Riviera, Disneyland Hotel Help Boost Overall Direct Sales in January 2024

[Jimmy Geppetto]

And do you want to know what sold worse then them all? VGC.

The real irony is this January is actually stronger than last and yet VGF isn’t for sale. So I still have a hard time following why the sales are ‘sluggish’.

2023 was propped up with a VGF clearance sale AND the VDH launch, with Riviera humming in the background. VDH is definitely currently quite sluggish, but it has a terrible price to match.

I know everyone wants to make it about ‘restrictions’, but Rivieria is selling well currently in the near absence of incentives. That’s the surprising data. If it doesn’t meet their objectives, deeper incentives will surely follow - and yet they aren’t so far.

VGF had a fire sale because it wasn’t selling well enough on the other hand, then hilariously I think DVD was caught off guard and didn’t expect it to go so quickly. But all the more reason price (and expectancy) really can drive demand.

I agree with you. The RIV restrictions are having a limited impact on sales IMO. Many new buyers always go in thinking "I don't plan to ever sell... ". I know I did when I first bought.

I think VGF had a fire sale simply because they had too much inventory/supply hitting the market. We all know what happens when you increase supply while demand remains constant (or even declines). I'm assuming their margins were a tad higher on the VGF flip compared to a new build like VDH or even Poly. So they were able to get the ROE they wanted even with the firesale.

Just my guess.

 

[AwfulWaffle]

Speaking of Riviera, a red hot deal for my use year for only 114 a point. I just don’t know how people justify Riviera or Aulani direct for 2x the cost of resale. At this price point I would be tempted to buy into this resort but I must remain strong for future unrestricted direct points.

 

[Sandisw]

Speaking of Riviera, a red hot deal for my use year for only 114 a point. I just don’t know how people justify Riviera or Aulani direct for 2x the cost of resale. At this price point I would be tempted to buy into this resort but I must remain strong for future unrestricted direct points.

I think those that are choosing RIv direct want the best of all worlds in having home resort and flexibility.

But, those who love RIv like me have bought resale because it’s where we want to be!!

 

[Dobermanns]

I think those that are choosing RIv direct want the best of all worlds in having home resort and flexibility.

But, those who love RIv like me have bought resale because it’s where we want to be!!

Yep. I bought 150 RIV resale because being stuck at RIV makes me happy.

 

[AwfulWaffle]

Yep. I bought 150 RIV resale because being stuck at RIV makes me happy.

Same and it’s less of a hit if/when we go resell if we bought resale

 

[BrianLo]

I agree with you. The RIV restrictions are having a limited impact on sales IMO. Many new buyers always go in thinking "I don't plan to ever sell... ". I know I did when I first bought.

I think VGF had a fire sale simply because they had too much inventory/supply hitting the market. We all know what happens when you increase supply while demand remains constant (or even declines). I'm assuming their margins were a tad higher on the VGF flip compared to a new build like VDH or even Poly. So they were able to get the ROE they wanted even with the firesale.

Just my guess.

Definitely. Poly 2 was obviously in the works, but its announcement was heavily motivated by how excited DVD was by the VGF2 initial sales. No surprise that the Poly 2 announcement came 2 weeks later.

Then I think VGF2 slowed a bit more than they were expecting. The fire sale was to start clearing it out to make way for Poly 2, but at the same token I think they were not expecting it to completely clear out exclusively in that incentive window. VGF2 was actually tracking to still be on sale during Poly 2 before that move.

I think Will Lavoto's quote from his June Direct article was somewhat predictive of the situation.

If Grand Floridian could continue selling about 75,000 points a month, it would take about eight months for the resort to be sold out. However, since Grand Floridian has averaged only 56,381 points over the last 12 months, it may take another year before it reaches that stage. Much will depend on the incentives Disney offers in the coming months.

One of the other reasons I take the negative RIV sentiment with a grain of salt. If they (DVD) are motivated, RIV could be completely sold in 24 months... or possibly even less. If they do nothing, it's still only around December 2026 at this juncture.

 

[BrianLo]

Speaking of Riviera, a red hot deal for my use year for only 114 a point. I just don’t know how people justify Riviera or Aulani direct for 2x the cost of resale. At this price point I would be tempted to buy into this resort but I must remain strong for future unrestricted direct points.

