You know, my perception is that a lot of locals are over it. They are over the high crowds and price increases and simply did not renew their passes due to a fear of even worse crowds this summer, which obviously has backfired on Disney.
Disney has effectively priced people out at "full price." They can really only bring crowds with discount offers and special events nowadays. It seems abundantly clear that the vast majority of AP holders are Deluxe and lower, and without those guests, and at full price, people simply aren't coming.
They need to adjust their ticket pricing down about 20-25% The non AP tickets are outrageously expensive compared to the other theme parks in the area. I suspect Univesrsal, Knott's, Sea World, and Legoland are seeing larger crowds this summer as Disneyland has driven away a lot of potential visitors with steep pricing and a narrative that Star Wars land is the most amazing theme park expansion of all time (it's not) that everyone and his mom wants to come see.
I agree with this to an extent. I know my family used to be AP holders, but we had to drop our passes 2 years ago when it became apparent that the value was no longer there. Now, I was just at Disneyland on Sunday, so I haven't exactly stayed away, but here's the deal. For my family of 6 to go for 1 day to only 1 park, it was over $800 just for tickets. I happened to have a contract revision at work that left me with some extra money, but paying $800 for a single day isn't something we can do a lot. We recently went on a weeklong trip to the mountains for the same cost as a 3-day trip to Disneyland.
We only go once or twice per year now. We only took that extra trip because I was able to get a reservation for SWGE. Otherwise, we would have patiently waited until November. We're discussing only 1 trip next year or none at all. When it's wall to wall people, it's just not as much fun as it used to be. We still love it, but there are a lot of other things we love, too, like Knott's, where we could get season passes for everyone in our family for less than a single day at Disneyland. It may not be Disney quality, but they're getting better and better. And it is sort of nice to have money for other things so that our lives don't completely revolve around Disneyland as much as that hurts me to say.
From others I've spoken to who live within a 2 hour radius, it seems I'm not alone in my thinking. Maybe someday I'll be a millionaire and can afford 6 higher level APs again, but for now, my middle class salary just isn't appreciating Disney quite as much as it used to.
I still suspect crowds will pick up in the fall. They always do. Summer has actually been less crowded for several years now, but people don't believe any of us when we tell them that. I do think SWGE is a success having seen it firsthand (and it'll be even better after it's complete). But when you hear about openings like Pandora or WWOHP at Universal and the multi-hour waits people are still experiencing years later, there's definitely a factor of "will I get enough bang for my buck if I'm in line all day?". Now that people are starting to see that it's not as crowded as expected, they'll start making last minute plans. By July, I suspect it'll be at least as crowded as normal for this time of year.
