BabybetterDisney
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Apr 14, 2018
Currently published South Korea numbers:
Total cases: 9976
Total death: 169
Death rate: 169/9976=1.7%
South Korea have the most trustworthy data right now. They have done extensive testing, and their death rate has been kept low enough that their hospitals are not overwhelmed. The US hospitals are overwhelmed, so the US death rate will be higher, but I am doing an underestimate so that we assume that the US hospitals have as much success as Korea.
Expert projecting eventual infection rate worldwide: 50-70%
My belief: nearly 100% in developed countries such as US with high level of population traveling frequently and extensively.
US population: 327 million.
Korea death rate: 1.7 percent
My projected US death number by the end of this year (100% infection):
327 x 1.7% = 5.6 million
If we assume expert projection of 70% final infection rate:
327 x 70% x1.7% = 3.9 million
Current projected death numbers by the US government: 200 thousand.
I think the US is downplaying the death numbers to avoid causing panic, although the 200 thousand is probably already creeping people out. I did the above math because I like to know the real numbers and the whole truth; even if it’s unpleasant, it helps me face the music better. I don’t like to be surprised.
The average American knows 600 people. That means at the end of the year, everybody will know an average 600 x 1.7% = 10 people who died from the virus. If most of your acquaintances are old because you are old (age 60+), then the number of dead acquaintances you know will be more like 50 (assuming you don’t die yourself.) That’s what I tell my DH, being he is in the 60+ group and most of his friends are old, and he knows a lot of people.
This is an estimate assuming proper medical care. Death rate from makeshift hospitals with shortage of staff and equipment will be higher. The shortage will increase as more staff die from the virus themselves. So far, 46 doctors have died in Italy. That doesn’t count nurses and janitorial staff. Imagine being in a tent full of beds, no heating or air conditioning, insufficient doctors and nurses and ventilators, not isolated from other patients‘ diseases. I hope it doesn’t come to that, but if it does, I think good home care is better if it‘s available. Furthermore, if you die in the hospital, you die alone. Family aren’t allowed to visit, and that fact alone might increase the death rate.
This is all bad news for me. If 6 million people die from this plague within the year, I don’t think Disney will be able to open even by Christmas. Between lost of work, lost of income and lost of loved ones, I don’t see many wanting (or be able to afford) to go to Disney World in the next months or years. And I really wanted DS4 to enjoy the kids waterslide at CBR while he’s still 4 years old. After this year, he will be too big for it.
Total cases: 9976
Total death: 169
Death rate: 169/9976=1.7%
South Korea have the most trustworthy data right now. They have done extensive testing, and their death rate has been kept low enough that their hospitals are not overwhelmed. The US hospitals are overwhelmed, so the US death rate will be higher, but I am doing an underestimate so that we assume that the US hospitals have as much success as Korea.
Expert projecting eventual infection rate worldwide: 50-70%
My belief: nearly 100% in developed countries such as US with high level of population traveling frequently and extensively.
US population: 327 million.
Korea death rate: 1.7 percent
My projected US death number by the end of this year (100% infection):
327 x 1.7% = 5.6 million
If we assume expert projection of 70% final infection rate:
327 x 70% x1.7% = 3.9 million
Current projected death numbers by the US government: 200 thousand.
I think the US is downplaying the death numbers to avoid causing panic, although the 200 thousand is probably already creeping people out. I did the above math because I like to know the real numbers and the whole truth; even if it’s unpleasant, it helps me face the music better. I don’t like to be surprised.
The average American knows 600 people. That means at the end of the year, everybody will know an average 600 x 1.7% = 10 people who died from the virus. If most of your acquaintances are old because you are old (age 60+), then the number of dead acquaintances you know will be more like 50 (assuming you don’t die yourself.) That’s what I tell my DH, being he is in the 60+ group and most of his friends are old, and he knows a lot of people.
This is an estimate assuming proper medical care. Death rate from makeshift hospitals with shortage of staff and equipment will be higher. The shortage will increase as more staff die from the virus themselves. So far, 46 doctors have died in Italy. That doesn’t count nurses and janitorial staff. Imagine being in a tent full of beds, no heating or air conditioning, insufficient doctors and nurses and ventilators, not isolated from other patients‘ diseases. I hope it doesn’t come to that, but if it does, I think good home care is better if it‘s available. Furthermore, if you die in the hospital, you die alone. Family aren’t allowed to visit, and that fact alone might increase the death rate.
This is all bad news for me. If 6 million people die from this plague within the year, I don’t think Disney will be able to open even by Christmas. Between lost of work, lost of income and lost of loved ones, I don’t see many wanting (or be able to afford) to go to Disney World in the next months or years. And I really wanted DS4 to enjoy the kids waterslide at CBR while he’s still 4 years old. After this year, he will be too big for it.
