Not Worth Purchasing Resale

[stwaldman]

I'd like to know who those people are. Neither my wife or I received one.And I can't imagine anyone who could spend 20,000 on Disney did either.
On another note,I had been tracking BWV for a couple of years when July 2020 we found a 150 point contract that we bought for 110.Now I see you can't touch it for less than 130.pp

I'm sure there's some, lord know there's financing available for anybody, but I have found this particular comment very funny when I've seen it on these boards. The stimulus checks definitely phased out at an income level that I imagine boxed out quite a few if not most DVC owners, especially the longer term ones who are probably savvy around resale.

 

[DisneyOutsider]

I'd like to know who those people are. Neither my wife or I received one.And I can't imagine anyone who could spend 20,000 on Disney did either.
On another note,I had been tracking BWV for a couple of years when July 2020 we found a 150 point contract that we bought for 110.Now I see you can't touch it for less than 130.pp

Consider that the income thresholds for stimulus payments were not adjusted for cost of living. There are many households in low cost of living areas who make very healthy salaries for their region suddenly getting thousands of dollars extra from these stimulus payments. Combine that with how easy it is to finance these purchases (at god-awful rates) as well as people not taking their usual vacations for a year.. and it's not hard to see.

It's a reasonable theory, but I'm not convinced it's the main driver in the price increases.

 

[DVCsloth]

When I added on it was between CCV and Riviera, I initially purchased Riviera but switched to CCV. I was a little bothered by the resale restrictions and thought CCV was more to my taste.
I don't think I would buy Riviera resale personally, but now after visiting last summer I would add on direct there no problem. I did buy some resale VGF back in 2015 but I doubt I would by resale with the current restrictions. I have a small family so we don't need a lot of points but if I had a larger family and found the perfect resale contract I would probably go for it. We are Florida residents so we usually buy a Silver pass. We stayed at Riviera last summer right after the resorts opened up, the Skyliner went down quite a few times for lightning but they had the busses there right away so it was no big deal. I think Riviera is an awesome resort and may add on there in the future!

 

[DVCsloth]

Consider that the income thresholds for stimulus payments were not adjusted for cost of living. There are many households in low cost of living areas who make very healthy salaries for their region suddenly getting thousands of dollars extra from these stimulus payments. Combine that with how easy it is to finance these purchases (at god-awful rates) as well as people not taking their usual vacations for a year.. and it's not hard to see.

It's a reasonable theory, but I'm not convinced it's the main driver in the price increases.

Consider that the income thresholds for stimulus payments were not adjusted for cost of living. There are many households in low cost of living areas who make very healthy salaries for their region suddenly getting thousands of dollars extra from these stimulus payments. Combine that with how easy it is to finance these purchases (at god-awful rates) as well as people not taking their usual vacations for a year.. and it's not hard to see.

It's a reasonable theory, but I'm not convinced it's the main driver in the price increases.

Have a feeling there will be quite a few contracts being sold once they start getting their dues bill.

 

[stwaldman]

Have a feeling there will be quite a few contracts being sold once they start getting their dues bill.

to be entirely fair to that population, there is a needle to thread where you can get pretty nicely discounted vacations for 2-3 years if you caught a contract before the peak of this market (say, last summer or autumn) and if it doesn't completely collapse onto itself, and you sell in 2023 or 2024. Even w. closing costs, the new floor being created where SSR points are $30pp higher than a year ago means people may actually do okay, even if they choose to offload near term.

 

[heynowirv]

Consider that the income thresholds for stimulus payments were not adjusted for cost of living. There are many households in low cost of living areas who make very healthy salaries for their region suddenly getting thousands of dollars extra from these stimulus payments. Combine that with how easy it is to finance these purchases (at god-awful rates) as well as people not taking their usual vacations for a year.. and it's not hard to see.

It's a reasonable theory, but I'm not convinced it's the main driver in the price increases.

