Is anyone else confused about yesterday's changes to the TP crowd calendar?

[jpkkld]

Our trip is coming up next month, and I'm confused about the heatmap at TP... yes, I know crowd calendars are useless now, and I know we should just expect wall-to-wall pretty much all the way through March, but can someone explain this?

One of our park days is marked a Level 10 day, and this heatmap was posted up to 2/23:


This is is the SAME DAY and the same Level 10 prediction, posted 2/24:


But this one is my favorite. Different day, also a 10, also posted 2/24:


(I hope I'm not violating any rules by posting these - I left out the actual days these apply to in case that's against the rules.)

I scrolled through and I see bizarre heatmaps. Days with red and dark orange labelled "8" and THE SAME DAY, different park, all green and yellow also labelled "8". This used to be pretty logical - lots of red = 9 & 10, lots of green = 3-5 (not that that means anything anymore).

I'm not changing any plans at this point. But I'm thoroughly confused how TP expects people to use their tools when they make no sense. A flat estimate of Level 6 or Level 10 is helpful, but to change the heatmaps so drastically and not change the Crowd Level... either there's a major glitch, or they're recalibrating their entire system to not show solid red every day for the next 6 months, or.... I don't know. Does anybody here know what's going on?

 

[holden]

To me it's further proof that crowd calendars are worthless.

 

[Jacq7414]

Where do you see these “heat maps”

 

[bigbabyblues]

You might ask on the forum at TP. I think things are so crazy right now that crowd calendars aren't going to help anything; the things they used to track and predict are all messed up.

 

[AnnabelleTheTalkingTree]

I honestly don't give crowd calendars a whole lot of weight. I DO use them in planning - mostly it just gives me a starting point for how to plan my park days, but I don't let it dictate much. Last time I used TP (which I love and am still subscribed to, btw), my dates were predicted to be very low crowd (like 2-4, maybe a few 5's most days for most parks). By the time my trip actually rolled around those numbers were up to mainly a bunch of 6's, 7's and a couple of 8's. I can't tell you the stress I felt each time I got an email from them increasing that crowd number. I picked parks to the best of my ability, but once those ADR's were in (this was 2019), I wasn't moving park days around bc of a crowd calendar. Trust me, we made out JUST fine and had a great trip. There was one day (our arrival day which landed on a Saturday and during a cheer competition) that felt a little insane, but that was one day out of ten.

Even though I do use the crowd calendars to a degree, mostly at this point I plan using common sense. Since we tend toward longer trips, we realized that leaving on a Monday and returning the Friday of the following week leaves us with only ONE weekend during an 11 night stay. We will go light on the parks those days to avoid the weekend crowds, make use of the extra morning and the deluxe evening hours, and usually head back to the resort at peak times.

 

[Kingoglow]

Why would you ask this here, instead of the TP forums?

 

[AnnabelleTheTalkingTree]

This thread got me curious so I went in to check out my latest predictions from TP and for my dates I found a few of the changes bizarre. Like MK went from a 4 to a 10 on two random weekdays, but another went down to a 2 from a 6.

 

[TheSouthernBelle]

Our trip is coming up next month, and I'm confused about the heatmap at TP... yes, I know crowd calendars are useless now, and I know we should just expect wall-to-wall pretty much all the way through March, but can someone explain this?

One of our park days is marked a Level 10 day, and this heatmap was posted up to 2/23:
View attachment 650056

This is is the SAME DAY and the same Level 10 prediction, posted 2/24:
View attachment 650057

But this one is my favorite. Different day, also a 10, also posted 2/24:
View attachment 650061

(I hope I'm not violating any rules by posting these - I left out the actual days these apply to in case that's against the rules.)

I scrolled through and I see bizarre heatmaps. Days with red and dark orange labelled "8" and THE SAME DAY, different park, all green and yellow also labelled "8". This used to be pretty logical - lots of red = 9 & 10, lots of green = 3-5 (not that that means anything anymore).

