How long before DVC and all of WDW is shut again.

[dragonflymom]

My prediction is that by Thanksgiving most of this will be behind us and only international travel bans (especially from China) will remain for most of 2021.

I think it is other countries now that fear U.S. travelers. Or is your China reference a political dig

 

[xuxa777]

As the "Will disney opening be delayed" thread is moot, this thread was due. Prediction this thread will last longer since it is open ended.

 

[heynowirv]

Disney will not close. A vast majority of new cases are young. The death rate in Florida is one of the lowest in the country. It is not the number of cases to watch, it is the number of cases in ICU that is important. The real problem in Florida is they have allowed elective surgeries and the great number of catch up elective surgeries are taking up a great number of ICU beds. So if the Covid cases get worse those ICU beds are not available. How many people realize that every time you go to a Hospital for treatment of anything, they test you for Covid. People are testing positive that have no systems.

Most post-op ICU stays are 2 days or less. Yes the surgeries have an effect but that's not the whole picture.

 

[CLE2WDW]

I think it is other countries now that fear U.S. travelers. Or is your China reference a political dig

Not a political dig just more so a hedge by the US against future virus transport. China was a very logical starting point to a pandemic given their incredibly compact living conditions in highly overpopulated cities combined with poor hygiene and lifestyle. I firmly believe there will be future viruses that stem from China and it’s up to the US and other developed countries to put mitigation strategies in place now before the next outbreak. I’m not saying outbreaks couldn’t start elsewhere it’s just more likely to stem from China.

 

[kboo]

The NYC version of the virus came from Europe: https://www.mountsinai.org/about/ne...are-primarily-from-european-and-us-sources-pr

 

[dragonflymom]

Not a political dig just more so a hedge by the US against future virus transport. China was a very logical starting point to a pandemic given their incredibly compact living conditions in highly overpopulated cities combined with poor hygiene and lifestyle. I firmly believe there will be future viruses that stem from China and it’s up to the US and other developed countries to put mitigation strategies in place now before the next outbreak. I’m not saying outbreaks couldn’t start elsewhere it’s just more likely to stem from China.

I would caution targeting any one specific country if the goal is truly about planning for the future as virus can originate anywhere...think Ebola, MERS.

Also, what is your source for the "poor hygiene and lifestyle" comment? Not trying to be argumentative, but I worry that this kind of stereotype fuels anti-Asian sentiments and xenophobia.

 

[mistysue]

I'm expecting our government to keep pretending it's not happening, because apparently if we pretend it's not there everything is fine. At this point, I think it's crazy to expect Disney to close to protect people when everything else is open and people want to go. If someone wants to go put themselves in danger, at some point they are a corporation and can't sacrifice themselves so everyone's money goes to competitors instead.
The businesses that voluntarily took extra measures only got hurt more. Nobody is thanking them, but their competitors who were less responsible are now doing better than they are. Universal opened and everyone sat around talking about how they are happy to go there instead.

 

[Simba's Mom]

They are concerned about how viable a vaccine is too now. It may require boosters quite often (yearly like the Flu shot? More? Unknown at this point). But it looks increasingly like a measles-type vaccine is unlikely.

I don't see why anyone should have a problem with a yearly vaccine, like the flu vaccine is. It's a virus, like the flu is, and mutates. So I see people going in and getting the flu shot in one arm, covid shot in the other. And some day, maybe 10 years from now or more, they'll be combined so you get one yearly flu-covid shot. That's my theory (or hope).
Meantime, I don't see Disney closing either. Closing and reopening is much too costly.

 

[4Ds4Diz]

There are scientists who dispute this. Apparently the antibody tests referred to in the article you posted do not look for T-cell immunity which appears to be much more prevalent. It is mind blowing to me how this article from a reputable publication does not mention this topic, even in an attempt to dispute it. This T-cell discussion has been around for awhile too. Here is an article about it.
https://reason.com/2020/07/01/covid...han-antibody-tests-suggest-say-2-new-studies/

The Lancet has already been called out earlier this year for reports using pretty sketchy doctors and labs data. Not sure they are the most reliable source for accurate reporting.

https://thefederalist.com/2020/06/0...ne-study-used-by-media-to-attack-trump-inbox/
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-hydroxychloroquine-idUSKBN23B31W
Stay on top of the news on this virus, read multiple sites, dont just rely on TV news to get all your info on this. There is some pretty interesting information out there that brings some perspective to this and, at least for me, stops the panic you see out there.

Stay well!

 

[jocon]

We'll be fine in either November or January depending on other things.

No truer thing has been said...

 

[AquaDame]

I am sad to say I cant see how disney can reopen . They shut down before virus was an issue in Florida . Now it seems like FLorida has no choice but to shut down again. Anyone have more optimistic thoughts??