I guess.We fit that boat of income(well we did until we both retired).But honestly I've always looked at DVC as a luxury that we bought when we could afford.Taking out a loan is just bad business in my opinion.I just know we never would.

 

[dvc lover 1970]

I'd like to know who those people are.Those stimulus checks might've helped people pay bills, but not buy DVC. And I can't imagine anyone who could spend 20,000 on Disney did either.
On another note,I had been tracking BWV for a couple of years when in July 2020 we found a 150 point contract that we bought for 110.pp.Now I see you can't touch it for less than 130.pp

Sadly, I know quite a few who got stimulus checks whose jobs were unaffected by Covid, and yes, used the checks to help purchase luxuries like vacations but that's neither here nor there, my point is there was extra money to put towards vacation purchases. I am waiting to see where the prices level off over the next year.

 

[dvc lover 1970]

to be entirely fair to that population, there is a needle to thread where you can get pretty nicely discounted vacations for 2-3 years if you caught a contract before the peak of this market (say, last summer or autumn) and if it doesn't completely collapse onto itself, and you sell in 2023 or 2024. Even w. closing costs, the new floor being created where SSR points are $30pp higher than a year ago means people may actually do okay, even if they choose to offload near term.

I am wondering if the uptick is more due to peoples FOMO (fear of missing out) and jumping in. At what point are the savings no longer there? I have not done the math, but SSR at 130? Many of the SSR contracts are now sitting. This almost reminds me of the resale push prior to the 2011 first round of changes. Resale did soar a little, then effective March 2011, they plummeted for a time - I saw BWV contract at around 48.00 per point - went very quickly - before I could get it- then they started to rebound but it did take a while to go back to their high right before the 2011 changes. I believe when something goes up quick, it will come down just as fast. I could be wrong, but will wait and watch.

 

[stwaldman]

I am wondering if the uptick is more due to peoples FOMO (fear of missing out) and jumping in. At what point are the savings no longer there? I have not done the math, but SSR at 130? Many of the SSR contracts are now sitting. This almost reminds me of the resale push prior to the 2011 first round of changes. Resale did soar a little, then effective March 2011, they plummeted for a time - I saw BWV contract at around 48.00 per point - went very quickly - before I could get it- then they started to rebound but it did take a while to go back to their high right before the 2011 changes. I believe when something goes up quick, it will come down just as fast. I could be wrong, but will wait and watch.

I'd love to have a crystal ball for this, but I agree, I now am sending my emails from the resale folks straight to trash these days. I'm not quite ready to recalibrate to a world where the not yet sold out after 10 years aulani is now selling in the 120s and 130s, but maybe that's just on me

My overspeculative mind also wonders if the somewhat temporary point glut in the system is also driving this, with people paying $180-190 pp for a poly or BLT (or paying a premium for whichever resort floats their boat) because they are seeing the current problems getting into those resorts, when in reality by 2023-24 maybe the 11 month window loses its shine again.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

I have been looking at resale DVC for a while and noticed that after months of there being like 250 contracts for sale across all the big resale sites, all of the sudden there’s over 600. DVCRM alone has 324 as I write this, for a while they barely had 150.

So if you’re looking for some downward movement on resale contract pricing, I think we may be making an approach to that happening.

4 days later and there’s over 650. The trend is continuing.

The clearest early drops are at BRV, BCV, BWV, which now have contracts listed in the 100s, low 140s, and low 120s, respectively.

 

[DVC Doctor]

I'd like to know who those people are.Those stimulus checks might've helped people pay bills, but not buy DVC. And I can't imagine anyone who could spend 20,000 on Disney did either.
On another note,I had been tracking BWV for a couple of years when in July 2020 we found a 150 point contract that we bought for 110.pp.Now I see you can't touch it for less than 130.pp

Agreed. There are many forms of stimulus payments. Some families were happy with $1,200 checks, some doctors got $50,000-$75,000 checks, and many businesses got well over $100k checks.

I think I am in the minority of people that actually got very little stimulus $$ from the government.

 

[Lee Matthews]

4 days later and there’s over 650. The trend is continuing.

