Poly Tower Speculation

[tidefan]

We finally stayed at the property that was the genesis of this rule. It was a nice place, but definitely very odd on Kaua'i--it gave off Hilton Waikoloa vibes, though on a smaller scale.

@Brian Noble did it have a tram like the Hilton Waikoloa? (I wasn't expecting that when we got there...)

 

[Brian Noble]

No, but lots of Large Art. And columns.

 

[Reedy]

Not sure if this has been addressed yet, but my wife is currently staying at our home resort the Poly for a 4 days girls trip. I had her stop by the DVC office and ask them if we will be able to book the Poly tower rooms at the 11month window with our contract. They looked it up our contract (resale prior to 2019 restrictions) and told her that YES we will be able to book the new tower rooms at the 11 month window. To me this was a big question. Would the tower be its own point pool or part of the existing point pool. Looks like the existing point pool!

 

[jbreen2010]

Not sure if this has been addressed yet, but my wife is currently staying at our home resort the Poly for a 4 days girls trip. I had her stop by the DVC office and ask them if we will be able to book the Poly tower rooms at the 11month window with our contract. They looked it up our contract (resale prior to 2019 restrictions) and told her that YES we will be able to book the new tower rooms at the 11 month window. To me this was a big question. Would the tower be its own point pool or part of the existing point pool. Looks like the existing point pool!

It would make a lot of sense to add to the existing association as it allows diversification of both resorts rooms…ie if families grow and people want something larger than a studio (1br or 2br), but aren’t able to get a bungalow.

 

[Robbie Cottam]

Can you imagine the spe

Not sure if this has been addressed yet, but my wife is currently staying at our home resort the Poly for a 4 days girls trip. I had her stop by the DVC office and ask them if we will be able to book the Poly tower rooms at the 11month window with our contract. They looked it up our contract (resale prior to 2019 restrictions) and told her that YES we will be able to book the new tower rooms at the 11 month window. To me this was a big question. Would the tower be its own point pool or part of the existing point pool. Looks like the existing point pool!

not saying that someone didn’t tell her that.

But keep in mind the cast members at the kiosks have zero info…..

 

[Sandisw]

Not sure if this has been addressed yet, but my wife is currently staying at our home resort the Poly for a 4 days girls trip. I had her stop by the DVC office and ask them if we will be able to book the Poly tower rooms at the 11month window with our contract. They looked it up our contract (resale prior to 2019 restrictions) and told her that YES we will be able to book the new tower rooms at the 11 month window. To me this was a big question. Would the tower be its own point pool or part of the existing point pool. Looks like the existing point pool!

I would take it with a grain of salt…I was told in June, by multiple CMs that no decision has been shared and they have no idea, nor were they allowed to speculate.

It’s very possible that the CM was confirming your resale points are not restricted, which means they can book the tower, but they may not have paid attention to the piece of 11 month window.

The question that needs to be asked is if it going to be part of the same condo association as PVB and if they say yes, ask for where that information is posted for owners.

Matter of fact, if it’s part of PVB, then it is absolutely irrelevant when someone bought resale and I am confused as to why they would even need to look up when you bought your contract,

If current PVB owners have home resort advantage then all resale points are going to be valid there…

That’s why I think it was a guess and nothing more.

 

[Robbie Cottam]

I would be very surprised in the board of DVD / DVC Doesn’t and hasn’t know the plan since before they broke ground…

And since this is a speculation thread I would be equally surprised if any factual information was released before what ever trigger date or event that has been pre plan was achieved …

 

[Grumpy by Birth]

Not sure if this has been addressed yet, but my wife is currently staying at our home resort the Poly for a 4 days girls trip. I had her stop by the DVC office and ask them if we will be able to book the Poly tower rooms at the 11month window with our contract. They looked it up our contract (resale prior to 2019 restrictions) and told her that YES we will be able to book the new tower rooms at the 11 month window. To me this was a big question. Would the tower be its own point pool or part of the existing point pool. Looks like the existing point pool!

Poly tower could end up being either a new association or in the same one with original PVB. But I wouldn't put much faith in this CM's statement as confirmation that it will be in the same association.

It's much more likely that they're uninformed and speculating themselves or misinformed/misunderstood and misspoke.

They might end up being correct in the long run but even a stopped clock is correct twice a day.

 

[hockeydad21]

They sold 42 (now 40) year contracts for full price, amped up the points chart to the highest level at WDW. It was only 2M points, so would have been tough to make freestanding.

I was surprised at how low the initial pricing was, but everything else seemed textbook to me. Especially the escalating charts.

Again, I think this a huge benefit to DVD. Not "a loss" as you put it earlier. Being able to sell a resort at full price, but with less years is a huge win for Disney.

Not sure if this has been addressed yet, but my wife is currently staying at our home resort the Poly for a 4 days girls trip. I had her stop by the DVC office and ask them if we will be able to book the Poly tower rooms at the 11month window with our contract. They looked it up our contract (resale prior to 2019 restrictions) and told her that YES we will be able to book the new tower rooms at the 11 month window. To me this was a big question. Would the tower be its own point pool or part of the existing point pool. Looks like the existing point pool!

I wouldn't put too much stock into this interaction they had with someone at a Kiosk. If there was actually physical information handed out to cast members/sales reps on what association this tower would be in, then it probably would have been leaked to a Disney blog/podcast already.

