Hurricane Irma?

[wonder whisper]

Noteworthy update from Underground Weather blog:

"Based on recent ensemble models (in which a large number of parallel runs are carried out to simulate uncertainty in the atmosphere), it is still possible that Irma could take a south-to-north inland track across the Florida peninsula, or a track that stays just east of Florida’s East Coast. However, it appears most likely that Irma will hug the state's East Coast from south to north, potentially moving inland over some sections. This type of track is far different from those of Hurricane Andrew (1992) and Katrina (2005), which moved from east to west across the Miami metro area. A south-to-north track would affect a much larger part of this elongated metroplex."

Standard disclaimer: note this is a discussion of possibilities, not a definitive prediction.

 

[bobbie68]

Do you have a link? I have the worst time finding this track. Thanks!

https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/905858995700846594

 

[tmcd1126]

After 3 and half hours on hold my trip is officially cancelled. She wouldn't give me a cancellation confirmation # saying that my reservation # will remain active and I can reference t with any other questions but she will be sending an email.

 

[bobbie68]

The link I just put up is from the other thread on this board from the moderators.

 

[ITALIANNYC]

https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/905858995700846594

This scares the hell out of me

 

[wonder whisper]

Watching the weather channel. The euro model just came in from this morning and it moved slightly west with the storm going up the spine of the state. US model still has it to the east. Praying it's more east.

Weather Underground blog argues for a variation on the Euro model that has Irma hugging the east coast of Florida, with some on and off movement inland.

Bottom line: there is still no meaningful consensus among the experts on where Irma will go. They simply don't know and we will have to wait until sometime Saturday/Sunday to see what actually happens (at which point people will immediately claim whatever their preferred model is accurately predicted it).

 

[ekidwell0001]

After 3 and half hours on hold my trip is officially cancelled. She wouldn't give me a cancellation confirmation # saying that my reservation # will remain active and I can reference t with any other questions but she will be sending an email.

So glad you finally got through, there is hope!!! I'm at 3 hours 15 minutes

 

[laurabelle]

European model isn't looking good.
To find out if you need to evacuate and your route Florida Division of Emergency Management

 

[Jasten]

Well, I finally called it. I was driving home from the super market with a bunch of hurricane snacks and supplies to pack and I couldn't shake this feeling of how ridiculous I was being. Would it really be a vacation? I don't want my DD's first time to be under these conditions. I'm in the middle of canceling our trip. So far ive got the resort and plane tickets done. Working on mnsshp now. Its absolutely heartbreaking to unwind all of the work I did to plan this trip.

Be safe everyone. Some things are just more important in life.

 

[Mrs. Magic]

FYI... if anyone is planning on driving to WDW and Will be coming through SC, our governor has ordered that the lanes on I 26 Will be reversed beginning Saturday morning… if you were planning on making your journey to Orlando that way, you may need to choose an alternate route

 

[HarperLeigh]

We had the same dates.......we were able to get a saturday morning flight - thought that was going to be the hardest thing - I was wrong. Trying to get ANY room at disney for saturday night was impossible. Only 3 resorts showed availability - and contemporary was $1200 for the 1 night........ I didn't think we'd have an issue adding 1 night to our reservation . Now we are in 1 hotel for sat night and our regular hotel for the rest...it'll be interesting to see how they get us from hotel 1 to hotel 2 on the day the storm is supposed to hit.

You'll have to get yourself to your second hotel. Disney will only transfer your luggage from resort to resort, not people.

 

[wonder whisper]

OMG. I'm at 3 and a half and every time it loops back to It's A Small World I go a little bit crazier.

It could be even worse:

 

[Rocketeer53]

We are supposed to arrive on Tuesday, driving down from St Louis. We are going to arrive at a family members house in on the LA/FL border and wait until it looks clear and then drive through to Orlando. We are there for 11 days so if I have to wait till Wednesday just to be safe so be it. Good luck to all who will be riding the storm out on property.

 

[ulcards99]

I've been lurking this thread all week and made an account just for this. We were scheduled to drive down late Saturday night (14 hr drive) to stay 9/10-9/16. Because we have 2 younger kids, one with a near-phobia of storms, we decided to reschedule for 9/23-9/30. I waited on hold for over 6 hours, but finally got through to guest services and the CM was able to switch everything over and keep my room discount. He also told me to wait until after the storm passes to call and reschedule my MNSSHP tickets that we have for Tuesday.
I know most people don't have 6 hours to wait, but just wanted to maybe be able to reassure someone that they didn't forget you, even if it really REALLY seems that way. Good luck to everyone, whether they're going, staying, postponing, canceling, or living in the middle of this mess.

Yes, it took me 6 hours today to get everything squared away. I was able to switch my dates from 9/9-9/16 to 9/28-10/5, and Guest Services was able to apply my AP discount. It took me an hour to get a CM on the phone, and then she transferred me to Guest Services. At 5 hours and 56 minutes, Guest Services picked up. From there, it only took about 10 minutes.

 

[hollylu1016]

I'm currently on hold...going on 2 hours now. I can clearly see that lots of you have waited 3 times that.

My plan was just to have them reschedule us for 10/22, which I currently have saved in my cart 1 click away from being set.

Do I just buy the new trip now, and cancel whenever it's my turn with a cast member, or hope that what I want is still available in however many hours??

 

[need2travel]

I know everyone is trying to keep up with the latest hurricane coverage. CNN is doing live updates of Irma's path approx. every 15-30 min-European & American models of it's path. Good luck to everyone! Stay safe!!!

 

[HarperLeigh]

Yes, it took me 6 hours today to get everything squared away. I was able to switch my dates from 9/9-9/16 to 9/28-10/5, and Guest Services was able to apply my AP discount. It took me an hour to get a CM on the phone, and then she transferred me to Guest Services. At 5 hours and 56 minutes, Guest Services picked up. From there, it only took about 10 minutes.

 

[Eastern]

I'm currently on hold...going on 2 hours now. I can clearly see that lots of you have waited 3 times that.

My plan was just to have them reschedule us for 10/22, which I currently have saved in my cart 1 click away from being set.

Do I just buy the new trip now, and cancel whenever it's my turn with a cast member, or hope that what I want is still available in however many hours??

I would buy it now.

 

[scrappinmom]

It's posted here...http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-flight-cost-cap-hurricane-irma-20170907-story.html

Operations will cease at Orlando International Airport at 2 p.m. on Saturday and airline officials said they will continue to monitor conditions at other airports in Florida.

I'm pretty sure the article meant that American was shutting down IT'S operations at MCO at 2pm on Saturday. The airport may be open but the airline can still pull the trigger - they have to look at their inventory of planes & where they might be coming from or going to.

 

[TinkerBelle_325]

Leading up to Hurricane Matthew there was a lot of back and forth among the models, for the most part they kept bringing it more and more west towards the east coast of Florida. At one point within the 24-48 hour mark it looked like it was going to make landfall south of Cape Canaveral if I recall correctly. And then as it came up the coast it wobbled out to sea about 20-30 miles.

What does this mean? That we can't rely so heavily on the models and in particular on an individual model run. Are there trends to observe? Yes. But the NHC won't completely change their forecast track based on one run of the EURO, GFS etc...

At the moment, the official and most reliable track would be that provided by the NHC, which has Irma skirting up the east coast of Florida. at 5pm (or actually between 4:30 and 5:00) the NHC will release it's next forecast update.

Until then I am thinking positive thoughts and hoping that Irma takes the course that will result in the least possible damage for all in her path.