September Crowds?

[Riss]

Maybe they decided to update the predictions after they saw that the MNSSHP on 9/2 sold out?

Our visit in September 2018 was VERY quiet, and they were predicting 5-6 crowd levels. Now this was pre-pandemic, but historically September is not a great time for most people to visit. Kids have just started school, people are saving up for their holiday travel, etc. Regardless of what you encounter, have a great time no matter what!

We also went in September 2018 and were surprised at how empty it felt for us. We had mostly gone during the Christmas season and attributed it to that

 

[Jess.stw]

Crowd calendars are only predictions and can greatly vary in their accuracy -- sometimes they are correct and sometimes they are very very wrong. I wouldn't read too much into it, whether it be now or even pre-pandemic.

Just look at the 4th of July. Everyone was expecting large crowds that day, and the actual holiday was relatively quiet compared to years past. And it wasn't until after the 4th that things picked up. Who could have predicted that?

Our visit in September 2018 was VERY quiet, and they were predicting 5-6 crowd levels. Now this was pre-pandemic, but historically September is not a great time for most people to visit. Kids have just started school, people are saving up for their holiday travel, etc. Regardless of what you encounter, have a great time no matter what!

Yeah that is exactly why we chose September. My husband doesn't do well with crowds. Fingers crossed.

 

[KristiMc]

I got the email about the changes also. I was not that surprised though, almost all DVC resorts are booked full for my stay (9/9 - 9/15).

 

[Threehearts]

I got the email about the changes also. I was not that surprised though, almost all DVC resorts are booked full for my stay (9/9 - 9/15).

 

[Threehearts]

The Dolphin was wide open but now is sold out for a good part of September. I was planning on 2 park days and 3 days by the pool in relative quiet (you could find a chair). I will be adjusting my expectations during my early September visit..

 

[Lilsia]

Those crowd predictors are just guesses anyway. No one can know how busy it will be. But we have been saying this all year, that the parks will be busy pretty much all the time for the foreseeable future. There really is no slow time anymore. Go and have fun. There is nothing you can do about the crowds so no point in stressing about it.

 

[Pyxie]

Disney is busy all year now, so I wouldn't really base the dates of a trip around that. (I'll be there the same week btw.)

 

[parasail_of_congress]

Those crowd predictors are just guesses anyway. No one can know how busy it will be. But we have been saying this all year, that the parks will be busy pretty much all the time for the foreseeable future. There really is no slow time anymore. Go and have fun. There is nothing you can do about the crowds so no point in stressing about it.

At least for TouringPlans, they aren't just guessing. They have mountains of data that they are using to assess and estimate the crowd. Yes, it's possible that the predictions are wrong, but they are as accurate as they can be with the data that they have. Crowd calendars are one tool that visitors can use to determine the best time to visit the park. My family is choosing to go to WDW in August versus Christmas because it will be less crowded.

Also, Disney knows how busy it will be because of the reservation system, so definitely someone knows how busy it will be!

 

[Lilsia]

At least for TouringPlans, they aren't just guessing. They have mountains of data that they are using to assess and estimate the crowd. Yes, it's possible that the predictions are wrong, but they are as accurate as they can be with the data that they have. Crowd calendars are one tool that visitors can use to determine the best time to visit the park. My family is choosing to go to WDW in August versus Christmas because it will be less crowded.

Also, Disney knows how busy it will be because of the reservation system, so definitely someone knows how busy it will be!

That was true before shutdown. But we have never experienced what we have with the parks being closed for so long. Like it or not, this is not the "same old" like it used to be. There is no way that they can predict what things will be like now. They are only guessing since they have no "data" for a situation like this. What we have seen in this past year is that it is always busy now with a few ebbs and flows. This is nothing like what it was before shutdown. Disney never releases attendance and they do not put out their own crowd predictor. And of course August is not as busy as Christmas. LOL

 

[focusondisney]

That was true before shutdown. But we have never experienced what we have with the parks being closed for so long. Like it or not, this is not the "same old" like it used to be. There is no way that they can predict what things will be like now. They are only guessing since they have no "data" for a situation like this. What we have seen in this past year is that it is always busy now with a few ebbs and flows. This is nothing like what it was before shutdown. Disney never releases attendance and they do not put out their own crowd predictor. And of course August is not as busy as Christmas. LOL

Agree. And precovid was also pre park reservations. No one knows what numbers Disney is using for those. Or an explanation for why some parks fill up, then open up again. When a park‘s reservations are full, you would expect TPs numbers to be at a “10”. But thats not the case. So TP’s data is very limited regarding The current state of the parks.

 

[grapefruitjellybean]

I just got my update emails this weekend. I was hoping for 1s and 2s but I'm not surprised.

 

[parasail_of_congress]

That was true before shutdown. But we have never experienced what we have with the parks being closed for so long. Like it or not, this is not the "same old" like it used to be. There is no way that they can predict what things will be like now. They are only guessing since they have no "data" for a situation like this. What we have seen in this past year is that it is always busy now with a few ebbs and flows. This is nothing like what it was before shutdown. Disney never releases attendance and they do not put out their own crowd predictor. And of course August is not as busy as Christmas. LOL

You are confusing "guessing" with "best estimate with the given data." If it was just guessing, then anyone could pick a random day and have no idea what the crowd would be like, which as you have pointed out, is inaccurate.

I think sometimes people on this board forget that there is a large percentage of people that actually have no idea what the crowds are like at Disney World. The crowd calendars, even if their predictions aren't perfect, and even when the data is skewed due to covid and other circumstances, still can provide useful information to people who do not pay attention to Disney World like some of us. I don't think anyone is suggesting that people should 100 percent rely on the crowd calendars for planning though - not now and not before covid.