I wouldn't call it optimistic but at this point I don't see them shutting back down. Cats out of the bag everywhere in this country and despite that no one is slowing the train down. The powers that be don't seem to care, and Disney has made it plain with the contrast between California and Florida that only a state mandated closure would keep them shut. I shudder to think how bad it would have to get for them to make the decision on their own.

We'll be fine in either November or January depending on other things.

No truer thing has been said...

Disagree. Funny thing about viruses... they don't care who is in charge. May the odds be ever in your favor.

 

[sethschroeder]

There are scientists who dispute this. Apparently the antibody tests referred to in the article you posted do not look for T-cell immunity which appears to be much more prevalent. It is mind blowing to me how this article from a reputable publication does not mention this topic, even in an attempt to dispute it. This T-cell discussion has been around for awhile too. Here is an article about it.
https://reason.com/2020/07/01/covid...han-antibody-tests-suggest-say-2-new-studies/

I just want to put it out there but based on research I saw previously (some was posted in another threat) T-Cells that react specifically to COVID-19 can help reduce symptoms but it does not make you immune in the sense that you won't even be infected.

So while it helps that one person it doesn't actually allow herd immunity occur since you are still spreading the disease.

 

[sethschroeder]

The NYC version of the virus came from Europe: https://www.mountsinai.org/about/ne...are-primarily-from-european-and-us-sources-pr

So correct but not correct. The virus all came from the same location (China) it just happens to have moved across the global differently.

https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global
China -> WA and China -> Europe -> NY has been known since March timeframe.

 

[sethschroeder]

Again I see 0 chance they close again for the full state. They might put in more restrictions but nothing is shutting back down at this point.

Look at this:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
You want to look at Daily Cases/Deaths and then toggle on the 7 day average. What would need to happen is a drastic spike from deaths.

Distance, cleaning, and masks is the way to go. I stated before that if you shutdown it better be for 6+ months because nothing is going to change and we are better off being open now to try and find the correct balance to restrictions prior to flu season instead of trying to reopen during flu season.

 

[Darklord77]

Stay on top of the news on this virus, read multiple sites, dont just rely on TV news to get all your info on this. There is some pretty interesting information out there that brings some perspective to this and, at least for me, stops the panic you see out there.

So true. This virus happening during a presidential election year has been the worst case scenario. With different media sites pulling so far to each corner it makes it hard to figure out what's legit and what is just selective reporting. Just this past week I checked out one major media site and it had a half a dozen stories about Covid on the front page. Information in one report contradicted other reports on the same site. The media is the main cause of the panic surrounding this in my opinion.

 

[kboo]

So correct but not correct. The virus all came from the same location (China) it just happens to have moved across the global differently.

China -> WA and China -> Europe -> NY has been known since March timeframe.

Was reacting more to the comment upthread about expecting more viruses out of China, that also led to this comment -

I would caution targeting any one specific country if the goal is truly about planning for the future as virus can originate anywhere...think Ebola, MERS.

Also, what is your source for the "poor hygiene and lifestyle" comment? Not trying to be argumentative, but I worry that this kind of stereotype fuels anti-Asian sentiments and xenophobia.

 

[sethschroeder]

Was reacting more to the comment upthread about expecting more viruses out of China, that also led to this comment -

Understood

 

[moericus]

Disagree. Funny thing about viruses... they don't care who is in charge. May the odds be ever in your favor.

Viruses don't. People do.

 

[4Ds4Diz]

So true. This virus happening during a presidential election year has been the worst case scenario. With different media sites pulling so far to each corner it makes it hard to figure out what's legit and what is just selective reporting. Just this past week I checked out one major media site and it had a half a dozen stories about Covid on the front page. Information in one report contradicted other reports on the same site. The media is the main cause of the panic surrounding this in my opinion.

I couldn't agree more with regards to the media and politics. Here in NJ you will see a statistic of 53 deaths reported for July 9th. Only 5, yes that is correct 5 deaths occurred in the past 24 hours. They are now going back and adding confirmed deaths, via test results or death certificates, from as far back as March. 53 deaths sounds a lot more scary than 5, giving the wrong impression of the actual state of things. In the press conference they state it could take a year and a half before the numbers are all validated and returned. I believe this is done to drive the fear/panic and to allow governors to continue the lockdowns. You really need to get down into the weeds and read from many sources before you panic. I have become so disenfranchised due the numbers and shell game being played.

Stay well my friends!

 

[AdamsMum]

I don't think they will close again. Once people have experienced the isolation of lockdown and then had restrictions eased... well it's not easy to put the toothpaste back in the tube. Universal has been open for a month and we haven't heard any rumblings about them closing back down. Let's hope it goes well for Disney, cast members and guests alike.