Should we upgrade to AP tickets?

[Diswizard]

I'll get right to the facts to be considered: All facts below are for 2 adults.
1- Trip planned for late Nov 2021 with 2 planned park days each adult.
2- Trip planned for early May 2022 with 6 planned park days each adult.
3- Possible 3rd trip before 11/22 with minimum 1 and maximum 4 park days each adult.
4- Currently holding two very old 10 day no expiration park hoppers with 8 days remaining
5 - Also currently have two 6 day park hoppers purchased pre-covid (trip cancelled) that we paid $1076 for 2 tickets through UT and has not been used at all.
6- We are DVC owners.

Trying to decide at what point it makes more sense to upgrade ticket in #5 above to an AP. What do you expert math folks think we should do? Part of me wants to hold onto those no expiration days as they seem to be "making" pretty good interest every time Disney increases their prices. But, we are approaching 70 years old and I'm not sure how many more opportunities we will have to make these trips. So..., if they are never used we stand to lose out altogether on those tickets. Are there other considerations to take into account that an AP gives us that we don't already enjoy as DVC owners, etc? I really appreciate the help. Thanks.

 

[Marionnette]

I'll get right to the facts to be considered: All facts below are for 2 adults.
1- Trip planned for late Nov 2021 with 2 planned park days each adult.
2- Trip planned for early May 2022 with 6 planned park days each adult.
3- Possible 3rd trip before 11/22 with minimum 1 and maximum 4 park days each adult.
4- Currently holding two very old 10 day no expiration park hoppers with 8 days remaining
5 - Also currently have two 6 day park hoppers purchased pre-covid (trip cancelled) that we paid $1076 for 2 tickets through UT and has not been used at all.
6- We are DVC owners.

Trying to decide at what point it makes more sense to upgrade ticket in #5 above to an AP. What do you expert math folks think we should do? Part of me wants to hold onto those no expiration days as they seem to be "making" pretty good interest every time Disney increases their prices. But, we are approaching 70 years old and I'm not sure how many more opportunities we will have to make these trips. So..., if they are never used we stand to lose out altogether on those tickets. Are there other considerations to take into account that an AP gives us that we don't already enjoy as DVC owners, etc? I really appreciate the help. Thanks.

I hear where you're coming from. DVC owners in our early to late 60's here. I have a folio full of unused tickets, some partially-used which date back to pre-MYW days and 4 Gold AP vouchers. Who knows how many more years we have left to travel comfortably? I've started to use that stash of tickets and activated an AP voucher this past April.

Looking at the numbers, a new Sorcerer AP will cost $899 + tax @6.5%. Two of them come to $1915 when tax is included. Your 6-day hoppers are worth at least what you paid for them so the most you can expect to pay OOP to upgrade to 2 Sorcerer APs is $839.

But here's the rub: Sorcerer APs have a block out period around Thanksgiving which runs from 11/24-11/27, inclusive, this year. If any of your November dates fall in that window, having a Sorcerer AP will do you no good. If that's the case, it changes the math.

Now, if you do not upgrade to an AP at all, you could use 2 days off of the no-expiry tickets for this November's trip. Then the 6-day ticket could be applied to the May 2022 trip, keeping in mind that with date based ticketing, it could possibly cost you more to change the valid dates. In May 2022, 6-day hoppers will cost between $99-$106 + tax per day, depending on when you go. Minimum price tag is $633, maximum is $677. Assuming no price bridging (somewhat big assumption since they are tickets purchased from a 3rd party), you will pay $95-$138 to convert those 6-day hopper tickets. OOP cost to upgrade 2 tickets could be as much as $278.

Then, for the 4 days that you might return for in November 2022, you could use 4 more days from the no-expiry tickets.

Under that scenario, you keep your OOP costs to a minimum but you burn 6 of the 8 remaining days of your no-expiry ticket.

DVC and AP discounts pretty much overlap. There are some restaurants that honor DVC but not APs and visa versa. If you stay offsite, DVC is not going to get you free parking at theme parks but an AP will. Merchandise discounts are equal most of the time but can change to benefit APs more than DVC. An AP will also get you room discounts (if you run out of points) but owning DVC won't. There is AP exclusive merchandise at different times of the year and sometimes AP preview events like they just had for Remy (but DVC had one, too).

