ROFR Thread July to Sept 2019 *PLEASE SEE FIRST POST FOR INSTRUCTIONS & FORMATTING TOOL*

[TonyaG83]

What was yours? I'm suspecting you found a better deal than mine given how well you did with the PVB.



That's what I told myself. I can rent it out. The value goes up! Cheaper than renting the extra points if I need them. It'll eventually break even. The prices keep going up. Now I'm staring at that upfront total cost!!

This all started by me going - hmm. I wonder if I can get to stay in some nicer places for what it would cost to stay in Art of Animation....so much for that!

That is exactly what brought on my Poly buy. I needed to add on to my fall vacation and I didn’t have enough points. I’m staying at AoA for 3 days and it’s costing me more than I’d like for a value. I’d rather spend it on points.

I was hoping I’d have my points magically before my trip so I could snatch up one of those last minutes cancellation rooms, but it doesn’t look like it’s going to happen.

Also, you can never have enough points. It opens you up to vacationing differently. My first contract I assumed I would only stay in studios. My second happened because I stayed in a 1bed and at AKV, those are amazing. Now I can’t stay at Kidani unless I have a 1bed.

Unrelated - what broker did you use for your Poly buy? I’m already thinking I need more points there.

 

[Ruttangel]

Pvb is doooown.....whats the story?

According to DVC resalemarket Aulani, Boulder Ridge, Copper Creek, Polynesian, and Vero Beach are untouched for buy backs in 2019
However, they also said VGC, which happened earlier this week.

But all this begs the question......how low an offer would it take for a Poly contract to be taken?

 

[Breesus]

breesus---$85-$13600-160-SSR-Sept-19/19, 160/20, 160/21, 160/22- sent 9/20

 

[jamie3631]

jamie3631---$130.77-$9582-65-BWV-Oct-0/18, 62/19, 59/20, 65/21- sent 9/16 passed 10/2

Heard from the closing company, Mason Title, yesterday afternoon that we passed rofr. I emailed my broker, Bonnie at Fidelity letting her know. She said their servers were down yesterday and that is why she did not email me....so I likely passed earlier this week, but regardless it passed!

 

[KStash]

You will pass. PVB has been passing at $130.

Yeah, I think I'll probably be ok, but they also said that about VGC and BRV earlier (about Disney not buying them back), so I'm not going to get my hopes up until it goes through.

 

[Brianstl]

According to DVC resalemarket Aulani, Boulder Ridge, Copper Creek, Polynesian, and Vero Beach are untouched for buy backs in 2019
However, they also said VGC, which happened earlier this week.

But all this begs the question......how low an offer would it take for a Poly contract to be taken?

I think the resale restrictions they put in at RIV show they are not worried about resale prices dropping. What is going to trigger buybacks from now on is demand for direct points at specific resorts. If there is demand for direct points at a specific "sold out" resort they will pick the lowest contract that fits their specific point needs. They will let the others pass regardless of how low the price is. I don't think Disney is operating with a price per point floor anymore when it comes to ROFR. Dramatically lower resale prices will actually benefit them.

 

[BigOnDis]

breesus---$85-$13600-160-SSR-Sept-19/19, 160/20, 160/21, 160/22- sent 9/20

Wow, great Deal.

 

[Ruttangel]

I think the resale restrictions they put in at RIV show they are not worried about resale prices dropping. What is going to trigger buybacks from now on is demand for direct points at specific resorts. If there is demand for direct points at a specific "sold out" resort they will pick the lowest contract that fits their specific point needs. They will let the others pass regardless of how low the price is. I don't think Disney is operating with a price per point floor anymore when it comes to ROFR. Dramatically lower resale prices will actually benefit them.

I agree, they look at a waitlist and pick one that matches to buy back, although sometimes it appears more random.
However, they must care about the resale prices as if they are too low no-one will buy direct regardless of the lost benefits.

If I was them I would stop this attack on resale restrictions and instead give more added perks for direct purchasers (e.g. 10% free extra points per year, or a gift card every year based on direct points up to $250 for 250 points and above)

 

[Yinn]

Unrelated - what broker did you use for your Poly buy? I’m already thinking I need more points there.

Shontell @ DVC By Resale.

KStash---$146-$30664-200-PVB-Sep-0/18, 0/19, 200/20, 200/21- sent 10/2

Here is hoping the 3rd time is the charm. If this gets bought back by Disney, I'm going to give up for awhile.

My contract was a similiar contract and just passed at a lower price point. So I don't see why Disney would take yours and let mine go. You should be fine.

According to DVC resalemarket Aulani, Boulder Ridge, Copper Creek, Polynesian, and Vero Beach are untouched for buy backs in 2019
However, they also said VGC, which happened earlier this week.

