News Round Up 2020

I think it all depends on what discounts Disney offers on the hotel rooms and if they really go with the whole idea of opening only the MK resort loops first. If they plan to fill the MK resort loop hotels without any Discount it wont be hard to have a small guest count, if they plan to make them more in line with the moderate resort pricing for a short time then i suspect they will reach whatever occupancy level they determine they need to meet safety standards and still meet whatever threshold for acceptable loss or break even. Regardless I already have my stay booked for the first week in October but I am at least one of the lucky people where neither me nor my wife are unable to work from home so our positions at this time are not at risk.
 


It's awful hard to predict what the response will be. Some will be excited to return, others will be fearful having that many people in one place can't help but be dangerous. I personally am really now hoping my May trip is cancelled - which seems likely - but still hopeful on my October trip. I would like to see the parks open for a few weeks and how things are being handled before I say that I would go or not. That said I wouldn't sweat the rides in October, so it would be mostly about dining and drinking and relaxing. As long as they get Jellyrolls back up and operating I am good to go.

The questions been asked about would Disney reopen if they lose money. My opinion is they would be unlikey to lose money. I think what you will see is lower capacities, so they will staff lower as well. Rides will run at 50 % capacity and staffing. Some QS restaurants won't bother to open. Their profits will be down, but their profits right now are ZERO and the costs of maintaining things while closed will eventually start to climb. (Rides cannot go without maintenance for long periods of time.)

In the end, they need to show they can be open and be safe in order to eventually get back to the benchmark of say 2019. So I think they re-open as quick as they can. They also have the problem of DVC owners stockpiling points, they certainly need to get the resorts open to halt that.

One big question in my mind is does Food and Wine happen this year even if the parks are open? I am not sure the food booths are practical with social distancing requirements, or even if they are financially viable if they are unsure on attendance. I notice while they've announced and started selling tickets for the Halloween and Christmas parties, nothing out on Food and Wine. It's still early, but usually they have the reservations for the food events up by May I think.


Yay, I said after that aired that they should do more of them.
 
It's awful hard to predict what the response will be. Some will be excited to return, others will be fearful having that many people in one place can't help but be dangerous. I personally am really now hoping my May trip is cancelled - which seems likely - but still hopeful on my October trip. I would like to see the parks open for a few weeks and how things are being handled before I say that I would go or not. That said I wouldn't sweat the rides in October, so it would be mostly about dining and drinking and relaxing. As long as they get Jellyrolls back up and operating I am good to go.

The questions been asked about would Disney reopen if they lose money. My opinion is they would be unlikey to lose money. I think what you will see is lower capacities, so they will staff lower as well. Rides will run at 50 % capacity and staffing. Some QS restaurants won't bother to open. Their profits will be down, but their profits right now are ZERO and the costs of maintaining things while closed will eventually start to climb. (Rides cannot go without maintenance for long periods of time.)

In the end, they need to show they can be open and be safe in order to eventually get back to the benchmark of say 2019. So I think they re-open as quick as they can. They also have the problem of DVC owners stockpiling points, they certainly need to get the resorts open to halt that.

One big question in my mind is does Food and Wine happen this year even if the parks are open? I am not sure the food booths are practical with social distancing requirements, or even if they are financially viable if they are unsure on attendance. I notice while they've announced and started selling tickets for the Halloween and Christmas parties, nothing out on Food and Wine. It's still early, but usually they have the reservations for the food events up by May I think.



Yay, I said after that aired that they should do more of them.
You can't meet the sanitizing obligations and encourage proper social distancing with staffing at 50%. I previously was wondering about the losses they will initially take when first opening and how they would try to avoid them, but I have determined that they are just going to have to bite the bullet and suffer initial losses over the first few weeks. I think they will open up everything they can and run the rides at the highest capacity they can given the guidelines and the number of staff they have ready to go.

The goal of that time period won't be to avoid an increase in losses. They will eat those losses. It will be to prove they can operate in the current environment and to provide an experience guests will rave about. That is what will get them to phase 2 quicker and will encourage more people to come to the parks and resorts. Disney won't care if they are no lines while they are running rides at the absolute highest capacity they can and they have quick service locations open they don't need open given the crowd size. The fact that people are riding all the rides they want and are experiencing little to no waits when it comes to getting food will be the best advertisements that Disney has had in years. That will help them to get the crowds they need to be able to generate some decent profits when we get to phase 2 and beyond.
 


why not? Won't there also be fewer guests?
Because there will be much more work that has to be done than before the shutdown. They will need people to wipe down ride surfaces, wipe down counters, wipe down railings, clean bathrooms , restock sanitizer stations and to keep people from gathering in groups all on a constant basis. A empty hand sanitizing station is not an inconvenience for guests anymore, it is now a health standard violation that if it happens enough could get them shut down or delay them from moving onto phase 2. The same goes for the other things I mentioned earlier. Those things take man power that you can not achieve with staffing at 50%.
 
but I think there would be "extra" work to be done ... so I think you can absolutely reduce the # of CMs but not sure if as much as the % of guests.

