ROFR Thread April to June 2024 *PLEASE SEE FIRST POST FOR INSTRUCTIONS & FORMATTING TOOL*

[AwfulWaffle]

or is preparing to extend it further into the summer.

doubtful since they have already capped total points purchasable under 300 which was where the biggest incentive was anyways. It’s just because they priced it too low and sold too fast like they did with GFV.

 

[ajpruett]

Chili327---$120-$3724-25-BWV-Oct-0/22, 0/23, 25/24, 25/25- sent 4/22- passed 5/8

ajpruett---$156-$24960-160-Poly-Feb 0/24, 160/25, 160/26 sent 5/7 - Rofr 5/17

 

[AwfulWaffle]

ajpruett---$156-$24960-160-Poly-Feb 0/24, 160/25, 160/26 sent 5/7 - Rofr 5/17

Sorry mate.

 

[JoshF]

Very curious if that Aulani ROFR post was real.

 

[AwfulWaffle]

Very curious if that Aulani ROFR post was real.

Yeah not holding my breath on that one.... But maybe it'll motivate some folks to part ways with their subsidized dues contracts

 

[ajpruett]

Sorry mate.

Thank you. I have a similar offer in for another contract and should know this week - not feeling hopeful.

 

[sparkhill]

Sparkhill---$250-$42070-160-VGC-Sep-0/22, 0/23, 316/24, 160/25- sent 5/6

 

[AwfulWaffle]

Thank you. I have a similar offer in for another contract and should know this week - not feeling hopeful.

Look on the bright side, combine the two and just get direct sap at poly I lost mine at 145 so holding off on resale at poly for now and I'll likely just grab a few direct points. I don't expect the incentives to be great so probably just a 50 pointer to start and see what happens with incentives down the road.

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

I’m sure it’s poor form to reply to your own post but I looked it up after @Genie+ helpfully provided pricing data from 2019, and it turns out that prevailing DVC “sticker” prices on Jan 2019 would be exactly $225 today (edit to add— adjusted for inflation).

I have a few hypothetical questions about all this actually:

What do we think direct prices will look like on 10yrs? If in 2014, direct prices were ~$160, can we expect that in 2034 direct will be around $290-$300? Is that sustainable?

And if it is, what will that do the resale prices? Is it fair to assume that resale prices (for resorts with 2057+ expirations) will also go up? Or will resale just keep going down?

All this to say, why can’t we assume that resale will continue to stay within ~$100 of direct prices? Specifically, if there’s still a lot of time left on the contracts? Resale restricted resorts will probably be a bit less than that but if direct is going at $300 (don’t even want to think about what inactive direct resorts will look like), will resale not be around $180-200?

Does anyone know what the resale market looked like 10 or 15 years ago? Maybe I’m being too simple and naive in my thinking.

 

[aammtt20]

I hope that one Facebook post is all we ever hear/learn about this aulani rofr, and then it goes down as the stuff of legend on these boards. Ten years from now, a user obliquely mentions it in hushed tones - that one aualni contract that possibly got rofr’ed that one time, as newer members wonder what the heck everyone is referencing.

 

[marmentrout85]

I have a few hypothetical questions about all this actually:

What do we think direct prices will look like on 10yrs? If in 2014, direct prices were ~$160, can we expect that in 2034 direct will be around $290-$300? Is that sustainable?

And if it is, what will that do the resale prices? Is it fair to assume that resale prices (for resorts with 2057+ expirations) will also go up? Or will resale just keep going down?

All this to say, why can’t we assume that resale will continue to stay within ~$100 of direct prices? Specifically, if there’s still a lot of time left on the contracts? Resale restricted resorts will probably be a bit less than that but if direct is going at $300 (don’t even want to think about what inactive direct resorts will look like), will resale not be around $180-200?

Does anyone know what the resale market looked like 10 or 15 years ago? Maybe I’m being too simple and naive in my thinking.

I've been asking myself these very same questions and am right there with you on that line of thinking. Logically makes sense to me but who knows what will happen? A crystal ball would be pretty useful right about now

 

[Genie+]

I hope that one Facebook post is all we ever hear/learn about this aulani rofr, and then it goes down as the stuff of legend on these boards. Ten years from now, a user obliquely mentions it in hushed tones - that one aualni contract that possibly got rofr’ed that one time, as newer members wonder what the heck everyone is referencing.

Like the family eating a can of corn in front of MK’s City Hall?

There are legends around here and not always easy to tell which are true or not.

 

[ClaraOswald]

I kind of wonder if this is the game of “telephone” when one broker mentioned to another that an AKV was taken (which it “was” before it “wasn’t”) and then that morphed into Aulani….

This theory seems plausible to me.

 

[sparkhill]

Does anyone know what the resale market looked like 10 or 15 years ago? Maybe I’m being too simple and naive in my thinking.

Last time I was really active in resales was 2011-12. Like now, prices were very property and contract specific but in general, resale was about 50% of the direct pricing. VCG was about $160 (direct) and $80 (resale). Keep in mind though, we were just coming out a financial crisis that was devastating for many, and lots of DVC contracts were distressed.