But all this begs the question......how low an offer would it take for a Poly contract to be taken?

I'm not sure there's much room left as it's around 55% of direct pricing. But we might see a lot of owner limits even without ROFR limits and come up against a market bottom rather than a ROFR bottom. I think PVB is going to start rebounding after this next round of of dues adjustments. Cheapest dues right now in WDW in order - VGF ($6.39) -> SSR ($6.40) -> BLT ($6.74) -> PVB ($6.76) With SSR and BLT being touted as value kings.

But think about these statements...

1. The cheapest PVB sold for just $5/pt more than the most expensive SSR
2. The cheapest PVB sold for $5 less than the cheapest BLT. BLT is increasing their dues at 5.7%/year and should surpass PVB dues when 2020 dues are announced

How many people buy SSR for 7 months use at other resorts? We could aruge that PVB doens't have XYZ, but I don't see how it could drop much more as those buyers would have to start considering PVB a comparable value if it went into the 110's. Especially if SSR dues went up due to refurbishment costs.

 

[Matty B13]

PVB right now has a little supply & demand problem right now, there are a ton of PVB contracts out there for sale, but there aren't a lot of buyers. If you look at a lot of the Brokers out there they have a lot of contracts listed, this is what is keeping the price from going above BLT or VGF.

 

[Ruttangel]

How many people buy SSR for 7 months use at other resorts? We could aruge that PVB doens't have XYZ, but I don't see how it could drop much more as those buyers would have to start considering PVB a comparable value if it went into the 110's. Especially if SSR dues went up due to refurbishment costs.

Yes, you are right - there is a point where PVB becomes the cheapest to buy over time and would actually increase its demand.
The dues will be very interesting for 2020

 

[wideboty2000]

cabloom---$140-$37713-250-BLT-Dec-0/18, 0/19, 250/20-Seller pays closing- sent 9/13, passed 10/2 Added on to BLT points we closed on back in May.

cabloom---$140-$37713-250-BLT-Dec-0/18, 0/19, 250/20-Seller pays closing- sent 9/13, passed 10/2 Added on to BLT points we closed on back in May.

Yes, you are right - there is a point where PVB becomes the cheapest to buy over time and would actually increase its demand.
The dues will be very interesting for 2020

Id find it hard to imagine that PVB would EVER be within $20-30pp of SARATOGA....monorail resort....only problem that devalues them slightly is nothing other than studios and massive bungalows.

 

[wideboty2000]

Shontell @ DVC By Resale.



My contract was a similiar contract and just passed at a lower price point. So I don't see why Disney would take yours and let mine go. You should be fine.



I'm not sure there's much room left as it's around 55% of direct pricing. But we might see a lot of owner limits even without ROFR limits and come up against a market bottom rather than a ROFR bottom. I think PVB is going to start rebounding after this next round of of dues adjustments. Cheapest dues right now in WDW in order - VGF ($6.39) -> SSR ($6.40) -> BLT ($6.74) -> PVB ($6.76) With SSR and BLT being touted as value kings.

But think about these statements...

1. The cheapest PVB sold for just $5/pt more than the most expensive SSR
2. The cheapest PVB sold for $5 less than the cheapest BLT. BLT is increasing their dues at 5.7%/year and should surpass PVB dues when 2020 dues are announced

How many people buy SSR for 7 months use at other resorts? We could aruge that PVB doens't have XYZ, but I don't see how it could drop much more as those buyers would have to start considering PVB a comparable value if it went into the 110's. Especially if SSR dues went up due to refurbishment costs.

How do you know 5.7% hike?

 

[Brianstl]

I agree, they look at a waitlist and pick one that matches to buy back, although sometimes it appears more random.
However, they must care about the resale prices as if they are too low no-one will buy direct regardless of the lost benefits.

If I was them I would stop this attack on resale restrictions and instead give more added perks for direct purchasers (e.g. 10% free extra points per year, or a gift card based on direct points up to $250 for 250 points)

I'm not sure there are as many advantages for Disney in maintaining a resale cost floor as most people think. Legally Disney can only own so many points in each resort. Everyday that Disney holds ROFR points cost them money in maintenance fees they are responsible for. Lastly, a big part of Disney's sales pitch for people who have heard of the resale market is that direct points are far more valuable and prestigious than resale points. A bigger price difference between the two helps drive home that point to people who are acting on an emotional level when they are pixie dusted up in the Disney bubble. Hell, it is clear that it works on members of this board as they justify a direct purchase that clearly didn't make financial sense compared to a resale purchase despite the fact they are among the most educated buyers on a DVC purchase.

 

[Yinn]

PVB right now has a little supply & demand problem right now, there are a ton of PVB contracts out there for sale, but there aren't a lot of buyers. If you look at a lot of the Brokers out there they have a lot of contracts listed, this is what is keeping the price from going above BLT or VGF.

