How Often Is 7-Month Window a No-Go?

[Disney Dad ADL]

You folks are the best, and have been very helpful. So, I'm concluding since we go to Hilton Head often, and WDW less often, and since I would be happy whatever WDW DVC resort I would get at the 7-month window, and don't really mind if it's a GV, combo of other villas, then I would be smart to purchase points at Hilton Head?

Am I also understanding that it may actually be more difficult to book HH at the 7-month window than WDW resorts, since we vacation in June or July most every year? So, if I want to be a true cheapskate and buy points at Vero Beach, then I may find it difficult to get my ideal villa(s) at HH at 7 months?

Vero Beach is actually deceptively expensive. You have to consider the annual dues when determining cost. It's $8.08 per point, compared to ~$5.43 per point at SSR and ~$6.80 at HHI. You may save $30 pp up front vs SSR, but in 10 years that savings will be eaten up by the annual dues. I'm guessing virtually every other DVC will be cheaper than VB on a per point basis over the long run, even VGF (though I haven't actually done the math, so take it with a grain of salt). SSR is definitely the cheapest though, so "cheaping out" would actually be SSR, not VB, if you want to go the low cost route.

I think it's a good idea to buy at HHI if that's your favorite resort, maybe enough points to go every other year (in other words, 1/2 the number of points you need for each trip). If you like DVC and you find difficulty getting into WDW at 7 months, you can purchase an add on in the future at the WDW resort of your choice.

 

[Supplanter]

You folks are the best, and have been very helpful. So, I'm concluding since we go to Hilton Head often, and WDW less often, and since I would be happy whatever WDW DVC resort I would get at the 7-month window, and don't really mind if it's a GV, combo of other villas, then I would be smart to purchase points at Hilton Head?

Am I also understanding that it may actually be more difficult to book HH at the 7-month window than WDW resorts, since we vacation in June or July most every year? So, if I want to be a true cheapskate and buy points at Vero Beach, then I may find it difficult to get my ideal villa(s) at HH at 7 months?

Hilton head is more difficult to book (potentially) because its only one hotel with whatever number of rooms available at any given date. In disney world, you've got like 8 dvc resorts with 2 of them (saratoga springs and old key west) that are huge and almost always have day of availability.
If you do decide to cheap out, In the long run saratoga springs is by far the cheapest. It's got a lot of years left on the contracts, its a relatively low price per point to purchase and the annual dues are among the lowest available. Otherwise, Hilton head would be a good option for you

 

[Deb & Bill]

If you think you will want a Grand Villa, you'll want to buy a resort that has them. They can be hard to get at seven months out. Especially if you want them for a full week. But don't plan on "day of" availability as Supplanter stated. That's not going to happen for the number of villas you will need with the large group you plan to house. A day or two, yes, for one villa (probably a one bedroom - studios go first, then two bedrooms).

Buy VB is that is where you plan to stay. Otherwise buy HHI because that's where it seems you want to stay in the summer months. It can be hard to book HHI during summer months at seven months out.

 

[Dean]

VB will be more expensive long term unless you get a subsided contract. As for availability, it will vary but once you get to needing more than one villa, it gets more complicated. It really depends on when and how flexible you are. If you're OK at SSR, OKW and AKV for ANY view then anything will likely do most of the time but you might need to use the wait list. One problem with 2 villas is you might get one but not both and the 3 BR are more difficult AND more expensive. I'd go in thinking a 2 BR and one or two 1 BR's and plan accordingly with costs and points then if it works for two 2BR villas, all the better. For HH summer, you'll likely need to own there if it's mid June to mid August.

 

[mustinjourney]

I found a spreadsheet sometime ago on here that had the calculations all done out, with the assumption of a 3% increase on MFs across the board and the assumption that you sell your membership after 10 or 15 years (can't remember which). Needless to say, SSR was the best. VB was pretty far down the list. Yes, it's cheaper up front -- but when you go to sell it in the future -- you will get 50% less than the other contracts. The MFs eat you alive on that contract.

Doing some simple math and not taking into account any time value of money -- think about the following:

VB expires in 2042. Therefore there are only 26 years to go. So that $40 per point purchase is about $1.54 per year. MFs are $8 per year. So you're looking at $9.54 per year.

VGF expires 2064. Even at $145 per point, that is $3.02 per point. MFs are $5.71 right now...for a total of $8.73 a point.

As such, you're spending $0.81 per point each year more for VF than VGF.

SSR expires 2054. At $85 a point, that is $2.24 a point. Mfs are $5.44, so your total is $7.68 a point per year.

Yes -- this doesn't take into account any type of discount factors -- but it also doesn't take into account the different in money you'd recoup if you resold after some amount of years, which would help offset the discount factor error.

This is why SSR is atop of everyone's list for best value if you are planning on doing 7 month ressies.

 

[CMNJ]

I found a spreadsheet sometime ago on here that had the calculations all done out, with the assumption of a 3% increase on MFs across the board and the assumption that you sell your membership after 10 or 15 years (can't remember which). Needless to say, SSR was the best. VB was pretty far down the list. Yes, it's cheaper up front -- but when you go to sell it in the future -- you will get 50% less than the other contracts. The MFs eat you alive on that contract.

Doing some simple math and not taking into account any time value of money -- think about the following:

VB expires in 2042. Therefore there are only 26 years to go. So that $40 per point purchase is about $1.54 per year. MFs are $8 per year. So you're looking at $9.54 per year.

VGF expires 2056. Even at $145 per point, that is $3.02 per point. MFs are $5.71 right now...for a total of $8.73 a point.

As such, you're spending $0.81 per point each year more for VF than VGF.

SSR expires 2054. At $85 a point, that is $2.24 a point. Mfs are $5.44, so your total is $7.68 a point per year.

Yes -- this doesn't take into account any type of discount factors -- but it also doesn't take into account the different in money you'd recoup if you resold after some amount of years, which would help offset the discount factor error.

This is why SSR is atop of everyone's list for best value if you are planning on doing 7 month ressies.

I didn't check your math but did you do the VGF based on a 2056 expiration or 2064? It actually expires in 2064 with the last point allotment coming in 2063.

 

[mustinjourney]

I didn't check your math but did you do the VGF based on a 2056 expiration or 2064? It actually expires in 2064 with the last point allotment coming in 2063.

I actually did 2064 (48 years). So the math is right, but for some reason I typed the year wrong.

Thanks for catching.

 

[CMNJ]

I actually did 2064 (48 years). So the math is right, but for some reason I typed the year wrong.

Thanks for catching.

No problem-I figured the math was probably right (seems it would be higher for the earlier exp date) but didn't want to confuse anyone who didn't know VGF expiration date