is there any information yet on bib number vs corral for the 5K?

Nope, the 5K is harder to predict than other races. We’ll all find out in about 48 hours

 

[fatmanatee]

My friend is only doing the 5 K. Is there any information yet on bib number vs corral for the 5K?

We don't exactly have information per se, everything being posted is basically trying to figure out a correlation based on bib number and pace estimate. Doing a quick scan of what's been posted, I don't think anyone has posted both their bib number and pace estimate for JUST the 5k bib so we don't have anything to work with.

TBH the best guess IMO is to just use your pace estimate as a guide. Quicker estimates get earlier corrals, it'll be slightly complicated if too many people put down early estimates and they have to split the groups up a bit.

 

[DopeyBadger]

The following is from the runner tracking:

Challenge - 7172 bibs (20001-27172)
10 miler solo - 7663 bibs (1-7663)
10k solo - 6605 (30001-36605)

Total 10 mile bibs - 14835 bibs
Total 10k bibs - 14268 bibs

*As always, not all bib numbers are assigned (I ran into more non-assigned bibs than usual). So the numbers above are the highest end and not completely representative. Not all bibs will show up on race day. It's usually around 80% of the bibs finish the race, and the vast majority is from DNS (did not start). So expect about 11,600 finishers or so.

 

[DopeyBadger]

Here's the summarized information for you all. I'm going to be really curious on the Challenge bibs. There are several non-POT bibs in the 21xxx-23xxx range and yet Club runDisney Platinum are in 235xx-238xx range. Usually the CRD are slotted at the back end of the last POTs and placed in the last POT corral. The 23xxx HM of 2:05 looks off, but my calculator puts that at 1:33:49 10 miler equivalent and outside the POT range (sub 1:30 10 miler).

5k
400xx - No info
407xx
413xx

10k
3011x - No info
308xx
31XXX


10 miler
1xx - 10k POT 49ish min
3xx. - 1:29 10 miler POT
12XX - fastest non-pot
261X - fastest time that did not require a POT
27xx -
273X - fastest time that did not require a POT
34xx - no POT
36XX. 12 mm estimated pace.
6162 - a 2:01-2:15 estimate
66XX - 2:16-2:30 estimate,

Challenge
201XX - 10 miler POT 1:20:51
202xx - POT was a 3:58:08 marathon
202XX - POT is 1:53:32 HM
20XXX - POT was a 1:54:29 HM
202xx - POT 1:55 HM
20340 - 53:07 10K POT
20XXX. Put the fastest non-POT estimate
213xx - No info
216xx - fastest non-POT
219xx, no POT, selected 1:30-1:45
220XX - No POT, no club. Selected the fastest non POT time (can't remember what it was)
22xxx - no POT
23xxx - 2:05HM POT
231XX - No info
234XX - 10K POT of 1:00:18
23xxx - CRD
235xx - CrD
238XX (CrD platinum)
238XX (CrD platinum)
256XX for me. No POT submitted.
257XX here. No POT submitted.
264xx. - estimated finish of 2:16-2:30

 

[PrincessV]

I'm going to be really curious on the Challenge bibs. There are several non-POT bibs in the 21xxx-23xxx range and yet Club runDisney Platinum are in 235xx-238xx range. Usually the CRD are slotted at the back end of the last POTs and placed in the last POT corral. The 23xxx HM of 2:05 looks off, but my calculator puts that at 1:33:49 10 miler equivalent and outside the POT range (sub 1:30 10 miler).

This tracks with a micro cluster among some of my friends, in which 3 people with no POT and no Club rD have 20xxx-21xxx bib numbers and a Club rD person has a 23xxx. They’re quite mystified!

 

[DopeyBadger]

This tracks with a micro cluster among some of my friends, in which 3 people with no POT and no Club rD have 20xxx-21xxx bib numbers and a Club rD person has a 23xxx. They’re quite mystified!

Yep, I'm in agreement. Something is "different" about this data set than the last several that I've done the same exercise on (or at least my memory of them). Added to that the fact that I ran into more unassigned bibs when using the runner tracking system than I normally do. Again, just "different" than normal. I'm curious, and will be interested to hear about everyone's experience once you actually pick bibs up.