You're right. Until the demand problem gets solved, it'll be here for a while. But I still find this interesting, the demand problem isn't for PVB the resort. It's for PVB the contract. Multiple DVC rental sites still list PVB as one of the most in demand resorts. Availability threads and calculators say the same thing. So it doesn't make sense that real demand is high, but committment demand is low. That tells me it isn't a fundamental issue with the resort itself but rather other things that are driving the supply and demand and it's a perfect storm of problems for PVB, which is 4/5 years old at this point that both drives supply up and demand down.

Supply:
+ Large initial supply to begin with
+ Supply cycle where original buyers are Disney'd out, or family is growing up.
+ Recently sold out, regret buyers still selling
+ Excess of points as a result of Bungalos

Demand:
- Loss of direct marketting support
- Competition from new DVC resorts
- New transportation system overshadows monorail (including recent monorail issues)
- Changes in DVC resale rules
- Lack of 1BR to support prices like VGF has

Despite this, I still think we're at the bottom. The market will follow the money and the money tells me the value will be hard to ignore.

Id find it hard to imagine that PVB would EVER be within $20-30pp of SARATOGA....monorail resort....only problem that devalues them slightly is nothing other than studios and massive bungalows.

It's already there - Page 1 of this post of contracts that passed.
SSR: 92-120 (Highest SSR taken @ $102)
PVB: 128-153

I just passed ROFR and it was $26 more than the highest SSR contract taken by Disney and there's a couple more offers on the bottom PVB range in ROFR now. Perhaps part of the demand problem is that not many realize it's fallen that far - or that some of the value dvcs have risen that much.

How do you know 5.7% hike?

It's not that there will be a 5.7% hike. It's that historically, BLT has seen a CAGR of 5.7% increase in dues. The highest of any WDW resort, ranking behind only Hilton Head.

If you just started researching DVC, you're probably looking for terms like "best dvc resort" or "best dvc value" on google. Some of those articles will publish the history of dues for each resort. If you take one of the top results as an example, it was published in 2016. In 2016, the dues for BLT were $5.28/pt. PVB was $6.09/pt. Which led the author to make a statement (paraphrased) to say that BLT isn't their favorite resort; only the one they would buy for the value. Their favorite resort would be either Wilderness Lodge or the Poly. Today, BLT and PVB dues are within 2 cents of each other - BLT's dues increases are far outpacing that of PVB. So when we start to see an intersection between desired demand and value demand - and maybe a couple of articles to update - then we might start seeing the prices go back up.

 

[superdiz]

Passed!!!! So exited!!!

superdiz---$120-$18748-150-BWV-Aug-0/18, 0/19, 146/20, 150/21- sent 9/13, passed 10/3

 

[Raven01]

Raven01---$103-$22660-220-AKV-Jun-0/18, 0/19, 220/20, 220/21-Seller pays MF '19 and closing costs - sent 10/3

Think it will pass? I originally wanted a slightly smaller contract, but the seller would not negotiate on price, closing costs, or Maintenance Fees and the broker did not like me adjusting the price per point to accommodate. So I walked on that one. This one turned about to be cheaper. I plan to rent the first 300 points which brings the price per point down to around $80.

 

[rundisney79]

Raven01---$103-$22660-220-AKV-Jun-0/18, 0/19, 220/20, 220/21-Seller pays MF '19 and closing costs - sent 10/3

Think it will pass? I originally wanted a slightly smaller contract, but the seller would not negotiate on price, closing costs, or Maintenance Fees and the broker did not like me adjusting the price per point to accommodate. So I walked on that one. This one turned about to be cheaper. I plan to rent the first 300 points which brings the price per point down to around $80.

Not sure how you are getting $80 after renting 300 points? For AKL you will most likely get $17-$18 per point at the 11 month window but you are also required to pay the dues on those which is $7/pt. So in the end you will get about $10/pt to apply to the price you paid for the contract, so around $93/pt.

 

[Raven01]

Not including 2020 dues. Just the total 22,660 less $5100, then divided by 220 to get the cost per point.

 

[tnicks]

KStash---$146-$30664-200-PVB-Sep-0/18, 0/19, 200/20, 200/21- sent 10/2

Here is hoping the 3rd time is the charm. If this gets bought back by Disney, I'm going to give up for awhile.

Not sure how you are getting $80 after renting 300 points? For AKL you will most likely get $17-$18 per point at the 11 month window but you are also required to pay the dues on those which is $7/pt. So in the end you will get about $10/pt to apply to the price you paid for the contract, so around $93/pt.

At $17-18 pp I assume you mean renting them directly VS using a third-party?