The clearest early drops are at BRV, BCV, BWV, which now have contracts listed in the 100s, low 140s, and low 120s, respectively.

Even compared to a few months ago, the advice surely has to be to wait now if your not in a huge rush to buy resale

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

Even compared to a few months ago, the advice surely has to be to wait now if your not in a huge rush to buy resale

There are no guarantees, especially as I find the sudden, steady, but significant increase in available contracts to be inexplicable, but I’m certainly keeping an eye on prices as we have been keeping an eye on BWV.

For us though it’s not “buy now or wait”, it’s “it’s not worth it at current prices at all, but at $105 we’d buy”.

 

[Meem93]

yeah I agree. I am looking to add on just 50, Probably at Animal Kingdom. I think for large Contracts the savings can be significat, but for a small contract the savings might not be worth the hassle. if you are in good standing, to add direct is effortless and you get the points right away

 

[Suzabella]

There are no guarantees, especially as I find the sudden, steady, but significant increase in available contracts to be inexplicable, but I’m certainly keeping an eye on prices as we have been keeping an eye on BWV.

For us though it’s not “buy now or wait”, it’s “it’s not worth it at current prices at all, but at $105 we’d buy”.

We were looking for a small BWV contract to add on just to be able to stay a couple of nights in a studio. I knew the odds were against me and we'd always believed hard in the 'wait for a great deal' motto.

The last year has changed that. We lost a long time friend to cancer in May and they never found the original cancer. Another died in June from Covid. She was a Disney fanatic and we'd known her since junior high school. Another friend has an appointment with a cancer center but has no idea what battle she's facing. The Dr.s haven't told her test results yet. If there's anything the last year has taught us is....do it now while you still can. There are no guarantees of a tomorrow.

So we gave up the search earlier this summer and added on a small contract direct at BWV. Luckily, Disney had the points. The points were in our account in 5 hrs. Yes, we paid more than resale but the average price per point in all our contracts is $115 per point. We did well with the others so didn't mind this splurge. (It also brought us up to the 150 blue card as our resale contracts were prior to 2011) I hope we have years to enjoy those points but you really and truly never know.

New motto: Have desert first if you want to, don't put off that bucket list and do what brings you joy.

 

[rubybutt]

It looks like the website that stripped all of the contracts is having problems moving those contracts now. They are dropping in price fairly significantly. But in reality who is buying a 2042 contract that doesn't have points until 2023? When it gets under a $100 pp then call me..... lol. Seriously though, the only reason I can think to buy BWV or BCV is if you think DVC will offer a discount to reup them in 10-15 years, AND it will work for resale buyers. Otherwise just rent those points at $18-20pp. It is the same price as some of the contracts that are selling right now.

 

[RoseGold]

I find the sudden, steady, but significant increase in available contracts to be inexplicable

It's very explicable. AP pricing and terms are coming any minute. Why not wait until then?

 

[stwaldman]

It's very explicable. AP pricing and terms are coming any minute. Why not wait until then?

I'm actually a little surprised any VGF contracts moved after the new villa announcement. I know people are speculating in every direction, but considering how many open questions are out there (with that and APs being TBD), the average sales price through July kinda stunned me.

 

[heynowirv]

Agreed. There are many forms of stimulus payments. Some families were happy with $1,200 checks, some doctors got $50,000-$75,000 checks, and many businesses got well over $100k checks.

I think I am in the minority of people that actually got very little stimulus $$ from the government.

What Dr's received $75,000 in stimulus money? The most anyone received period was $3600 or $4000. Period.

 

[stwaldman]

What Dr's received 75,00 in stimulus money? The most anyone received period was 3600. Period.

i presume its a reference to small business loans that were a part of cares act stimulus, which, while there may have been stipulations around the uses of those direct funds, did in theory put $ in the pockets of people who may have been more well off. If you're a small biz owner and were able to get your PPP loan forgiven (and still managed to bring in some revenue), you may have come out "ahead".