 

[parasail_of_congress]

Agree. And precovid was also pre park reservations. No one knows what numbers Disney is using for those. Or an explanation for why some parks fill up, then open up again. When a park‘s reservations are full, you would expect TPs numbers to be at a “10”. But thats not the case. So TP’s data is very limited regarding The current state of the parks.

TP's numbers are relying on wait times and not actual attendance. They are still using the same data that they've always been using, but what is not necessarily being factored into the formula are other factors like staffing, domestic and international travel, etc. If you check ThrillData, you'll see that the past few weekends have actually been "less crowded" than weekdays, which leads me to believe that it could be due to more staffing on weekends. This is also evident when looking at reservation availability. Disney is utilizing fewer people for historically less crowded days, which makes the crowd calendar a little chaotic and less predictable. But the thing is, the data is the data - people have a perception of what's more or less crowded if they are there, but if you look specifically at wait times, TP is pretty accurate, all things considered.

 

[Jennasis]

Our beloved week after Labor Day is no longer the bastion of quiet it was years ago. It will be more crowded rhan it used to be but manageable.

 

[Lilsia]

You are confusing "guessing" with "best estimate with the given data." If it was just guessing, then anyone could pick a random day and have no idea what the crowd would be like, which as you have pointed out, is inaccurate.

I think sometimes people on this board forget that there is a large percentage of people that actually have no idea what the crowds are like at Disney World. The crowd calendars, even if their predictions aren't perfect, and even when the data is skewed due to covid and other circumstances, still can provide useful information to people who do not pay attention to Disney World like some of us. I don't think anyone is suggesting that people should 100 percent rely on the crowd calendars for planning though - not now and not before covid.

I am not confusing it. I am saying that they don't have enough data to make their predictions. How can they? We have never had a time where we were in this situation. Where are they getting this supposed data from? Last year is not this year and things were different. There is literally no other time that they can get any data from to make these "predictions", they are in fact, guessing. I am sorry if you are not understanding this. But I don't know how else to say it. I am saying that these crowd predictors are misleading people, by evidence of this very thread. The OP relied on one of these and is now upset, with good reason. They claim to have knowledge and "data" on predicting crowds and they really don't, not in the situation that we are in now. But that is how they make money.

 

[focusondisney]

TP's numbers are relying on wait times and not actual attendance. They are still using the same data that they've always been using, but what is not necessarily being factored into the formula are other factors like staffing, domestic and international travel, etc. If you check ThrillData, you'll see that the past few weekends have actually been "less crowded" than weekdays, which leads me to believe that it could be due to more staffing on weekends. This is also evident when looking at reservation availability. Disney is utilizing fewer people for historically less crowded days, which makes the crowd calendar a little chaotic and less predictable. But the thing is, the data is the data - people have a perception of what's more or less crowded if they are there, but if you look specifically at wait times, TP is pretty accurate, all things considered.

I’ve had a TP subscription for years. I know exactly how it works & what they analyze.

 

[parasail_of_congress]

I’ve had a TP subscription for years. I know exactly how it works & what they analyze.

If that's the case, then you would know this is not true - "When a park‘s reservations are full, you would expect TPs numbers to be at a “10”." TP numbers are based on wait times, not only the attendance or park reservations, which Disney can manipulate to be whatever they want due to staffing or any other reason.

 

[melking23]

The Dolphin was wide open but now is sold out for a good part of September. I was planning on 2 park days and 3 days by the pool in relative quiet (you could find a chair). I will be adjusting my expectations during my early September visit..

The Dolphin is doing maintenance during the lower crowd period and removed remaining rooms from inventory. They’ve already started removing balconies to replace them. I had Dolphin booked for Labor Day week but cancelled it just last night because I booked Swan instead (at a rate less than Dolphin which was a fantastic rate when I booked it forever ago). Mostly I cancelled because I don’t want to hear cutting and grinding of metal when we’re trying to take a midday break/nap in our room.

I’m glad TP increased their crowd calendars. It’ll help keep away the last minute bookings seeing the 5’s & 6’s instead of 1’s & 2’s. I believe my week will be a normal, very low crowd week regardless of what TP says. Someone mentioned on a board yesterday that while the ride wait times appear to be consistent from the week prior, the actual crowds in the parks are much lower. Disney always inflates wait times anyway. I choose to be optimistic that the crowds will be low for my trip although they’ve been wild until this point.

 

[grapefruitjellybean]

The Dolphin is doing maintenance during the lower crowd period and removed remaining rooms from inventory. They’ve already started removing balconies to replace them. I had Dolphin booked for Labor Day week but cancelled it just last night because I booked Swan instead (at a rate less than Dolphin which was a fantastic rate when I booked it forever ago). Mostly I cancelled because I don’t want to hear cutting and grinding of metal when we’re trying to take a midday break/nap in our room.

I’m glad TP increased their crowd calendars. It’ll help keep away the last minute bookings seeing the 5’s & 6’s instead of 1’s & 2’s. I believe my week will be a normal, very low crowd week regardless of what TP says. Someone mentioned on a board yesterday that while the ride wait times appear to be consistent from the week prior, the actual crowds in the parks are much lower. Disney always inflates wait times anyway. I choose to be optimistic that the crowds will be low for my trip although they’ve been wild until this point.

When are you going?

 

[StageTek]

It's a fact that Disney is busy all year now. But September has always been less busy. The TP 4's and 5's are unusual for September.