I'm not changing any plans at this point. But I'm thoroughly confused how TP expects people to use their tools when they make no sense. A flat estimate of Level 6 or Level 10 is helpful, but to change the heatmaps so drastically and not change the Crowd Level... either there's a major glitch, or they're recalibrating their entire system to not show solid red every day for the next 6 months, or.... I don't know. Does anybody here know what's going on?

are you saying the hourly crowd calendar changed throughout the day? I would guess that's just TP taking data and making new assumptions based on crowd movement. I use TP for planning but don't put much stock in crowd calendars, in normal times and especially now. I would not worry too much about hourly crowd predictors.

 

[jpkkld]

Thanks for your thoughts. First, no, I hadn't posted on the TP forum because... well, I didn't really know it was there. I've browsed the Lines app chat occasionally, but it's not a full featured forum. But I did find the TP forum and posted there too - it's pretty quiet over there. But I've always found the TP team to be very responsive in the past - so if I get any kind of answer from them, I'll post here!

My main question was - how can a crowd prediction be a 10, when the hourly crowd predictions are consistently light to moderate all day? Clearly something is off, and my guess is that the 10 is the correct part. Oh, how I hope I'm wrong!

And the corollary - why would TP be showing reds and dark oranges in the hourly map, then the very next day change it all to yellows and light orange? Like Annabelle points out, the numbers are just gibberish. Even if you don't trust them and won't use them... it's bizarre.

I do like the heatmaps - they're handy for deciding how early I may like to book a lunch ADR or decide if the wait times after dinner are worth heading back to the park after an afternoon break. For the way my family tours, it can also help us pick parks based on the hours we'll be there, not necessarily on the overall crowd level for the day. I know they're not useful right now, and I'm not making any decisions based on them. Just noodling around on the TP site.

Don't get me wrong, I love TP and I'll happilly use their products. If nothing else, I trust their lines app for park wait times, and that makes the subscription worth every penny.

 

[T.G.I.Friday]

I agree with you. In looking at the calendar earlier this week, I noticed that the park was an ‘8’, but I didn’t get how times would be green. But I looked after you posted, and now all of my days are shades of orange. So I’m thinking that they just updated the calendar to be more accurate.

 

[ezma]

Why would you ask this here, instead of the TP forums?

Maybe it’s because they get good advice and trust this forum... one should not be ostracized just for asking

 

[nelsonkg]

Maybe it’s because they get good advice and trust this forum... one should not be ostracized just for asking

I was thinking the same thing! I love this forum

 

[jpkkld]

I agree with you. In looking at the calendar earlier this week, I noticed that the park was an ‘8’, but I didn’t get how times would be green. But I looked after you posted, and now all of my days are shades of orange. So I’m thinking that they just updated the calendar to be more accurate.

Thanks - I'll keep checking back, of course. My days were all very red and orange, and now they're a lot more yellow and green. If the overall levels get lowered to match, I will be thrilled! Unlikely, but you never know. For now, I'm still assuming they'll be 9 and 10 days and I'll structure our touring for high crowds.

 

[ENJDisneyFan]

Where do you see these “heat maps”

I believe you need a TP subscription.

 

[Jacq7414]

I believe you need a TP subscription.

I have one

 

[T.G.I.Friday]

It’s not easy for me to wrap my mind around. Green hours on a red park day just don’t add up for me. And then I’m sure the hours changing by so much will alter the heat maps, too. I think I need to do what works for us keeping all the old usual tricks in mind and accept that it is what it is - otherwise, I will be disappointed if a crowded park isn’t empty at 6PM because it was green on Touring Plans.

 

[OwnedByRetrievers]

I have one

Same. I don't see them either.

 

[sarac87]

It’s on the Crowd Calendar page (select Walt Disney World then Crows Calendar.) I don’t have a subscription, and I see it, there are just gaps in dates.

 

[PrincessDJC]

I had our dates in May as 6 and 7. Then they jumped to 9 and 10. Now they are back down. ?????? I’m soooooo confused

 

[Kingoglow]

Maybe it’s because they get good advice and trust this forum... one should not be ostracized just for asking

I had our dates in May as 6 and 7. Then they jumped to 9 and 10. Now they are back down. ?????? I’m soooooo confused

My point is the TP site would have the insight on the data because they own it, It would be a more trusted source in the matter.