Making lowball offers to match what is showing up on Fidelity?

[AnnaKristoff2013]

Yeah, but that was just a few weeks ago. I haven’t even closed yet. It’s not like it was months ago.

I’m just commenting about the brokers, I don’t believe they have the interest to list at high prices. They want to sell fast.

The difference between a few weeks ago and now is shocking. The market has/is crashing.

 

[davidhr]

Again guys. Yes, the market is different.

My point again is that the brokers, at least in my experience, are not the ones pushing the high prices. For me it was the opposite, they were pushing me to list at a lower price.

 

[tom1944]

Again guys. Yes, the market is different.

My point again is that the brokers, at least in my experience, are not the ones pushing the high prices. For me it was the opposite, they were pushing me to list at a lower price.

100% true
If they can convince you to list at a lower price there is a quicker sale and the commission is not significantly lower

Freakanomics had a section in the book explaining how common it is.

 

[sleepymouse]

Again guys. Yes, the market is different.

My point again is that the brokers, at least in my experience, are not the ones pushing the high prices. For me it was the opposite, they were pushing me to list at a lower price.

It is probably because the resale market has spoken, and the prices are too high. They don't want someone's contract just sitting there for months on their site.

 

[AstroBlasters]

The difference between a few weeks ago and now is shocking. The market has/is crashing.

See the following Fidelity average resale price report from 2016-2020:

https://www.fidelityrealestate.com/blog/2020-average-dvc-resale-price-per-point/

Prices could get a whole lot lower than they are now. Let me know when VGC get down to $150 like it was in 2018.

 

[chicagodisneyguy]

All it takes is a few people to get aggressive (or desperate) in their prices they offer. And once those prices start to trade, sites like this post it. Then buyers start to back off. We saw the opposite a few years ago where seemingly every other week the prices were going up $5-$10.

I think we will see a mild recession in the next year. But I think it will be short and not to the extent of 08 or COVID. I think if I was buying DVC I would definitely lowball now. I think what is lowball today will probably be avg in a month or two. But I don't think we'll see the plunging of DVC prices we saw following 2008 (although I kinda hope they do short term as I'd like to pick up about 100 more point).

 

[bravenyc]

I just put in an offer at asking for a great deal on BW ($113/pt) with 83 stacked points.

While I was tempted to wait a bit to see if things fall more - or if I could get a better UY with a similar deal - I did not want to chance that Disney starts to become more aggressive at ROFR. It will certainly be interesting to see what happens.

 

[Cfabar1]

Looking through the 2016-2020 prices is fascinating…

Could this be in part why they are struggling to sell through the other resorts? Difficult to say I’ll pay $217 for a resort that was selling on resale for $90 in 2020….

 

[Chy]

If DVC doesn't ROFR for a while we could really see a big drop.

 

[Cfabar1]

I just made an offer and we will see how they respond, if this contract doesn’t work out, that’s okay. I really do think in 3 months the market will be even slower than it is right now. Revenge travel is ending, Disney is upping hotel incentives, economy is slowing, debt is more expensive, so financing will be less tempting for people, etc.

The only offers I’d make right now:
1. Very aggressive offers on resale
2. If I really needed the points urgently and couldn’t find a resale, a small direct contract.

 

[bravenyc]

I just made an offer and we will see how they respond, if this contract doesn’t work out, that’s okay. I really do think in 3 months the market will be even slower than it is right now. Revenge travel is ending, Disney is upping hotel incentives, economy is slowing, debt is more expensive, so financing will be less tempting for people, etc.

The only offers I’d make right now:
1. Very aggressive offers on resale
2. If I really needed the points urgently and couldn’t find a resale, a small direct contract.

 

[bravenyc]

I just made an offer and we will see how they respond, if this contract doesn’t work out, that’s okay. I really do think in 3 months the market will be even slower than it is right now. Revenge travel is ending, Disney is upping hotel incentives, economy is slowing, debt is more expensive, so financing will be less tempting for people, etc.

The only offers I’d make right now:
1. Very aggressive offers on resale
2. If I really needed the points urgently and couldn’t find a resale, a small direct contract.

Do you think 150 pts at Boardwalk at $113 a point (with 83 stacked points) is aggressive enough?

 

[Cfabar1]

That sounds aggressive to me, but I don’t follow that resort that closely to be honest. From my glancing at it, it looks like that seller was very motivated to get out of the contract.

Also, I mostly use the board sponsor, which seems to be the most expensive…. I make offers, and they probably don’t like me, but what can you do.

As a point of reference, the lowest contract they currently have pp cost is $125, and it’s a 200 point contract!

 

[Chy]

With the board sponsor having 850 listings for sale, people are going to start dropping prices even more. No end in sight to price drops with no ROFR.

 

[luvdisneyland]

There is definitely a disconnect between what people on this board are paying and what many brokers are listing contracts for. I feel as if many brokers are trying to hold up the market and not having much success. By my count, there are currently over 2000 DVC contracts on the resale market. That tells me that they are overpriced.

I am sure it is not the broker, it is sellers who are not realistic in pricing ( just as there are some very unrealistic buyers). I priced mine to sell and it did. The same company had other listings priced higher and when I questioned why, they were candid and said that it is coming from the seller and they are still sitting there available. Why would a broker want overpriced listings, they only get commission when their contracts sell.

 

[luvdisneyland]

Yes… resale prices have a way to fall. Some buyers are starting to figure it out. And some sellers too… You have to remember the broker has a vested interest in the sales prices being higher, so they have little inclination to help you negotiate a good deal….

Reading through the sponsor’s email today… I found some interesting prices…


However, some other ones don’t seem too bad… I think the market is beginning to reset…

As a person who works in medical sales I can tell you that this is not true. Brokers only get paid when a contract sells, the difference in say $10 pp is minimal commission wise, esp. if it just sits. When I listed mine, I was not encouraged (in fact, the opposite) to list high. If you have never been in sales, I can see where that thought is comming from, but I assure you, people who work on commission do not want overpriced products, they want to be competitive.

 

[Leeesa]

Does anyone think this offer will be taken from ROFR. I sort of low balled not thinking they would accept and we could negotiate and they agreed. Now in ROFR a few days and thinking uggghh Disney is going to take it.

OKW $92.00 per point, $13,800, 150pt 22/150, 23/150, 24/150 i pay closing costs

 

[Sandisw]

Does anyone think this offer will be taken from ROFR. I sort of low balled not thinking they would accept and we could negotiate and they agreed. Now in ROFR a few days and thinking uggghh Disney is going to take it.

OKW $92.00 per point, $13,800, 150pt 22/150, 23/150, 24/150 i pay closing costs

Right now? I think you have a great chance!

 

[naman1221]

Does anyone think this offer will be taken from ROFR. I sort of low balled not thinking they would accept and we could negotiate and they agreed. Now in ROFR a few days and thinking uggghh Disney is going to take it.

OKW $92.00 per point, $13,800, 150pt 22/150, 23/150, 24/150 i pay closing costs

I have seen a ton of contracts go to ROFR at this price point but I don't think we have heard back yet on most of them. Given that Disney has been relatively quiet on the ROFR front, I think you're looking solid!

Good luck!

 

[Leeesa]

I have seen a ton of contracts go to ROFR at this price point but I don't think we have heard back yet on most of them. Given that Disney has been relatively quiet on the ROFR front, I think you're looking solid!

Good luck!

Thank you. I am hoping it goes through.