Hurricane Dorian FINALLY moving - updates pg 10

[ScubaCat]

We flew in a day early before Irma and there were about 15 people on our full size JetBlue plane.

Are you still keeping Tuesday? We had a 2:20 pm flight out of Newark on Wednesday and I just moved it to Thursday morning.

Normally I would have rebooked already but we're bringing some other family with us and one person has firm dates due to work. So, I'm just rolling with it until there's an announcement. Originally it was coming through Sunday, now Tuesday/Wednesday, and even that could get pushed back. If the airport ends up closing Tuesday evening, we'd make it in and just have to weather the storm at BCV vs. being stuck at home and losing half the trip.

Basically, from my experience (and I certainly have some), any change I make with the information available now is only likely to make things worse, especially with 8 people. Also, while flight availability becomes tricky, it's also very fluid. I've found refreshing the airline web site or app is pretty effective since people are constantly changing. (And us DVC owners certainly have the requisite experience "stalking" web sites for availability. )

 

[Sparty1833]

Im on the fence about cancelling, prob still going to go. Fly to MCO tomorrow for an 8 night stay. If things close, we still have time to enjoy the parks.

 

[DisneyDeb83]

We are scheduled for early morning flight out of PHL on Friday. Earlier in the week I figured we would be fine by then, with Dorian expected to arrive Sunday or Monday. Now with it looking more like Wednesday I am thinking MCO won’t be open early Friday for our 8 am arrival.
Southwest is now allowing changes only thru Thursday. For $16 more per ticket, I can adjust flight to Saturday afternoon. I hate to lose Friday, as I have one night booked thru DVC rental before moving over to OKW on Saturday on my sisters points. But I think it may be the smarter choice. I’m afraid if I don’t do it soon I may have to take a flight with multiple stops.
Any thoughts? TIA!!!

 

[JimMIA]

We are scheduled for early morning flight out of PHL on Friday. Earlier in the week I figured we would be fine by then, with Dorian expected to arrive Sunday or Monday. Now with it looking more like Wednesday I am thinking MCO won’t be open early Friday for our 8 am arrival.
Southwest is now allowing changes only thru Thursday. For $16 more per ticket, I can adjust flight to Saturday afternoon. I hate to lose Friday, as I have one night booked thru DVC rental before moving over to OKW on Saturday on my sisters points. But I think it may be the smarter choice. I’m afraid if I don’t do it soon I may have to take a flight with multiple stops.
Any thoughts? TIA!!!

The next update from the NHC comes out in about an hour. That may give us a little better idea of the timing of things, and I'll be posting the info here.

 

[bobbie68]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1167534285642981378

This is from the Dorian thread in the Theme parks.

 

[ScubaCat]

We are scheduled for early morning flight out of PHL on Friday. Earlier in the week I figured we would be fine by then, with Dorian expected to arrive Sunday or Monday. Now with it looking more like Wednesday I am thinking MCO won’t be open early Friday for our 8 am arrival.
Southwest is now allowing changes only thru Thursday. For $16 more per ticket, I can adjust flight to Saturday afternoon. I hate to lose Friday, as I have one night booked thru DVC rental before moving over to OKW on Saturday on my sisters points. But I think it may be the smarter choice. I’m afraid if I don’t do it soon I may have to take a flight with multiple stops.
Any thoughts? TIA!!!

I'd hold off. They keep extending that a day at a time. If there's any chance you'll get canceled, you'll be able to rebook for free we'll in advance.

 

[cdoc29]

FEMA is activating Regional Search and Rescue teams and positioning them near Florida for rapid response. That should tell you if heading down to the area to ride out the storm is a good idea. I urge everyone to reconsider staying or heading down to the area beforehand despite what you may think or have heard about how "safe" Disney is too ride out a storm.

https://www.facebook.com/plugins/post.php?href=https://www.facebook.com/vatf1/posts/410883772882777&width=500

 

[DisneyDeb83]

I'd hold off. They keep extending that a day at a time. If there's any chance you'll get canceled, you'll be able to rebook for free we'll in advance.

I’m just afraid that the non stops will be booked with everyone making changes, especially since MCO is shutting down Monday. Though I suppose a lot of people may be canceling outright.

 

[JimMIA]

GOOD NEWS!

As I thought (and hoped) it would, the forecast track of Adrian has shifted to the right -- AWAY from Orlando. The storm is still going to affect Orlando, but it looks like Orlando will be on the weaker side of the hurricane.