I think it's definitely moving into a great deal territory.

Especially If one already owns a bunch of alternate home resorts, visits WDW consistently to ensure they use WDW points, already has a DVC-Y via other contracts and likes RIV, why not buy the deeply discounted contract?

My only personal flaw is I'm a West Coaster, use less restricted WDW points at Aulani still and don't know if I could commit to ensuring I go to WDW every 3 years (or less) indefinitely. Although renting is an option of course. So I settled with a small direct RIV a couple years ago, which did help with building towards a DVC-Y.

 

[Cfabar1]

Here's the thing about restrictions at Disney, and why I think Disney was extremely silly to go down this path:

All the resorts are relatively close to each other.

For many DVC owners, they are coming once a year or twice a year for their weeklong vacations. You're going to have to either do split stays or walk/skyline/bus somewhere if the goal is to see all the parks. So being locked in isn't really that big of a deal in my view - especially if you buy where you want to stay.

So at this point, staying at a particular hotel isn't that different than any other. The DVC network is also really weak - so - if I don't care about HHI, VB, or AUL, while it might be fun to stay at Poly one time and Cabins another, all that really matters is we had a great visit at Disney in a Disney Deluxe Resort. It is not the same thing as buying restricted resort from another company where it's all about going to Aspen this year and New Mexico next year. DVC is about taking the same magical vacation year after year.

I can't stomach RIV at the direct price, knowing I can buy resale for half the price... If DVC hadn't gone the restriction route, I would be MORE inclined to buy RIV from them.....

 

[Jimmy Geppetto]

Here's the thing about restrictions at Disney, and why I think Disney was extremely silly to go down this path:

All the resorts are relatively close to each other.

For many DVC owners, they are coming once a year or twice a year for their weeklong vacations. You're going to have to either do split stays or walk/skyline/bus somewhere if the goal is to see all the parks. So being locked in isn't really that big of a deal in my view - especially if you buy where you want to stay.

So at this point, staying at a particular hotel isn't that different than any other. The DVC network is also really weak - so - if I don't care about HHI, VB, or AUL, while it might be fun to stay at Poly one time and Cabins another, all that really matters is we had a great visit at Disney in a Disney Deluxe Resort. It is not the same thing as buying restricted resort from another company where it's all about going to Aspen this year and New Mexico next year. DVC is about taking the same magical vacation year after year.

I can't stomach RIV at the direct price, knowing I can buy resale for half the price... If DVC hadn't gone the restriction route, I would be MORE inclined to buy RIV from them.....

I totally get this perspective. But Disney just doesn’t care. They’re happy with where sales are at for the market of consumers they are targeting.

Their long term game is to differentiate their product from resales and other timeshares IMO. The data says it’s starting to work.

 

[Cfabar1]

I totally get this perspective. But Disney just doesn’t care. They’re happy with where sales are at for the market of consumers they are targeting.

Their long term game is to differentiate their product from resales and other timeshares IMO. The data says it’s starting to work.

Absolutely!

I am surprised how successful it has been - especially in the era of the internet, but it clearly is working - enough.... On the other hand RIV has taken 5 years so far to sell, with no end in sight!

 

[Jimmy Geppetto]

Absolutely!

I am surprised how successful it has been - especially in the era of the internet, but it clearly is working - enough.... On the other hand RIV has taken 5 years so far to sell, with no end in sight!

93,000 points in January. Just crazy. I never would have guessed it’d be that high.

I just think something is up with this new “trust” product and resale is going to be negatively impacted.

I know some say the resale value/worth of DVC makes it more appealing but clearly new buyers don’t factor it as much as we do
Otherwise they wouldn’t buy with restrictions. So if new buyers dismiss it… DVC is not going to care about keeping resale values up and I think they will try to do the opposite. Many other timeshares sell just fine with $0 resale value and they don’t have the Disney brand behind them or four parks attached to their properties.

 

[DanCali]

I got the same treatment at a different resort - no mention of Cabins at all, just why I have to buy Riviera, and why it has to happen now (multiple reasons were suggested). Even after I said I'm highly unlikely to buy a resort with the resale restrictions and the conversation switched to Poly/Poly2, the follow up emails were on Riviera. Seems like they're definitely pushing it hard before Poly2 sales start.