So if capacity is down 50% but CM # is down 30% or something as you will need more CMs per guest
And if they reduce the staff too much, that misses the point of limiting park capacity. They want to limit capacity so the crowds are all spread out, but if the line for whatever is still 120 minutes, they aren't going to have 6 feet between parties. The queues just aren't big enough to handle it.
 
How much more $$ is a CM getting in unemployment vs working? Hard to open if there isn't staff to run the place. It would have been better and probably cheaper for the US to pay the affected workers directly (at their rate) and keep them on their company's payroll, than force the companies to lay them off....
 
How much more $$ is a CM getting in unemployment vs working? Hard to open if there isn't staff to run the place. It would have been better and probably cheaper for the US to pay the affected workers directly (at their rate) and keep them on their company's payroll, than force the companies to lay them off....

hard to say though given that Florida seems to be denying a lot of unemployment claims (and anecdotally I have seen some CMs sharing on social media that they were declined) - so yeah, some if they were getting unemployment and they got the stimulus they would be good (while they were getting that) but some aren't even getting that
 
How much more $$ is a CM getting in unemployment vs working? Hard to open if there isn't staff to run the place. It would have been better and probably cheaper for the US to pay the affected workers directly (at their rate) and keep them on their company's payroll, than force the companies to lay them off....
You can't keep collecting unemployment after you are called back from a furlough. You either go back to work or you sit at home and collect nothing.
 

I am so confused by this. They're reacting to Universal saying they make more money bypassing theaters by...helping them bypass theaters? I think these theaters just want some splashy news coverage - especially AMC. They're already at the brink of bankruptcy, refusing to carry some of the biggest movies of 2020/2021 is just going to help push them over the edge.
 
I am so confused by this. They're reacting to Universal saying they make more money bypassing theaters by...helping them bypass theaters? I think these theaters just want some splashy news coverage - especially AMC. They're already at the brink of bankruptcy, refusing to carry some of the biggest movies of 2020/2021 is just going to help push them over the edge.
No. This has always been a red line for theaters. If you don't respect the release schedule, they won't play your movies in their theaters. It's the only leverage theaters have. So when studios say they are going to use direct to streaming more, and cut out theaters, they have no choice but to threaten to retaliate. And the threat can't just be against the small movies, it has to be against the blockbusters where both studios and theaters hope to make their money. So it may seem like cutting off your nose to spite your face, but really it's cutting off your nose because only in having a whole face do you have any value to your partner at all.

The theaters aren't allowed to own productions companies, and production companies aren't allowed to own theaters. Unfortunately the logic behind those laws is based on 1940s and 50s distribution channels. Now that production companies have so many other outlets, many they even own, movie theaters are constantly with their backs to the wall. It's why Disney can demand more and more of ticket revenue from their blockbusters.

This is a very messy time for theaters. I suspect we will see more than AMC going through bankruptcy.
 
No. This has always been a red line for theaters. If you don't respect the release schedule, they won't play your movies in their theaters. It's the only leverage theaters have. So when studios say they are going to use direct to streaming more, and cut out theaters, they have no choice but to threaten to retaliate. And the threat can't just be against the small movies, it has to be against the blockbusters where both studios and theaters hope to make their money. So it may seem like cutting off your nose to spite your face, but really it's cutting off your nose because only in having a whole face do you have any value to your partner at all.

The theaters aren't allowed to own productions companies, and production companies aren't allowed to own theaters. Unfortunately the logic behind those laws is based on 1940s and 50s distribution channels. Now that production companies have so many other outlets, many they even own, movie theaters are constantly with their backs to the wall. It's why Disney can demand more and more of ticket revenue from their blockbusters.

This is a very messy time for theaters. I suspect we will see more than AMC going through bankruptcy.


You maybe right we could this with the death of malls causing major movie theater chains to start to fall like the old Mom and Pop Drive ins. Especially as home entertainment hardware can make the "home theater" experience as technologically enjoyable as the ones you get at the brick and mortars for a lower cost. Im sure some will survive but what percentage is going to be the real question. Could see that in 20 years only 10 percent of our current movie theaters are still open.. Sure why not.
 
You can't keep collecting unemployment after you are called back from a furlough. You either go back to work or you sit at home and collect nothing.
Yeah, I'm glad you brought this up. That is exactly what I was thinking yet there is so much talk about people not wanting to go back to work, or getting more money for sitting at home. So I'm pretty sure this is true for furloughed employees, but what about those who were just plain laid off? IF their old boss calls them back offering them a job? I mean obviously they don't have to go back but if they were totally honest I think they wouldn't be eligible at that point for further benefits?
 

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