I would be very surprised in the board of DVD / DVC Doesn’t and hasn’t know the plan since before they broke ground…

And since this is a speculation thread I would be equally surprised if any factual information was released before what ever trigger date or event that has been pre plan was achieved …

100% agreed. I tend to think DVD absolutely knows what association this is going into. There's no way they would go through concept and architectural/engineering phases without having an exact idea of how many of each room type they would want. If the tower mainly has 1 and 2 bedroom options, then it's likely same association. If they have a healthy amount of studios, then it's likely a new association. They're just keeping it under wraps until they absolutely have to submit the paperwork, which is when all the DVC detectives will find out.

 

[Sandisw]

I just got confirmation that guides have no new information regarding association. My guess is what I said above…they were simply confirming that because the contract was bought before 2019, that no matter what the association decision is, those points will be good at the tower.

 

[Brian Noble]

They looked it up our contract (resale prior to 2019 restrictions) and told her that YES we will be able to book the new tower rooms at the 11 month window.

Either they had no idea what they were talking about, or someone just got fired.

If the tower mainly has 1 and 2 bedroom options

Maybe less so if the 2BRs are mostly lockoffs.

allows diversification of both resorts rooms…ie if families grow and people want something larger than a studio (1br or 2br

I believe DVC does not care about making existing Poly owners happier. Those points are already sold.

 

[Robbie Cottam]

I just flipped a coin and it came up heads, that means new association. Just like I wanted

 

[BeachClub2014]

I believe DVC does not care about making existing Poly owners happier. Those points are already sold.

100% agree with this. I've never really understood the balancing out of room options as an argument for rolling the Poly Tower into the existing PVB association under the guise of correcting some "problem" with room configuration. I've said it before, given all those points have long been sold, DVC doesn't have a "problem" with PVB.

I would suggest that "fixing" the no 1 and 2 bedroom option with the legacy association contradicts DVC's best interest, especially with the desire to maintain resale restrictions. Opening up the brand-spanking new tower on day one to millions of legacy points could negatively impact sales and flies in the face of supporting restrictions.

 

[Robbie Cottam]

At the end of the day here is what we know:

Disney will announce when Disney wants to announce.

Whatever they announce half the people here will love it, half will be upset….

Some will look elsewhere and buy resale, some will blow up their guides phone trying to get early incentives…

That having been said Disney really has two models at work,

The pre restrictions and the restrictions….

For a new HOA is would have to be one of the smallest! Maybe 1/3 of the size of BLT:

Stand alone or part of the existing HOA it is going to book 10 months in advance…

Some thing I find interesting, and maybe fun to banter about, until the real news is released…

The poly. One of the 4 original resorts is just over 50 years old….. Maybe Disney plans to convert the whole property to DVC in phases…

 

[Sandisw]

I also will speculate that no matter what decision, PVB will get a new name. My guess is Seven Seas Bungalows and Villas @ the Poly Village Resort for the current PVB, and Luau Cove Villas @ the Poly Village Resort for the new tower!!!

 

[maui22]

We finally stayed at the property that was the genesis of this rule. It was a nice place, but definitely very odd on Kaua'i--it gave off Hilton Waikoloa vibes, though on a smaller scale.

While at Aulani, we talked with someone who worked at one of the top resorts in Poipu. (Unfortunately, I forget the name of the resort he worked at). He was born and raised on Kauai. His family are not fans of the Marriott or St Regis.

 

[zavandor]

The advantage of adding PVB2 to the same association would be that otherwise the resale price for PVB1 would plummet, creating problems with ROFR and sales. Would you buy a resort with only studios when there is a newer Tower next door with a balanced number of units in different sizes?
While that could boots PVB2 sales, if PVB1 price plummets, then it will be competition for PVB2. Maybe you'd prefer PVB2, but what if PVB1 is half price resale?

I am not sure myself if this would really happen. It's difficult to make predictions with DVC and I'm usually wrong
I think 60% will be a new association. But people asked for things that would advantage Disney for the unique association, and this could be one.

 

[maui22]

Those rooms are $800/night. Even now, when your stroller might be parked against a construction barrier and your view is that mess.

If Disney used this criteria, they would never have moved the 3 bungalows to PVB. Not sure about BPK.
Additionally, if Disney wanted they could keep a portion for cash reservations knowing that 1BR and 2BR would fetch a far higher price for every booking.

Disney's goal may be to build new WDW DVC properties to sell for the next 19 years. After that, they receive all the 2042 ending properties to begin DVD sales again (inflation drives cost per point up plus they can adjust point charts to reflect modern times). Basically, DVD enters a cycle of properties to cycle through potentially forever.

 

[Genie+]

I don’t see PVB resale ever dipping below the all-time low mid-2020, $120-$140.

 

[BamaGuy44]

The advantage of adding PVB2 to the same association would be that otherwise the resale price for PVB1 would plummet, creating problems with ROFR and sales. Would you buy a resort with only studios when there is a newer Tower next door with a balanced number of units in different sizes?
While that could boots PVB2 sales, if PVB1 price plummets, then it will be competition for PVB2. Maybe you'd prefer PVB2, but what if PVB1 is half price resale?

I am not sure myself if this would really happen. It's difficult to make predictions with DVC and I'm usually wrong
I think 60% will be a new association. But people asked for things that would advantage Disney for the unique association, and this could be one.

I'm guessing like everyone else, but it seems unlikely the effect on PVB resale prices would factor into this decision much. They're making a 40-50 year decision, and one that affects the DVC product overall.

The whole point of restrictions is to make resale less competitive, even if the prices drop. And the complete death of ROFR for months now shows they're not too worried about propping up resale prices.