Edit: I remember noticing Hilton Head contracts under $40.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Last time I was really active in resales was 2011-12. Like now, prices were very property and contract specific but in general, resale was about 50% of the direct pricing. VCG was about $160 (direct) and $80 (resale). Keep in mind though, we were just coming out a financial crisis that was devastating for many, and lots of DVC contracts were distressed.

Edit: I remember noticing Hilton Head contracts under $40.

I would hypothesize that the resale market infrastructure was materially less mature and liquid.

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

Last time I was really active in resales was 2011-12. Like now, prices were very property and contract specific but in general, resale was about 50% of the direct pricing. VCG was about $160 (direct) and $80 (resale). Keep in mind though, we were just coming out a financial crisis that was devastating for many, and lots of DVC contracts were distressed.

Edit: I remember noticing Hilton Head contracts under $40.

VGC at $80 makes me want to cry…not that I would have or could have bought at that time lol

I’ll take it if the resale market stays around 50% of direct sales. That would be pretty consist to what it today. And I know this assumes a lot about what DVC and WDW look like in that time, but even if it’s worth a bit less than that that’s still great value in my eyes.

Your note about Hilton Head goes back to my point that resale follows direct prices. HH is in the $60s currently, so it’s gone up since those years. And that’s with the current status of HH, including its high dues, 2042 expiration and most importantly, its relative value v. cash prices. Not that it’s a bad thing to err on the side of caution, but we do tend to over fixate on the devaluation of direct points but we’re looking at it through the lens of today’s resale numbers and pricing. Barring any financial catastrophes and if the company keeps chugging along, even mediocrely, the resale trend strongly suggests that it will follow direct pricing.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

VGC at $80 makes me want to cry…not that I would have or could have bought at that time lol

I’ll take it if the resale market stays around 50% of direct sales. That would be pretty consist to what it today. And I know this assumes a lot about what DVC and WDW look like in that time, but even if it’s worth a bit less than that that’s still great value in my eyes.

Your note about Hilton Head goes back to my point that resale follows direct prices. HH is in the $60s currently, so it’s gone up since those years. And that’s with the current status of HH, including its high dues, 2042 expiration and most importantly, its relative value v. cash prices. Not that it’s a bad thing to err on the side of caution, but we do tend to over fixate on the devaluation of direct points but we’re looking at it through the lens of today’s resale numbers and pricing. Barring any financial catastrophes and if the company keeps chugging along, even mediocrely, the resale trend strongly suggests that it will follow direct pricing.

One thing to remember is that Disney is intentionally devaluing resale with restrictions — I think it will impact SAP properties more than the most desirable ones, but I think it makes the future value of points less predictable as we approach 2040, and potentially introducing a trust that gives direct buyers additional head start on SAP is another wildcard. When most resale points are (functionally, if not technically) restricted (still 20+ years away), I think points’ value will largely be determined by their relative values to staying in a comparable hotel room (and of course they will still fluctuate with macroeconomic factors), which will be determined by the popularity and demand at the adjacent theme parks (or Hawaiian vacations).

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

One thing to remember is that Disney is intentionally devaluing resale with restrictions — I think it will impact SAP properties more than the most desirable ones, but I think it makes the future value of points less predictable as we approach 2040, and potentially introducing a trust that gives direct buyers additional head start on SAP is another wildcard. When most resale points are (functionally, if not technically) restricted (still 20+ years away), I think points’ value will largely be determined by their relative values to staying in a comparable hotel room (and of course they will still fluctuate with macroeconomic factors), which will be determined by the popularity and demand at the adjacent theme parks (or Hawaiian vacations).

I agree with all this, the long term effect resale restrictions and maybe a trust product are the unknown curveballs that could completely negate my hopeful projections lol I’m choosing to bury my head a bit and stay optimistic

 

[Chili327]

One thing to remember is that Disney is intentionally devaluing resale with restrictions — I think it will impact SAP properties more than the most desirable ones, but I think it makes the future value of points less predictable as we approach 2040

I agree with all this, the long term effect resale restrictions and maybe a trust product are the unknown curveballs that could completely negate my hopeful projections lol
I’m choosing to bury my head a bit and stay optimistic

Agree about devaluing, & the unknown curveball.
I also think it will make SSR/SAP a good buy (even more so) down the road, if you just need some extra to add-on to your preferred home resorts.

 

[CastAStone]

What do we think direct prices will look like on 10yrs? If in 2014, direct prices were ~$160, can we expect that in 2034 direct will be around $290-$300? Is that sustainable?

And if it is, what will that do the resale prices?

I think what happens to DVC direct prices greatly depends on what happens to Disney Hotel prices. When they raised hotel prices 10%+ a year in the early 2010s, they raised DVC prices at similar rates. More recent increases have been much smaller on both.

It’s already hard to justify direct in many scenarios; I can’t imagine them taking it up another 20% vs hotel prices.

Resale I think will stay within 50-65% of direct for most resorts, except on resorts approaching expiration. But that assumes dues stay somewhat manageablez