The RIV restrictions are having a limited impact on sales IMO. Many new buyers always go in thinking "I don't plan to ever sell... ". I know I did when I first bought.

This is also the line the salesperson made sure to plant in my head in the discussion I referenced earlier re Riviera. "Why are you worried about resale price? You'll leave it to your kids and they'll hate you if it's resale..."

I guess it works when you're making an emotional decision, but I'm not sure that's a lot different than a developer selling me a $1M house for $1.5M and saying "Don't worry about it - this neighborhood is so great you'll never want to move and by the time your kids get it, it will be worth more".

Riviera restrictions may or may not have a limited impact in sales, but they 100% impact resale prices (just look at the trend, and it's not going to get better as more sellers come online and supply increases). I'll stick to the general idea of buying direct if direct prices are "close enough" to resale prices to justify it. Most buyers may not think like me but if they want to destroy resale values with those restrictions they will need to offer better incentives for me to consider buying direct. But I'll be happy to buy VGF or Poly2 direct unrestricted (and shorter contracts) at current Riviera prices.

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

Riviera restrictions may or may not have a limited impact in sales, but they 100% impact resale prices

I agree with you on most of what you’ve said but I think that restrictions won’t have as much of a long term impact as it does immediate. We talk so much on this board about how awful restrictions are (and in general, they really are) on resale but I actually disagree. RIV still isn’t sold out and therefore it’s still a very accessible commodity. Maybe it’ll go the way you’ve said and there will be more resale inventory so the price will go lower but I think the opposite can also happen once we’re in a timeframe where purchasing the other 2 Epcot resorts becomes unrealistic and RIV is the only good option.

I think RIV is going to settle somewhere between $115-$130 (aside from the very knowledgeable outliers in these boards), especially as the direct price/pt continues to rise and as they introduce more restricted resorts. And that’s pretty much where Copper Creek is right now- a resort that is only 2 years older, better point charts, lower dues, incredible theming, 11mo priority matters, and most importantly, no restrictions. CCV should be doing significantly better on the resale market than RIV but they’re pretty comparable right now.

The only real wrench I see that could drive RIV resale down would be if Disney announced the next Epcot DVC resort opening in the next few years. But even that will have restrictions, so it wouldn’t be restrictions that would cause the drop, it would be location.

 

[maui22]

I wonder how many direct buyers consider the ability to rent?

When we bought the first time, the boards overwhelmingly pointed out using points for DCL or exchanges were a poor use of points. The argument went, it's better to rent and use the cash for non-Disney stays. Better options and possible discounts available when using cash.

If we ever do sell some points, our thought is to look at what we can get for the points. If the price isn't what we feel it's was worth (our initial price - what we can get), we'll just rent those points or use them as SAP.

I realize not everyone is in the same situation and sometimes people must sell for what you can get (see what happened during the great recession). I wonder if more people view it like a house/condo where if the property is in good condition and in a desirable location you rent it?

 

[Sandisw]

Absolutely!

I am surprised how successful it has been - especially in the era of the internet, but it clearly is working - enough.... On the other hand RIV has taken 5 years so far to sell, with no end in sight!

The problem is we will never know the true impact of the pandemic on sales. Had that not happened, it might be close to sold out.

I

 

[Kayakc]

I wonder how many direct buyers consider the ability to rent?

When we bought the first time, the boards overwhelmingly pointed out using points for DCL or exchanges were a poor use of points. The argument went, it's better to rent and use the cash for non-Disney stays. Better options and possible discounts available when using cash.

If we ever do sell some points, our thought is to look at what we can get for the points. If the price isn't what we feel it's was worth (our initial price - what we can get), we'll just rent those points or use them as SAP.

I realize not everyone is in the same situation and sometimes people must sell for what you can get (see what happened during the great recession). I wonder if more people view it like a house/condo where if the property is in good condition and in a desirable location you rent it?

As one of the ones (new DVC Owner) who purchased the Riviera in January, I settled on only doing direct DVC points because I just wanted unrestricted access to all DVC resorts. Frankly, I don’t think I will buy resale going forward. I want access to what I want, and I’ll pay for it! The Riviera meets our needs because it is close to where we spend most evenings, Disney Springs. It’s a beautiful resort.