Here's the map:



Obviously, things could change, but this is a very good sign. The system had been trending to the left for a couple of days, but it moved back to the right this morning and now confirmed that move with another move in the preferred direction.

This is still a very dangerous storm, so keep an eye on it.

 

[cdoc29]

AMTRAK has suspended service including the Auto Train to Florida starting tomorrow (Sat) through Monday

 

[JimMIA]

If you're wondering where the Tuesday and Wednesday dots are, Tuesday is right on top of Vero Beach (as a Category 4) and Wednesday is Jacksonville.

 

[Bjkandma]

According to Channel 8 out of Tampa. Orlando Airport will cease operations at 2 am Monday as a measure of caution.

 

[Woodview]

I would STAY with your mother at all costs ... ALL FAMILY in one place .

All of your family should try and book a hotel say at Wesley Chapel ( Near Tampa ) NOW Saturday

There will be NO cars on roads ......,. TOLL charges are waived at this time .

Stick together &

 

[Southernmiss]

National Hurricane Center still has low confidence in any of the tracks. This storm is still to far away to predict.

Saying one or 2 model runs is good news is very premature at best. And gives false info to those not accustomed to the unpredictability of storms and how quickly things can and do change, even when the storm is close to shore.

 

[JimMIA]

National Hurricane Center still has low confidence in any of the tracks. This storm is still to far away to predict.

Saying one or 2 model runs is good news is very premature at best. And gives false info to those not accustomed to the unpredictability of storms and how quickly things can and do change, even when the storm is close to shore.

Thanks, but it's not that simplistic.

Two consecutive shifts of ALL of the models in the opposite direction they were going, plus two consecutive changes in the NHC forecast track in the same direction means something. They especially mean something when they agree with what the NHC and other sources have been saying for a week about the much bigger picture of the entire Atlantic meteorological landscape that influences the path of the storm.

I simplify things for easier understanding, rather than discussing technical stuff from the NHC and several other sources which have a bearing on the macro forces affecting the movement of the storm. Too much "inside baseball" just confuses people.

Obviously things can and do change. Everybody knows that, and I say it in almost every post.

I'm sure all of our readers are smart enough to realize that hurricane forecasting is an inexact science applied in a fluid situation. I'm confident they won't be led astray

 

[Shelly F - Ohio]

I’m just afraid that the non stops will be booked with everyone making changes, especially since MCO is shutting down Monday. Though I suppose a lot of people may be canceling outright.

yes since SWA has allowed people to rebook their flights for free to any day and any flight with no increase in airfare price. We paid $60 for our flight but I was able to move to a flight for free that was currently being advertised at $237 at the time I made the change. Normally I would have had to pay the different in the fare price but I was not charged anything. Since Aug 28 a lot of those flights are pretty well booked by now.

 

[seashoreCM]

When the airport announces it will close at such and such a time, is closure that soon or sooner definite, or can the airport change plans to stay open longer and airlines not cancel as many flights if conditions permit?

 

[JaxDad]

I understand this is a Disney site, but it may be a little insensitive to put “GOOD NEWS” in the thread title, until this beast is safely out to sea with no landfall.

 

[Bianca and Bernard]

I understand this is a Disney site, but it may be a little insensitive to put “GOOD NEWS” in the thread title, until this beast is safely out to sea with no landfall.

Especially for those of us still in the path of this thing.

 

[Welsh_Dragon]

I am so sorry for asking trivial questions when so many are worried about their personal safety.
My son and I are due to fly out for three weeks with BA on Wednesday to meet with my daughter who is just finishing working at Camp Lindenmere in Pennsylvania and is trying to make her way EWR to Orlando (she has JetBlue flights booked on Tuesday, her original scheduled flight which she has held onto, and also on Wednesday, a refundable flight).
Do you think I should book a Newark airport hotel for her on Tuesday and Wednesday, just in case? She is capable and sensible but, well, I am a Mother, I worry.

Also, if our BA flight on Wednesday is delayed, will Alamo at MCO hold onto our hire car until we arrive or treat us as a no show?

Daughter is planning to use DME, so the plan is for me to pick up the car at MCO.

Once I know that my daughter is safely ensconced somewhere, particularly if she can get to AKL, I will be very relieved. In my head AKL in a hurricane is safer than young lady alone in NY.

Stay safe everyone.