My advice would be to start using the tickets that you have. There's a lot of things you can do with $839 instead of buying APs.

 

[Meglen]

We are doing one 8 day park hopper trip and another 7 day park hopper trip and doing the math we saved 200$ swapping to ap. So I think around 13-14 days is the break point.

 

[afan]

We are doing one 8 day park hopper trip and another 7 day park hopper trip and doing the math we saved 200$ swapping to ap. So I think around 13-14 days is the break point.

Touring plans had a blog post about it the other day. It totally depends on when you are going and which AP you can get. The dates matter more than the total number of days due to the cost of the tickets.

They've done the math, I'd find their post and look at the charts to figure it out.

 

[Meglen]

Touring plans had a blog post about it the other day. It totally depends on when you are going and which AP you can get. The dates matter more than the total number of days due to the cost of the tickets.

They've done the math, I'd find their post and look at the charts to figure it out.

When I priced mine I just fake bought them and got prices that way so my numbers are correct. But you are right my case may not be everyones.

 

[afan]

When I priced mine I just fake bought them and got prices that way so my numbers are correct. But you are right my case may not be everyones.

Two high season 4 or 5 day trips could make it make sense depending on which AP you can get. If it's low season you need more days.

Your way of pricing it makes sense so you are comparing correctly. But also need to take into account tickets bought from UT or elsewhere and discounts you can get on Disney gc. Not as easy to figure it all out now.

I had a 9 day hopper for my trip last week and doing a 5 day hopper in May it wouldn't have made sense. I'd have had to get a room discount to make it work as anything else has me spending money, merch and dining discounts. I generally only eat qs. So more merch or a 3rd trip to make the math work made me decide that may trip will be nowhere or somewhere else.

 

[twincruisers]

Payback can be wildly different depending on what tickets you get. I just did a sample one of the days I'm working on and the Incredi-pass that I'm eligible for can be paid back in 7x 1-day PH+ or 2.3x 10-day PH+ tickets. Here's a sample of what I calculated on pay-back for AP's in terms of days from a 1-day and 10-day as sample of a min-max scenarios.

edit: Take this chart as a data-point, it is not an authoritative source for all users.


Side trivia, the 10-day PH+ ticket is cheaper than the 10-day PH ticket on UT. Go figure!

 

[Meglen]

Payback can be wildly different depending on what tickets you get. I just did a sample one of the days I'm working on and the Incredi-pass that I'm eligible for can be paid back in 7x 1-day PH+ or 2.3x 10-day PH+ tickets. Here's a sample of what I calculated on pay-back for AP's in terms of days from a 1-day and 10-day as sample of a min-max scenarios.
View attachment 606664

Side trivia, the 10-day PH+ ticket is cheaper than the 10-day PH ticket on UT. Go figure!

Parden me being special but how do I read this? the what does the numbers across from the days mean? 11.7 1 day tickets I understand but 25?

 

[twincruisers]

Parden me being special but how do I read this? the what does the numbers across from the days mean? 11.7 1 day tickets I understand but 25?

Sorry, I should explain, I took each ticket type and divided the price by the number of days. I then divided the AP price by the average daily price to come up with the number of days needed to break even on the AP price. Everything is tax included. My ticket prices came from a discount broker (UT) on the days I was looking for.

so the way to read the chart is to see the ticket type, like 1-day base park ticket under Sorcerer shows, 8.1. That means a little over 8 single day base tickets to offset the Sorcerer pass cost.

for a 10-day PH+ ticket it would take 22.9 days equivalent (or 2.3 10-day PH+ passes) for an Incredi-pass.
‘I hope that makes more sense now.

 

[afan]

Sorry, I should explain, I took each ticket type and divided the price by the number of days. I then divided the AP price by the average daily price to come up with the number of days needed to break even on the AP price. Everything is tax included. My ticket prices came from a discount broker (UT) on the days I was looking for.

so the way to read the chart is to see the ticket type, like 1-day base park ticket under Sorcerer shows, 8.1. That means a little over 8 single day base tickets to offset the Sorcerer pass cost.

for a 10-day PH+ ticket it would take 22.9 days equivalent (or 2.3 10-day PH+ passes) for an Incredi-pass.
‘I hope that makes more sense now.