Didn’t consider renting because we go every year. It was mainly having unrestricted access to everything.

 

[DanCali]

As one of the ones (new DVC Owner) who purchased the Riviera in January, I settled on only doing direct DVC points because I just wanted unrestricted access to all DVC resorts. Frankly, I don’t think I will buy resale going forward. I want access to what I want, and I’ll pay for it! The Riviera meets our needs because it is close to where we spend most evenings, Disney Springs. It’s a beautiful resort.

Didn’t consider renting because we go every year. It was mainly having unrestricted access to everything.

Ok, fair point - but suppose you decide that over time your needs go from 200 points to 600 points. Do you need 600 points with access to everything? Or can you settle for 200(?) RIV points with unrestricted access to everything and 400 CCV or BLT points with access to 14 resorts at least until 2042? Or, if you stay mostly at Riviera, would you buy another 400 RIV resale in addition to what you have direct that you can use as SAP? Buying those extra 400 points resale would probably save you over $30K.

 

[Sandisw]

Ok, fair point - but suppose you decide that over time your needs go from 200 points to 600 points. Do you need 600 points with access to everything? Or can you settle for 200(?) RIV points with unrestricted access to everything and 400 CCV or BLT points with access to 14 resorts at least until 2042? Or, if you stay mostly at Riviera, would you buy another 400 RIV resale in addition to what you have direct that you can use as SAP? Buying those extra 400 points resale would probably save you over $30K.

Not the OP, but I have owned restricted points with my unrestricted points and it was a pain.

While I do own RIV resales, because that is my top resort, I won’t ever buy resale elsewhere that would be limited to other future resorts.

Definitely not worth the savings to have points I can’t use throughout the entire system.

 

[Kayakc]

Ok, fair point - but suppose you decide that over time your needs go from 200 points to 600 points. Do you need 600 points with access to everything? Or can you settle for 200(?) RIV points with unrestricted access to everything and 400 CCV or BLT points with access to 14 resorts at least until 2042? Or, if you stay mostly at Riviera, would you buy another 400 RIV resale in addition to what you have direct that you can use as SAP? Buying those extra 400 points resale would probably save you over $30K.

Well in January I received the points from December 2023 Use Year and banked them forward to December 2024 Use Year. I was able to book the December 2024 trip with that combination.

Later this year, I’ll decide on the extra points. I doubt it will be resale Riviera because that picks up restrictions. It will probably be Direct with Polynesian Tower. This way I can book Polynesian for December 2025 and Riviera in December 2026. Basically, I will bank forward points and alternate stays between both. (So, December 2026 Riviera is the combination of the 2025 banked points and 2026). (Polynesian December 2025, is the 2024 and 2025 combination).

I do like the Animal Kingdom Jambo House so I could do a stay there one year.

 

[Jimmy Geppetto]

This is also the line the salesperson made sure to plant in my head in the discussion I referenced earlier re Riviera. "Why are you worried about resale price? You'll leave it to your kids and they'll hate you if it's resale..."

I guess it works when you're making an emotional decision, but I'm not sure that's a lot different than a developer selling me a $1M house for $1.5M and saying "Don't worry about it - this neighborhood is so great you'll never want to move and by the time your kids get it, it will be worth more".

Riviera restrictions may or may not have a limited impact in sales, but they 100% impact resale prices (just look at the trend, and it's not going to get better as more sellers come online and supply increases). I'll stick to the general idea of buying direct if direct prices are "close enough" to resale prices to justify it. Most buyers may not think like me but if they want to destroy resale values with those restrictions they will need to offer better incentives for me to consider buying direct. But I'll be happy to buy VGF or Poly2 direct unrestricted (and shorter contracts) at current Riviera prices.

Agreed that restrictions depress resale values.

My point was that Disney doesn’t care about buyers who will only buy when resale prices are close to direct prices. They’re happy to dismiss that objection and move on.

The data supports their lack of care is not negatively impacting sales.

But for the record, I’d love it if they removed restrictions. It’s just not happening IMO. They’re up to some long term game that hasn’t been fully disclosed just yet.