But again with date based pricing this is what works for your dates but it may not work for someone else's dates. Were you looking at low, high etc?

 

[twincruisers]

But again with date based pricing this is what works for your dates but it may not work for someone else's dates. Were you looking at low, high etc?

No just my own payback calculation as a sample for everyone. I was getting 10-day anyways, so I did 1-day tickets as the min counter to the 10-day max.

 

[afan]

No just my own payback calculation as a sample for everyone. I was getting 10-day anyways, so I did 1-day tickets as the min counter to the 10-day max.

Right but if you are using peak pricing and I'm going during low it's not the same breakdown. That's why I asked what you used for pricing.

It's why what touring plans did is helpful, they broke it down by each ticket price structure on their charts so you can figure it out.

 

[Diswizard]

I hear where you're coming from. DVC owners in our early to late 60's here. I have a folio full of unused tickets, some partially-used which date back to pre-MYW days and 4 Gold AP vouchers. Who knows how many more years we have left to travel comfortably? I've started to use that stash of tickets and activated an AP voucher this past April.

Looking at the numbers, a new Sorcerer AP will cost $899 + tax @6.5%. Two of them come to $1915 when tax is included. Your 6-day hoppers are worth at least what you paid for them so the most you can expect to pay OOP to upgrade to 2 Sorcerer APs is $839.

But here's the rub: Sorcerer APs have a block out period around Thanksgiving which runs from 11/24-11/27, inclusive, this year. If any of your November dates fall in that window, having a Sorcerer AP will do you no good. If that's the case, it changes the math.

Now, if you do not upgrade to an AP at all, you could use 2 days off of the no-expiry tickets for this November's trip. Then the 6-day ticket could be applied to the May 2022 trip, keeping in mind that with date based ticketing, it could possibly cost you more to change the valid dates. In May 2022, 6-day hoppers will cost between $99-$106 + tax per day, depending on when you go. Minimum price tag is $633, maximum is $677. Assuming no price bridging (somewhat big assumption since they are tickets purchased from a 3rd party), you will pay $95-$138 to convert those 6-day hopper tickets. OOP cost to upgrade 2 tickets could be as much as $278.

Then, for the 4 days that you might return for in November 2022, you could use 4 more days from the no-expiry tickets.

Under that scenario, you keep your OOP costs to a minimum but you burn 6 of the 8 remaining days of your no-expiry ticket.

DVC and AP discounts pretty much overlap. There are some restaurants that honor DVC but not APs and visa versa. If you stay offsite, DVC is not going to get you free parking at theme parks but an AP will. Merchandise discounts are equal most of the time but can change to benefit APs more than DVC. An AP will also get you room discounts (if you run out of points) but owning DVC won't. There is AP exclusive merchandise at different times of the year and sometimes AP preview events like they just had for Remy (but DVC had one, too).

My advice would be to start using the tickets that you have. There's a lot of things you can do with $839 instead of buying APs.

Thanks for your input. Your logic seems sound to me and I really appreciate the AP vs DVC summary. Our 11/21 trip starts the Sunday after Thanksgiving so all you have stated applies. We were already leaning toward using the no expire tickets for the 2 day trip and after reading your reply I think that is what we will do.

 

[twincruisers]

Right but if you are using peak pricing and I'm going during low it's not the same breakdown. That's why I asked what you used for pricing.

It's why what touring plans did is helpful, they broke it down by each ticket price structure on their charts so you can figure it out.

No doubt each person needs to do their own calculation to see what their payback period is. I was just presenting mine as a data-point, not to be gospel for all users. Sorry if that wasn't clear.

I also read through the touring plans blog post a few days, but that was focused on FL residents and also took a limited view by using an average of 1-day tickets to calculate payback and not the full chart. So it really didn't do anything for me, but if it works for you, I'm glad you were the target audience!

 

[melissalovesfigment]

We live in Indiana and have APs. Normally, I check for a combo of Southwest flights and AP discounted rooms and we would fly for a 3 night weekend at Pop Century every other month when prices aligned. Not so many discounts now but I still like having it. We recently rented a last minute "dedicated reservation" room from Davids DVC rental for $10 per point. I liked having that flexibility to jump on that reservation. We hope to find another one of those last-minute deals in December or February.